KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. (3543) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥131.16B
• Dividend Yield: 1.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 183.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.19
• Revenue Growth: 16.70%
• EPS Growth: -0.37%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 533
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 33.79
• Shares Outstanding: 46,271,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 248,190
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 183,563
• PEG Ratio: -11.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,100.00 ▲(2.14% Upside)

The score is supported primarily by solid financial performance (profitability, improving leverage, and strong free cash flow), but it is meaningfully weighed down by weak technical conditions (price below key moving averages and negative momentum). Valuation is acceptable but not compelling at a ~22x P/E with a ~1.9% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Sustained, growing free cash flow provides durable internal funding for store investment, maintenance, and selective expansion without heavy external financing. This strengthens resilience through cycles, supports shareholder returns, and enables reinvestment in customer experience.

Improving leverage

A steadily lower debt-to-equity ratio materially improves financial flexibility and reduces interest exposure. For a restaurant chain, this enables more conservative balance-sheet management, funding for remodels/franchise support, and less vulnerability to cost-of-debt shocks.

Solid operating and net margins

Margins well above many casual-dining peers indicate operational efficiencies, pricing power, and favorable unit economics. Persistent margin strength supports return on capital, ability to absorb inflationary cost increases, and long-term profitability sustainability.

Negative Factors

Margin compression trend

A multi-year erosion in margins signals structural cost pressure or adverse mix changes. If sustained, it can erode unit economics, limit reinvestment capacity, and force price increases that could suppress traffic or margin recovery without operational efficiency gains.

Weak operating cash flow coverage

Subpar cash conversion versus reported earnings suggests timing or working-capital strain. Over several quarters this can constrain capital allocation, increase sensitivity to liquidity stress, and require reliance on FCF normalization or external funding for growth and dividends.

Balance sheet still carries meaningful debt

Despite improvement, remaining leverage can limit strategic optionality in downturns, raise interest cost exposure, and restrict ability to pursue opportunistic expansion or large-scale renovation programs without increasing financial risk.

KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. operates a chain of coffee shops in Japan, China, and Taiwan. As of May 31, 2022, the company operated 966 stores. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of breads, and other food and equipment; and sub-lease of stores. In addition, the company provides consultancy services for the construction of new stores. KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is based in Nagoya, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

KOMEDA Holdings generates revenue primarily through its extensive network of coffee shops, where it sells a variety of beverages, baked goods, and light meals. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to customers in-store, as well as potential franchise fees from its franchised locations. Key revenue streams include coffee sales, food items, and possibly merchandise related to its brand. Significant partnerships may include collaborations with food suppliers and beverage distributors, which help maintain product quality and availability. Additionally, the company's focus on customer experience and brand loyalty contributes to repeat business, enhancing its overall earnings.

KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals: healthy TTM revenue growth (4.3%), strong profitability (TTM operating margin ~16.7%, net margin ~11.1%), improving leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.89x), and strong/growing free cash flow (¥11.3B, +9.4%). Offsetting factors are margin compression versus 2022–2024 and only moderate operating cash flow coverage of earnings (~0.82x).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth is healthy (4.3%), and profitability remains solid for the restaurant industry (TTM operating margin ~16.7%, net margin ~11.1%). However, margins have trended down versus prior annual periods (gross, operating, and EBITDA margins have compressed from 2022–2024 levels), suggesting rising cost pressure or a less favorable mix even as sales grow.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved steadily, with debt-to-equity moving from ~1.72x (2021) to ~0.89x in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and equity has grown over time. Returns on equity are steady and respectable (~13% in TTM), but the balance sheet still carries meaningful debt for the size of the business, which can reduce flexibility if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is sizeable (¥11.3B) and growing (+9.4%), and free cash flow closely tracks reported earnings (about 0.89x of net income). The main weakness is that operating cash flow does not fully cover reported earnings (coverage ~0.82x in TTM), indicating working-capital timing or cash conversion that is good but not consistently best-in-class.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.80B	47.06B	43.24B	37.84B	33.32B	28.84B
Gross Profit	16.29B	15.68B	14.46B	12.99B	12.04B	10.36B
EBITDA	11.32B	10.43B	10.35B	9.69B	8.90B	6.96B
Net Income	6.10B	5.81B	5.97B	5.42B	4.93B	3.59B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	107.53B	105.74B	102.77B	100.05B	97.43B	109.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.03B	10.39B	7.92B	6.68B	6.21B	7.30B
Total Debt	42.56B	43.98B	44.48B	45.56B	46.62B	59.96B
Total Liabilities	59.27B	60.12B	59.66B	59.43B	59.82B	74.70B
Stockholders Equity	48.08B	45.62B	43.11B	40.54B	37.56B	34.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.27B	10.05B	10.33B	8.99B	6.86B	8.88B
Operating Cash Flow	12.63B	11.23B	11.44B	10.26B	8.15B	10.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.50B	642.00M	-1.96B	-1.58B	9.71B	-11.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-9.29B	-9.51B	-8.24B	-8.25B	-18.98B	1.89B

KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3035.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3543, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3035 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2927.65, above the 50-day MA of 2986.12, and above the 200-day MA of 2969.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -47.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3543.

KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3097	72 Outperform	¥162.88B	23.56	―	0.80%	16.91%	12.17%
8179	69 Neutral	¥129.42B	26.17	9.66%	1.17%	8.16%	-6.01%
7630	66 Neutral	¥143.18B	50.66	―	1.71%	9.51%	6.29%
3543	63 Neutral	¥131.16B	21.16	―	1.88%	16.70%	-0.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
2695	58 Neutral	¥135.03B	37.53	―	0.63%	4.32%	11.78%
7412	41 Neutral	¥116.82B	165.73	―	―	-12.01%	―

KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

KOMEDA Holdings Delivers Double-Digit Revenue Growth and Raises Dividend Outlook

KOMEDA Holdings reported strong results for the nine months ended November 30, 2025, with revenue rising 22.3% year-on-year to ¥42.4 billion and operating profit up 4.5% to ¥7.0 billion, while net income attributable to owners of the parent increased 6.4% to ¥4.7 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥103.53. The balance sheet also strengthened, with total assets reaching ¥107.5 billion and the equity ratio improving to 44.7%, and the company confirmed its full-year guidance for fiscal 2026, which projects double-digit growth in revenue and profits and a higher annual dividend of ¥60 per share, aided by the addition of POON RESOURCES PTE. LTD. to the scope of consolidation, signaling continued expansion and enhanced returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3543) stock is a Buy with a Yen3354.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3543 Stock Forecast page.