Hogy Medical Co (3593) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥144.24B
• Dividend Yield: 1.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 173.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 649.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: -2.06%
• EPS Growth: -79.17%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,408
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Instruments & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 22,535,463
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 159,390
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 173,800
• PEG Ratio: -1.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥6,857.00 ▲(2.50% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: a conservative balance sheet is outweighed by notably weaker TTM margins and a sharp drop in free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, but valuation is a major headwind due to an extremely high P/E and modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage provides financial flexibility for capex, working capital or downturns. A debt-to-equity around 0.17 means the company can fund operations without heavy interest burden, preserving credit capacity and lowering solvency risk over the medium term.

Recurring consumable revenue

Core business of sterile single-use supplies creates stable, repeatable demand from hospitals. This recurring consumption anchors predictable revenue streams tied to procedure volumes and procurement cycles, supporting steady cash inflows over months to years.

Stable gross margins

Consistent gross margins near the low-30% range indicate durable unit economics in manufacturing and pricing power on core products. Even with operating pressure, stable gross margin supports potential margin recovery if SG&A or overhead are better managed.

Negative Factors

Shrinking net profitability

A steep drop in net margin signals weakening earnings power and margin compression that could persist without structural cost or mix changes. Low profitability limits reinvestment capacity and raises sensitivity to demand shocks and input cost inflation.

Sharp free cash flow decline

A ~72% FCF decline and FCF conversion ~0.2x of net income reduce the firm's ability to fund growth, pay dividends, or delever. Persistent weak cash conversion would constrain strategic flexibility and raises funding risk for investments or cyclical downturns.

Top-line and EPS deterioration

Declining revenue and near-collapse in EPS reflect weakening demand or margin pressure and hurt scale economies. Continued top-line erosion undermines long-term profitability prospects and hinders ability to restore ROE and shareholder returns absent product or market shifts.

Hogy Medical Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hogy Medical Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medical supplies to healthcare facilities in Japan. It offers kit products for surgery applications; all-in-one kits for pre/mid/post-surgery; non-woven products, including gowns, personal protective equipment and wearables, drapes, packaged products, instrument table covers, and wraps; and Tigalyer, a multi-layer fabric. The company also provides sterilization products, such as hybrid Mekkin bags, hybrid Mekkin bags ID layered type, and autoclave forceps stand caps; Mekkin cards, which are detection cards used to judge the sterilization process when sterilizing in an autoclave; ethylene oxide gas cards that are detection cards used to judge the sterilization process when sterilizing using ethylene oxide gas; and indicator tapes for autoclave sterilization. In addition, it offers ME equipment operation management system; narcotics/poisons box, an automatic drug reading management system using radio frequency identification; and Securea, a polyurethane sponge for endoscopic surgery. The company was formerly known as Hogy Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hogy Medical Co.,Ltd. in 1987. Hogy Medical Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Hogy Medical Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its medical devices and diagnostic products, which are distributed to healthcare institutions and practitioners. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes direct sales, partnerships with distributors, and long-term contracts with healthcare organizations. Key revenue streams include sales from surgical instruments, imaging technologies, and monitoring equipment. Additionally, Hogy Medical Co. may benefit from service agreements and maintenance contracts associated with its products. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and technology firms further enhance its market reach and drive sales growth, contributing significantly to its overall earnings.

Hogy Medical Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: a strong, low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.17) offsets weakening profitability and cash conversion. TTM revenue is slightly down (~-1.4%), net margin is very thin (~1.5%) versus FY2025 (~3.9%), and free cash flow fell sharply (~-71.8% YoY) with low cash conversion (~0.20x net income).

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully versus prior annual periods. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), revenue is slightly down (about -1.4%) and net margin is very thin (~1.5%), a sharp drop from FY2025’s ~3.9% and earlier years that were materially higher. Gross margin has been relatively stable around the low-30% range recently, but operating profitability is lower than the 2021–2023 period, pointing to cost pressure and/or weaker pricing/mix. Overall, the income statement shows weakening earnings power despite steady top-line scale.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity is ~0.17 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (still modest even after increasing from earlier years). Equity remains large relative to assets, providing a solid cushion. The main weakness is low returns on equity in TTM (~0.8%), driven by the earnings slowdown rather than balance-sheet stress. Overall financial flexibility appears strong, with leverage not currently a central risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become less reliable recently. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow remains positive, but free cash flow has fallen sharply (down ~71.8% year over year) and is low relative to net income (~0.20x), suggesting heavier investment, working-capital drag, or weaker cash conversion. FY2025 showed strong cash flow (healthy free cash flow and good cash conversion), so the TTM step-down is the key concern. Overall, cash flow is positive but currently less supportive of shareholder value creation than in prior periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	39.14B	39.10B	38.98B	36.78B	36.50B
Gross Profit	12.62B	12.49B	15.74B	15.42B	15.33B
EBITDA	8.75B	10.71B	9.84B	10.25B	10.18B
Net Income	1.52B	2.80B	4.32B	4.37B	4.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	97.89B	100.04B	102.18B	98.97B	105.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.00B	19.42B	18.86B	14.36B	20.55B
Total Debt	13.67B	5.82B	8.89B	10.00B	330.00M
Total Liabilities	23.56B	13.92B	18.50B	18.97B	9.69B
Stockholders Equity	74.32B	86.11B	83.61B	79.96B	95.88B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.53B	4.32B	7.78B	5.30B	-686.00M
Operating Cash Flow	11.76B	7.12B	9.18B	8.50B	6.85B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.92B	-3.26B	-1.95B	-3.81B	-6.95B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.46B	-3.89B	-3.14B	-11.05B	-2.50B

Hogy Medical Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6690.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3593, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6690 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6687.50, above the 50-day MA of 6383.80, and above the 200-day MA of 5062.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 75.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3593.

Hogy Medical Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7817	76 Outperform	¥189.51B	21.67	6.47%	3.16%	1.96%	22.78%
7730	71 Outperform	¥149.95B	30.34	―	2.73%	5.10%	-26.13%
3154	67 Neutral	¥18.23B	12.93	―	2.46%	8.52%	25.85%
7716	66 Neutral	¥182.50B	27.08	5.66%	2.66%	5.43%	-20.67%
3593	55 Neutral	¥144.24B	649.74	0.78%	1.31%	-2.06%	-79.17%
7702	54 Neutral	¥10.70B	68.49	―	3.85%	0.38%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Hogy Medical Co Corporate Events

Hogy Medical Presents Q3 FY03/26 Financial Results Briefing

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. held a financial results briefing on January 29, 2026, to present its performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026. While specific figures were not disclosed in the release, the briefing underscores the company’s ongoing communication with investors about its financial condition and business outlook, signaling continued transparency and engagement with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen6991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Posts Profit Decline but Maintains Full-Year Outlook and Dividend Plan

Hogy Medical reported consolidated net sales of ¥28.7 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, a 4.3% year-on-year decline, with operating profit down 38.7% to ¥2.09 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent falling 47.4% to ¥1.44 billion. Despite the earnings deterioration and lower comprehensive income, the company’s financial position remains solid, with an equity-to-asset ratio rising to 78.8% and net assets per share edging up, while it maintains its full-year forecast of modest 0.3% sales growth and a sharp drop in operating profit, alongside an annual dividend forecast of ¥47.50 per share, signaling a cautious but stable stance for shareholders amid profit pressure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen6991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Corrects GMO Share Count in Supportive Tender Offer Notice

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. has issued an amendment to its prior notice supporting a tender offer for its shares by TCG2509 Co., Ltd., correcting the disclosed number of shares managed by major shareholder Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC (GMO). The revision increases GMO’s tendered share count from 2,237,900 shares (10.38% ownership) to 2,256,100 shares (10.46% ownership), and an amended tender agreement has been executed to reflect this higher stake, reinforcing the feasibility of the tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out procedures, as well as GMO’s planned indirect acquisition of up to 5% economic interests in a Carlyle-managed fund via Cayman Islands limited partnership interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Discloses Amendment to Tender Offer Documentation After Share Count Error

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. has disclosed that TCG2509 Co., Ltd., the bidder in an ongoing tender offer for Hogy Medical’s common stock, has amended its tender offer documentation to correct clerical errors in the reported number of shares held by institutional investor Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC. The correction requires amendments to previously submitted tender offer registration statements and related public notices, and Hogy’s disclosure, made at the request of TCG2509 under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, ensures investors are working with accurate shareholding information as the tender process continues.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Updates Support Statement as Tender Offer Gathers Additional Backing

Hogy Medical has amended its previously announced statement supporting a tender offer for its shares by TCG2509 Co., Ltd., to reflect that the bidder has now also entered into a tender offer agreement with Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC. This additional agreement requires that all Hogy Medical shares held by that investor be tendered, further bolstering the certainty and feasibility of the transaction and the bidder’s plan to make Hogy Medical a wholly owned subsidiary via the tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out procedures, which could materially change the company’s ownership structure and governance for existing shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

TCG2509 Amends Tender Offer Documents for Hogy Medical After New Agreement and Clerical Corrections

TCG2509 Co., Ltd., which launched a tender offer on December 18, 2025 for the common shares of Hogy Medical Co., Ltd., has submitted an amendment to its tender offer registration statement and related public notice after entering into a tender agreement with Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC on December 25, 2025 and identifying clerical errors in the original documents. While the disclosure formally revises previously announced tender offer documentation in line with Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, TCG2509 states that the amendment does not alter the core terms and conditions of the tender offer itself, suggesting that the transaction’s fundamental structure and timeline for Hogy Medical shareholders remain unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Endorses Carlyle Group Affiliate’s Tender Offer for Privatization

Hogy Medical’s Board of Directors has approved the tender offer from TCG2509 Co., Ltd., an affiliate of Carlyle Group, which aims to acquire all shares and take the company private by delisting its stock. This strategic move could position the company for a streamlined operational structure under Carlyle’s management, potentially impacting shareholders and fostering new opportunities for growth within the private sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Expresses Support for Privatization via Tender Offer

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. has announced its Board of Directors’ approval in support of a tender offer for its shares by TCG2509 Co., Ltd., aiming to take the company private. This move is expected to delist the company’s shares, enabling strategic restructuring under the Carlyle Group, which manages significant global investments and provides expertise in buyout investments and privatization.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Revises Dividend Policy and Ends Shareholder Benefits Amid Tender Offer Developments

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. has announced its decision to forgo dividend payments for the current fiscal year and abolish its shareholder benefit program starting from 2027, pending the successful completion of a tender offer for its shares by TCG 2509 Co., Ltd. This strategic move aligns with plans for potential delisting, ensuring fairness among shareholders, and consolidating its positioning as part of the transaction’s framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

TCG2509 Initiates Tender Offer for Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. Stock

TCG2509 Co., Ltd. has announced the launch of a tender offer to acquire the common stock of Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. at a price of 6,700 yen per share, with the purchase period set between December 18, 2025, and February 5, 2026. This move could significantly impact Hogy Medical’s shareholding structure and market operations, potentially affecting stakeholders and positioning the company within its industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Announces Strategic Leadership Changes

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. has announced key personnel changes effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing organizational development and strategic leadership. These appointments reflect the company’s focus on bolstering its business administration and corporate strategy divisions to support its long-term growth and industry leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Considers Privatization Amid Carlyle Discussions

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. is in discussions with The Carlyle Group regarding potential privatization to enhance its corporate value. While no official decision has been made, the company is considering a tender offer price of JPY 6,700 per share, and will announce any significant developments in a timely manner.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen5957.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.

Hogy Medical Co. Clarifies Stance on Privatization Reports

Hogy Medical Co., Ltd. addressed recent media reports about its potential privatization, clarifying that while it is exploring various strategic options to enhance corporate value, no decision has been made regarding privatization. This announcement highlights the company’s ongoing efforts to evaluate strategies for improving its market position, though it remains non-committal at this stage.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3593) stock is a Hold with a Yen6235.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hogy Medical Co stock, see the JP:3593 Stock Forecast page.