BP Castrol K.K. (5015) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥23.00B
• Dividend Yield: 4.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 12.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.25
• Revenue Growth: 13.76%
• EPS Growth: 13.58%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 91
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 12.71
• Shares Outstanding: 22,975,187
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,710
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 12,066
• PEG Ratio: 1.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 27.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,056.00 ▲(15.54% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality—especially the zero-debt balance sheet and improving 2025 profitability—partly offset by uneven cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive but look overextended (high RSI), and valuation is mixed with a strong dividend yield but a mid-range P/E.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet (zero debt)

Zero total debt materially reduces financial risk and gives management durable flexibility to fund operations, dividends, or strategic investments from internal resources. This conservatism supports resilience through commodity cycles and reduces refinancing and interest-rate exposure over months.

Steady revenue growth and improving profitability

Consistent revenue expansion and a recent step-up in profitability indicate durable demand for Castrol lubricants and improving operational leverage. For a consumables business, steady volume and margin recovery support predictable cash flows and reinforce competitive position in automotive and industrial channels.

Meaningful free cash flow rebound in 2025

A strong FCF rebound and high FCF-to-income ratio improve the company's ability to self-fund capex, dividends, and working-capital needs. Sustained cash conversion at this level would strengthen financial flexibility and support long-term capital allocation without relying on external financing.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent cash-flow conversion historically

Volatile and historically weak operating cash conversion undermines the reliability of reported profits as a funding source. Persistent gaps between earnings and cash flow complicate forecasting, heighten working-capital risk, and can constrain sustainable payout or reinvestment plans over the medium term.

Margins remain below pre-2021 levels

Although margins improved into 2025, the company has not regained earlier margin peaks. This suggests enduring cost or competitive pressures that could cap long-term profitability and limit the firm's ability to generate higher returns on sales even as revenue grows.

Return on equity not yet restored

ROE that remains materially below prior-cycle levels points to subdued capital efficiency or lower pricing power. If ROE stays under historical norms, the company may struggle to generate strong long-term shareholder returns and may face limits on reinvestment value creation.

BP Castrol K.K. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BP Castrol K.K. (5015) is a subsidiary of BP p.l.c., operating within the automotive and industrial lubricants sectors. The company specializes in the production and distribution of high-performance lubricants, including engine oils, greases, and related products, serving a wide array of industries ranging from automotive to industrial machinery.

How the Company Makes Money

BP Castrol K.K. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its lubricant products. The company's key revenue streams include the automotive sector, where it supplies engine oils and maintenance products to car manufacturers, dealerships, and service centers. Additionally, it serves industrial clients by providing specialized lubricants for machinery and equipment. Strategic partnerships with automotive brands and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) play a significant role in its distribution network, enhancing market reach and product placement. Revenue is also influenced by factors such as global oil prices and demand fluctuations in the automotive and industrial sectors.

BP Castrol K.K. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid recent operating improvement with steady revenue growth and better 2025 profitability versus 2022–2024, supported by an exceptionally conservative balance sheet with zero debt. The main offset is inconsistent cash-flow conversion and volatile free cash flow in prior years despite the 2025 rebound.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2022–2025 (2025 up ~7.6% YoY), and profitability improved versus 2022–2024 with EBIT and net margins stepping up in 2025. However, margins remain well below 2020–2021 levels (a clear post-2021 profitability reset), suggesting the current earnings power is healthier recently but not yet back to prior-cycle highs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservatively positioned with zero total debt across the period, limiting financial risk and giving strong flexibility. Equity is sizable and stable, and return on equity has improved into 2025 (~10.4%) from the 2022 trough, though it is still below the ~14% levels seen in 2020–2021.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved meaningfully in 2025, with free cash flow up sharply versus 2024 and equaling a large portion of net income (~87%). The main weakness is conversion consistency: operating cash flow has been relatively low versus accounting earnings across years (coverage ratio remains modest even in 2025), and free cash flow was volatile (notably weak in 2022 and down in 2024) before the rebound.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.81B	14.69B	13.65B	12.04B	11.19B	11.09B
Gross Profit	4.51B	5.49B	4.94B	4.60B	4.62B	5.80B
EBITDA	1.06B	1.72B	1.55B	1.25B	998.83M	2.40B
Net Income	630.07M	1.05B	932.53M	781.50M	572.53M	1.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.52B	12.99B	13.44B	12.81B	12.75B	13.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	223.00M	195.62M	777.45M	1.27B	339.70M	250.23M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.74B	2.91B	3.43B	2.84B	2.67B	2.64B
Stockholders Equity	9.78B	10.08B	10.01B	9.97B	10.08B	10.93B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	291.44M	780.14M	408.69M	451.20M	104.37M	1.09B
Operating Cash Flow	291.44M	895.32M	516.61M	645.39M	378.65M	1.20B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	375.04M	-122.66M	-193.54M	1.72B	-114.38M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-985.33M	-894.21M	-893.74M	-1.42B	-1.58B

BP Castrol K.K. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 914.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5015, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 914 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 969.60, below the 50-day MA of 944.66, and above the 200-day MA of 879.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5015.

BP Castrol K.K. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8131	74 Outperform	¥131.32B	11.31	―	2.57%	7.46%	153.98%
5015	70 Outperform	¥23.00B	21.89	―	4.50%	13.76%	13.58%
5019	68 Neutral	¥1.92T	62.58	2.23%	3.07%	-7.68%	-73.03%
8132	67 Neutral	¥71.05B	25.58	―	1.37%	-5.02%	186.97%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
5020	64 Neutral	¥4.02T	21.74	-0.15%	2.74%	-14.13%	33.18%
8133	63 Neutral	¥235.36B	16.46	―	3.45%	-4.87%	26.27%

BP Castrol K.K. Corporate Events

BP Castrol K.K. Delivers Higher Earnings and Stronger Capital in FY2025

BP Castrol K.K. reported solid results for the fiscal year ended December 2025, with net sales rising 7.6% year on year to ¥14.69 billion and operating profit up 15.3% to ¥1.56 billion, driving a 12.7% increase in profit to ¥1.05 billion. Profitability ratios improved, as operating margin reached 10.6% and return on equity climbed to 10.5%, supporting basic earnings per share of ¥45.76.

Financially, the company’s position remained robust despite a slight decline in total assets to ¥12.99 billion, as net assets edged up and the capital adequacy ratio strengthened to 77.6%. Stronger cash generation from operations and positive investing cash flow lifted cash and cash equivalents at period-end to ¥1.03 billion, underpinning dividend payouts and signaling continued financial stability for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5015) stock is a Buy with a Yen1064.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BP Castrol K.K. stock, see the JP:5015 Stock Forecast page.