Tokai Holdings Corporation (3167) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥158.50B
• Dividend Yield: 3.17%
• Average Volume (3M): 649.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 3.99%
• EPS Growth: 20.63%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 4,732
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Conglomerates
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 139,679,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 370,790
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 649,813
• PEG Ratio: 1.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,288.00 ▲(19.15% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (strong TTM revenue growth, better profitability, and de-leveraging), tempered by weaker cash conversion versus earnings. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, but elevated RSI reduces confidence in near-term upside. Valuation is broadly fair with a reasonable P/E and a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong TTM revenue growth

A 33.7% TTM revenue rebound indicates durable demand recovery across core segments. Sustained top-line expansion improves scale, supports fixed-cost absorption and underpins future margin gains if maintained, making revenue the primary driver of durable earnings improvement.

Diversified recurring business model

Multiple utilities-like businesses (LP gas, broadband, water) generate recurring, contract-based revenue and allow cross-selling to a regional customer base. That structural mix produces steady cash inflows and resilience to single-segment demand shocks over the medium term.

Improving leverage and healthy ROE

Falling debt-to-equity from prior years shows active deleveraging, reducing financial risk and interest sensitivity. Combined with an ~11.6% ROE, this signals efficient capital use and a stronger balance sheet to support reinvestment or withstand funding-cost increases.

Negative Factors

Weak cash conversion

FCF equaling ~38% of net income and operating cash coverage around ~0.42 indicate earnings are not translating efficiently into cash. This structural conversion gap can limit debt paydown, dividend growth and capital investment, and raises sensitivity to working-capital swings.

Modest, variable net margins

Net margins are low relative to many peers and have shown variability year-to-year. Modest margins reduce buffers against volume or cost shocks, making long-term profitability more sensitive to commodity, procurement or competitive pressures across its energy and services segments.

Meaningful remaining debt exposure

Although leverage has improved, the company still carries significant debt that keeps it exposed to rate rises or profit compression. Ongoing debt service obligations may constrain strategic investments and heighten refinancing risk in a higher-rate environment.

Tokai Holdings Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TOKAI Holdings Corporation engages in energy, information and communications, and related businesses in Japan and internationally. The company supplies liquefied petroleum gas for individuals, automotive, and corporations; solar power; piped natural gas; and other high-pressure gases; provides electricity to individuals and corporations; and offers water-related facility renovation services under the TOKAI WiLL brand, as well as directly operates two service stations and 13 wholesale service stations. It also offers Internet access services under the @T COM and TOKAI Network Club names, and mobile phone communications services, as well as operates 15 mobile shops; outsourcing services, such as co-location, mailing system, back-up, and cloud platforms; system development services, including consulting, construction, operation, and maintenance to various industries and fields; and mobile virtual network operator services. In addition, the company provides CATV services, as well as fiber-optic internet and telephone services; bottled water delivery services under the Ulunom and Fujishigen brands; security services ranging from monitoring services for senior citizens to surveillance services for factories, stores, and offices; life and property insurance agency services; office furniture, photocopiers, etc.; management systems for buildings and condominiums; wedding, reception, and restaurant facilities; and nursing care, ship repair, and bridal services. Further, it constructs detached and single-family homes, apartment complexes, and office buildings; engages in real estate business; design, constructs, sells, and installs housing equipment for home builders and construction companies; leases shops and offices; and designs, installs, and maintains air conditioning and sanitation equipment. TOKAI Holdings Corporation was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Shizuoka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tokai Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its utility services in electricity and gas distribution, which constitute a significant portion of its earnings. The company also earns income from its telecommunications segment, providing internet and phone services to both residential and business customers. Additionally, Tokai has a retail division that sells a variety of consumer goods, contributing to its overall revenue. Strategic partnerships with other utility providers and technology firms further bolster its service offerings and market reach, while ongoing investments in renewable energy initiatives align with growing consumer demand for sustainable options, enhancing its competitive edge and revenue potential.

Tokai Holdings Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement momentum is improving with strong TTM revenue growth (+33.7%) and better margins, and the balance sheet shows de-leveraging (debt-to-equity ~0.56) with healthy ROE (~11.6%). The main drag is cash-flow quality: free cash flow is positive but only ~38% of net income, indicating weaker earnings-to-cash conversion.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded sharply (+33.7%), and profitability improved versus FY2025 (net margin ~4.5% vs ~3.8%; EBIT margin ~7.2% vs ~6.3%). Gross margin remains solid (~39%). Offsetting this, net margins are still modest for the peer group and have shown some variability over the last several years, indicating earnings are not consistently scaling with revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and has improved: debt-to-equity declined to ~0.56 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~0.70 in FY2025 and ~0.81 in FY2023, while equity has grown over time. Returns on equity are healthy (~11.6% TTM), but the business still carries a meaningful debt load, leaving some sensitivity to higher funding costs or profit pressure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~¥26.9B and free cash flow of ~¥10.3B, and free cash flow growth is strong versus the prior period. However, cash conversion is a key weakness: free cash flow is only ~38% of net income in TTM, and operating cash flow coverage remains around ~0.42, suggesting earnings are not translating into cash as efficiently as desired and may be volatile year-to-year.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	247.69B	243.48B	231.51B	230.19B	210.69B	196.73B
Gross Profit	96.90B	93.74B	89.95B	86.06B	85.21B	82.87B
EBITDA	35.89B	33.15B	30.84B	31.14B	31.19B	30.66B
Net Income	11.09B	9.22B	8.48B	6.46B	8.97B	8.81B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	217.16B	211.11B	205.30B	193.34B	184.47B	178.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.09B	5.64B	5.76B	4.36B	4.74B	5.58B
Total Debt	54.46B	65.09B	65.53B	64.91B	61.25B	57.41B
Total Liabilities	117.27B	115.26B	114.00B	111.04B	105.53B	102.92B
Stockholders Equity	97.37B	93.47B	89.08B	80.22B	77.24B	74.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.27B	11.43B	13.70B	7.23B	7.46B	19.30B
Operating Cash Flow	26.87B	25.80B	30.07B	21.19B	20.81B	32.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-16.05B	-15.83B	-18.83B	-14.15B	-14.59B	-17.07B
Financing Cash Flow	-10.77B	-10.13B	-9.67B	-7.46B	-6.91B	-14.06B

Tokai Holdings Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1081.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3167, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1081 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1188.30, below the 50-day MA of 1138.34, and above the 200-day MA of 1053.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 20.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3167.

Tokai Holdings Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
5331	78 Outperform	¥196.36B	16.00	8.27%	2.68%	-2.45%	7.31%
3106	75 Outperform	¥159.97B	13.29	―	2.66%	-1.63%	67.13%
4206	73 Outperform	¥255.32B	13.64	―	3.90%	2.65%	7.16%
3167	68 Neutral	¥158.50B	14.25	―	3.17%	3.99%	20.63%
3105	65 Neutral	¥276.76B	19.76	8.35%	2.73%	3.35%	810.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
7224	63 Neutral	¥172.49B	16.71	7.75%	2.84%	0.26%	14.29%

Tokai Holdings Corporation Corporate Events

Tokai Holdings Reshapes Top Management, Elevating Subsidiary Leadership Roles

Tokai Holdings Corporation has announced a reshuffle of its top management and executive ranks, highlighted by the move of current Representative Director Junichi Yamada to become a non‑executive director of the holding company while assuming the role of President and Representative Director of core subsidiary Tokai Gas Corporation from April 1, 2026. The company is also adjusting its internal leadership structure by appointing Satoshi Masuda as Executive Officer and Managing Executive Officer with responsibility for the General Affairs Division, Group IT Management Department and Information Security Promotion Department, while several executives, including Yamada and Senior Managing Executive Officer Kazuhiro Maruyama, will retire from their current executive positions at the holding company on March 31, 2026. Further changes at major group company Tokai Communications Corporation include the appointment of Yuji Kondo as Representative Director and Senior Managing Executive Officer and the retirement of Masuda from his executive roles there, signaling a broader realignment of leadership across the Tokai group intended to strengthen management focus within key subsidiaries and refine governance at the holding level.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1284.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Raises FY2026 Dividend Forecast on Improved Earnings Outlook

Tokai Holdings has revised its dividend forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, raising the planned year-end dividend by ¥2 to ¥19 per share, resulting in an expected total annual dividend of ¥36 per share including the interim payment made in November 2025. The increase follows an upward revision of the company’s earnings outlook and underscores management’s commitment to maintaining a stable 40–50% payout ratio while signaling stronger operating performance and an enhanced return profile for shareholders compared with the previous fiscal year’s ¥34 per-share total dividend.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1284.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Raises Profit Outlook Despite Lower Sales Forecast for FY2025

Tokai Holdings has revised its consolidated full-year forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, projecting lower net sales of ¥246 billion compared with its previous estimate but expecting higher profitability, with operating profit raised to ¥18.3 billion, ordinary profit to ¥18.7 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥10.6 billion, resulting in a higher expected EPS of ¥81.39. The improved profit outlook, driven mainly by lower-than-expected expenses in its energy, information and communication, and CATV businesses, suggests enhanced cost efficiency and margin resilience across its core operations, which may strengthen the company’s financial footing despite a modest top-line downgrade.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1284.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Hits Record Profits, Lifts Earnings and Dividend Forecasts on Strong Customer Growth

Tokai Holdings reported record-high results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 2.4% year-on-year to ¥177.4 billion and operating profit jumping 27.0% to ¥12.3 billion, surpassing ¥10 billion for the first time since its founding. Ordinary profit and profit attributable to owners of parent also hit record levels, driven by growth in corporate information and communications services, strong orders in construction, equipment and real estate, a larger customer base, and disciplined cost control. The company’s total active customer accounts grew by 41,942 during the period to 3.465 million, exceeding its annual plan as gas, CATV and aqua services all added users. Reflecting lower-than-expected expenses in its energy, information and communications, and CATV operations, Tokai raised its full-year forecasts for operating profit, ordinary profit and net income despite trimming its sales outlook, and lifted its year-end dividend forecast by ¥2 to ¥19 per share, implying an annual payout of ¥36 and underscoring a commitment to stable shareholder returns under its policy of maintaining a 40–50% dividend payout ratio.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1284.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Lifts Profit Outlook and Dividend on Strong Nine-Month Results

Tokai Holdings reported consolidated net sales of ¥177.4 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 2.4% year on year, with operating profit rising 27.0% to ¥12.3 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent climbing 33.1% to ¥7.5 billion, reflecting improved profitability and a stronger earnings base. Total assets increased to ¥217.2 billion and the equity ratio inched up to 44.8%, indicating a modest strengthening of the balance sheet, while the company maintained an interim dividend of ¥17 per share and raised its full-year dividend forecast to ¥36, alongside upgraded full-year guidance calling for record-high profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥10.6 billion, a 15.0% increase, underscoring management’s confidence in sustained earnings growth and enhanced shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1284.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

TOKAI Holdings Reports Progress on Ongoing Share Repurchase Program

TOKAI Holdings Corporation has disclosed the latest progress of its ongoing share repurchase program authorized by its board in August 2025, reporting that it bought back 277,000 shares of common stock for approximately ¥311 million via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026. Under the broader buyback authorization of up to 2.2 million shares or ¥2 billion through March 31, 2026, the company has cumulatively repurchased 1,361,600 shares for about ¥1.44 billion as of the end of January, signaling a continued commitment to capital return that may support shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1284.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program

Tokai Holdings Corporation has reported the status of its ongoing share repurchase program, announcing that it bought back 262,200 shares of its common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, at a total cost of ¥278.3 million. This buyback is part of a broader board-approved program, authorized in August 2025, to repurchase up to 2.2 million shares or ¥2.0 billion by March 31, 2026; as of December 31, 2025, the company had cumulatively repurchased 1,084,600 shares for approximately ¥1.13 billion, signaling a continued capital policy focused on shareholder returns and potentially supporting its share price and capital efficiency metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Buy with a Yen1164.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Reports Progress on Stock Repurchase Program

Tokai Holdings Corporation announced the status of its stock repurchase program, revealing that it has repurchased 281,400 shares of its common stock at a cost of ¥294,686,700 between November 1 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader initiative authorized by the Board of Directors to repurchase up to 2,200,000 shares by March 31, 2026, aiming to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Hold with a Yen1102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Reports Record Financial Growth in 2025

Tokai Holdings Corporation reported record-high financial results for the six months ending September 30, 2025, with a 51% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent. This growth was driven by an increase in group customers and strategic expansions in its business sectors. The company aims to achieve record highs in sales and profits for the fiscal year ending March 2026, marking the final year of its Medium-Term Management Plan 2025, by strengthening competitiveness and pursuing M&A and regional expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Hold with a Yen1102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Holdings Reports Strong Financial Growth for First Half of 2025

Tokai Holdings Corporation reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for the six months ended September 30, 2025, with net sales increasing by 3.0% and profit attributable to owners of the parent rising by 51.1% compared to the previous year. This growth reflects the company’s strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies, positioning it strongly in its industry and indicating positive implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3167) stock is a Hold with a Yen1102.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Holdings Corporation stock, see the JP:3167 Stock Forecast page.