CERES INC. (3696) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥18.69B
• Dividend Yield: 2.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 308.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 10.23%
• EPS Growth: 152.86%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 669
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 9.11
• Shares Outstanding: 12,116,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 204,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 308,363
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.76
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,746.00 ▼(-10.14% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is supported by improving financial performance (better profitability/ROE and manageable leverage) and an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield). These positives are tempered by notably weak technicals, with the stock below key moving averages and negative momentum indicators.

Positive Factors

Improving profitability and ROE

A sustained rebound in net margin and ROE through 2024–2025 indicates the company restored earnings power and operating leverage. Durable margin improvement increases retained earnings, supports reinvestment or dividends, and reduces reliance on balance-sheet fixes to drive shareholder returns.

Moderate, improving leverage

Leverage falling toward 0.7x of equity while equity has grown strengthens balance-sheet resilience. Moderate debt levels give financial flexibility for capex, acquisitions or shock absorption and lower refinancing risk if improved earnings are sustained over the medium term.

Strong free cash flow conversion in 2025

High free cash flow and ~89% conversion of net income in 2025 demonstrate the business can generate cash to fund operations, dividends and debt paydown. If sustained, this materially increases strategic optionality and reduces reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

Uneven revenue trajectory

A dip in revenue in 2025 after prior growth signals inconsistent top-line momentum, reducing visibility on sustainable growth. Durable returns may therefore depend on margin expansion rather than reliable organic revenue growth, increasing execution risk over the medium term.

Historically volatile cash generation

Significant FCF swings across years undermine predictability of internal funding for capex, dividends and debt reduction. Volatility suggests working-capital or timing issues that, if recurring, could force cyclical borrowing or asset sales during downturns, constraining strategy.

Sizable absolute debt as assets expanded

Although leverage improved, the company still carries sizable debt in absolute terms. If profitability weakens or revenue softness persists, leverage metrics could deteriorate quickly, limiting capital allocation choices and increasing vulnerability to higher interest rates or tighter credit markets.

CERES INC. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ceres Inc. engages in the mobile and financial services in Japan. The company offers smartphone advertising media services with point site name Moppy that provides its users with given points that can be exchanged for cash or electronic money; and content media, which operates sites in various fields, such as smartphone games and real estate for investment, as well as provides the latest information. It also provides cryptocurrency/blockchain related, online factoring, and investment development services. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

CERES INC. generates revenue through a combination of digital advertising services, media management, and digital content delivery. The company earns money by providing advertising solutions that help businesses increase their visibility and customer engagement through mobile and online platforms. Key revenue streams include fees from advertising placements, media management services, and content distribution. Additionally, CERES INC. may establish partnerships with other technology and media companies to enhance its service offerings and reach a broader audience, thereby contributing to its earnings.

CERES INC. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving: profitability and returns strengthened into 2024–2025 (net margin ~8.4%, ROE ~18.8%) and leverage is moderate with a better debt-to-equity trend. Offsets are uneven revenue momentum (2025 revenue -2.46% after prior growth) and historically volatile cash flow despite strong 2025 free-cash-flow conversion (~89% of net income).

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully since 2022–2023, with net margin rising from near-breakeven (2022) to ~8.4% in 2025, alongside solid operating profitability (~7.9% operating margin in 2025). Revenue growth is uneven: strong growth in 2023–2024, followed by a slight decline in 2025 (-2.46%), suggesting a less consistent top-line trajectory. Gross margin remains healthy overall but has fluctuated (down from 2024’s higher level), indicating some variability in cost structure or mix.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate: debt is ~0.71x equity in 2025 (improved from ~0.85x in 2024), while equity has grown, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity have rebounded strongly (about 18.8% in 2025 vs low levels in 2022–2023), reflecting better earnings power. The key watch item is that debt has remained sizable as assets expanded, so sustained profitability is important to keep leverage trending favorably.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved sharply in 2025, with free cash flow up strongly (+40.8%) and free cash flow covering a large portion of net income (~89%). However, cash flow has been volatile across years (including negative free cash flow in 2022 and weaker conversion in 2024), which reduces confidence in consistency. Operating cash flow is positive in recent years, but the history of swings suggests working-capital or investment timing can materially impact reported cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	30.41B	29.66B	27.71B	24.07B	20.54B	23.40B
Gross Profit	13.85B	12.78B	13.34B	10.59B	8.06B	7.77B
EBITDA	5.35B	2.83B	2.88B	1.33B	1.12B	4.32B
Net Income	2.36B	2.50B	1.48B	451.15M	46.61M	2.78B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.28B	37.50B	32.98B	25.92B	22.60B	20.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.19B	15.69B	14.13B	11.09B	9.29B	9.14B
Total Debt	7.56B	9.42B	9.52B	7.36B	5.89B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	19.60B	23.54B	20.25B	15.87B	12.90B	10.41B
Stockholders Equity	12.05B	13.30B	11.15B	9.19B	8.88B	9.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.26B	1.77B	397.00M	557.52M	-314.19M	983.77M
Operating Cash Flow	1.32B	1.99B	722.00M	1.06B	101.78M	1.16B
Investing Cash Flow	776.00M	824.53M	-518.00M	-738.91M	-1.69B	-787.23M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.85B	-1.06B	3.27B	1.23B	1.19B	408.15M

CERES INC. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1943.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3696, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1943 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1701.30, above the 50-day MA of 1846.59, and below the 200-day MA of 2130.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -82.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3696.

CERES INC. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5331	78 Outperform	¥193.86B	15.80	8.27%	2.68%	-2.45%	7.31%
3106	75 Outperform	¥161.09B	13.38	―	2.66%	-1.63%	67.13%
4206	73 Outperform	¥259.43B	13.86	―	3.90%	2.65%	7.16%
5355	72 Outperform	¥4.49B	9.99	―	2.79%	3.32%	18.84%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
3696	62 Neutral	¥18.69B	7.47	―	2.88%	10.23%	152.86%
3401	53 Neutral	¥332.99B	-4.10	-20.43%	3.72%	-8.20%	―

CERES INC. Corporate Events

Ceres Books ¥849 Million Extraordinary Loss on Crypto Subsidiary, No Hit to Group Results

Ceres Inc. has booked an extraordinary loss of ¥849 million in its non-consolidated results for the year ended December 31, 2025, after recognizing an impairment on shares held in its subsidiary Mercury Inc. The writedown follows a decline in Mercury’s net assets, as the CoinTrade crypto exchange operator remains in a growth investment phase and recorded a net loss for the fiscal year.

The company stressed that this loss will be eliminated at the consolidated level and will not affect its consolidated financial results for 2025. The move clarifies that while the crypto-focused subsidiary is still loss-making as it invests for expansion, the financial impact on the wider Ceres group remains limited for stakeholders evaluating overall group performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3696) stock is a Hold with a Yen1920.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CERES INC. stock, see the JP:3696 Stock Forecast page.

Ceres Misses Profit Forecasts as Crypto Slump and D2C Weakness Offset Sales Gain

Ceres Inc. reported fiscal 2025 consolidated results that exceeded its earlier net sales forecast but fell short on all major profit metrics, as revenue rose to ¥29.6 billion versus guidance of ¥28.4 billion. Despite strong performance in its Point business, earnings pressure translated into lower EBITDA, operating profit, ordinary profit, and profit attributable to owners, driving earnings per share down to ¥216.61 from the projected ¥291.04.

Management attributed the profit shortfall to weaker-than-expected results in the D2C business after a price revision for flagship product Pitsole reduced sales volume, while declines in altcoin prices at Mercury Inc. cut crypto trading volumes and triggered valuation losses. The ongoing slump in the broader crypto asset market also hurt results at equity-method affiliate bitbank, Inc., leading to share-of-loss recognition and highlighting Ceres’s earnings sensitivity to cryptocurrency market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3696) stock is a Hold with a Yen1920.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CERES INC. stock, see the JP:3696 Stock Forecast page.

Ceres Withdraws 2026 Plan and Unveils Ambitious 2030 Growth Strategy

Ceres Inc. has withdrawn its previous Medium-Term Management Plan 2026 after portfolio restructuring and adverse conditions in its blockchain business, including the sale of YUMEMI Inc. and a sharp decline in altcoin prices that undermined key assumptions. The company has decided that the earlier plan no longer reflects its operating environment or growth strategy and will instead reorient around a newly defined roadmap.

The new Medium-Term Management Plan 2030 covers fiscal years 2026 to 2030 and aims to leverage Ceres’ integrated business model, blockchain investments, and M&A track record to outpace market growth. Key initiatives include expanding its point business via Moppy and Point Income, scaling its D2C segment with new brands and strategic acquisitions, and growing financial services by strengthening crypto exchanges Mercury and bitbank, while enhancing AI-driven credit management and marketing at labol, with targets of ¥60 billion in net sales and ¥12 billion in EBITDA by 2030.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3696) stock is a Hold with a Yen1920.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CERES INC. stock, see the JP:3696 Stock Forecast page.

Ceres Inc. Unveils FY2025 Results and Medium-Term 2030 Plan

Ceres Inc. reported its consolidated results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, outlining performance across its mobile service and financial service segments. The company also presented its Medium-Term Management Plan 2030, a five-year roadmap intended to guide growth and strategic priorities, alongside issuing earnings forecasts for fiscal 2026 that signal management’s expectations for business momentum and operational direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3696) stock is a Hold with a Yen1920.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CERES INC. stock, see the JP:3696 Stock Forecast page.

Ceres boosts earnings and dividend in 2025, guides for strong sales growth in 2026

Ceres reported fiscal 2025 consolidated net sales of ¥29.66 billion, up 7.1% year on year, with EBITDA jumping 71.4% and profit attributable to owners of parent surging 68.6% to ¥2.50 billion. Operating profit grew modestly, while ordinary profit declined due to weaker equity-method investment income, but stronger earnings lifted the equity ratio to 35.5% and supported higher year-end dividends of ¥80 per share, including an extra dividend.

Cash and cash equivalents increased to ¥13.11 billion on the back of stronger operating cash flow, and the company continued to adjust its portfolio, adding three new consolidated subsidiaries while deconsolidating one. For fiscal 2026, Ceres forecasts a 20.4% rise in net sales to ¥35.7 billion and higher operating and ordinary profit, though it expects lower EBITDA and profit attributable to owners, and plans to normalize the dividend to ¥60 per share after this year’s enhanced payout.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3696) stock is a Hold with a Yen1920.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CERES INC. stock, see the JP:3696 Stock Forecast page.

CERES Board Effectiveness Review Confirms Strong Governance While Setting New Improvement Priorities

CERES INC. reported the results of its latest evaluation of Board of Directors effectiveness, conducted via a detailed self-assessment questionnaire completed by all nine directors and covering areas such as board composition, operations, discussion quality, monitoring, and sustainability and human capital. The board received generally high scores across all categories, with an overall average of 4.38 out of 5, reflecting improvements from prior-year initiatives including the appointment of an additional independent outside director with technology and branding expertise and efforts to secure more time and depth for strategic discussions. Despite confirming that board effectiveness is at an appropriate level, the company identified priority issues for the coming year, including further raising the rigor of discussions on critical matters, strengthening group governance and monitoring of subsidiaries, and better integrating sustainability and human capital into board agendas, alongside concrete next steps such as enhancing risk-based decision-making, standardizing subsidiary reporting, improving materials distribution, and potentially upgrading evaluations through third-party involvement.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3696) stock is a Hold with a Yen2315.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CERES INC. stock, see the JP:3696 Stock Forecast page.