Alfresa Holdings (2784) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $430.41B
• Dividend Yield: 2.84%
• Average Volume (3M): 362.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 4.35%
• EPS Growth: -5.14%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 12,517
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Medical - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 9.68
• Shares Outstanding: 191,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 364,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 362,990
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.40
• 1Y Price Target: $2,219.44
• Price Target Upside: 0.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,337.00 ▲(5.32% Upside)

Alfresa Holdings scores 80, driven by a strong balance sheet and positive technical indicators. The valuation is attractive, though cash flow issues warrant attention. Financial stability and technical strength are key positive factors.

Alfresa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally. It is involved in the ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business that offers diagnostic reagents and medical devices/equipment to hospitals, clinics, and dispensing pharmacies. The company also engages in self-medication products wholesaling business that offers over-the-counter drugs, including health foods, supplements, and other products to drug stores and pharmacies. In addition, it manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices, as well as undertakes contract manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. Further, the company's medical-related business includes its dispensing pharmacy and other medical-related activities. Alfresa Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Alfresa Holdings generates revenue primarily through the distribution and sale of pharmaceutical products and medical devices. The company's revenue model is centered on its robust supply chain and distribution network, which allow it to effectively serve hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies throughout Japan. Key revenue streams include the wholesale of prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, and medical equipment. Additionally, Alfresa benefits from strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical manufacturers and healthcare providers, ensuring a steady supply of products and fostering long-term business relationships. The company's focus on operational efficiency, along with its ability to offer a diverse product range, significantly contributes to its earnings.

Alfresa Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alfresa Holdings has demonstrated moderate revenue growth with stable profitability. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, but cash flow challenges need addressing. Overall, the financial position is solid, with room for margin improvement.

Income Statement

Alfresa Holdings demonstrated moderate revenue growth of 3.59% over the past year, with a stable gross profit margin of approximately 7.22%. The net profit margin of 0.93% in the most recent year indicates a slight decline from the previous period, reflecting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 1.29% and 1.84%, respectively, showing a consistent but tight control over operating expenses. Overall, the income statement reflects steady revenue growth and profitability, although margins could be improved.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Alfresa Holdings is robust, marked by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage and financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 5.68%, demonstrating efficient utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong at 33.47%, highlighting a solid capital structure with significant shareholder equity. This suggests financial stability and a low risk of solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decrease in free cash flow, shifting from a positive position to negative in the latest period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.21 suggests challenges in converting income into cash. However, the company maintains a strategic approach to capital expenditures and investing activities, indicating potential for future improvement. The reduced free cash flow is a concern but is offset by effective cash management practices.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.96T	2.86T	2.70T	2.59T	2.60T
Gross Profit	213.93B	206.37B	192.09B	187.47B	175.54B
EBITDA	54.57B	57.44B	43.45B	41.92B	32.54B
Net Income	27.39B	29.56B	25.79B	32.18B	24.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.44T	1.45T	1.34T	1.30T	1.32T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	177.09B	213.76B	160.12B	180.44B	170.34B
Total Debt	35.55B	34.94B	3.85B	5.04B	6.17B
Total Liabilities	957.63B	967.77B	851.52B	832.16B	826.70B
Stockholders Equity	481.79B	479.60B	488.09B	471.59B	489.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.87B	71.05B	-12.38B	19.56B	-39.40B
Operating Cash Flow	5.64B	86.38B	13.09B	36.55B	-21.19B
Investing Cash Flow	-24.92B	-14.22B	-20.54B	2.30B	-4.73B
Financing Cash Flow	-23.53B	-19.70B	-12.92B	-29.15B	-14.47B

Alfresa Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2219.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2784, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2219 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2135.03, above the 50-day MA of 2028.04, and above the 200-day MA of 2084.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 56.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.81 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2784.

Alfresa Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2784	80 Outperform	$430.41B	14.95	5.93%	2.84%	4.35%	-5.14%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.39B	0.36	-62.86%	2.36%	15.48%	-2.68%
MEPDF	―	$3.24B	12.10	6.81%	2.66%	―	―
SZUKF	―	$2.24B	13.21	8.32%	1.85%	―	―
3549	76 Outperform	¥427.32B	23.18		0.33%	14.79%	35.84%
3151	70 Outperform	¥58.18B	9.00		3.55%	2.19%	30.09%
8129	68 Neutral	¥345.22B	15.63		1.23%	2.83%	-2.76%

Alfresa Holdings Corporate Events

Alfresa Holdings Sees Q1 Sales Growth but Forecasts Profit Decline

Alfresa Holdings reported a 4.9% increase in net sales for the quarter ending June 30, 2025, reaching ¥758,118 million, with a notable 12.9% rise in profit attributable to owners of the parent. Despite this growth, the company anticipates a decrease in profits for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining its current growth trajectory. The announcement highlights the company’s robust performance in the short term but indicates caution for the future, which may impact stakeholders’ expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Unveils Ambitious Mid-term Management Plan

Alfresa Holdings has announced its 25–27 Mid-term Management Plan, part of its Vision 2032 Stage 2, which focuses on strengthening core businesses and expanding its supply chain services. The plan includes strategic investments in growth and new businesses, rigorous cost control, and sustainability management to enhance corporate value and ensure a stable supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Revises Stock Compensation Plan Amid Structural Transition

Alfresa Holdings Corporation announced a revision to its performance-linked stock compensation plan as it transitions to a company with an audit and supervisory committee structure. This change aims to align the interests of directors and executive officers with shareholders by using a Board Incentive Plan trust to grant shares based on performance. The revision is subject to approval at the upcoming shareholders meeting and includes additional contributions to the trust, enhancing transparency and independence in remuneration decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Announces Governance Transition and Executive Changes

Alfresa Holdings Corporation announced its transition to a company with an audit and supervisory committee structure, pending approval at the upcoming shareholders’ meeting in June 2025. This transition involves the election of new director candidates and changes to executive personnel, which are expected to enhance the company’s governance and operational oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings to Enhance Governance with New Committee Structure

Alfresa Holdings Corporation announced plans to transition to a company with an audit and supervisory committee structure, pending approval at the upcoming Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders. This change aims to enhance corporate governance and decision-making efficiency by strengthening board monitoring functions and delegating business execution authority to directors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Holdings Faces Profitability Challenges Despite Sales Growth

Alfresa Holdings reported a 3.6% increase in net sales for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, reaching ¥2,961,051 million. However, the company experienced a decline in operating profit by 1.0% and a 7.3% decrease in profit attributable to owners of the parent. The cash flow from operating activities significantly decreased, and the annual dividend per share was reduced from the previous year. These financial results indicate challenges in maintaining profitability despite increased sales, potentially impacting stakeholders and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Hold with a Yen2500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.