Rebase, Inc. (5138) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥3.22B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 18.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 21.24%
• EPS Growth: -4.81%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 36
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): 3.96
• Shares Outstanding: 4,916,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 49,760
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 18,943
• PEG Ratio: 0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥2.17B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥718.00 ▼(-18.41% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Downgraded 12/30/25

The score is primarily supported by strong fundamentals: rapid scaling, high margins, and a debt-free balance sheet with solid ROE. Offsetting this is weak technical positioning (below key longer-term moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is reasonable with a mid-teens P/E, but no dividend yield data is available to add support.

Positive Factors

Very high gross margins

Rebase's extremely high gross margins (mid-to-high 90s) reflect a digital/content business with low incremental costs, creating durable operating leverage. Over time this supports strong operating margins, reinvestment capacity, and resilience versus competitors that must bear higher variable costs.

Sustained multi-year revenue scaling

Consistent, multi-year top-line growth that re-accelerated in 2025 indicates product-market fit and expanding market penetration. This scale expands addressable reach, enables operating leverage, and creates a stronger base for continued monetization and structural margin improvement over the medium term.

Debt-free balance sheet and strong ROE

Zero reported debt across recent years and robust historical ROE provide financial flexibility and lower solvency risk. This balance-sheet strength supports strategic investments, M&A optionality or shareholder returns without refinancing vulnerability, a durable advantage through economic cycles.

Negative Factors

Operating cash flow lags net income

OCF consistently below net income signals recurring cash conversion friction from working capital or accruals, reducing the certainty of reported earnings. If this persists it can limit truly available cash for capex, buybacks or dividends despite strong accounting profits, raising structural liquidity risk.

Uneven net margin profile

Although margins are strong on average, year-to-year net margin variability suggests sensitivity to cost swings, mix shifts or episodic items. This unevenness complicates earnings visibility and financial planning, making long-term forecasting and stable return expectations harder to rely on.

Negative recent EPS growth

A sharp negative EPS growth rate indicates earnings volatility despite revenue gains and margin strength. This could reflect one-off charges, dilution, or timing effects and increases the risk that headline profitability will swing, reducing predictability of shareholder returns over the medium term.

Rebase, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rebase, Inc. operates a rental space reservation platform in Japan. It develops and operates instabase, an online marketplace platform that matches people who want to use the space with people who want to rent the space. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Shibuya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Rebase, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its blockchain development platforms and digital asset management tools. The company offers these products on a subscription basis, providing tiered pricing models based on the scale and scope of the services required by clients. Additionally, Rebase, Inc. earns money through consultancy services, where it advises businesses on implementing blockchain technology to enhance their operational efficiency. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and financial institutions also contribute to the company's earnings, allowing for co-development opportunities and broader market reach for its solutions.

Rebase, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue scaling and high profitability (very high gross margins, solid EBIT and net margins). Balance sheet is very strong with no debt in recent years and healthy ROE. Main watch item is cash quality: operating cash flow has trailed net income every year, though the gap has been narrowing and free cash flow has been strong lately.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled strongly over the last several years (from 0.48B in 2021 to 1.93B in 2025), with growth re-accelerating in 2025 after a slower 2024. Profitability is a clear strength: gross margin is consistently ~96–99% and operating profitability is robust (2025 EBIT margin ~25% and net margin ~19%). A key watch item is that net margin has been somewhat uneven across years (mid-teens to ~19%), suggesting profitability can fluctuate even with very high gross margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has strengthened materially, with equity rising from 0.27B (2021) to 1.38B (2025) alongside asset growth. Leverage risk appears very low: total debt is 0 in 2023–2025 (down from modest debt levels in 2021–2022), and the debt-to-equity ratio is now 0. Returns for shareholders are strong (ROE ~21%–34% historically, ~26% in 2025), though ROE has moderated from peak levels as the equity base expanded.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving in absolute terms, with operating cash flow rising to 461M in 2025 and free cash flow reaching 455M. Cash conversion is generally healthy, with free cash flow close to net income in 2024–2025 (roughly ~0.89x to ~0.99x), supporting earnings quality. However, operating cash flow is still below net income in every year shown (about ~0.33x in 2021 improving to ~0.80x in 2025), which is a recurring weakness to monitor despite the improving trend.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.01B	1.93B	1.49B	1.16B	890.24M	475.93M
Gross Profit	1.94B	1.85B	1.43B	1.14B	871.80M	472.66M
EBITDA	491.15M	529.56M	370.29M	274.37M	216.14M	114.92M
Net Income	344.65M	362.92M	228.78M	158.49M	139.75M	90.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.78B	1.96B	1.47B	1.08B	796.28M	524.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.20B	1.54B	1.12B	792.63M	553.48M	424.66M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	97.48M	96.38M
Total Liabilities	529.84M	581.85M	495.57M	339.03M	383.20M	250.82M
Stockholders Equity	1.25B	1.38B	970.73M	740.85M	413.08M	273.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	455.14M	333.66M	174.06M	171.86M	51.58M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	461.14M	374.76M	221.81M	249.47M	54.87M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-91.09M	-43.56M	-47.75M	-121.75M	-4.76M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	46.61M	1.09M	65.10M	1.09M	90.86M

Rebase, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 880.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5138, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 880 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 730.15, above the 50-day MA of 808.74, and below the 200-day MA of 1113.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -54.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:5138.

Rebase, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3922	77 Outperform	¥32.41B	15.15	―	0.38%	18.02%	46.43%
5138	69 Neutral	¥3.22B	16.70	―	―	21.24%	-4.81%
3981	67 Neutral	¥7.91B	10.67	―	1.76%	-10.62%	44.02%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
4176	58 Neutral	¥7.26B	25.86	―	―	42.83%	26.89%
3961	52 Neutral	¥2.27B	-47.89	―	―	-12.06%	-184.14%
3674	46 Neutral	¥3.60B	-8.57	―	―	-3.79%	-272.95%