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Terna S.p.A. (IT:TRN)
:TRN
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Terna S.p.A. (TRN) AI Stock Analysis

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IT:TRN

Terna S.p.A.

(LSE:TRN)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
€9.50
▲(12.56%Upside)
Terna S.p.A. exhibits strong financial performance, with high profitability and effective capital management being major strengths. Technical indicators provide mixed signals, suggesting caution in the short term. Valuation metrics are reasonable, providing a balanced view on intrinsic value. The absence of earnings call insights and corporate events does not affect the overall assessment significantly.
Positive Factors
Dividend Policy
The solid 2024 dividend, being a floor going forward, could be the main good news for investors.
Energy Transition
Terna's role as a key enabler for the energy transition is consolidated with increased investments.
Financial Performance
Net income is expected to increase by approximately 17% year-over-year, driven by positive operating performance.
Negative Factors
Quarterly Performance
An expectation of 4Q24 to be weaker than previous quarters, affecting the full-year results.

Terna S.p.A. (TRN) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Terna S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTerna S.p.A. (TRN) is an Italian electricity transmission system operator responsible for the management and maintenance of the national high-voltage electricity transmission grid. The company plays a crucial role in ensuring the stability and efficiency of Italy's electricity supply. Terna's core operations include the development, operation, and maintenance of the electricity transmission network, as well as the integration of renewable energy sources into the national grid.
How the Company Makes MoneyTerna S.p.A. generates revenue primarily through regulated activities related to the transportation of electricity across Italy's transmission network. The company's earnings are mainly derived from tariffs set by the Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks, and Environment (ARERA), which compensates Terna for its investment in grid infrastructure and management services. Additionally, Terna engages in non-regulated activities, such as providing consultancy and engineering services both domestically and internationally. Partnerships with renewable energy producers and investments in grid modernization and expansion projects also contribute to its revenue streams.

Terna S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Terna S.p.A. demonstrates robust financial health with strong revenue growth, high profitability margins, and effective capital management. Despite high leverage typical of the utilities sector, the company maintains a stable financial position and solid cash flow generation, though negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures should be monitored.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Terna S.p.A. has exhibited strong revenue growth with a steady trajectory over recent years, increasing from €2.32 billion in 2019 to €3.68 billion in 2024. The company maintains high gross and net profit margins, consistently above industry averages, with a gross profit margin of 82.06% and a net profit margin of 28.84% in 2024. This indicates efficient cost management and robust profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect solid operational performance. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trend and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Terna's balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 27.68% in 2024, indicating a high level of asset financing through equity. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.84, reflecting significant leverage but is manageable within the utility sector norms. Return on equity is robust at 14.11%, signaling effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The balance sheet is stable with a healthy mix of debt and equity financing, though high leverage requires monitoring for potential risks.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Terna's cash flow statement indicates stable operating cash flows relative to net income, with a ratio of 1.38 in 2024, suggesting strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow is negative due to substantial capital expenditures, which are common in the utilities sector for infrastructure investments. While free cash flow growth is a concern, the company maintains positive operating cash flows, supporting ongoing operations and dividend commitments.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.68B3.15B2.92B2.57B2.40B
Gross Profit3.02B2.58B2.42B2.16B2.06B
EBITDA2.57B2.11B2.04B1.83B1.73B
Net Income1.06B885.40M857.00M789.40M785.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets27.19B23.47B22.83B22.39B20.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.74B1.74B2.41B2.55B3.31B
Total Debt13.86B12.98B11.76B12.42B12.25B
Total Liabilities19.64B17.10B17.58B17.60B16.28B
Stockholders Equity7.52B6.32B5.15B4.68B4.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.16B-963.90M831.40M-511.90M-245.20M
Operating Cash Flow1.47B1.08B2.32B832.30M941.40M
Investing Cash Flow-2.40B-2.33B-1.86B-863.30M-1.39B
Financing Cash Flow1.87B464.30M92.50M-1.05B2.08B

Terna S.p.A. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price8.44
Price Trends
50DMA
8.58
Negative
100DMA
8.33
Positive
200DMA
7.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
46.83
Neutral
STOCH
22.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:TRN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.46, below the 50-day MA of 8.58, and above the 200-day MA of 7.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:TRN.

Terna S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (71)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
€17.03B13.5317.62%5.72%-8.04%30.49%
74
Outperform
€16.95B15.3219.67%4.69%10.18%8.43%
73
Outperform
€45.38B18.525.02%6.80%-6.68%-33.67%
71
Outperform
€14.14B48.0312.23%4.75%0.08%8.98%
70
Outperform
€1.04B12.2626.22%3.20%30.89%143.25%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IT:TRN
Terna S.p.A.
8.44
1.32
18.56%
IT:ENI
ENI S.p.A.
14.70
1.73
13.37%
IT:SRG
SNAM S.p.A.
5.08
1.04
25.73%
IT:ARN
Alerion CleanPower
19.04
5.40
39.57%

Terna S.p.A. Corporate Events

Terna Releases Half-Year Financial Report for 2025
Jul 30, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has announced the availability of its Half-Year Financial Report for the period ending June 30, 2025, following approval by its Board of Directors. The report, which includes an audit review, is accessible to the public through the company’s website and other authorized platforms, reflecting Terna’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Achieves Record Investments and Financial Growth in H1 2025
Jul 29, 2025

Terna S.p.A. reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenues increasing by 8% and investments reaching over 1.3 billion euros, marking a 26.6% rise compared to the previous year. This investment surge underscores Terna’s strategic focus on enhancing the national electric system’s safety and facilitating the energy transition, reflecting positively on its industrial plan and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Launches First European Green Bond
Jul 15, 2025

Terna S.p.A. successfully launched its first European Green Bond, raising 750 million euros with a six-year duration and a 3% coupon. The bond, part of Terna’s Euro Medium Term Notes Program, received strong market interest, with demand nearly five times the offer, and will fund eligible green projects, supporting Terna’s strategy of combining sustainability with growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna Secures 1 Billion Euro Financing for Adriatic Link
Jul 14, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has announced the conclusion of agreements for financing guaranteed by SACE S.p.A, amounting to approximately 1 billion euros, to support the implementation of the Adriatic Link project. This operation, involving related parties, was deemed of greater importance due to the significant value of the guarantees, but was excluded from the related parties procedure as it falls under ordinary operations at market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna Secures €1 Billion Financing for Adriatic Link
Jul 12, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has announced the conclusion of agreements for financing related to the Adriatic Link project, secured by SACE S.p.A. guarantees amounting to approximately €1 billion. These transactions, deemed of greater importance due to their cumulative value, were reviewed by Terna’s Advisory Board and Related-Party Transactions Committee and are considered ordinary and conducted at market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna Secures 1 Billion Euro Financing for Adriatic Link
Jul 11, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has announced the conclusion of agreements for financing, guaranteed by SACE S.p.A., amounting to approximately 1 billion euros for the Adriatic Link project. These transactions, involving related parties under the control of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti S.p.A., have been deemed ordinary and at market conditions, thus excluded from related party procedures.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna Secures €1.5 Billion for Adriatic Link Energy Project
Jul 10, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has secured 1.5 billion euros in financing from the European Investment Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, and SACE to develop the Adriatic Link, a strategic submarine power line connecting Marche and Abruzzo. This project aims to enhance energy exchange and integrate renewable sources in Central Italy, contributing to national energy security and economic development in cohesion regions. The financing underscores Terna’s strategic importance in modernizing Italy’s energy infrastructure and supporting the energy transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Expands Financial Flexibility with EMTN Program Renewals
Jun 25, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has renewed its Euro Medium Term Note Programme (EMTN) of 12 billion euros, authorized by the CSSF and listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. Additionally, Terna has established a new EMTN program of 4 billion euros, authorized by CONSOB and listed on the MOT of Borsa Italiana. These programs, supported by ratings from S&P and Moody’s, aim to enhance Terna’s financial flexibility and support its ongoing investments in energy infrastructure, reflecting its strategic focus on sustainable energy solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

TERNA S.p.A. Announces New Director and Adjusts Financial Calendar
Jun 24, 2025

TERNA S.p.A. has appointed Stefano Cappiello as a non-executive and independent director following the resignation of Francesco Renato Mele. This change aligns with the company’s diversity policies and governance standards, ensuring Cappiello’s independence despite his employment with the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Additionally, TERNA has rescheduled its Board of Directors meeting for the approval of the half-year financial report to July 29, 2025, a day earlier than previously announced.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Releases Shareholders’ Meeting Minutes
Jun 17, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has made available the minutes of its ordinary shareholders’ meeting held on 21 May 2025. The documentation is accessible to the public through various platforms, including the company’s website and the authorized storage mechanism ‘1Info’, as well as filed with Borsa Italiana S.p.A., reflecting transparency and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Board Member Resigns
May 28, 2025

Enrico Tommaso Cucchiani, a non-executive and independent director of Terna S.p.A., has resigned due to new professional commitments. His resignation will be effective upon the appointment of his successor. Cucchiani was elected in May 2023 and served as chairman of the Remuneration and Nominations Committee and a member of the Control and Risks Committee. Terna S.p.A. has expressed gratitude for his contributions and stated that no indemnities or benefits will be provided following his departure.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Announces Dividend Payment for 2024
May 22, 2025

Terna S.p.A. announced the payment of a dividend of 0.2770 Euro per share for the financial year ending December 31, 2024, to be distributed starting June 25, 2025. This decision, approved by the shareholders’ meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders, while the retained earnings from its own shares will be allocated to reserves.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Approves 2024 Financials and New Strategic Plans
May 21, 2025

Terna S.p.A.’s shareholders approved the 2024 Annual Financial Report and a dividend distribution of 39.62 cents per share, aligning with their dividend policy. The company also introduced a new Performance Share Plan for 2025-2029 and authorized the purchase and disposal of own shares, reflecting strategic moves to enhance shareholder value and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Releases Interim Management Report for Q1 2025
May 15, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has made its consolidated interim management report as of March 31, 2025, available to the public. This report, approved by the Board of Directors, is accessible on the company’s website and through various official channels, reflecting Terna’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Increased Investments
May 15, 2025

Terna S.p.A. reported strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, with significant growth in investments aimed at enhancing the Italian electric system’s safety and supporting the energy transition. The company achieved a 5.1% increase in revenues and a 3.8% rise in EBITDA, driven by growth in both regulated and non-regulated activities. Investments rose by 16.4%, reflecting Terna’s commitment to infrastructure development, which is vital for a resilient and interconnected electric system. These results underscore Terna’s strategic importance in Italy’s energy landscape and its dedication to achieving its Industrial Plan goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Releases Financial Documentation
May 6, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has made available to the public the latest financial statements of its subsidiaries and a summary prospectus of the associated companies’ financial data. Additionally, the accounting situations of non-EU subsidiaries have been released for the purpose of drafting the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025