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Monogatari Corporation (JP:3097)
:3097
Japanese Market

Monogatari Corporation (3097) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3097

Monogatari Corporation

(3097)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
¥5,528.00
▲(25.35% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/03/25
Monogatari Corporation's strong financial performance, characterized by revenue growth and a stable balance sheet, is the primary driver of its stock score. The technical analysis indicates a strong upward trend, although overbought signals suggest caution. The valuation reflects a relatively high P/E ratio, indicating the stock may be overvalued. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained high revenue growth (18% per Fundamentals) signals durable demand for Monogatari’s dining concepts. Strong top-line expansion supports franchise royalty growth, funds reinvestment in openings and menu innovation, and underpins long-term scalability and earnings resilience.
Franchise + Company-owned Model
A mixed model of company-owned and franchised restaurants with a recognized brand (Yakiniku King) creates recurring fee revenue and scalable expansion. Franchising reduces capital intensity per new location and lets the company monetize brand strength over time.
Balance Sheet Strength
Improved leverage and a solid equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund openings or support franchisees while limiting refinancing risk. A ~15% ROE indicates effective capital use, helping sustain investments and shareholder returns through cycles.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Volatility
Volatile free cash flow and a low free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio reduce predictability of internal funding for store rollouts, dividends, or franchise support. This weakens execution certainty for expansion and increases reliance on external financing in some periods.
Operating Margin Pressure
Despite a high gross margin (~65%), slipping EBIT/EBITDA margins point to rising operating costs or adverse mix. Persistent margin pressure would limit reinvestment capacity, compress free cash flow, and require structural efficiency gains to preserve returns.
Geographic Concentration
Heavy concentration in the Japanese casual dining market exposes Monogatari to domestic demand cycles, demographic trends, and sector-specific regulation. Limited geographic diversification raises vulnerability to local shocks and caps optionality for sustained growth abroad.

Monogatari Corporation (3097) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Monogatari Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Monogatari Corporation operates restaurant chain and specialty stores in Japan and internationally. The company is also involved in the management of franchise chain business. As of August 01, 2018, it operated approximately 459 stores in Japan, including 253 directly operated stores and 206 franchise stores; and 16 stores internationally, including 13 directly operated stores and 3 franchise stores. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Toyohashi, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMonogatari Corporation generates revenue through several key streams. Firstly, the company earns significant income from the sale of animated series and films, both domestically and internationally. This includes licensing agreements with streaming platforms and television networks. Secondly, revenue is derived from video game sales, including both physical and digital formats, as well as in-game purchases. Additionally, the company profits from merchandise sales related to its popular franchises, including toys, apparel, and collectibles. Strategic partnerships with other media companies and distributors also enhance its revenue potential, as these collaborations can lead to broader distribution channels and co-production opportunities.

Monogatari Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Monogatari Corporation demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with a stable balance sheet. The company has improved leverage ratios and a robust return on equity. However, cash flow generation, while improving, shows volatility in free cash flow growth, indicating potential areas for cash management enhancement.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Monogatari Corporation has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 4.01% increase in the latest year, maintaining a healthy gross profit margin of approximately 65%. The net profit margin is stable at around 5%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased, suggesting potential areas for operational improvement.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.38, reflecting a stronger equity position and reduced leverage risk. Return on equity remains robust at 15.29%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at a solid 54.41%, indicating a stable financial structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow has increased, supporting a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.92. However, free cash flow growth is volatile, with a significant increase in the latest year but previously negative growth. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, suggesting potential challenges in converting earnings to cash.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue123.92B107.16B92.27B73.28B64.02B
Gross Profit80.64B70.14B60.23B47.82B42.11B
EBITDA14.28B12.58B10.48B8.64B6.39B
Net Income6.16B5.64B4.69B3.73B2.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets74.03B61.53B50.01B46.20B47.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.52B12.24B7.35B8.46B14.21B
Total Debt15.35B14.93B10.32B10.59B17.04B
Total Liabilities33.66B31.97B25.06B23.24B27.79B
Stockholders Equity40.28B29.41B24.78B22.96B19.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.60B462.00M2.33B1.72B213.98M
Operating Cash Flow11.84B10.63B9.70B8.78B5.79B
Investing Cash Flow-13.95B-9.24B-8.04B-7.38B-5.78B
Financing Cash Flow2.71B3.52B-3.23B-7.25B4.23B

Monogatari Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price4410.00
Price Trends
50DMA
4495.23
Positive
100DMA
4315.53
Positive
200DMA
4134.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
185.48
Negative
RSI
65.15
Neutral
STOCH
67.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3097, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4410 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4678.00, below the 50-day MA of 4495.23, and above the 200-day MA of 4134.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 185.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3097.

Monogatari Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
¥195.42B27.380.80%16.91%12.17%
66
Neutral
¥150.60B26.859.66%1.17%8.16%-6.01%
66
Neutral
¥194.64B21.701.65%9.59%8.08%
65
Neutral
¥39.21B10.481.04%5.47%61.89%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
¥324.84B62.580.56%9.28%7.59%
59
Neutral
¥195.67B73.570.29%8.99%61.95%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3097
Monogatari Corporation
5,010.00
1,839.04
58.00%
JP:8179
Royal Holdings Co
1,532.00
360.51
30.77%
JP:3387
create restaurants holdings inc.
737.00
117.53
18.97%
JP:7522
Watami Co., Ltd.
976.00
-23.13
-2.32%
JP:7616
Colowide Co., Ltd.
1,875.00
185.31
10.97%
JP:9936
Ohsho Food Service Corp.
3,250.00
276.94
9.31%

Monogatari Corporation Corporate Events

Monogatari Finalizes Terms for New Employee Stock Option Issuance
Feb 27, 2026

Monogatari Corporation has finalized the terms for a new issuance of employee stock options in the form of share acquisition rights. The program will allocate rights to 78 employees, underpinning the firm’s ongoing use of equity-based compensation to strengthen alignment between staff and shareholders.

Under the approved terms, the company will issue a total of 469 share acquisition rights, corresponding to 46,900 common shares. The exercise price has been set at 501,000 yen per right, or 5,010 yen per share, indicating a concrete valuation benchmark for the incentive plan and clarifying the potential future dilution for existing investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5533.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Corporation Posts Strong Sales Growth as Restaurant Network Expands
Feb 10, 2026

Monogatari Corporation reported robust year-on-year growth in net sales and customer numbers across its domestic restaurant portfolio through the second half of fiscal 2025 and into January 2026. Both all-outlet and existing-store metrics improved, supported by steady restaurant openings and renovations across its yakiniku, ramen, Yuzuan, and other specialty formats.

For all domestic restaurants including new outlets, net sales in the first half of the fiscal year rose roughly 12%, with customer traffic up about 8%, while January 2026 figures showed further acceleration. Existing restaurants also posted positive, albeit more moderate, sales and traffic gains, indicating underlying demand rather than growth driven solely by new store openings, a trend that underscores the company’s strengthening competitive position in Japan’s casual dining sector.

Store counts increased across all key formats during the period, with directly managed outlets and franchises both contributing to network expansion. Renovations and format changes, including upgraded ramen and specialty units, were incorporated into existing-store statistics under defined criteria, highlighting management’s ongoing efforts to optimize the portfolio while sustaining comparable-sales momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Corporation Completes ¥554 Million Share Buyback to Bolster Capital Flexibility
Feb 10, 2026

Monogatari Corporation has completed an off-floor repurchase of its own common shares via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 system, acquiring 130,000 shares for a total of ¥554,450,000 on February 10, 2026. This transaction follows a Board of Directors resolution authorizing up to 140,000 shares and up to ¥600,000,000 for buybacks, indicating the company’s intent to actively adjust its equity base.

The stated purpose of the treasury share acquisition is to prepare for flexible capital policies aligned with the company’s future business operations, suggesting a focus on enhancing financial agility. For stakeholders, the completed buyback may signal management’s confidence in the company’s valuation and provides potential support to per-share metrics, thereby influencing shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Corporation Sets ¥600 Million ToSTNeT-3 Share Buyback
Feb 9, 2026

Monogatari Corporation has approved a share buyback to support flexible capital policies tied to future business operations, underscoring management’s focus on capital efficiency and balance sheet control. The board authorized the repurchase of up to 140,000 common shares, or about 0.3% of outstanding shares excluding treasury stock, for a maximum of ¥600 million through an off-floor transaction on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 system at the February 9 closing price, with execution scheduled for February 10 and subject to market conditions.

The transaction, executed as a single off-floor order at 8:45 a.m., is intended to refine the company’s capital strategy rather than alter its trading structure or hours, signaling a targeted approach to shareholder returns. While the scale of the buyback is modest, the move may bolster per-share metrics and indicates continued commitment to active capital management, though the company notes that some or all of the planned purchases may not be completed depending on market trends and available sell orders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Launches Performance-Linked Stock Options to Drive Vision 2030
Feb 9, 2026

Monogatari Corporation has approved the issuance of 469 performance-linked stock options, representing up to 46,900 common shares, to employees at no cost as part of its medium-term strategy. The scheme is designed to support its Vision 2030 and 2026–2028 management plan by more closely aligning staff incentives with shareholder value and long-term corporate growth.

The options carry strict exercise conditions, including a requirement that annual consolidated sales between fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2030 exceed 220 billion yen, and that holders generally remain as directors, auditors, or employees of the company or its affiliates. By tying equity rewards to ambitious sales thresholds and continued service, Monogatari aims to drive performance, encourage retention of key personnel, and reinforce a culture of shared profit awareness across the group.

The share acquisition rights feature an exercise period from February 10, 2028 to February 9, 2036, with an exercise price set at a small premium to the market average prior to allotment, subject to standard anti-dilution adjustments. Transfer of the rights requires board approval, and detailed provisions govern capital stock and capital reserve increases upon exercise, reflecting a carefully structured incentive plan intended to manage dilution while incentivizing growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Corporation Delivers Double-Digit Profit Growth and Raises Dividends
Feb 9, 2026

The Monogatari Corporation reported strong results for the six months to December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 20.6% year on year to ¥72.3 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent climbing 30.5% to ¥3.61 billion. Earnings per share increased to ¥93.67, while total assets expanded to ¥82.3 billion and net assets to ¥43.1 billion, though the equity ratio eased slightly to 52.2%.

The company confirmed higher shareholder returns, paying an interim dividend of ¥20 per share and forecasting a full-year dividend of ¥40, up from ¥36 in the previous fiscal year. Management left its full-year guidance unchanged, targeting ¥147.2 billion in net sales and a 20.4% rise in full-year profit, underscoring confidence in sustained growth momentum and operational resilience in a competitive consumer market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Posts Strong December Sales Growth as Restaurant Network Expands
Jan 14, 2026

Monogatari Corporation reported robust year-on-year growth in preliminary sales and customer numbers for December 2025 across its domestic network of directly managed and franchise restaurants, with overall net sales and traffic both comfortably above the prior year and the total restaurant count continuing to rise. The figures show stronger momentum in directly managed outlets than in existing-store averages, reflecting the contribution of new restaurants and remodeled formats in yakiniku, ramen, Yuzuan and specialty concepts, while management cautioned that the monthly statistics are trend indicators rather than a full representation of earnings performance; nevertheless, the sustained double‑digit sales growth suggests solid operating traction heading into 2026 and underpins the company’s expansion strategy in Japan’s casual dining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Boosts Capital in Hong Kong Subsidiary to Accelerate Asian Expansion
Jan 13, 2026

Monogatari Corporation has approved a capital increase in its wholly owned Hong Kong unit, MONOGATARI HK CO.LIMITED, doubling the subsidiary’s stated capital to 30 million Hong Kong dollars and elevating it to the status of a specified subsidiary. The move is aimed at reinforcing the Hong Kong subsidiary’s management base and organizational structure, supporting an expanded restaurant store network in a market the company views as a key Asian growth driver, while the immediate impact on consolidated results for the fiscal year ending June 2026 is expected to be limited.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Monogatari Corporation Expands into Thailand with New Subsidiary
Dec 15, 2025

Monogatari Corporation has announced the establishment of a new subsidiary, Storytellers (Thailand) Co., Ltd., in Bangkok, Thailand, as part of its strategy to expand its food and beverage business in the region. The subsidiary, planned to be established in January 2026, will have a capital of 4 million THB and is expected to have minimal impact on the company’s financial results for the fiscal year ending June 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3097) stock is a Buy with a Yen5078.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monogatari Corporation stock, see the JP:3097 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 03, 2025