JFE Holdings (5411) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.28T
• Dividend Yield: 4.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.84M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -8.07%
• EPS Growth: -41.42%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 62,218
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 639,438,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,695,720
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,839,646
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,088.01
• Price Target Upside: -2.27% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,506.00 ▲(17.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (stable balance sheet and positive cash generation) and strong technical trend signals, partly offset by overbought momentum indicators and a relatively high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified Business Mix

JFE's combination of steel manufacturing and engineering/construction services creates durable revenue diversification. The engineering segment smooths project-backed cash flows versus commodity-exposed steel sales, supporting steadier group performance across cycles and enabling cross-selling and long-term customer ties.

Manageable Leverage & Equity Base

A debt-to-equity of 0.70 and near 45% equity ratio indicate a conservative capital structure for a capital-intensive steel group. This provides financial flexibility to fund capex, service cycles, and pursue strategic projects without immediate refinancing stress, enhancing resilience over the medium term.

Strong Cash Generation

Operating cash generation materially exceeds net income and FCF covers earnings, showing effective cash conversion. Persistent positive FCF supports dividend capacity, capex funding and debt reduction opportunities, making cash dynamics a durable strength even if earnings fluctuate.

Negative Factors

Revenue Contraction

Declining top-line indicates pressure on shipment volumes or pricing in core steel markets. Over a multi-month horizon, shrinking revenue can erode operating leverage, limit scale advantages, and force tighter margins or reduced reinvestment, making recovery dependent on cyclical demand improvement.

Earnings Volatility

A steep EPS drop signals earnings sensitivity to commodity prices, volumes, or one-off items. Persistent earnings volatility weakens retained earnings and planning visibility, complicates capital allocation and could pressure dividend sustainability or investment pacing across 2–6 months.

Cyclical Industry & Margin Pressure

Steel's structural cyclicality and observed low single-digit net margins constrain durable profitability. Margin swings reduce ability to absorb cost shocks and sustain investment cycles; over the medium term this raises sensitivity to demand downturns and input-cost volatility.

JFE Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

JFE Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in steel, engineering, and trading businesses in Japan and internationally. Its Steel segment produces and sells various steel products, processed steel products, and raw materials, as well as operates in the transportation, facility maintenance, and construction businesses. The company's Engineering segment engages in the engineering of energy, urban environment, steel structures and industrial machinery, recycling, and electricity retailing projects. Its Trading segment purchases, processes, and distributes steel products, raw materials for steel production, nonferrous metal products, food, etc. JFE Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

JFE Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products, which includes flat products used in automotive and construction applications, long products utilized in infrastructure projects, and specialty steel for high-performance applications. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the demand from various sectors, particularly the automotive and construction industries. Additionally, JFE Holdings earns income from its engineering division, which provides design and construction services for infrastructure projects, as well as from its shipbuilding operations. Strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and construction firms enhance its revenue streams. Furthermore, JFE Holdings benefits from fluctuating global steel prices and demand trends, which can significantly impact its earnings. The company also explores opportunities in environmental solutions, which are increasingly gaining importance in the global market.

JFE Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed but improving fundamentals: profitability has recovered (gross margin 10.97%, net margin 1.89%) despite uneven revenue trends; leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity 0.70, equity ratio 44.78%); cash generation is solid but volatile (FCF positive, FCF/net income 1.08; OCF/net income 4.13), indicating strength with some capital/cycle sensitivity.

Income Statement

JFE Holdings has shown notable improvements in profitability with a gross profit margin of 10.97% and a net profit margin of 1.89% in the most recent period. Despite some fluctuations in EBIT and EBITDA margins over the years, the company has managed to stabilize its revenue and profit growth. The revenue growth trajectory has been inconsistent, indicated by a decline from 2023 to 2024. The steel industry is cyclical, and such fluctuations are common. Overall, the income statement reflects a company that is regaining financial health post significant challenges in previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of JFE Holdings indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, reflecting a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity stands at 3.63%, suggesting moderate profitability from equity financing. The equity ratio is 44.78%, highlighting a solid portion of the company’s assets financed through equity. Despite a high total debt, the company's significant equity base provides a buffer against financial risk, suggesting relative stability.

Cash Flow

JFE Holdings has managed to generate positive free cash flow, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.08, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows volatility, reflecting challenges in capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.13 demonstrates strong cash flow generation capabilities, which is a positive sign for sustaining operations and future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.76T	4.86T	5.17T	5.27T	4.37T	3.23T
Gross Profit	508.26B	533.08B	656.18B	609.42B	670.46B	314.52B
EBITDA	377.48B	368.30B	566.15B	475.36B	554.29B	231.37B
Net Income	71.48B	91.87B	197.42B	162.62B	288.06B	-21.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.63T	5.65T	5.75T	5.52T	5.29T	4.65T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	175.10B	172.84B	243.08B	119.39B	101.77B	142.42B
Total Debt	1.96T	1.77T	1.83T	1.86T	1.85T	1.81T
Total Liabilities	3.10T	3.06T	3.22T	3.33T	3.22T	2.89T
Stockholders Equity	2.47T	2.53T	2.46T	2.12T	1.99T	1.68T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	99.55B	149.14B	106.60B	-14.59B	-60.85B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	378.97B	478.97B	395.80B	298.74B	247.27B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-283.18B	-325.26B	-274.31B	-288.03B	-164.22B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-157.44B	-45.49B	-110.17B	-57.43B	-30.09B

JFE Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2136.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5411, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2136.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2232.43, above the 50-day MA of 2130.62, and above the 200-day MA of 1860.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 13.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:5411.

JFE Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5406	80 Outperform	¥889.62B	8.81	10.78%	4.68%	-1.97%	47.63%
5471	74 Outperform	¥482.46B	17.95	6.84%	2.99%	-0.02%	-40.45%
5423	73 Outperform	¥176.48B	12.17	7.36%	3.42%	-18.72%	-25.26%
5482	71 Outperform	¥221.19B	20.19	5.06%	1.80%	4.10%	152.90%
5401	67 Neutral	¥3.36T	-57.86	-0.26%	4.53%	1.31%	-101.19%
5411	64 Neutral	¥1.28T	26.58	2.92%	4.59%	-8.07%	-41.42%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

JFE Holdings Corporate Events

JFE Holdings Revises FY2025 Third-Quarter IR Presentation After Discovering Errors

JFE Holdings has issued a correction to its FY2025 third‑quarter investor relations presentation, originally released on February 5, 2026, after discovering errors in the disclosed materials. The company stated that specific items on page 32 of the presentation have been amended and reissued, underscoring an effort to ensure the accuracy of its financial communications to investors and other stakeholders ahead of the full‑year forecast and dividend discussions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5411) stock is a Hold with a Yen2245.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JFE Holdings stock, see the JP:5411 Stock Forecast page.

JFE Holdings Posts Profit Slide in Q3 FY2025 and Lowers Payout Versus Prior Year

JFE Holdings reported weaker results for the first nine months of fiscal 2025, with revenue falling 8% year-on-year to ¥3.38 trillion and profit attributable to owners of the parent declining 39.2% to ¥60.9 billion, as business profit also dropped nearly 20% and earnings per share fell to ¥95.73 under IFRS. Despite a slight increase in total assets and largely stable equity ratios, the company is guiding for a full-year revenue decline of 5.3% and a near 24% drop in profit before tax, alongside a lower full-year dividend forecast of ¥80 per share, signaling a more challenging earnings environment and a cautious stance on shareholder returns compared with the previous fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5411) stock is a Hold with a Yen2172.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JFE Holdings stock, see the JP:5411 Stock Forecast page.

JFE Holdings Announces Leadership Change With New Representative Director

JFE Holdings has announced a change in its top leadership, appointing Toshihiro Tanaka as a new Representative Director effective at the June 2026 General Meeting of Shareholders, while current Representative Director and Executive Vice President Masashi Terahata will retire from his representative role on April 1, 2026 and remain as a non-representative Director until the same shareholders’ meeting. Tanaka, a Waseda University law graduate who began his career at Nippon Kokan and has held a series of senior planning, controller, and executive positions within JFE Steel and JFE Holdings, brings deep internal experience to the post, signaling continuity in management and corporate strategy as the group navigates its next phase in the competitive global steel industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5411) stock is a Hold with a Yen2185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JFE Holdings stock, see the JP:5411 Stock Forecast page.