Alfresa Holdings (2784) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥494.53B
• Dividend Yield: 2.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 354.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 5.11%
• EPS Growth: -20.51%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 12,517
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 112.56
• Shares Outstanding: 191,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 331,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 354,016
• PEG Ratio: -3.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -36.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 181.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥3.09T

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥3,021.00 ▲(19.74% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/28/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/28/25

Alfresa Holdings scores well due to its strong financial performance and technical indicators. The company's robust balance sheet and consistent revenue growth provide a solid foundation, while technical analysis indicates strong bullish momentum. The valuation is reasonable, with a fair P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. However, potential overbought technical indicators suggest caution for short-term investors.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength / Low leverage

Very low leverage and a solid equity ratio give Alfresa durable financial flexibility. This supports working-capital needs in distribution, reduces solvency risk, and allows the firm to fund logistics or buy-in opportunities without overreliance on external debt.

Consistent revenue growth

Steady top-line growth around the mid-single digits indicates persistent demand for pharmaceutical distribution services. Predictable revenue helps sustain scale economics, supports long-term contracts with customers, and underpins incremental margin improvement via density of logistics operations.

Resilient business model and scale in healthcare distribution

Alfresa's role as a high-volume intermediary and provider of logistics/inventory services creates recurring revenue streams and customer stickiness. Scale in distribution is a durable competitive advantage, enabling negotiating power with suppliers and efficiency gains across fulfillment.

Negative Factors

Weak cash conversion / negative free cash flow

A sharp deterioration in free cash flow and low operating-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio highlight difficulty converting earnings into spendable cash. For a working-capital intensive wholesaler, this constrains reinvestment, limits debt capacity usage, and heightens funding risk for growth or dividends.

Thin profitability margins

Very low absolute margins leave limited buffer versus cost inflation, reimbursement changes, or pricing pressure. Small adverse shifts in procurement costs or customer pricing can materially compress earnings, challenging sustainable reinvestment and long-run earnings volatility control.

Modest return on equity

An ROE in the mid-single digits suggests modest profit generation from shareholder capital. Combined with thin margins and negative free cash flow, this may limit capacity to deliver strong returns to investors or to self-fund higher-return growth initiatives over the medium term.

Alfresa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally. It is involved in the ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business that offers diagnostic reagents and medical devices/equipment to hospitals, clinics, and dispensing pharmacies. The company also engages in self-medication products wholesaling business that offers over-the-counter drugs, including health foods, supplements, and other products to drug stores and pharmacies. In addition, it manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices, as well as undertakes contract manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. Further, the company's medical-related business includes its dispensing pharmacy and other medical-related activities. Alfresa Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Alfresa Holdings generates revenue primarily through its pharmaceutical distribution business, which involves the sale of prescription medications and healthcare products to various healthcare providers. The company operates a vast logistics network, ensuring efficient delivery and inventory management that adds value to its customer relationships. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution of pharmaceuticals, sales of its proprietary health and wellness products, and partnerships with major pharmaceutical manufacturers for the distribution of their products in Japan. Additionally, Alfresa benefits from long-term contracts with healthcare institutions, which provide stable revenue streams. The company's focus on expanding its product offerings and enhancing its distribution capabilities also contributes to its financial performance.

Alfresa Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alfresa Holdings presents a solid financial position with consistent revenue growth, strong balance sheet metrics, and efficient use of equity. While income statement margins indicate room for improvement, the company's low leverage and stable capital structure provide a strong foundation. The cash flow situation calls for close monitoring, but overall, the company remains financially sound with a positive outlook for sustaining growth in the Medical - Distribution industry.

Income Statement

Alfresa Holdings demonstrated moderate revenue growth of 3.59% over the past year, with a stable gross profit margin of approximately 7.22%. The net profit margin of 0.93% in the most recent year indicates a slight decline from the previous period, reflecting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 1.29% and 1.84%, respectively, showing a consistent but tight control over operating expenses. Overall, the income statement reflects steady revenue growth and profitability, although margins could be improved.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Alfresa Holdings is robust, marked by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage and financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 5.68%, demonstrating efficient utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong at 33.47%, highlighting a solid capital structure with significant shareholder equity. This suggests financial stability and a low risk of solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decrease in free cash flow, shifting from a positive position to negative in the latest period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.21 suggests challenges in converting income into cash. However, the company maintains a strategic approach to capital expenditures and investing activities, indicating potential for future improvement. The reduced free cash flow is a concern but is offset by effective cash management practices.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.00T	2.96T	2.86T	2.70T	2.59T	2.60T
Gross Profit	215.35B	213.93B	206.37B	192.09B	187.47B	175.54B
EBITDA	48.29B	54.57B	57.44B	51.96B	61.08B	48.48B
Net Income	27.96B	27.39B	29.56B	25.79B	32.18B	24.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.48T	1.44T	1.45T	1.34T	1.30T	1.32T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	180.61B	177.09B	213.76B	160.12B	180.44B	170.34B
Total Debt	30.60B	35.55B	34.94B	3.85B	5.04B	6.17B
Total Liabilities	999.83B	957.63B	967.77B	851.52B	832.16B	826.70B
Stockholders Equity	478.32B	481.79B	479.60B	488.09B	471.59B	489.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-10.87B	71.05B	-12.38B	19.56B	-39.40B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	5.64B	86.38B	13.09B	36.55B	-21.19B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-24.92B	-14.22B	-20.54B	2.30B	-4.73B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-23.53B	-19.70B	-12.92B	-29.15B	-14.47B

Alfresa Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2523.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2784, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2523 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2564.35, below the 50-day MA of 2529.43, and above the 200-day MA of 2238.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 20.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:2784.

Alfresa Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2784	78 Outperform	¥494.53B	5.40	4.94%	2.69%	5.11%	-20.51%
7649	75 Outperform	¥659.29B	23.30	15.71%	0.96%	21.81%	67.76%
9989	69 Neutral	¥483.71B	14.05	11.50%	3.04%	6.32%	8.19%
9987	69 Neutral	¥366.65B	7.24	7.09%	1.60%	1.37%	-1.55%
7459	68 Neutral	¥540.79B	9.27	6.39%	2.27%	3.88%	-10.72%
3549	67 Neutral	¥361.62B	20.79	―	0.41%	15.81%	27.05%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Alfresa Holdings Corporate Events

Alfresa Books ¥15.4 Billion Extraordinary Gain From Sale of Investment Securities

Alfresa Holdings is a leading player in Japan’s healthcare industry, operating across ethical and OTC pharmaceutical wholesaling, pharmaceutical manufacturing, dispensing pharmacies, and regenerative medicine-related businesses. The Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed group reported consolidated revenue of ¥2.9 trillion for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, underscoring its scale in the domestic healthcare supply chain.

Alfresa Holdings has completed the sale of three types of listed securities, generating an extraordinary gain of ¥15,449 million on the disposal of investment securities in the nine months to December 31, 2025. The sale, conducted between October 9 and December 8, 2025, is part of the company’s effort to reduce cross-shareholdings and improve asset efficiency, and the profit has already been incorporated into its unchanged full-year fiscal 2025 earnings forecast, with the company pledging prompt disclosure of any future changes.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Buy with a Yen2650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.

Alfresa Lifts Earnings, Keeps Guidance and Raises Dividend Despite Margin Pressure

Alfresa Holdings reported consolidated net sales of ¥2.36 trillion for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, up 4.5% year on year, while operating and ordinary profit declined slightly, but profit attributable to owners of parent jumped 24.3% to ¥31.98 billion, supported by higher earnings per share as the share count fell. The company’s total assets rose to ¥1.63 trillion and net assets to ¥497.09 billion, and it maintained its full-year forecast, projecting modest sales growth but slightly lower profits, while planning to raise annual dividends to ¥68 per share, signaling continued shareholder returns despite profit margin pressure.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, Alfresa expects net sales of ¥3.11 trillion with operating profit of ¥37.1 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥36 billion, a 31.4% increase, indicating confidence in earnings expansion despite cost headwinds. The equity ratio dipped to 30.5% from 33.5%, suggesting a more asset-heavy balance sheet, but steady dividend growth and unchanged guidance underscore management’s stable outlook for its role in Japan’s pharmaceutical distribution sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2784) stock is a Buy with a Yen2650.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alfresa Holdings stock, see the JP:2784 Stock Forecast page.