Toda Corporation (1860) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥493.64B
• Dividend Yield: 2.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 544.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 18.92%
• EPS Growth: 73.08%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 6,621
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): 51.82
• Shares Outstanding: 322,656,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 822,090
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 544,566
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.45
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 99.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥622.80B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,713.00 ▲(35.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/11/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth and improved profitability) but held back by negative free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend above key moving averages, though overbought momentum increases pullback risk. Valuation appears reasonable with a moderate P/E and a 2.25% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth momentum

Sustained double-digit revenue growth indicates expanding contract wins and market share in building and civil work. Over a multi-month horizon this supports a larger backlog, better utilization of fixed resources and greater negotiating leverage on subcontracting and procurement.

Improving profitability

Improving gross and net margins reflect better pricing or cost control on projects, signaling durable operational improvements. Higher margins increase retained earnings and buffer against project overruns, supporting reinvestment in equipment, bidding competitiveness and creditor confidence.

Solid capital structure

A healthy equity ratio provides balance-sheet resilience for a contract-driven business, enabling the company to bid on large projects and absorb timing swings. Decent ROE suggests capital is generating returns while moderate leverage leaves room for selective financing without eroding solvency.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow

Negative free cash flow signals liquidity pressure from working capital or capex timing in a business where contract cash conversion matters. That reduces financial flexibility for deposits, mobilization costs or unexpected overruns and raises reliance on external financing.

Moderate leverage

A D/E around 0.75 creates interest and refinancing exposure in a cyclical construction sector. With negative FCF, this leverage becomes more consequential, potentially constraining bid capacity and making the company more sensitive to rate moves or sudden drops in contract inflows.

Modest operating margins

Relatively low EBIT/EBITDA margins leave limited buffer against rising labor, material or subcontractor costs typical in construction. Sustaining profitability requires improving operational efficiency or pricing power; otherwise margins could compress and impair cash generation.

Toda Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Toda Corporation primarily engages in the building construction and civil engineering businesses in Japan and internationally. The company is involved in the research, planning, design, management, and execution of architectural and civil engineering works, as well as provides engineering and consulting related services. It also engages in the research, planning, design, management, and execution works related to local and urban development activities, as well as provides related engineering and consulting services. Additionally, the company sells, purchases, rents, intermediates, manages, and appraises real estate properties. Further, it generates and sells renewable energy, as well as engages in the agricultural activities. The company was formerly known as Toda-Gumi Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Toda Corporation in 1963. Toda Corporation was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Toda Corporation generates revenue primarily through its construction and engineering services, which include contracts for public works, private construction projects, and infrastructure development. Key revenue streams come from civil engineering projects, residential and commercial building construction, and real estate development. The company also earns income from the manufacturing of construction materials and products. Significant partnerships with government entities, private developers, and international collaborations enhance its project portfolio and financial stability, contributing to consistent revenue growth.

Toda Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (12.3%) and improved net margin (4.3%) support the score, but negative free cash flow and only moderate operating efficiency (EBIT margin 4.5%) temper overall financial strength. Balance sheet is solid with a 37.0% equity ratio, though leverage is moderate (D/E 0.75).

Income Statement

Toda Corporation's income statement shows a solid gross profit margin of 13.1% for the latest fiscal year, which is consistent with industry norms. The net profit margin improved to 4.3%, indicating effective cost management and profitability improvements. The revenue growth rate of 12.3% from the previous year is a strong indicator of business expansion. Despite these strengths, the EBIT margin of 4.5% and EBITDA margin of 8.2% suggest that there is room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity ratio of 37.0%, demonstrating a robust capital structure. However, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75 indicates moderate leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. The return on equity is 7.4%, showing decent profitability in relation to shareholder investments, although there is potential for improvement.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging scenario with a negative free cash flow growth rate, as free cash flow turned negative in the latest year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.05, indicating that operating cash generation aligns closely with net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting liquidity concerns and the need for better cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	606.21B	586.66B	522.43B	547.15B	501.51B	507.13B
Gross Profit	82.15B	76.80B	65.58B	57.32B	62.68B	64.89B
EBITDA	43.56B	48.37B	37.09B	25.57B	33.96B	34.26B
Net Income	25.01B	25.19B	16.10B	10.99B	18.56B	19.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	890.18B	923.57B	872.06B	815.56B	761.20B	735.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.17B	89.17B	114.41B	97.54B	130.84B	105.14B
Total Debt	244.66B	255.47B	226.57B	211.54B	179.40B	151.04B
Total Liabilities	541.03B	570.37B	516.54B	492.30B	442.16B	423.26B
Stockholders Equity	338.05B	342.23B	348.52B	317.25B	316.57B	310.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-36.38B	5.64B	-68.45B	1.48B	-50.46B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	26.41B	62.15B	-30.84B	27.27B	-21.14B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-61.19B	-48.85B	-26.10B	-20.43B	-30.85B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	7.36B	1.03B	22.53B	18.31B	31.28B

Toda Corporation Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1266.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:1860, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1266 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1529.70, below the 50-day MA of 1411.22, and above the 200-day MA of 1111.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 56.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.47 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:1860.

Toda Corporation Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1719	79 Outperform	¥378.19B	13.02	16.55%	4.26%	9.49%	64.79%
1802	75 Outperform	¥2.96T	17.00	14.23%	2.47%	2.27%	70.36%
1861	74 Outperform	¥344.14B	16.73	7.62%	3.44%	7.54%	115.47%
1812	71 Outperform	¥3.41T	19.26	13.03%	1.96%	10.52%	71.09%
1860	70 Outperform	¥493.64B	12.40	―	2.73%	18.92%	73.08%
1893	64 Neutral	¥611.63B	18.33	10.95%	1.88%	16.67%	5.82%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Toda Corporation Corporate Events

Toda Corporation Launches ¥7 Billion Share Buyback for Full Cancellation

Toda Corporation’s board has approved a share buyback of up to 7 million common shares, equivalent to 2.30% of its outstanding stock excluding treasury shares, for a total purchase price of up to ¥7 billion. The repurchases will be conducted via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between February 16 and March 31, 2026, with all acquired shares slated for full cancellation.

Management frames the move as part of its Medium-Term Management Plan 2027, which targets a total payout ratio of around 70% and emphasizes shareholder returns as a key priority. By retiring the repurchased shares, Toda aims to enhance capital efficiency, support its share price, and potentially increase earnings per share, reinforcing its shareholder-friendly stance in a competitive construction sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1860) stock is a Buy with a Yen1737.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toda Corporation stock, see the JP:1860 Stock Forecast page.

Toda Corporation Lifts FY2026 Profit Outlook and Hikes Dividend

Toda Corporation revised its full-year earnings outlook for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, raising both consolidated and non-consolidated profit forecasts while keeping net sales targets unchanged. Higher gross margins on domestic architectural construction projects are expected to lift non-consolidated operating income by ¥1.0 billion and net income by ¥2.0 billion versus earlier projections.

On a consolidated basis, operating income is now projected to rise by ¥1.5 billion and ordinary income by ¥2.4 billion, even after accounting for anticipated extraordinary losses at certain overseas subsidiaries. Reflecting the stronger earnings trajectory and its policy of aligning shareholder returns with performance while preserving financial stability, the company also increased its year-end dividend forecast by ¥5 to ¥25 per share, bringing the total annual dividend to ¥45.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1860) stock is a Buy with a Yen1737.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toda Corporation stock, see the JP:1860 Stock Forecast page.

Toda Corporation Lifts Full-Year Forecast on Sharp Profit Growth

Toda Corporation reported strong results for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with net sales up 20.9% to ¥460.2 billion and operating profit surging 135.6% as profit attributable to owners of parent more than doubled. The company’s capital adequacy ratio edged up to 37.3%, and basic earnings per share rose to ¥94.37, underscoring improved profitability and a stronger balance sheet.

Reflecting this momentum, Toda raised its full-year forecast, now projecting ¥630 billion in net sales and a 15.1% increase in full-year profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥29 billion. The company also revised its dividend outlook higher, targeting a total annual payout of ¥45 per share for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, signaling greater shareholder returns on the back of robust earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1860) stock is a Buy with a Yen1737.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toda Corporation stock, see the JP:1860 Stock Forecast page.

Toda Corporation to Dispose of Treasury Shares for Employee Stock Grant Program

Toda Corporation will dispose of 46,050 treasury shares by third-party allotment to its Group Employee Shareholding Association as part of a post-delivery stock grant program for domestic group employees. The disposal, scheduled for March 27, 2026 at 1,580.5 yen per share and totaling about 72.8 million yen, represents minimal dilution of 0.01% of shares issued and 0.02% of voting rights.

The program is designed to grant shares indirectly to 307 eligible employees who continue contributing to the association, using a point-based system converted into a special stock incentive. By continuing and expanding this scheme beyond the 2025 program period, Toda aims to boost long-term employee engagement, strengthen alignment with shareholders, and support sustained improvements in corporate value and business performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1860) stock is a Buy with a Yen1737.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toda Corporation stock, see the JP:1860 Stock Forecast page.

Toda Corporation to Dispose of Treasury Shares for Employee Stock Grant Program

Toda Corporation has approved the disposal of 443,700 treasury shares through a third-party allotment to its employee shareholding association as part of a post-delivery stock grant program. Priced at ¥1,580.5 per share for a total of about ¥701 million, the move aims to strengthen employee incentives, align staff interests with shareholders, and modestly dilute existing equity by roughly 0.14% of issued shares and 0.15% of voting rights.

The program will allocate shares to 2,958 eligible employees via a special stock incentive that converts awarded points into monetary claims contributed to the shareholding association. By continuing this scheme beyond the 2025 program period, the company seeks to boost medium- to long-term performance and deepen employees’ sense of contribution to enhancing corporate value, potentially reinforcing retention and engagement across its domestic group companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:1860) stock is a Buy with a Yen1737.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Toda Corporation stock, see the JP:1860 Stock Forecast page.