Makuake, Inc. (4479) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥14.79B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 67.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: 25.33%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 165
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 22.76
• Shares Outstanding: 12,748,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 54,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 67,533
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,136.00 ▲(32.71% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/31/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/31/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a strong, debt-free balance sheet, tempered by prior multi-year earnings and cash flow volatility. Technicals add support due to a strong uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is neutral-to-slightly limiting at ~22x earnings with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Zero reported debt provides durable financial flexibility and low solvency risk, enabling the company to fund initiatives, weather downturns, or pursue strategic opportunities without relying on external leverage. This structural strength supports long-term stability and optionality.

High gross margins

Sustained gross margins near 75–82% indicate strong unit economics in the platform model. High product-level margins create durable operating leverage: when revenue growth resumes, incremental sales can flow to the bottom line and support reinvestment in marketing and product development.

Improved cash generation and return to profit

The 2025 recovery to positive operating and free cash flow demonstrates the business can generate internally funded growth and reduce dependence on financing. If sustained, this improves capital allocation flexibility and the ability to reinvest in platform services and creator support.

Negative Factors

Multi-year earnings and cash flow volatility

Historic swings to losses and negative cash flow over multiple years highlight execution and demand risk. This volatility weakens predictability of cash generation and complicates planning, making it harder to rely on recent gains as a durable baseline for growth investments.

Revenue sensitivity to platform activity

Revenue depends structurally on project volume, average funding per project, and paid service attach rates. That makes top-line and margins sensitive to creator activity, consumer demand cycles, and competitive pressure, raising risk to stable growth if platform engagement slips.

Inconsistent returns on equity

Intermittent profitability limits the firm's ability to deliver consistent ROE and shareholder value. Without steady earnings, the company may struggle to fund growth from retained profits, increasing reliance on careful capital allocation or external financing to scale long-term.

Makuake, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Makuake, Inc. operates the Makuake crowdfunding platform in Japan. It provides support services for new business development and human resource development; displays and sells products; and operates a shopping site that sells finished products to the consumers. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Makuake, Inc. generates revenue primarily through commission fees on successful crowdfunding campaigns hosted on its platform. When a project reaches its funding goal, Makuake takes a percentage of the total funds raised as a service fee. This fee is the primary source of income for the company. Additionally, Makuake may offer premium services or promotional tools for project creators to enhance their campaigns, providing an additional revenue stream. Partnerships with other businesses, such as manufacturers and retailers, can also influence earnings by expanding Makuake's network and reach, although specific financial details of such partnerships are not typically disclosed.

Makuake, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a notable 2025 turnaround with revenue up 7.2%, a return to positive operating profit and net income (net margin ~8.9%), and sharply improved operating/free cash flow. Strength is supported by consistently high gross margins (~75–82%) and a very conservative balance sheet with zero debt. The main offset is multi-year volatility (losses and negative cash flow in 2022–2024), making durability of the recovery the key risk.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully in the most recent year, with revenue up 7.2% and the company returning to positive operating profit and net income (net margin ~8.9% vs. losses in 2022–2024). Gross margin remains consistently strong (~75–82%), supporting earnings leverage when costs are controlled. However, results have been volatile over the last several years, including multiple loss-making years and uneven revenue growth, which tempers confidence in durability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative with zero debt across all reported periods, providing strong financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Equity is substantial relative to assets, and return on equity rebounded to ~7.5% in 2025 after being negative in 2022–2024. The main weakness is that profitability has not been consistent enough to generate steady returns on the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation rebounded sharply in 2025 with positive operating cash flow (¥985M) and free cash flow (¥971M), and free cash flow closely matched net income, indicating decent earnings quality in the latest year. That said, cash flow has been highly inconsistent—operating and free cash flow were deeply negative in 2022–2024—so the key risk is whether the 2025 improvement is sustainable rather than a one-off swing.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.58B	3.65B	3.81B	4.21B	4.62B
Gross Profit	3.44B	2.78B	3.06B	3.36B	3.81B
EBITDA	625.03M	56.21M	-454.00M	-152.00M	437.61M
Net Income	407.26M	-103.60M	-491.08M	-1.35B	246.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.45B	6.65B	7.96B	8.26B	10.33B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.97B	5.06B	6.41B	7.32B	8.59B
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.03B	1.63B	2.85B	2.68B	3.46B
Stockholders Equity	5.42B	5.01B	5.11B	5.58B	6.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	971.17M	-1.10B	-921.82M	-1.34B	-161.97M
Operating Cash Flow	985.08M	-1.09B	-339.22M	-827.32M	151.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-81.42M	-276.71M	-582.12M	-475.79M	-586.41M
Financing Cash Flow	4.50M	18.51M	14.01M	33.66M	3.92B

Makuake, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 856.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4479, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 856 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1028.95, below the 50-day MA of 945.12, and below the 200-day MA of 921.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 34.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4479.

Makuake, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4479	72 Outperform	¥14.79B	24.93	―	―	25.33%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
2998	67 Neutral	¥30.00B	13.67	―	0.66%	10.67%	6.94%
4310	65 Neutral	¥29.18B	28.90	―	18.63%	21.38%	―

Makuake, Inc. Corporate Events

Makuake Delivers Strong Q1 Profit Surge but Sees Weaker Earnings Ahead for FY2026

Makuake reported a strong first quarter for the three months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 49.2% year on year to ¥1,463 million and operating and ordinary profit both climbing more than threefold, driving profit up 178.7% to ¥290 million and basic earnings per share to ¥22.76. The company’s financial position remained solid, with total assets of ¥7,916 million and an equity ratio of 71.6%, and it maintained its policy of not paying dividends while investing for growth; for the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, Makuake forecasts modest net sales growth of 4.0% but expects declines in profit metrics versus the previous year, indicating that higher costs or strategic investments may compress margins despite continued top-line expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4479) stock is a Hold with a Yen1012.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Makuake, Inc. stock, see the JP:4479 Stock Forecast page.

Makuake, Inc. Affirms Independence and Fair Practices with Parent Company CyberAgent

Makuake, Inc. has announced details regarding its relationship with its parent company, CyberAgent, Inc., which holds a 50.87% voting rights stake. The company maintains its independence in business decisions despite having a director from CyberAgent. Makuake ensures fair transaction terms with its parent company, focusing on economic rationality and protecting minority shareholders’ interests.