Astroscale Holdings Inc. (186A) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥133.69B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 85.06%
• EPS Growth: 43.93%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 494
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): -17.46
• Shares Outstanding: 135,724,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,134,070
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,356,840
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 14.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 35.85
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -59.62
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥6.49B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,065.00 ▲(82.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—large operating/net losses and significant negative free cash flow—despite strong revenue growth and improved leverage. Technicals are a meaningful offset with a clear uptrend and constructive momentum, while valuation remains challenging due to ongoing losses and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth

Consistent TTM revenue growth of +23.5% signals durable commercial traction for in-orbit services. Over the next 2–6 months this supports expanding contract pipelines and milestone payments, enabling scale efficiency and higher absolute gross margin potential as fixed costs spread.

Improving leverage profile

Material reduction in leverage lowers refinancing and liquidity risk and increases financial flexibility. An improved debt-to-equity ratio suggests stronger equity backing and a longer runway to execute multi-stage missions, reducing near-term funding stress if operational performance stabilizes.

Mission-critical niche technology

Specialized capabilities in rendezvous, capture and satellite servicing create high barriers to entry and long-term customer stickiness with governments and operators. Structural demand for orbital sustainability and contracted mission work supports predictable pipelines and strategic partnerships over months to years.

Negative Factors

Large negative free cash flow

Deep and persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicate heavy cash burn that undermines financial runway. Continued outflows necessitate regular external financing or partner funding, which can dilute shareholders, constrain investment in scaling operations, or delay mission commitments if capital markets tighten.

Very weak profitability and margins

Extremely negative net margins and low gross margin show the cost base far exceeds current revenue scale. Without meaningful margin expansion, the business faces structural difficulty reaching break-even, making long-term sustainability reliant on continued revenue acceleration or material cost reduction.

High dependence on external funding

Deeply negative ROE and ongoing losses create structural dependence on capital raises or partner financing. This reliance increases execution risk and potential dilution, and could constrain strategic choices or timing of missions if new funding is delayed or becomes more costly.

Astroscale Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astroscale Holdings Inc. (186A) is a pioneering company in the space industry, focused on satellite servicing and space debris removal. The company operates primarily in the aerospace and defense sectors, offering innovative solutions for sustainable space operations. Core products and services include space debris mitigation technologies, satellite servicing missions, and end-of-life satellite management, all aimed at ensuring the long-term sustainability of Earth's orbital environment.

How the Company Makes Money

Astroscale makes money by providing in-orbit services and related mission programs to customers such as government space agencies and commercial satellite operators. Key revenue streams include (1) contracted mission revenue for designing, building, and operating spacecraft for specific debris-removal or servicing demonstrations/operations, where payments are typically milestone-based under development and service contracts; and (2) engineering and technology revenue from supplying mission components, software, and technical services associated with rendezvous, proximity operations, and capture/docking systems. Earnings can also be influenced by partnerships and collaborations with national space agencies and industry primes that fund or co-develop demonstration missions and operational concepts. null

Astroscale Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue growth (+23.5%) and improving gross margin versus prior periods are positives, but the overall profile is still dominated by very large losses (net margin around -259%) and heavy cash burn (TTM FCF ~-16.2B). Balance sheet leverage has improved (debt-to-equity ~0.92), yet deeply negative ROE (~-105%) keeps funding/execution risk elevated.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is growing strongly (+23.5%), showing improving commercial traction. However, profitability remains very weak: gross margin is only ~11% in TTM and operating and net results are deeply negative (net margin around -259%), indicating the cost base is far ahead of current scale. While margins improved materially versus prior annual periods (which had negative gross margins), the company is still far from break-even.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved versus the last two annual reports, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.92 in TTM from ~2.27–2.44 previously, supported by higher equity. That said, the business is still loss-making, producing a strongly negative return on equity (about -105% in TTM), which keeps balance-sheet quality pressured and implies continued dependence on funding if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weakness: TTM operating cash flow is materially negative (~-11.5B) and free cash flow is even more negative (~-16.2B), indicating heavy cash burn. While free cash flow change is positive in TTM, it remains deeply below zero, and cash outflows are not yet stabilizing at a level consistent with the current revenue base.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2026	Apr 2025	Apr 2023	Apr 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.37B	2.46B	2.85B	1.79B	910.37M
Gross Profit	162.40M	-4.50B	-2.75B	-5.57B	-1.97B
EBITDA	-15.04B	-22.04B	-13.20B	-12.15B	-5.36B
Net Income	-10.24B	-21.55B	-9.18B	-9.26B	-5.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.70B	33.63B	24.99B	30.44B	20.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.93B	21.30B	14.20B	22.68B	16.87B
Total Debt	10.67B	13.93B	13.18B	9.73B	2.50B
Total Liabilities	22.29B	27.50B	19.59B	15.55B	6.03B
Stockholders Equity	10.42B	6.13B	5.40B	14.89B	14.09B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.04B	-12.83B	-13.91B	-9.47B	-5.98B
Operating Cash Flow	-11.41B	-12.25B	-12.82B	-7.94B	-5.50B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.93B	-1.04B	-1.18B	-1.63B	-662.66M
Financing Cash Flow	7.19B	20.82B	4.15B	15.23B	13.79B

Astroscale Holdings Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 584.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:186A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 584 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1034.90, below the 50-day MA of 1022.84, and below the 200-day MA of 781.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 24.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:186A.

Astroscale Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1952	80 Outperform	¥162.55B	11.69	―	2.81%	8.83%	49.49%
6946	77 Outperform	¥108.44B	17.71	19.52%	0.13%	28.27%	27.15%
7739	76 Outperform	¥148.33B	22.89	―	1.92%	7.46%	-8.01%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
7224	63 Neutral	¥150.50B	8.92	9.14%	2.84%	0.26%	14.29%
7409	59 Neutral	¥45.23B	19.10	―	―	21.00%	53.61%
186A	49 Neutral	¥133.69B	-15.61	―	―	85.06%	43.93%

Astroscale Holdings Inc. Corporate Events

Astroscale Flags Risks and Limitations in FY2026 Q3 Financial Results Presentation

Astroscale Holdings Inc. released an informational document presenting its FY2026 third-quarter financial results, emphasizing that the materials are for reference and may differ from actual future outcomes. The company highlighted that its performance is subject to uncertainties, including mission development risks, evolving customer plans, competitive pressures, and changes in legal and regulatory environments, and it cautioned stakeholders regarding reliance on the translated, third-party-based information.

The presentation underscored that the English version is a translation of the Japanese original, which remains the authoritative source in case of discrepancies. Astroscale also noted that some of the data rely on third-party information that has not been independently verified, signaling potential limitations for investors and other stakeholders in fully assessing the company’s financial and operational outlook based on this document alone.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1057.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Widens Losses Despite Surging Revenue and Stronger Balance Sheet

Astroscale reported a sharp increase in project income and revenue for the nine months ended January 31, 2026, with project income rising 125.1% to ¥8.35 billion and revenue nearly tripling to ¥4.42 billion. Despite this top-line growth and an improved per-share loss, the company remained deeply loss-making, posting an operating loss of ¥7.14 billion and a net loss attributable to owners of ¥5.02 billion, while equity strengthened and the equity ratio improved to 31.9%.

The company maintained a zero-dividend policy and left its full-year forecast unchanged, projecting further strong project income and revenue growth but continued significant losses, with full-year net loss forecast between ¥9.7 billion and ¥10.7 billion. The figures underscore Astroscale’s ongoing investment phase, as it prioritizes scaling its project portfolio and balance sheet resilience over near-term profitability, a stance that will be closely watched by shareholders in a volatile, high-growth space sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1057.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Books ¥2.4 Billion Foreign Exchange Gain, Boosting Nine-Month Results

Astroscale Holdings Inc. reported a foreign exchange gain of ¥123 million in financial income for the quarter ended January 31, 2026, primarily driven by the revaluation of foreign currency cash, cash equivalents, and loans to subsidiaries at period-end exchange rates. For the nine months to January 31, 2026, total foreign exchange gains reached ¥2,447 million, with most of the amount generated in the preceding six-month period, and these gains are reflected in the company’s latest consolidated financial results under IFRS.

The recognition of sizable foreign exchange gains adds a positive, non-operating boost to Astroscale’s reported earnings for the nine-month period, highlighting the company’s exposure to currency movements through its overseas cash positions and intercompany lending. While these gains improve near-term financial performance, they underscore the sensitivity of Astroscale’s results to FX volatility, a factor that investors and other stakeholders will need to monitor alongside the firm’s core space-services operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1057.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Taps Isar Aerospace to Launch Pioneering Satellite End-of-Life Mission

Astroscale’s U.K. subsidiary has signed a launch contract with European space company Isar Aerospace for the ELSA-M in-orbit demonstration mission, scheduled for the fiscal year ending April 2028. The mission will test the commercial viability of removing multiple satellites that have reached the end of their operational life, using prepared satellites designed with docking interfaces for active end-of-life servicing.

ELSA-M will be the world’s first commercial end-of-life service targeting such prepared satellites and is majority funded by Astroscale’s private capital, supplemented by co-funding from the U.K. Space Agency via ESA and Eutelsat. By selecting Isar’s Spectrum launch vehicle, which is designed for cost-efficient small and medium satellite launches and supports Europe’s push for autonomous access to space, Astroscale strengthens its role in Europe’s space sustainability ecosystem without requiring changes to its current financial forecasts or the ELSA-M Phase 4 contract value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1057.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Japan Boosts First-Year Budget for REFLEX-J Satellite Refueling Project

Astroscale’s Japanese subsidiary has amended its contract for the REFLEX-J satellite refueling technology project with the Japan Science and Technology Agency, increasing the first-year contract amount to ¥1.06 billion from ¥0.59 billion while keeping the total project budget unchanged at ¥10.8 billion. The adjustment reflects faster-than-planned budget execution to secure long-lead components for Astroscale Japan’s servicer satellite, with the five-year R&D effort aimed at establishing Japanese chemical refueling technology that supports satellite life extension and broader applications across orbits and markets.

The contract amendment, executed on February 24, 2026, does not alter the overall project scope or duration and is expected to have only a minimal impact on Astroscale’s consolidated financial forecast for the fiscal year ending April 2026. Nonetheless, the accelerated spending underscores the company’s push to advance its Life Extension and Refueling Services (LEX), reinforcing its strategic positioning in the emerging in-orbit refueling segment despite the limited near-term financial effect.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Hold with a Yen975.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Wins JAXA Funding to Develop GEO Satellite Refueling Technology

Astroscale’s Japanese subsidiary, Astroscale Inc., has been selected by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to participate in the second phase of the Space Strategy Fund, securing eligibility for up to ¥1.5 billion in funding over four years to develop electric propellant refueling technology for geostationary orbit services. Positioned as a strategically important initiative amid rising demand for refueling across defense and commercial sectors, the project aims to build core technologies for repeated in-orbit refueling and propellant transfer, support the standardization of interfaces among orbital transfer vehicles and other space logistics systems, and enhance the economic viability of GEO satellite operations, with expected long-term contributions to Astroscale’s financial results from the fiscal year ending April 2027 and a stronger competitive foothold in the emerging global on-orbit servicing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Hold with a Yen1023.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Wins First Direct NASA Study Deal for Habitable Worlds Observatory

Astroscale U.S. Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of Astroscale Holdings Inc., has been selected by NASA to conduct a study on how its on-orbit servicing technologies could support the Habitable Worlds Observatory, the planned space telescope dedicated to searching for signs of life on exoplanets. The study, which is expected to become Astroscale’s first direct contract with NASA, will examine how robotic servicing could reduce program risk, enhance scientific output, optimize resources, minimize downtime, and maximize maintenance and upgrade opportunities for the observatory, echoing the long-term value generated by servicing missions to the Hubble Space Telescope. While the contract amount and period are yet to be determined and any financial impact for the year ending April 2026 is expected to be minimal, Astroscale anticipates that revenue from the project will start contributing from fiscal 2027 onward and sees the engagement as a strategically important step that could lead to future on-orbit repair and upgrade business opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Sell with a Yen584.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Wins ¥999 Million Defense Contract for Satellite Grapple Technology

Astroscale Japan Inc., a subsidiary of Astroscale Holdings Inc., has secured a ¥999 million contract from Japan’s Ministry of Defense to research and ground‑demonstrate a grapple mechanism for inspecting and protecting national satellites in geostationary orbit, under a program running through March 2028. Building on an earlier Ministry of Defense contract for a responsive space system demonstration satellite, the new project underscores Astroscale’s growing role in Japan’s defense‑oriented space capabilities and aims to deliver a versatile docking and grappling system that supports “mission assurance” for critical satellites; revenue from the contract is expected to be recognized over the project period with minimal impact on results for the fiscal year ending April 2026 but contributions from fiscal 2027 onward.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Sell with a Yen584.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.

Astroscale Wins ESA Contract to Develop In-Orbit Satellite Refurbishment Service

Astroscale’s UK subsidiary, Astroscale Ltd, has won an eight‑month, €399,000 study contract from the European Space Agency to develop concepts for an In-Orbit Refurbishment and Upgrading Service (IRUS), marking the company’s first move into satellite refurbishment and upgrade as a new service domain. Working with BAE Systems and drawing on its ELSA-M and COSMIC platforms, Astroscale will examine how robotic servicing technologies can dock with existing satellites to replace degraded or outdated subsystems, extending spacecraft life and capabilities; the initiative is positioned as a strategic step in expanding Astroscale’s in-orbit servicing portfolio and advancing ESA’s circular space economy goals, though the company does not expect a material impact on its current fiscal-year results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:186A) stock is a Sell with a Yen584.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astroscale Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:186A Stock Forecast page.