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Money Forward, Inc. (JP:3994)
:3994

Money Forward (3994) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3994

Money Forward

(3994)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
¥3,828.00
▼(-18.08% Downside)
The score is primarily supported by improving financial performance (2025 profitability and cash-flow inflection alongside continued revenue growth), with moderately positive near-term technicals. The largest offset is valuation risk driven by the very high P/E, and longer-term technicals remain mixed given the price is still below the 100-day and 200-day averages.
Positive Factors
Recurring SaaS revenue & multi-year growth
Stable subscription-based B2B and consumer models drive predictable recurring revenue. Multi-year top-line growth, including +15.1% in 2025, supports scaling gross profit and provides a durable revenue base that can compound as penetration and module adoption increase across customers.
Profitability and cash-flow inflection in 2025
The shift to positive EBITDA, net income, and free cash flow in 2025 indicates the business model can reach self-sustaining economics. If maintained, this improves internal funding capacity, reduces reliance on external capital, and strengthens ability to invest in product and sales for longer-term growth.
Balance-sheet support and improving leverage
A growing equity base and improved debt-to-equity ratio provide financial flexibility as the company scales. Enhanced balance-sheet support lowers bankruptcy risk, helps absorb investment volatility, and positions the firm to fund strategic initiatives or weather downturns without immediate capital raises.
Negative Factors
Operating profit still negative
Despite EBITDA and net income improvements, persistent operating losses signal that core operating efficiency has not fully normalized. Continued negative operating profit can constrain margins over cycles, requiring sustained revenue scale or structural cost improvements to secure durable profitability.
Historic cash-flow volatility
Prior multi-year negative operating and free cash flow show cash conversion has been inconsistent. This legacy volatility raises uncertainty about sustainability of recent positive cash flow, meaning management must demonstrate repeatable conversion across cycles to ensure long-term financial resilience.
High absolute debt levels
Even with improved leverage ratios, meaningful absolute debt increases interest and refinancing risk if growth or margins falter. Elevated debt can limit strategic flexibility, constrain investment choices, and amplify downside in slower revenue scenarios or macro stress periods.

Money Forward (3994) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Money Forward Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMoney Forward, Inc. provides money-related services for individuals and corporations. It offers Money Forward ME, an automatic household account book service; MONEY PLUS for enhancing readers' money literacy and foster awareness of money; Money Forward Mall, a web portal and platform for comparing and applying for financial services, such as credit cards and securities accounts; mirai talk, a channel to resolve customers financial concerns; and Tock pop, an application specialized in coupon information. The company also provides Money Forward Cloud Accounting, a cloud accounting software; Money Forward Cloud Final Report, a cloud-type final tax return software; Money Forward Cloud Invoice, an invoice creation software; Money Forward Cloud Salary, a salary calculation software; Money Forward Cloud Attendance, a time management service for companies; Money Forward Cloud My Number, a my number management system; Money Forward Cloud Expenses, a cloud-type expense reimbursement system; and Money Forward Cloud Fundraising, a service that provides money forward cloud data to financial institutions. In addition, it offers STREAMED, a software specialized in automating accounting bookkeeping; Manageboard, a cloud service that allows to conduct business analysis by importing accounting software data; MF KESSAI, an inter-company postpaid settlement service; BALES, an inside sales outsourcing and consulting service; BALES CLOUD, a cloud-based inside sales management system; BOXIL that provides various information on prices, specifications, and word-of-mouth reviews of various Software-as-a-Service; and Money Forward X, a group that works with various client issues to create services. The company was formerly known as Moneybook Co. and changed its name to Money Forward, Inc. in December 2012. Money Forward, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMoney Forward generates revenue through a subscription-based model for its software services, offering tiered pricing plans that cater to both individual users and businesses. Key revenue streams include monthly and yearly subscriptions for the Money Forward app, accounting software, and additional services such as payroll processing and tax filing. The company also earns revenue through partnerships with financial institutions and other businesses that integrate its services into their offerings. Moreover, Money Forward benefits from a growing ecosystem of affiliated services and products, which enhances customer retention and increases overall earnings.

Money Forward Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials show an improving trajectory: solid multi-year revenue growth (including +15.1% in 2025) with a 2025 inflection to positive net income, positive EBITDA, and positive operating/free cash flow. Offsetting this, operating profit remains negative, historical results and cash flows have been volatile, and debt is still meaningful, keeping the score in the mid-range rather than high.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Revenue growth remains solid over multiple years (including +15.1% in 2025), and gross profit dollars expanded meaningfully as the top line scaled. Profitability is improving: net income turned positive in 2025 after sizable losses in 2022–2024, and operating losses narrowed versus prior years, aided by a sharp swing to positive EBITDA in 2025. Offsetting this, operating profit is still negative in the latest year and the company has a track record of volatile, loss-making results, which keeps overall earnings quality and consistency in the middle tier.
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
The company has a sizable equity base that has grown (equity increased from 2024 to 2025), providing balance-sheet support as the business scales. Leverage looks manageable for a software company: debt-to-equity improved from 2023 (~1.07x) to 2024 (~0.95x), though total debt remains high in absolute terms and ticked up meaningfully versus earlier years. Overall, the balance sheet is reasonably supported by equity, but rising debt levels and still-developing profitability increase risk if operating performance weakens.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash generation improved markedly in 2025, with positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, a strong shift from the negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow in 2024. However, the historical pattern is uneven (several years of negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow), and free cash flow volatility remains a key risk point. The latest year is encouraging, but the durability of cash conversion still needs to be proven through a full cycle.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue43.74B50.35B40.36B30.38B21.48B15.63B
Gross Profit29.32B33.32B27.06B19.08B13.40B10.82B
EBITDA-772.82M8.69B-1.92B-4.13B-7.97B-513.68M
Net Income-5.93B1.59B-6.33B-6.32B-9.45B-1.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets109.14B127.57B106.19B88.28B65.99B56.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments45.33B48.80B50.46B42.52B28.48B37.29B
Total Debt33.43B33.85B35.44B30.37B16.90B8.55B
Total Liabilities58.53B71.70B61.52B53.62B30.90B14.61B
Stockholders Equity38.65B43.84B37.44B28.33B32.63B40.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.003.30B-11.13B-2.92B-8.39B-4.66B
Operating Cash Flow0.004.08B-4.76B2.46B-4.12B-2.33B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-5.34B-9.51B-7.47B-14.78B-5.20B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-433.66M20.35B17.46B9.07B34.80B

Money Forward Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4673.00
Price Trends
50DMA
4317.92
Negative
100DMA
4725.83
Negative
200DMA
4957.95
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-225.49
Positive
RSI
24.98
Positive
STOCH
6.20
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3994, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4673 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4281.25, above the 50-day MA of 4317.92, and below the 200-day MA of 4957.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -225.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.98 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3994.

Money Forward Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
¥107.99B20.132.59%5.22%-6.62%
68
Neutral
¥155.74B75.3727.65%96.11%
65
Neutral
¥181.20B20.3824.24%17.35%74.71%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
58
Neutral
¥185.73B116.28-19.16%19.57%-16.67%
55
Neutral
¥135.74B99.0631.57%
¥98.09B16.721.02%26.47%142.77%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3994
Money Forward
3,347.00
-1,167.00
-25.85%
JP:3697
SHIFT
677.90
-776.60
-53.39%
JP:4432
WingArc1st Inc.
3,130.00
-193.76
-5.83%
JP:4443
Sansan, Inc.
1,230.00
-1,219.00
-49.78%
JP:4478
freee K.K.
2,275.00
-1,060.00
-31.78%
JP:4776
Cybozu, Inc.
2,138.00
-530.79
-19.89%

Money Forward Corporate Events

Money Forward Lifts Full-Year Profit Outlook on Extraordinary Gain
Jan 29, 2026

Money Forward has revised its full-year consolidated financial forecasts for the fiscal year ending November 2026 after recording extraordinary income from a gain on the sale of investment securities in the first quarter. While projections for net sales, SaaS annual recurring revenue and adjusted EBITDA remain unchanged, the company has significantly raised its outlook for profit attributable to owners of parent, narrowing the expected net loss by ¥1.5 billion and improving forecast earnings per share to a smaller loss range. The revision reflects a one-off boost to the bottom line, signaling a stronger profit profile for the current fiscal year despite continuing expectations of an operating loss, and may ease investor concerns over the pace of the company’s path toward sustained profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4423.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward to Book Extraordinary Gain from Sale of Unlisted Investment Stock
Jan 27, 2026

Money Forward has resolved to sell a portion of its investment securities, specifically one unlisted stock, as part of an effort to improve the efficiency and effective utilization of its asset portfolio. The transaction, scheduled for January 29–30, 2026, is expected to generate an extraordinary gain of approximately 1,889 million yen in the first quarter of the fiscal year ending November 2026, though the final amount may vary with exchange rate movements, and the company is still assessing the overall impact on its consolidated earnings forecast for the period.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Again Revises Board Slate to Strengthen Governance and Independence
Jan 27, 2026

Money Forward has revised, for a second time, its proposed management structure for the 15th fiscal year ahead of the February 2026 annual general meeting, following further engagements with capital markets and internal discussions aimed at strengthening corporate governance. The company will retain Hiroaki Yasutake as an external director candidate in place of previously proposed new external director Kohey Takashima, add two new external director candidates, Ken Ashida and Ririko Ueda, and allow long-serving external directors Masaaki Tanaka and Akira Kurabayashi to retire in line with the company’s cumulative term and age-limit rules, thereby reinforcing its emphasis on board independence and compliance with Tokyo Stock Exchange standards for independent officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4452.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Consulting Completes Tender Offer for OutlookConsulting Shares
Jan 21, 2026

Money Forward Consulting, Inc. has completed its tender offer to acquire shares and share acquisition rights of OutlookConsulting Co., Ltd., a Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market-listed company, at a price of 1,800 yen per common share and specified prices for two series of share acquisition rights. The offer, launched on November 13, 2025 and closed on January 20, 2026, was structured without a minimum or maximum acceptance threshold, meaning all tendered shares and rights will be purchased, and was designed to raise Money Forward Consulting’s stake by up to 1,011,249 shares, excluding treasury stock. This transaction consolidates Money Forward Consulting’s ownership position in OutlookConsulting and underscores its strategic push to deepen control over a key growth-market affiliate, with implications for future integration, governance alignment, and expansion of its consulting and financial technology ecosystem.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen5104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward to Issue Up to ¥500 Million in Restricted Stock for Employees and Subsidiaries’ Directors
Jan 14, 2026

Money Forward’s board has approved a plan to issue up to 150,150 new common shares, with a maximum aggregate issue value of 500 million yen, as restricted stock compensation to employees of the company and to directors and employees of its subsidiaries. The final terms, including pricing based on the closing market price prior to a March 2026 board meeting, allotment methods, and individual allocations, will be determined at that time. The restricted stock program is structured into three plans with transfer restriction periods of three, four and five years, during which recipients are generally prohibited from disposing of the shares, and unvested shares may be acquired without compensation if the holder leaves the group without a board-recognized justifiable reason or if performance or time-based conditions are not met. By tying compensation more closely to share performance and imposing multi-year holding requirements, the company aims to better align employee and management incentives with shareholder interests, strengthen retention within the group, and support long-term growth in share price and corporate value, while retaining flexibility to lift transfer restrictions in the event of major corporate restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4059.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Books Extraordinary Gain and Impairments as FY2025 Results Outrun Forecasts
Jan 14, 2026

Money Forward disclosed that it booked 2.046 billion yen in extraordinary income from a gain on change in equity related to a joint venture with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, after the partner’s capital subscription was valued above Money Forward’s book value, while at the same time recognizing substantial extraordinary losses and non-operating expenses tied to impairments on investment securities, an equity-method affiliate, and a provision for doubtful accounts on loans to a subsidiary (the latter two having no impact at the consolidated level where eliminated. Despite these one-off items, the company’s full-year results for the fiscal year ended November 2025 modestly exceeded its latest forecasts in net sales, SaaS ARR and adjusted EBITDA and swung to positive profit attributable to owners of parent, underscoring continued top-line growth and improving profitability versus the prior year, even as impairments highlight valuation and credit risks in parts of its investment and subsidiary portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4059.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Swings to Profit as SaaS Revenue Surges, Targets Further Growth in FY2026
Jan 14, 2026

Money Forward reported consolidated net sales of ¥50.3 billion for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, up 24.7% year on year, driven mainly by a 31.1% increase in SaaS annual recurring revenue to ¥39.3 billion. Adjusted EBITDA surged to ¥4.96 billion, while the company narrowed past operating and ordinary losses to ¥2.65 billion and ¥3.87 billion respectively and swung to a profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥1.59 billion, reflecting improving profitability and scale benefits in its core SaaS businesses. Total assets rose to ¥127.6 billion and equity to ¥40.9 billion, but the equity ratio edged down to 32.0%, and the company maintained its policy of paying no dividends as it prioritizes reinvestment for growth. For the fiscal year ending November 30, 2026, Money Forward forecasts continued top-line expansion with net sales of ¥53.4–57.55 billion and further growth in SaaS ARR to ¥47.5–49.8 billion, alongside a marked increase in adjusted EBITDA to ¥8.0–10.0 billion, although it still projects an operating loss or breakeven and a net loss, indicating ongoing investment and restructuring, including the earlier transfer of shareholdings in Nexsol Co., Ltd. and SMARTCAMP Co., Ltd.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4059.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Consulting Clears FX Regulatory Hurdle for OutlookConsulting Tender Offer
Jan 5, 2026

Money Forward Consulting has announced that regulatory review under Japan’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act for its tender offer to acquire shares of OutlookConsulting Co., Ltd., listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market, has been completed, allowing the company to begin acquiring common shares as of December 27, 2025. The waiting period under the act was shortened by authorities, meaning the tender offer can proceed on the original schedule through January 20, 2026, preserving the planned timeline for the transaction and reducing uncertainty for both Money Forward Consulting and OutlookConsulting shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4573.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Consulting Delays OutlookConsulting Tender Offer to Comply With FEFTA Filing
Dec 25, 2025

Money Forward Consulting has amended its previously announced tender offer for OutlookConsulting after determining it must file a prior notification under Japan’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA) due to a rise in foreign ownership of its parent, Money Forward, Inc. New shareholder data as of November 30, 2025 showed foreign entities hold 50% or more of Money Forward’s common shares, reclassifying the tender offeror as a “foreign investor” and triggering the FEFTA prior notification requirement for acquiring OutlookConsulting shares. The company filed the required notification on December 18, 2025 and, because regulatory review is still ongoing and the statutory waiting period has not expired, has extended the tender offer period to January 20, 2026, signaling a regulatory-driven delay but not a change in strategic intent to acquire the target.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4573.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Revises Board Plan to Ensure Majority of External Directors
Dec 22, 2025

Money Forward has revised its proposed management structure for the 15th fiscal year to further strengthen corporate governance, deciding that external directors will constitute a majority of its board. Following feedback from capital markets, the company will withdraw the nomination of new internal director candidate Yotaro Agari—who will remain an executive officer—and instead nominate three new external directors, while three current external directors retire in line with term limit and age guidelines. The new slate maintains several existing independent external directors and adds three more candidates who meet Tokyo Stock Exchange independence requirements, signaling a stronger emphasis on board independence and alignment with governance best practices ahead of the February 2026 shareholders’ meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4573.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Announces Management Restructure for 2026
Nov 28, 2025

Money Forward, Inc. has announced a significant change in its management structure for the upcoming fiscal year, following recommendations from its Nomination and Compensation Committee. The changes, which include the renomination of several directors and the introduction of new external directors, aim to strengthen the company’s governance and align with its strategic goals. These adjustments are set to be finalized at the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders in February 2026, reflecting the company’s commitment to maintaining robust leadership and compliance with governance guidelines.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4573.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Acquires Michibiku to Enhance Cloud Solutions
Nov 21, 2025

Money Forward, Inc. has announced the acquisition of Michibiku, Inc., making it a wholly-owned subsidiary. Michibiku specializes in digital transformation services for board meetings, offering a cloud-based tool that enhances meeting efficiency and decision-making processes. This acquisition aims to integrate Michibiku’s services with Money Forward Cloud, enriching the product lineup and expanding the customer base through Money Forward’s established network.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4573.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Money Forward Initiates Tender Offer for Full Acquisition of OutlookConsulting
Nov 12, 2025

Money Forward Cloud Corporate Performance Management Consulting, Inc. has announced a tender offer to acquire all shares of OutlookConsulting Co., Ltd., aiming to make it a wholly owned subsidiary. This move is part of a strategic transaction to consolidate ownership and potentially delist the target company from the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market, ensuring fairness and protecting minority shareholders’ interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3994) stock is a Hold with a Yen4573.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Money Forward stock, see the JP:3994 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 17, 2026