Alfresa Holdings (2784) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $415.53B
• Dividend Yield: 2.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 354.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 5.11%
• EPS Growth: -20.51%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 12,517
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 35.82
• Shares Outstanding: 191,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 331,350
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 354,016
• PEG Ratio: -3.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -36.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.33
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,735.00 ▲(12.27% Upside)

Alfresa Holdings scores well due to its strong financial performance and technical indicators. The company's robust balance sheet and consistent revenue growth provide a solid foundation, while technical analysis indicates strong bullish momentum. The valuation is reasonable, with a fair P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. However, potential overbought technical indicators suggest caution for short-term investors.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with low leverage enhances financial stability and reduces solvency risk, supporting long-term growth and resilience.

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth reflects a robust business model and effective market strategies, ensuring sustained financial performance.

Efficient Equity Utilization

Efficient equity utilization indicates strong management performance and the ability to generate profits, enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Declining Cash Flow

Declining cash flow can limit investment capacity and operational flexibility, posing challenges to sustaining long-term growth.

Profit Margin Pressure

Pressure on profit margins suggests challenges in cost management and pricing power, potentially affecting long-term profitability.

Low Operating Cash Conversion

Low cash conversion efficiency can hinder liquidity and operational funding, impacting the company's ability to capitalize on growth opportunities.

Alfresa Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alfresa Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, wholesale, marketing, and import/export of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices/equipment in Japan and internationally. It is involved in the ethical pharmaceuticals wholesaling business that offers diagnostic reagents and medical devices/equipment to hospitals, clinics, and dispensing pharmacies. The company also engages in self-medication products wholesaling business that offers over-the-counter drugs, including health foods, supplements, and other products to drug stores and pharmacies. In addition, it manufactures and markets active pharmaceutical ingredients, pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices, as well as undertakes contract manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. Further, the company's medical-related business includes its dispensing pharmacy and other medical-related activities. Alfresa Holdings Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Alfresa Holdings generates revenue primarily through its pharmaceutical distribution business, which involves the sale of prescription medications and healthcare products to various healthcare providers. The company operates a vast logistics network, ensuring efficient delivery and inventory management that adds value to its customer relationships. Key revenue streams include wholesale distribution of pharmaceuticals, sales of its proprietary health and wellness products, and partnerships with major pharmaceutical manufacturers for the distribution of their products in Japan. Additionally, Alfresa benefits from long-term contracts with healthcare institutions, which provide stable revenue streams. The company's focus on expanding its product offerings and enhancing its distribution capabilities also contributes to its financial performance.

Alfresa Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alfresa Holdings presents a solid financial position with consistent revenue growth, strong balance sheet metrics, and efficient use of equity. While income statement margins indicate room for improvement, the company's low leverage and stable capital structure provide a strong foundation. The cash flow situation calls for close monitoring, but overall, the company remains financially sound with a positive outlook for sustaining growth in the Medical - Distribution industry.

Income Statement

Alfresa Holdings demonstrated moderate revenue growth of 3.59% over the past year, with a stable gross profit margin of approximately 7.22%. The net profit margin of 0.93% in the most recent year indicates a slight decline from the previous period, reflecting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins stand at 1.29% and 1.84%, respectively, showing a consistent but tight control over operating expenses. Overall, the income statement reflects steady revenue growth and profitability, although margins could be improved.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Alfresa Holdings is robust, marked by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating low leverage and financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 5.68%, demonstrating efficient utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong at 33.47%, highlighting a solid capital structure with significant shareholder equity. This suggests financial stability and a low risk of solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decrease in free cash flow, shifting from a positive position to negative in the latest period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.21 suggests challenges in converting income into cash. However, the company maintains a strategic approach to capital expenditures and investing activities, indicating potential for future improvement. The reduced free cash flow is a concern but is offset by effective cash management practices.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.00T	2.96T	2.86T	2.70T	2.59T	2.60T
Gross Profit	215.35B	213.93B	206.37B	192.09B	187.47B	175.54B
EBITDA	48.29B	54.57B	57.44B	51.96B	61.08B	48.48B
Net Income	27.96B	27.39B	29.56B	25.79B	32.18B	24.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.48T	1.44T	1.45T	1.34T	1.30T	1.32T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	180.61B	177.09B	213.76B	160.12B	180.44B	170.34B
Total Debt	30.60B	35.55B	34.94B	3.85B	5.04B	6.17B
Total Liabilities	999.83B	957.63B	967.77B	851.52B	832.16B	826.70B
Stockholders Equity	478.32B	481.79B	479.60B	488.09B	471.59B	489.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-10.87B	71.05B	-12.38B	19.56B	-39.40B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	5.64B	86.38B	13.09B	36.55B	-21.19B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-24.92B	-14.22B	-20.54B	2.30B	-4.73B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-23.53B	-19.70B	-12.92B	-29.15B	-14.47B

Alfresa Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2436.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2784, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2436 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2346.80, above the 50-day MA of 2235.80, and above the 200-day MA of 2101.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 46.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2784.

Alfresa Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2784	78 Outperform	$415.53B	14.44	4.94%	2.73%	5.11%	-20.51%
9987	69 Neutral	$327.42B	13.10	7.09%	1.62%	1.37%	-1.55%
7459	68 Neutral	$496.10B	13.71	6.39%	2.32%	3.88%	-10.72%
3151	67 Neutral	¥58.09B	6.38	―	4.47%	2.23%	72.07%
3549	67 Neutral	¥357.60B	21.81	―	0.40%	15.81%	27.05%
8129	60 Neutral	¥307.93B	14.43	―	1.81%	2.31%	19.86%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Alfresa Holdings Corporate Events

Alfresa Holdings Revises Fiscal 2025 Profit Forecast

Alfresa Holdings Corporation has revised its consolidated performance forecast for fiscal 2025, anticipating a significant increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent due to extraordinary profit from the sale of investment securities. This adjustment reflects a strategic move to reduce cross-shareholdings, potentially enhancing the company’s financial performance and positioning in the healthcare industry.

Alfresa Holdings Reports Mixed Financial Results for First Half of 2025

Alfresa Holdings reported a 5% increase in net sales for the six months ending September 30, 2025, reaching ¥1,529,762 million. Despite the rise in sales, the profit attributable to owners of the parent decreased by 18.1% to ¥11,521 million. The company also revised its forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, with expected net sales of ¥3,107,000 million and a significant 31.4% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent. This financial performance indicates a mixed outlook, with growth in sales but challenges in maintaining profitability, impacting stakeholders’ expectations.

Alfresa Holdings Revises Fiscal 2025 Performance Forecast

Alfresa Holdings Corporation has revised its consolidated performance forecast for the first half of fiscal 2025, reflecting an increase in operating and ordinary profits due to delayed recording of expenses and cost control measures. The company also recorded an extraordinary profit from the sale of investment securities, contributing to a higher profit attributable to owners of the parent. The full-year forecast will be announced on November 6, 2025.