Simplex Holdings,Inc. (4373) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥204.09B
• Dividend Yield: 1.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 138.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 23.88%
• EPS Growth: 64.21%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,350
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Consulting Services
• EPS (TTM): 11.02
• Shares Outstanding: 236,487,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 126,450
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 138,463
• PEG Ratio: 0.85
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 42.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥57.63B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥810.00 ▼(-22.93% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

Strong underlying financial performance (high margins, improving leverage, solid cash conversion) is the main support for the score. This is offset by weak technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderately supportive valuation (P/E ~18.36, ~1.64% yield).

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained high gross, EBIT and net margins indicate durable pricing power and efficient cost structure in consulting operations. High margins support reinvestment, returns on equity, and resilience to revenue volatility, underpinning long-term cash generation and shareholder returns.

Improving Leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio shows strengthening capital structure and reduced financial risk. Improved leverage increases strategic flexibility for capex, M&A or dividends, lowers interest burden, and enhances the firm's ability to weather economic stress over the medium term.

Strong Cash Conversion

Free cash flow that roughly equals net income signals high quality earnings and effective working capital management. Reliable cash conversion supports debt repayment, shareholder returns and reinvestment, making operating performance more durable even if revenue growth moderates.

Negative Factors

Slowing Revenue Growth

Top-line expansion has slowed to low-single digits from prior double-digit growth, reducing the runway for operating leverage to drive outsized profit growth. In consulting services, sustained revenue momentum is critical to scale fixed costs and fund long-term investment and margin expansion.

Declining Free Cash Flow

A recent decline in free cash flow and noted volatility in cash coverage create uncertainty around the durability of cash available for debt reduction, capex, or dividends. Even with strong conversion ratio, declining FCF trends can constrain strategic options during weaker quarters.

Meaningful Absolute Debt

Although leverage ratios have improved, the company still carries meaningful absolute debt which elevates refinancing and interest-rate risk. This can limit flexibility for opportunistic M&A or aggressive shareholder returns relative to lower-debt peers over a multi-quarter horizon.

Simplex Holdings,Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simplex Holdings, Inc. provides strategic consulting, system design and development, and operation and maintenance services to financial institutions, corporations, and the public sectors worldwide. Its strategic/DX consulting services include forming management and business strategy formation, organizational reform, and business process transformation services. The company also offers system consulting, and shared service/software as a service solution. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Simplex Holdings generates revenue through a multi-faceted business model that includes direct sales of software and technology solutions, service contracts in the healthcare sector, and sales of renewable energy products. The company has established key partnerships with leading firms in its sectors, enabling it to leverage synergies and enhance its service offerings. Additionally, Simplex Holdings benefits from recurring revenue streams through maintenance contracts and subscription services, further solidifying its financial stability and growth potential.

Simplex Holdings,Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and margins (TTM ~43% gross, ~19% net, ~26% EBIT) with improving leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.34) and attractive returns (TTM ROE ~20%). Cash conversion is good (FCF ~0.99x net income) but FCF declined (~-6.6% TTM) and revenue growth has slowed (~4.7% TTM), tempering the score.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show strong profitability with healthy margins (about 43% gross margin and ~19% net margin) and solid operating leverage (~26% EBIT margin). Revenue has continued to grow, though at a more moderate pace (TTM growth ~4.7%) versus the strong double-digit growth seen in prior annual periods. Overall, the earnings profile is high-quality and improving over time, with the main weakness being the recent slowdown in top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate and improving: debt-to-equity is ~0.34 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), down materially from higher levels in earlier years, indicating a strengthening capital structure. Equity has grown alongside assets, and returns remain attractive with TTM return on equity around 20%. The key risk is that absolute debt remains meaningful, but the balance sheet trend and profitability provide a solid buffer.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow nearly matching net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.99), suggesting earnings are converting well into cash. However, free cash flow declined in the latest TTM period (about -6.6% growth), and cash flow coverage is not consistently strong across periods, pointing to some volatility in cash timing. Overall cash flow quality is good, but durability is a notch below the income statement strength.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	55.81B	47.39B	40.71B	34.95B	30.58B	27.53B
Gross Profit	24.34B	19.52B	17.45B	14.60B	13.02B	10.76B
EBITDA	17.32B	13.59B	11.46B	9.99B	8.55B	6.83B
Net Income	10.39B	7.78B	6.19B	5.43B	4.21B	2.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	88.14B	79.02B	79.25B	70.27B	66.93B	61.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.74B	13.44B	13.73B	12.83B	13.97B	8.07B
Total Debt	31.25B	20.64B	22.62B	21.26B	21.68B	23.41B
Total Liabilities	35.18B	30.21B	32.16B	28.28B	29.64B	30.22B
Stockholders Equity	52.95B	48.81B	47.09B	41.98B	37.29B	31.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.05B	8.76B	7.34B	3.25B	7.42B	5.02B
Operating Cash Flow	11.25B	9.75B	8.33B	3.73B	7.56B	5.25B
Investing Cash Flow	2.15B	534.00M	-3.67B	-1.44B	-328.00M	-234.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-11.84B	-10.57B	-3.77B	-3.44B	-1.35B	-2.35B

Simplex Holdings,Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1051.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4373, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1051 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 846.45, above the 50-day MA of 944.16, and above the 200-day MA of 1007.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -34.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4373.

Simplex Holdings,Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6532	71 Outperform	¥699.29B	19.22	―	1.30%	25.07%	26.47%
7033	71 Outperform	¥24.79B	13.23	―	2.18%	17.87%	5.31%
2170	69 Neutral	¥57.77B	37.56	―	2.96%	10.63%	7.42%
4792	64 Neutral	¥32.76B	14.32	―	4.39%	2.46%	-31.77%
9556	63 Neutral	¥29.04B	19.22	―	―	16.77%	39.98%
4373	62 Neutral	¥204.09B	19.00	―	1.19%	23.88%	64.21%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Simplex Holdings,Inc. Corporate Events

Simplex Holdings Almost Maxes Out ¥5 Billion Share Buyback Program

Simplex Holdings, Inc. has completed a share buyback program authorized by its board on January 29, 2026, aimed at enhancing capital efficiency and shareholder value. The company repurchased a total of 5,428,100 ordinary shares for approximately ¥4.9999 billion, nearly reaching the approved ceiling of 5.5 million shares and ¥5.0 billion.

The final tranche, executed between February 2 and February 19, 2026 via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, accounted for 1,628,100 shares at a cost of about ¥1.4051 billion. With the buyback now finished ahead of the original May 31, 2026 end date, the reduced free float and increased treasury holdings may support earnings per share and signal management’s confidence in the company’s valuation to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4373) stock is a Hold with a Yen883.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simplex Holdings,Inc. stock, see the JP:4373 Stock Forecast page.

Simplex Holdings Buys Back 3.8 Million Shares in ¥3.6 Billion ToSTNeT-3 Transaction

Simplex Holdings has repurchased 3.8 million of its ordinary shares, equivalent to 1.66% of its outstanding shares (excluding treasury stock), for a total of ¥3.59 billion at ¥946 per share via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction ToSTNeT-3 system on January 30, 2026. The buyback, aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and improving capital efficiency, forms part of a broader board-approved program of up to 5.5 million shares or ¥5 billion through May 31, 2026; major shareholders including President and CEO Hideki Kaneko and co-founders participated as sellers, but the move does not alter the company’s largest shareholder status, indicating a capital policy adjustment without a shift in control.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4373) stock is a Buy with a Yen1029.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simplex Holdings,Inc. stock, see the JP:4373 Stock Forecast page.

Simplex Holdings Sets Terms for Share Buyback and Major Shareholder Sales

Simplex Holdings has approved a share buyback program and set a specific method to repurchase up to 4 million of its ordinary shares, representing up to 1.75% of shares outstanding (excluding treasury shares), via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction ToSTNeT-3 system at the January 29, 2026 closing price in a single session on January 30, 2026. This transaction forms part of a broader board-authorized buyback framework of up to 5.5 million shares or ¥5 billion through May 31, 2026, combining ToSTNeT-3 and on-auction market purchases, and will also facilitate partial share disposals by major shareholders, including President and CEO Hideki Kaneko and co-founders, potentially improving capital efficiency while modestly altering the company’s ownership structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4373) stock is a Hold with a Yen1029.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simplex Holdings,Inc. stock, see the JP:4373 Stock Forecast page.

Simplex Holdings Lifts Full-Year Outlook on Double-Digit Profit Growth and Stock Split

Simplex Holdings reported strong consolidated results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 24.7% year on year to ¥42.5 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent jumping 55.7% to ¥7.3 billion, reflecting robust margin expansion and improved profitability. The company also strengthened its balance sheet, with total assets increasing to ¥88.1 billion and equity attributable to owners of the parent climbing to ¥53.0 billion, while executing a four-for-one stock split in December 2025 and maintaining a zero interim dividend for the current fiscal year. For the full year to March 31, 2026, Simplex lifted its earnings outlook, now projecting revenue of ¥58.0 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥9.7 billion, implying continued double-digit growth and underscoring management’s confidence in sustained demand despite a modest reduction in the equity ratio due to balance sheet expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4373) stock is a Hold with a Yen1029.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simplex Holdings,Inc. stock, see the JP:4373 Stock Forecast page.

Simplex Raises Full-Year Forecast on Strong DX Demand and Strategic Tech Investments

Simplex Holdings has revised upward its consolidated full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, citing steady business performance and robust demand for digital transformation services. The company now expects revenue of ¥58.0 billion and operating profit of ¥14.3 billion, modestly higher than its previous guidance, with profit attributable to owners of parent also nudged up and earnings per share projected to rise, reflecting both higher productivity per engineer and favorable order trends. Management plans to further increase production capacity by hiring additional engineers and consultants in the fourth quarter and is simultaneously ramping up strategic investments in talent and R&D, particularly in generative AI and Web3, under its long-term growth strategy “Vision1000,” while anticipating that higher gross profit will offset these increased costs, underscoring a growth-focused stance that could reinforce its competitive position in the DX market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4373) stock is a Hold with a Yen1029.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simplex Holdings,Inc. stock, see the JP:4373 Stock Forecast page.

Simplex Holdings Launches Up to ¥5 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency

Simplex Holdings has authorized a share buyback of up to 5.5 million ordinary shares, representing as much as 2.41% of its outstanding stock, for a maximum total of ¥5 billion between January 30 and May 31, 2026. Funded entirely from its own cash, the program is intended to enhance shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency while preserving financial stability, with the repurchased shares potentially used for stock-based compensation, as consideration in future M&A transactions, or cancellation; the move also facilitates partial share sales by major shareholders, including President and CEO Hideki Kaneko and co-founders, signaling active capital management amid continued emphasis on growth investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4373) stock is a Hold with a Yen1029.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simplex Holdings,Inc. stock, see the JP:4373 Stock Forecast page.