Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. (3498) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥177.70B
• Dividend Yield: 1.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.77
• Revenue Growth: 46.91%
• EPS Growth: 62.91%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 436
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): 98.76
• Shares Outstanding: 24,523,558
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 830,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,026,673
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 445.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥9,020.00 ▲(22.72% Upside)

The score is driven mainly by solid operating performance and profitability trends, tempered by weak and volatile cash generation and elevated leverage. Technical indicators are bearish and weigh on near-term attractiveness, while a reasonable P/E and modest dividend provide some valuation support.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue scaling

Sustained large revenue expansion over five years reflects durable ability to originate, execute and sell development projects across cycles. This scale supports negotiating power with contractors and investors, strengthens pipeline visibility and underpins recurring fee opportunities.

Material margin improvement

Marked margin expansion signals improved project mix, pricing power and operating leverage. Higher and sustainable margins increase retained earnings for reinvestment, cushion against cost shocks and indicate strengthening underlying profitability beyond one-off deals.

High ROE and equity growth

Rapid equity growth paired with high return on equity demonstrates efficient capital deployment in development projects. Strong ROE reflects value creation from core activities and supports capacity to fund future projects or expand asset-management fee businesses.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Sustained high leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining financial flexibility. In a capital-intensive development model, elevated debt amplifies execution risk and could limit ability to pursue opportunistic projects during tighter funding conditions.

Weak, volatile cash conversion

Inconsistent operating cash flow and very low free cash conversion mean reported profits rarely convert into discretionary cash. This undermines capacity to deleverage, pay dividends, or self-fund development without recurring external financing, creating long-term funding risk.

Uneven growth and project timing cyclicality

Revenue and earnings are lumpy due to project completions and disposition timing, exposing the business to cyclical market risk. This unevenness reduces revenue predictability, complicates cash planning and increases reliance on successful project execution to sustain growth.

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. engages in real estate consulting businesses in Japan. The company develops and operates power generation business through natural energy sources, including solar, wind, and biomass power plants. It also develops and operates apartment hotels under FAV HOTEL name. In addition, the company offers logistics and warehousing facilities, such as cold storage, automated, and dry warehouses. Further, it engages in the provision of social infrastructure to healthcare facilities, as well as overseas business. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through its real estate development projects and renewable energy ventures. The company develops and sells residential and commercial properties, earning income from property sales and leasing activities. In the renewable energy sector, it constructs and operates solar power plants, generating revenue from the sale of electricity. The firm's consulting services also contribute to its earnings, providing strategic advice and project management for urban and infrastructure developments. Partnerships with local governments and private entities enhance its project portfolio and revenue potential.

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue scaling and margin expansion (net margin ~10.6% in 2025 vs. ~1.7% in 2020) support profitability, but the balance sheet is meaningfully leveraged (debt-to-equity ~1.88x) and cash-flow quality is weak/volatile (negative operating cash flow in 2022–2024; 2025 FCF only ~0.4B and low vs. earnings).

Income Statement

Kasumigaseki Capital shows strong top-line momentum and expanding profitability. Revenue scaled from 8.0B (2020) to 96.5B (2025), with 2025 revenue growth accelerating to 16.8% after a slower 2024. Margins improved materially over the period, with 2025 gross margin at ~37.8% and net margin at ~10.6% (vs. ~1.7% net margin in 2020), indicating better operating leverage and stronger earnings power. The main watch-out is that growth has been uneven year-to-year (notably the sharp deceleration in 2024), which can signal cyclicality or project timing effects.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet supports growth but is meaningfully leveraged. Total debt increased to 68.9B (2025) alongside asset growth to 121.7B, and leverage remains elevated with debt-to-equity at ~1.88x (2025). Equity has grown (36.6B in 2025 vs. 3.9B in 2020), and returns are strong with return on equity at ~28.0% in 2025, but leverage has been a recurring feature (debt-to-equity above ~1.5x in most years and peaking above ~2.5x in 2023). This creates sensitivity to funding conditions and execution risk if cash generation does not keep pace with expansion.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality is the weakest area and appears volatile. Operating cash flow was negative in 2022–2024, then turned positive in 2025 (6.9B), but free cash flow remains thin at 0.4B in 2025 and declined sharply versus the prior year. In 2025, free cash flow is low relative to earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.06), suggesting profits are not consistently converting into discretionary cash, potentially due to working-capital swings or reinvestment needs. The improvement in 2025 is constructive, but the multi-year volatility keeps overall cash-flow strength below average.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	96.50B	96.50B	65.69B	37.28B	20.78B	14.30B
Gross Profit	36.44B	36.44B	18.56B	10.10B	6.18B	4.41B
EBITDA	19.88B	19.97B	9.30B	4.64B	2.15B	1.41B
Net Income	10.25B	10.25B	5.02B	2.05B	1.02B	793.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	121.69B	121.69B	77.55B	43.78B	30.44B	15.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.02B	24.02B	11.06B	5.90B	5.39B	3.61B
Total Debt	68.87B	68.87B	41.89B	28.28B	18.41B	7.51B
Total Liabilities	83.50B	83.50B	49.81B	32.10B	21.08B	10.13B
Stockholders Equity	36.61B	36.61B	27.03B	11.18B	9.28B	4.88B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.52B	396.00M	-10.35B	-8.39B	-11.90B	-700.06M
Operating Cash Flow	-1.66B	6.89B	-8.45B	-7.91B	-11.69B	972.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.05B	-18.56B	-4.81B	-1.15B	-436.58M	-1.64B
Financing Cash Flow	21.08B	24.70B	18.41B	9.49B	13.90B	2.20B

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7350.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3498, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7350 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7666.50, below the 50-day MA of 7716.40, and below the 200-day MA of 7945.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -116.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3498.

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3232	74 Outperform	¥54.62B	9.24	―	2.97%	-2.75%	-3.17%
9003	72 Outperform	¥272.82B	13.53	―	2.30%	-1.88%	-9.94%
3167	70 Outperform	¥149.33B	14.27	―	3.17%	3.99%	20.63%
9048	66 Neutral	¥339.51B	12.36	―	2.26%	6.13%	-23.73%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
3498	60 Neutral	¥177.70B	14.04	―	1.58%	46.91%	62.91%
9010	60 Neutral	¥107.26B	20.30	―	1.40%	4.80%	30.05%

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Kasumigaseki Capital Completes Restricted Stock Issue for Employee Compensation

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has completed payment procedures for the issuance of 31,572 new ordinary shares as restricted stock compensation to 130 company employees, at an issue price of 7,840 yen per share for a total of 247.52 million yen. The transaction, previously approved by the board in December 2025, strengthens the company’s equity-based remuneration framework, aligning employee incentives more closely with shareholder interests and supporting long-term corporate value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen8665.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital Posts Strong Revenue Growth and Upgraded Balance Sheet, Affirms Robust FY2026 Outlook

Kasumigaseki Capital reported strong top-line growth for the three months ended November 30, 2025, with net sales surging 86.5% year on year to ¥28.46 billion, while operating profit declined 5.2% to ¥2.81 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent edged up 1.6% to ¥2.03 billion. The company’s financial position strengthened markedly, as total assets climbed to ¥164.36 billion and equity-to-asset ratio improved to 40.3%, reflecting an expanded balance sheet and higher net assets. The firm maintained its dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2026, planning a total annual dividend of ¥165 per share after a recent 2-for-1 stock split, indicating continued shareholder returns despite near-term margin pressure. For the full fiscal year, Kasumigaseki Capital is projecting robust growth, forecasting net sales of ¥150 billion, operating profit of ¥26.5 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥16.5 billion, underscoring management’s confidence in sustained expansion and earnings momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Hold with a Yen7718.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital Issues New Shares for Employee Incentive Plan

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has announced the issuance of new shares as part of a restricted stock compensation plan aimed at incentivizing directors and employees to improve business performance and align their interests with shareholders. This move is expected to enhance employee engagement in management and promote long-term commitment, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen11206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital to Issue New Shares via Third-Party Allotment

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has announced that it will issue 691,500 new shares through a third-party allotment, with the allotee confirming its intention to subscribe to all shares. This move is part of a broader strategy involving public offerings and secondary offerings, aimed at increasing the total number of issued shares to 24,502,758, potentially enhancing the company’s capital base and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen11206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital’s Strategy on Investment Unit Reduction

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has announced its approach and policy regarding the reduction of investment units to encourage retail investor participation and invigorate the stock market. The company recently conducted a 2-for-1 share split and will continue to evaluate market trends and shareholder composition to guide future decisions on investment unit reductions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen11206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital Adjusts Convertible Bond Conversion Price

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its euro-yen convertible bonds with stock acquisition rights maturing in 2029. This adjustment follows the approval of a year-end dividend, impacting the conversion price according to the provisions set for these bonds, and reflects the company’s financial strategy following a recent stock split.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen11206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital Announces New Executive Structure

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has announced a new executive structure following its 14th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. The restructuring includes several new appointments, such as Yoshihisa Furukawa, Eisuke Suga, Hidetaka Shitara, and Tatsuo Higuchi as Directors and Senior Executive Officers, and Ryoko Munetsugu and Yasuto Hamanishi as Outside Directors. This change aims to strengthen the company’s leadership and governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen11206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.

Kasumigaseki Capital Adjusts Convertible Bond Conversion Price

Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. has announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its euro-yen convertible bonds with stock acquisition rights maturing in 2029. This adjustment, effective November 13, 2025, is due to the issue price of new shares being below the market price, impacting the conversion price according to the bond’s terms.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3498) stock is a Buy with a Yen11206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kasumigaseki Capital Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:3498 Stock Forecast page.