Nomura Real Estate Holdings (3231) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥1.06T
• Dividend Yield: 3.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 3.52%
• EPS Growth: -17.58%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 7,695
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 13.56
• Shares Outstanding: 917,927,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,551,950
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,333,623
• PEG Ratio: 0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥1,083.33
• Price Target Upside: 14.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 88.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥933.91B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,187.00 ▲(25.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/30/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/30/26

The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow) and elevated leverage alongside a sharp reported TTM revenue contraction, which outweigh solid margins. Technicals are moderately supportive on a medium-term basis, and valuation/dividend yield provide a modest offset.

Positive Factors

Healthy operating margins

Sustained gross, EBITDA and net margins near industry-leading levels provide an operational buffer against cyclical revenue swings. Strong margins support internal funding for maintenance and selective investment, and help preserve profitability during slower sales periods.

Diversified business model

The firm earns from property development, recurring leasing income and fee-based management. This mix reduces single-cycle reliance: development drives growth while leasing and service fees provide steadier recurring cash inflows and client relationships across cycles.

Acceptable returns on equity

A near-mid single-digit ROE indicates the group is generating reasonable returns on shareholders' capital versus peers. When combined with solid margins and diversified income, this suggests operational competence and the ability to deliver shareholder returns over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Large negative operating and free cash flows materially weaken financial flexibility. Persistent cash burn forces reliance on external financing or asset sales, constrains reinvestment in projects or asset maintenance, and elevates liquidity risk through the business cycle.

High leverage

A rising debt-to-equity ratio above 2x indicates elevated leverage that reduces balance sheet resilience. Higher leverage increases interest and refinancing exposure, limits capacity to pursue new developments, and amplifies downside risk if property cash flows weaken.

Sharp revenue contraction

An extreme reported revenue decline signals significant project timing, recognition shifts or demand weakness, undermining revenue visibility. Such contraction compresses scale benefits and makes sustaining margins, cash generation, and backlog-driven growth more uncertain.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. is a leading Japanese real estate company engaged in a variety of sectors, including residential, commercial, and logistics properties. The company operates through multiple segments such as residential development, leasing, property management, and real estate investment. Nomura Real Estate is dedicated to providing innovative housing solutions and high-quality commercial spaces, contributing to urban development and sustainability.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomura Real Estate Holdings generates revenue primarily through the development and sale of residential properties, leasing of commercial and retail spaces, and property management services. The residential segment accounts for a significant portion of its revenue by delivering housing units to consumers and investors. In addition, the commercial leasing segment generates steady income from long-term leases with businesses. The company also earns fees from property management services and real estate investment activities. Strategic partnerships with local governments, financial institutions, and other developers enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, while also allowing for joint ventures that can result in shared revenue streams.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement profitability is solid (TTM gross ~34%, EBITDA ~17%, net ~8%), but overall quality is pressured by a very sharp reported TTM revenue decline (-86.5%), meaningfully higher leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~2.26x), and weak cash generation (TTM operating cash flow -¥160.9B; free cash flow -¥316.6B).

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for the industry, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) margins holding up (gross margin ~34%, EBITDA margin ~17%, net margin ~8%). However, the biggest concern is growth: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue shows a sharp contraction (reported revenue growth of -86.5%) and net income also stepped down versus the most recent annual period, pointing to a weaker near-term earnings trajectory despite still-healthy underlying margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is meaningfully levered. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~2.26x (up from ~1.65–2.06x in prior annual periods), which reduces flexibility in a slower demand or higher-rate environment. Equity returns are acceptable (TTM ROE ~8.6%), but the rising leverage profile and large absolute debt load relative to equity are notable risks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weak spot. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is negative (-¥160.9B) and free cash flow is also deeply negative (-¥316.6B), following mixed and volatile cash flow in prior years (including negative operating cash flow in several annual periods). While free cash flow growth is shown as positive in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the absolute level of cash burn and inconsistent conversion of earnings into cash increase funding and liquidity dependence.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	767.35B	757.64B	734.72B	654.74B	645.05B	580.66B
Gross Profit	251.33B	266.60B	244.47B	222.66B	205.31B	183.06B
EBITDA	128.04B	139.85B	132.56B	120.19B	110.30B	96.36B
Net Income	55.37B	74.83B	68.16B	64.52B	55.31B	42.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.84T	2.69T	2.25T	2.11T	2.04T	1.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	150.54B	140.32B	102.96B	61.38B	102.91B	100.39B
Total Debt	1.76T	1.55T	1.19T	1.12T	1.02T	1.01T
Total Liabilities	2.09T	1.94T	1.56T	1.45T	1.42T	1.33T
Stockholders Equity	746.52B	750.18B	691.28B	653.96B	619.69B	584.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-316.59B	-251.43B	4.87B	-86.87B	16.18B	-109.17B
Operating Cash Flow	-160.91B	-84.09B	70.88B	-42.81B	52.79B	-63.50B
Investing Cash Flow	-199.09B	-203.36B	-83.64B	-62.90B	-46.28B	-55.79B
Financing Cash Flow	377.68B	318.46B	39.92B	65.67B	-9.62B	112.38B

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 943.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3231, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 943.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1094.58, below the 50-day MA of 1037.05, and above the 200-day MA of 924.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 28.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.04 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3231.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8804	78 Outperform	¥908.50B	15.45	10.73%	2.94%	-19.09%	16.31%
8934	73 Outperform	¥137.65B	8.22	17.98%	2.93%	84.20%	137.87%
8830	73 Outperform	¥4.94T	22.46	8.82%	0.97%	0.49%	12.19%
2337	67 Neutral	¥193.93B	11.15	16.39%	2.38%	7.21%	112.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
3003	65 Neutral	¥1.58T	13.75	12.91%	3.25%	45.15%	19.80%
3231	57 Neutral	¥1.06T	18.02	8.38%	3.68%	3.52%	-17.58%

Nomura Real Estate Holdings Corporate Events

Nomura Real Estate Raises Full-Year Dividend Forecast on Stronger Earnings Outlook

Nomura Real Estate Holdings has revised its forecast for the fiscal year-end dividend, raising the planned payout from ¥18 to ¥22 per share and lifting the total annual dividend forecast from ¥36 to ¥40 per share. Citing stronger operating results and a higher likelihood of meeting full-year earnings targets, the company said the new forecast implies an annual dividend that is ¥6 higher than the prior year on a stock-split–adjusted basis, signaling increased shareholder returns and confidence in its earnings outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3231) stock is a Hold with a Yen1122.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Real Estate Holdings stock, see the JP:3231 Stock Forecast page.

Nomura Real Estate Posts Profit Drop for Nine Months but Lifts Full-Year Revenue Outlook

Nomura Real Estate Holdings reported a modest 1.7% increase in operating revenue to ¥581.6 billion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, but profits declined sharply, with operating profit down 18.7% to ¥80.3 billion and profit attributable to owners of the parent falling 31.2% to ¥42.9 billion, reflecting weaker profitability despite top-line growth and resulting in lower earnings per share. The company’s total assets expanded to ¥2.84 trillion while the shareholders’ equity ratio slipped to 26.3%, and it revised its dividend and full-year forecasts, now guiding for a 25.4% rise in full-year operating revenue to ¥950 billion and slight growth in profit attributable to owners of the parent to ¥75 billion, implying expectations of a stronger performance in the final quarter even as the interim results highlight margin pressure and a more leveraged balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3231) stock is a Hold with a Yen1122.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomura Real Estate Holdings stock, see the JP:3231 Stock Forecast page.