Rebase, Inc. (5138) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥3.04B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 18.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 21.24%
• EPS Growth: -4.81%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 36
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 3.96
• Shares Outstanding: 4,916,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 49,760
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,943
• PEG Ratio: 0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.17B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥615.00 ▼(-30.11% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (high margins, solid growth, debt-free balance sheet, and strong ROE). Offsetting this, technical indicators show a clear downtrend with bearish momentum (price below major moving averages and negative MACD), and valuation is stretched with a high P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue Scaling

Sustained revenue growth from 0.48B to 1.93B over four years indicates durable product-market fit and expanding customer adoption. That scale supports reinvestment in product, marketing and talent, and creates a base for continued margin leverage and structural growth opportunities.

Very High Gross Margins

Exceptionally high gross margins imply a largely digital or low-variable-cost model that sustainably converts incremental revenue to profit. High structural margins provide flexibility to invest in distribution and R&D while insulating core profitability from modest revenue swings.

Debt-free, Strong ROE

A zero-debt balance sheet and rising equity provide financial flexibility for capex, acquisitions or downturns without leverage risk. Strong ROE shows efficient capital deployment and supports sustainable shareholder returns and the ability to fund growth organically.

Negative Factors

Operating Cash Conversion Lag

Persistent gap between net income and operating cash flow suggests timing, receivables or working-capital inefficiencies that can strain liquidity if earnings weaken. Even as the ratio improves, the structural shortfall limits immediate cash available for reinvestment or dividends relative to reported profits.

EPS Growth Decline

Material negative EPS growth despite revenue expansion highlights earnings volatility or non-recurring impacts. This makes forward earnings less predictable, complicates capital allocation decisions, and could constrain hiring, R&D pacing, or external financing if profitability reverses.

Net Margin Variability

Although gross margins are very high, net margins have fluctuated, indicating operating-cost volatility or episodic charges. Such variability reduces profit predictability, complicates long-term planning, and could magnify downside in more competitive or cost-inflationary environments.

Rebase, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rebase, Inc. operates a rental space reservation platform in Japan. It develops and operates instabase, an online marketplace platform that matches people who want to use the space with people who want to rent the space. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Shibuya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Rebase, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its blockchain development platforms and digital asset management tools. The company offers these products on a subscription basis, providing tiered pricing models based on the scale and scope of the services required by clients. Additionally, Rebase, Inc. earns money through consultancy services, where it advises businesses on implementing blockchain technology to enhance their operational efficiency. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and financial institutions also contribute to the company's earnings, allowing for co-development opportunities and broader market reach for its solutions.

Rebase, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals supported by rapid revenue scaling (0.48B in 2021 to 1.93B in 2025) and very high gross margins (~96–99%). Profitability is robust (2025 EBIT margin ~25%, net margin ~19%) and the balance sheet is conservative with no debt in 2023–2025 and strong ROE (~26% in 2025). Key risk is cash conversion quality: operating cash flow has consistently trailed net income (improving to ~0.80x in 2025), though free cash flow has tracked earnings well in 2024–2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled strongly over the last several years (from 0.48B in 2021 to 1.93B in 2025), with growth re-accelerating in 2025 after a slower 2024. Profitability is a clear strength: gross margin is consistently ~96–99% and operating profitability is robust (2025 EBIT margin ~25% and net margin ~19%). A key watch item is that net margin has been somewhat uneven across years (mid-teens to ~19%), suggesting profitability can fluctuate even with very high gross margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has strengthened materially, with equity rising from 0.27B (2021) to 1.38B (2025) alongside asset growth. Leverage risk appears very low: total debt is 0 in 2023–2025 (down from modest debt levels in 2021–2022), and the debt-to-equity ratio is now 0. Returns for shareholders are strong (ROE ~21%–34% historically, ~26% in 2025), though ROE has moderated from peak levels as the equity base expanded.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving in absolute terms, with operating cash flow rising to 461M in 2025 and free cash flow reaching 455M. Cash conversion is generally healthy, with free cash flow close to net income in 2024–2025 (roughly ~0.89x to ~0.99x), supporting earnings quality. However, operating cash flow is still below net income in every year shown (about ~0.33x in 2021 improving to ~0.80x in 2025), which is a recurring weakness to monitor despite the improving trend.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.01B	1.93B	1.49B	1.16B	890.24M	475.93M
Gross Profit	1.94B	1.85B	1.43B	1.14B	871.80M	472.66M
EBITDA	491.15M	529.56M	370.29M	274.37M	216.14M	114.92M
Net Income	344.65M	362.92M	228.78M	158.49M	139.75M	90.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.78B	1.96B	1.47B	1.08B	796.28M	524.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.20B	1.54B	1.12B	792.63M	553.48M	424.66M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.48M	96.38M
Total Liabilities	529.84M	581.85M	495.57M	339.03M	383.20M	250.82M
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.38B	970.73M	740.85M	413.08M	273.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	455.14M	333.66M	174.06M	171.86M	51.58M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	461.14M	374.76M	221.81M	249.47M	54.87M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-91.09M	-43.56M	-47.75M	-121.75M	-4.76M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	46.61M	1.09M	65.10M	1.09M	90.86M

Rebase, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 880.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5138, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 880 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 620.60, above the 50-day MA of 740.04, and below the 200-day MA of 1058.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -33.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5138.

Rebase, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3922	77 Outperform	¥28.40B	12.43	―	0.38%	18.02%	46.43%
3981	67 Neutral	¥7.63B	8.92	―	1.76%	-10.62%	44.02%
5138	64 Neutral	¥3.04B	52.54	―	―	21.24%	-4.81%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
4176	58 Neutral	¥6.61B	27.11	―	―	42.83%	26.89%
3961	52 Neutral	¥2.27B	-48.01	―	―	-12.06%	-184.14%
3674	46 Neutral	¥3.55B	-15.74	―	―	-3.79%	-272.95%