Makuake, Inc. (4479) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥14.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 67.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 25.33%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 22.76
• Shares Outstanding: 12,748,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 54,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 67,533
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,296.00 ▲(51.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a strong, debt-free balance sheet, tempered by prior multi-year earnings and cash flow volatility. Technicals add support due to a strong uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is neutral-to-slightly limiting at ~22x earnings with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

Zero reported debt gives Makuake durable financial flexibility: it can fund marketing, product development, or M&A without near-term solvency pressure. A debt-free structure reduces fixed financing costs and lowers bankruptcy risk, supporting long-term operational resilience.

High gross margins

Sustained gross margins in the 75–82% range indicate the platform captures significant value per transaction. High gross margin provides structural earnings leverage: modest top-line growth can translate to outsized operating profit if operating expenses are managed, aiding durable margin sustainability.

Asset-light platform model

An asset-light, commission-based model scales with project volume without inventory or heavy capex. This structure supports higher incremental margins, faster cash conversion, and strategic optional services revenue, making profitable growth more attainable as the user base expands.

Negative Factors

Multi-year cash/earnings volatility

Historic swings between loss-making years and a recent rebound mean cash generation is not yet reliably durable. Persistent volatility makes capital allocation harder, raises the risk that the 2025 recovery was cyclical, and reduces confidence in consistent free cash flow over the medium term.

Revenue tied to campaign volume

Revenue depends on discrete campaign activity and creator/backer engagement rather than long-term recurring contracts. This concentration exposes revenue to demand cycles, competitive shifts, and marketing intensity, limiting predictability and making growth sensitive to platform traction retention.

Inconsistent returns on equity

Although ROE rebounded to ~7.5% in 2025, inconsistent profitability across prior years hampers the company’s ability to compound shareholder value. Uneven returns constrain reinvestment capacity and raise execution risk for sustaining long-term growth and improving capital efficiency.

Makuake, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Makuake, Inc. operates the Makuake crowdfunding platform in Japan. It provides support services for new business development and human resource development; displays and sells products; and operates a shopping site that sells finished products to the consumers. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Makuake primarily generates revenue by charging fees tied to crowdfunding campaigns executed on its platform. The main revenue stream is a commission (platform usage fee) calculated as a percentage of the funds raised by successful projects; this monetizes transaction volume (gross merchandise/value of support collected) rather than taking inventory risk. In addition, the company earns revenue from related services that support project owners, such as optional marketing and promotional support, campaign consulting/assistance, and other value-added services provided around project planning, content creation, and distribution of projects to potential backers. The company’s earnings are therefore driven by (1) the number of projects launched, (2) the average amount raised per project, (3) take-rate/commission levels, and (4) attach rates for any paid support services. Specific commission rates, breakdowns by service line, and named partnership terms are null.

Makuake, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a notable 2025 turnaround with revenue up 7.2%, a return to positive operating profit and net income (net margin ~8.9%), and sharply improved operating/free cash flow. Strength is supported by consistently high gross margins (~75–82%) and a very conservative balance sheet with zero debt. The main offset is multi-year volatility (losses and negative cash flow in 2022–2024), making durability of the recovery the key risk.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully in the most recent year, with revenue up 7.2% and the company returning to positive operating profit and net income (net margin ~8.9% vs. losses in 2022–2024). Gross margin remains consistently strong (~75–82%), supporting earnings leverage when costs are controlled. However, results have been volatile over the last several years, including multiple loss-making years and uneven revenue growth, which tempers confidence in durability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative with zero debt across all reported periods, providing strong financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Equity is substantial relative to assets, and return on equity rebounded to ~7.5% in 2025 after being negative in 2022–2024. The main weakness is that profitability has not been consistent enough to generate steady returns on the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation rebounded sharply in 2025 with positive operating cash flow (¥985M) and free cash flow (¥971M), and free cash flow closely matched net income, indicating decent earnings quality in the latest year. That said, cash flow has been highly inconsistent—operating and free cash flow were deeply negative in 2022–2024—so the key risk is whether the 2025 improvement is sustainable rather than a one-off swing.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.58B	3.65B	3.81B	4.21B	4.62B
Gross Profit	3.44B	2.78B	3.06B	3.36B	3.81B
EBITDA	625.03M	56.21M	-454.00M	-152.00M	437.61M
Net Income	407.26M	-103.60M	-491.08M	-1.35B	246.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.45B	6.65B	7.96B	8.26B	10.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.97B	5.06B	6.41B	7.32B	8.59B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.03B	1.63B	2.85B	2.68B	3.46B
Stockholders Equity	5.42B	5.01B	5.11B	5.58B	6.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	971.17M	-1.10B	-921.82M	-1.34B	-161.97M
Operating Cash Flow	985.08M	-1.09B	-339.22M	-827.32M	151.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-81.42M	-276.71M	-582.12M	-475.79M	-586.41M
Financing Cash Flow	4.50M	18.51M	14.01M	33.66M	3.92B

Makuake, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 856.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4479, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 856 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1165.20, below the 50-day MA of 1050.16, and below the 200-day MA of 955.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 54.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4479.

Makuake, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4479	72 Outperform	¥14.89B	9.19	―	―	25.33%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
2998	67 Neutral	¥28.28B	9.14	―	0.66%	10.67%	6.94%
4310	65 Neutral	¥27.63B	43.28	―	18.63%	21.38%	―

Makuake, Inc. Corporate Events

Makuake Delivers Strong Q1 Profit Surge but Sees Weaker Earnings Ahead for FY2026

Makuake reported a strong first quarter for the three months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 49.2% year on year to ¥1,463 million and operating and ordinary profit both climbing more than threefold, driving profit up 178.7% to ¥290 million and basic earnings per share to ¥22.76. The company’s financial position remained solid, with total assets of ¥7,916 million and an equity ratio of 71.6%, and it maintained its policy of not paying dividends while investing for growth; for the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, Makuake forecasts modest net sales growth of 4.0% but expects declines in profit metrics versus the previous year, indicating that higher costs or strategic investments may compress margins despite continued top-line expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4479) stock is a Hold with a Yen1012.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Makuake, Inc. stock, see the JP:4479 Stock Forecast page.