giftee, Inc. (4449) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥30.40B
• Dividend Yield: 0.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 363.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 49.28%
• EPS Growth: -117.98%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 585
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): -6.84
• Shares Outstanding: 29,777,502
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 266,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 363,140
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,057.00 ▼(-15.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improved 2025 financial performance (growth, profitability, and cash-flow recovery), partially offset by elevated leverage and prior volatility. Technical conditions are a major drag due to a pronounced downtrend and weak momentum. Valuation is mixed, with a high P/E and only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Platform business model with diversified revenue streams

giftee's multi-pronged model (consumer e-gift margins, B2B campaign fees, and API/platform services) creates durable, diversified cash sources. This reduces single-channel dependence, supports cross-sell between corporate clients and consumer users, and leverages scale as transaction volume grows.

Improved profitability with strong operating margins

Re-established high operating margins (EBIT ~18% and EBITDA ~25%) indicate the core business is structurally profitable and scalable. If sustained, these margins provide enduring cover for fixed costs, fund investment in product/partnerships, and improve resilience to modest demand swings.

Re-established operating and free cash flow

The restoration of operating and free cash flow demonstrates improved earnings quality and internal financing capacity. Positive FCF roughly matching net income supports sustainable investment, debt servicing or buybacks, and reduces reliance on external funding over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage limiting financial flexibility

Meaningful leverage weakens the balance sheet and raises sensitivity to profit or cash setbacks. High debt-to-equity constrains strategic optionality, increases interest burden, and reduces capacity to fund growth or weather downturns without refinancing or operational trade-offs.

History of earnings and cash-flow volatility

Large year-to-year swings in profits and cash generation show the business can be cyclical or execution-sensitive. This volatility undermines forecasting reliability, complicates capital allocation, and means current improvements may be reversed without durable structural improvements.

Business dependent on partner/merchant network execution

Transaction volume and value depend materially on partner brand coverage and integrations. Weakness, concentration, or failure to expand/retain partners limits redemption appeal and growth. Lack of disclosed marquee partners raises execution and competitive-risk visibility over the medium term.

giftee, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

giftee Inc. provides a service to send an e-gift through LINE or email. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Giftee generates revenue primarily through the sale of gift cards and related services. The company earns a margin on each gift card transaction, which is the difference between the purchase price and the redemption value. Additionally, Giftee may engage in partnerships with various retailers and brands, providing them with a platform to reach new customers while earning commissions on sales driven through their service. The company may also explore subscription models for businesses seeking regular gifting solutions, further diversifying its revenue streams. Seasonal campaigns and promotions contribute to increased sales during peak gifting seasons, enhancing overall profitability.

giftee, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operations rebounded in 2025 with accelerating revenue growth (+15.9%), a return to positive net income (~6.6% net margin), and strong operating profitability (EBIT ~18.4%, EBITDA ~25.3%). Cash flow also recovered sharply with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow after two negative years, but elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.73) and a history of earnings/cash-flow volatility materially temper the score.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong and accelerating in the latest year (2025: +15.9% vs. 2024: ~flat), and profitability improved materially with a return to positive net income (2025 net margin ~6.6% vs. 2024 negative). Operating profitability is solid (2025 EBIT margin ~18.4% and EBITDA margin ~25.3%) with consistently high gross margins across the period, but results have been volatile—net income swung from strong profitability in 2020 to near-breakeven in 2022, a loss in 2024, and a rebound in 2025.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage. Debt increased sharply versus earlier years (notably from no debt in 2020 to elevated levels later), and leverage remains high despite improvement in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.73 in 2025 vs. ~2.32 in 2024). Equity is positive and growing modestly, but the current debt load reduces financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to any earnings or cash flow downturn.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved dramatically in 2025, with strong positive operating cash flow (~¥11.1B) and free cash flow (~¥10.9B) following two years of negative operating and free cash flow (2023–2024). Free cash flow is roughly in line with reported profits in 2025 (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), which supports earnings quality; however, the historical pattern of cash flow volatility (large outflows in 2023–2024) is a key risk to consistency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.20B	14.15B	9.55B	7.23B	4.72B	3.73B
Gross Profit	9.01B	10.43B	7.18B	5.87B	3.97B	3.17B
EBITDA	3.18B	3.58B	2.20B	933.00M	670.00M	513.00M
Net Income	-190.00M	936.00M	-510.00M	129.00M	10.00M	150.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	40.85B	44.71B	41.19B	22.16B	19.77B	18.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.99B	16.93B	10.98B	5.10B	9.98B	11.03B
Total Debt	16.71B	15.81B	19.16B	8.16B	8.28B	8.37B
Total Liabilities	32.13B	35.43B	32.91B	13.86B	11.68B	11.16B
Stockholders Equity	8.68B	9.15B	8.26B	8.30B	8.09B	7.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	10.95B	-3.60B	-3.91B	264.00M	-46.38M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	11.09B	-3.59B	-3.73B	424.00M	313.86M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.49B	-1.53B	-1.05B	-1.37B	-3.52B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-3.64B	11.00B	-102.00M	-64.00M	10.97B

giftee, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1256.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4449, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1256 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1193.45, above the 50-day MA of 1236.29, and below the 200-day MA of 1344.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -73.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4449.

giftee, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6058	79 Outperform	¥64.29B	11.18	30.38%	2.74%	6.18%	2.73%
9997	71 Outperform	¥95.04B	8.45	6.96%	2.98%	1.15%	86.72%
3048	66 Neutral	¥304.36B	15.90	11.17%	2.61%	5.63%	25.64%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
4017	61 Neutral	¥1.64B	42.36	―	―	-0.97%	-6.95%
4449	57 Neutral	¥30.40B	32.43	―	0.82%	49.28%	-117.98%
4755	41 Neutral	¥1.82T	-10.30	-21.14%	―	11.45%	42.34%

giftee, Inc. Corporate Events

Giftee Beats FY2025 Profit Forecasts but Books ¥364 Million Investment Impairment

Giftee Inc. reported that its full-year FY2025 consolidated results slightly missed net sales guidance but exceeded forecasts for EBITDA, operating profit, and ordinary profit, while posting net income attributable to shareholders of ¥935 million after a loss in the prior year. The company also recognized an extraordinary loss of ¥364 million in the fourth quarter due to impairment on investment securities whose fair value fell significantly below acquisition cost, indicating stronger core operations but exposure to valuation risks in its investment portfolio.

Despite the modest 1.0% shortfall in net sales versus forecast, profitability improved meaningfully, with operating profit up 8.1% against guidance and a sharp turnaround from the previous year’s net loss. The combination of higher-than-expected profits from the main business and the one-off impairment charge suggests underlying operational momentum, while highlighting that non-operating investment positions can still introduce earnings volatility for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4449) stock is a Hold with a Yen1278.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on giftee, Inc. stock, see the JP:4449 Stock Forecast page.

Giftee to Shift to Holding Company Structure and List New Parent on TSE Prime

Giftee, Inc. has resolved to transition to a pure holding company structure by establishing giftee Group, Inc. through a sole share transfer, with the new entity scheduled to become the listed parent company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market while the current operating company is turned into a wholly owned subsidiary and delisted. The move is designed to strengthen group-wide capital allocation, M&A strategy, and governance, enabling more sophisticated resource management and risk control while allowing operating units greater autonomy and agility, with a subsequent reorganization of subsidiaries planned to report directly under the new holding company.

The holding company will focus on portfolio strategy, investment decisions, and group governance, aiming to balance fast growth in the e-gift business with stronger internal controls and compliance. This structural shift is expected to support medium- to long-term corporate value enhancement and sustainable growth, positioning the group to better manage its expanding domestic and international operations and post-merger integration as it pursues further geographic and business expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4449) stock is a Hold with a Yen1278.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on giftee, Inc. stock, see the JP:4449 Stock Forecast page.

Giftee swings to profit with double-digit growth and raises dividend

Giftee Inc. reported strong consolidated results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with net sales surging 48.1% to ¥14.15 billion and EBITDA climbing 62.9% to ¥3.74 billion. Operating profit rose 49.3% to ¥2.60 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent swung to a ¥935 million gain from a loss a year earlier, lifting ROE to 11.6% and supporting a higher year-end dividend.

The company’s financial position also strengthened, as total assets increased to ¥44.71 billion and equity improved, while operating cash flow turned sharply positive to ¥11.09 billion, boosting cash and cash equivalents to ¥16.93 billion. For 2026, Giftee forecasts further growth with net sales expected to rise 19.8% and operating profit 33.8%, underlining continued business expansion and a progressive dividend policy despite withholding a forecast for profit attributable to owners of parent.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4449) stock is a Hold with a Yen1278.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on giftee, Inc. stock, see the JP:4449 Stock Forecast page.