Nomura Real Estate Holdings (3231) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥939.17B
• Dividend Yield: 3.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 3.52%
• EPS Growth: -17.58%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7,695
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 13.56
• Shares Outstanding: 917,895,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,551,950
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,333,623
• PEG Ratio: 0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,073.33
• Price Target Upside: 13.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,039.00 ▲(10.08% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow) and elevated leverage alongside a sharp reported TTM revenue contraction, which outweigh solid margins. Technicals are moderately supportive on a medium-term basis, and valuation/dividend yield provide a modest offset.

Positive Factors

Strong underlying profitability margins

Consistently healthy TTM margins indicate the company captures strong development and operating spreads. Durable margins provide a cushion against cyclical revenue volatility, support reinvestment or dividends, and reflect underlying operational efficiency in development and leasing businesses.

Diversified revenue mix with recurring streams

A three-pronged model (for-sale development, leased income, and fee-based services) reduces reliance on cyclical home or asset sales. Recurring rental and management fees create steadier revenue and lessen earnings volatility across real estate cycles, supporting medium-term cash stability.

Fee-based management and services scale

A sizable property and facility management business generates predictable, low-capital-intensity fees that compound with scale. This structural income supports margin stability, cross-selling into development/leasing, and provides durable cash flow even when new project sales slow.

Negative Factors

Elevated financial leverage

A high and rising debt-to-equity ratio reduces balance sheet flexibility and raises refinancing and interest risks, especially if rates stay elevated. This limits the company's ability to fund development pipelines or absorb timing shocks, pressuring strategic optionality over months.

Weak cash generation and deep negative FCF

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow increases dependence on external financing to fund projects and working capital. Over a medium-term horizon this raises liquidity and funding risk, constraints on organic growth, and sensitivity to capital market access or higher borrowing costs.

Sharp reported revenue contraction

An extreme TTM revenue drop signals timing or execution issues in development sales or asset disposals and reduces visibility into forward earnings. If sustained, this undermines recurring revenue scaling and complicates debt servicing and investment planning across the real estate cycle.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. is a leading Japanese real estate company engaged in a variety of sectors, including residential, commercial, and logistics properties. The company operates through multiple segments such as residential development, leasing, property management, and real estate investment. Nomura Real Estate is dedicated to providing innovative housing solutions and high-quality commercial spaces, contributing to urban development and sustainability.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomura Real Estate Holdings generates revenue primarily through the development and sale of residential properties, leasing of commercial and retail spaces, and property management services. The residential segment accounts for a significant portion of its revenue by delivering housing units to consumers and investors. In addition, the commercial leasing segment generates steady income from long-term leases with businesses. The company also earns fees from property management services and real estate investment activities. Strategic partnerships with local governments, financial institutions, and other developers enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, while also allowing for joint ventures that can result in shared revenue streams.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement profitability is solid (TTM gross ~34%, EBITDA ~17%, net ~8%), but overall quality is pressured by a very sharp reported TTM revenue decline (-86.5%), meaningfully higher leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~2.26x), and weak cash generation (TTM operating cash flow -¥160.9B; free cash flow -¥316.6B).

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for the industry, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) margins holding up (gross margin ~34%, EBITDA margin ~17%, net margin ~8%). However, the biggest concern is growth: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue shows a sharp contraction (reported revenue growth of -86.5%) and net income also stepped down versus the most recent annual period, pointing to a weaker near-term earnings trajectory despite still-healthy underlying margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is meaningfully levered. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~2.26x (up from ~1.65–2.06x in prior annual periods), which reduces flexibility in a slower demand or higher-rate environment. Equity returns are acceptable (TTM ROE ~8.6%), but the rising leverage profile and large absolute debt load relative to equity are notable risks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weak spot. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is negative (-¥160.9B) and free cash flow is also deeply negative (-¥316.6B), following mixed and volatile cash flow in prior years (including negative operating cash flow in several annual periods). While free cash flow growth is shown as positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the absolute level of cash burn and inconsistent conversion of earnings into cash increase funding and liquidity dependence.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	757.64B	734.72B	654.74B	645.05B	580.66B
Gross Profit	266.60B	244.47B	222.66B	205.31B	183.06B
EBITDA	139.85B	132.56B	120.19B	110.30B	96.36B
Net Income	74.83B	68.16B	64.52B	55.31B	42.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.69T	2.25T	2.11T	2.04T	1.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	140.32B	102.96B	61.38B	102.91B	100.39B
Total Debt	1.55T	1.19T	1.12T	1.02T	1.01T
Total Liabilities	1.94T	1.56T	1.45T	1.42T	1.33T
Stockholders Equity	750.18B	691.28B	653.96B	619.69B	584.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-251.43B	4.87B	-86.87B	16.18B	-109.17B
Operating Cash Flow	-84.09B	70.88B	-42.81B	52.79B	-63.50B
Investing Cash Flow	-203.36B	-83.64B	-62.90B	-46.28B	-55.79B
Financing Cash Flow	318.46B	39.92B	65.67B	-9.62B	112.38B

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 943.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3231, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 943.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1019.59, below the 50-day MA of 976.03, and above the 200-day MA of 901.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 15.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3231.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8804	78 Outperform	$753.76B	12.64	10.73%	2.94%	-19.09%	16.31%
8830	76 Outperform	¥4.01T	20.08	8.82%	0.97%	0.49%	12.19%
1766	74 Outperform	¥199.66B	11.86	―	2.33%	6.06%	40.37%
2337	67 Neutral	¥178.17B	10.25	16.39%	2.38%	7.21%	112.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
3003	65 Neutral	¥1.40T	12.22	12.91%	3.25%	45.15%	19.80%
3231	57 Neutral	¥939.17B	15.91	8.38%	3.68%	3.52%	-17.58%

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Real Estate Raises Full-Year Dividend Forecast on Stronger Earnings Outlook

Nomura Real Estate Holdings has revised its forecast for the fiscal year-end dividend, raising the planned payout from ¥18 to ¥22 per share and lifting the total annual dividend forecast from ¥36 to ¥40 per share. Citing stronger operating results and a higher likelihood of meeting full-year earnings targets, the company said the new forecast implies an annual dividend that is ¥6 higher than the prior year on a stock-split–adjusted basis, signaling increased shareholder returns and confidence in its earnings outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3231) stock is a Hold with a Yen1122.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Real Estate Holdings stock, see the JP:3231 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Real Estate Posts Profit Drop for Nine Months but Lifts Full-Year Revenue Outlook

Nomura Real Estate Holdings reported a modest 1.7% increase in operating revenue to ¥581.6 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, but profits declined sharply, with operating profit down 18.7% to ¥80.3 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent falling 31.2% to ¥42.9 billion, reflecting weaker profitability despite top-line growth and resulting in lower earnings per share. The company’s total assets expanded to ¥2.84 trillion while the shareholders’ equity ratio slipped to 26.3%, and it revised its dividend and full-year forecasts, now guiding for a 25.4% rise in full-year operating revenue to ¥950 billion and slight growth in profit attributable to owners of the parent to ¥75 billion, implying expectations of a stronger performance in the final quarter even as the interim results highlight margin pressure and a more leveraged balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3231) stock is a Hold with a Yen1122.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Real Estate Holdings stock, see the JP:3231 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Reports Mixed Half-Year Results Amid Profit Decline

Nomura Real Estate Holdings reported a mixed performance for the first half of the fiscal year 2025, with operating revenue increasing by 4.3% to 397,749 million yen, while profits saw a decline. Operating profit decreased by 16.3%, and profit attributable to owners of the parent fell by 26.2%. This downturn in profits is attributed to changes in business profit definitions and market conditions. Despite the profit decline, the company maintains a stable financial position with total assets of 2,775,077 million yen and a shareholders’ equity ratio of 27.0%. The company has also announced a stock split and adjusted its dividend forecasts accordingly. The forecast for the full fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, anticipates a 24.1% increase in operating revenue, indicating a positive outlook for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3231) stock is a Hold with a Yen1017.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Real Estate Holdings stock, see the JP:3231 Stock Forecast page.