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Terna S.p.A. (IT:TRN)
:TRN

Terna S.p.A. (TRN) AI Stock Analysis

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IT

Terna S.p.A.

(LSE:TRN)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
Terna S.p.A. exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability, supported by solid technical indicators suggesting positive momentum. The company's valuation is attractive, balancing growth and income potential. While high leverage and negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures should be monitored, the overall outlook is positive for this well-managed utility company.
Positive Factors
Dividends
The solid 2024 dividend could be the main good news for investors, providing a stable investment floor.
Energy Transition
Terna's role as a key enabler for the energy transition is consolidated with increased investments.
Negative Factors
Quarterly Performance
An expectation of 4Q24 to be weaker than previous quarters, affecting the full-year results.

Terna S.p.A. (TRN) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

Terna S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTerna S.p.A. (TRN) is an Italian electricity transmission system operator responsible for the management and maintenance of the national high-voltage electricity transmission grid. The company plays a crucial role in ensuring the stability and efficiency of Italy's electricity supply. Terna's core operations include the development, operation, and maintenance of the electricity transmission network, as well as the integration of renewable energy sources into the national grid.
How the Company Makes MoneyTerna S.p.A. generates revenue primarily through regulated activities related to the transportation of electricity across Italy's transmission network. The company's earnings are mainly derived from tariffs set by the Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks, and Environment (ARERA), which compensates Terna for its investment in grid infrastructure and management services. Additionally, Terna engages in non-regulated activities, such as providing consultancy and engineering services both domestically and internationally. Partnerships with renewable energy producers and investments in grid modernization and expansion projects also contribute to its revenue streams.

Terna S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Terna S.p.A. demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth, high profitability margins, and effective capital management. The balance sheet shows a stable financial position, despite high leverage typical of the utilities sector. The company's cash flow generation is solid, although negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures should be monitored. Terna's financial statements reflect a well-managed utility company with strong operational performance and prudent financial management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Terna S.p.A. has exhibited strong revenue growth with a steady trajectory over recent years, increasing from €2.32 billion in 2019 to €3.68 billion in 2024. The company maintains high gross and net profit margins, consistently above industry averages, with a gross profit margin of 82.06% and a net profit margin of 28.84% in 2024. This indicates efficient cost management and robust profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect solid operational performance. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trend and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Terna's balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 27.68% in 2024, indicating a high level of asset financing through equity. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.84, reflecting significant leverage but is manageable within the utility sector norms. Return on equity is robust at 14.11%, signaling effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The balance sheet is stable with a healthy mix of debt and equity financing, though high leverage requires monitoring for potential risks.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Terna's cash flow statement indicates stable operating cash flows relative to net income, with a ratio of 1.38 in 2024, suggesting strong cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow is negative due to substantial capital expenditures, which are common in the utilities sector for infrastructure investments. While free cash flow growth is a concern, the company maintains positive operating cash flows, supporting ongoing operations and dividend commitments.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.68B3.15B2.92B2.57B2.40B
Gross Profit
3.02B2.58B2.42B2.16B2.06B
EBIT
1.68B1.36B1.33B1.20B1.18B
EBITDA
2.57B2.11B2.04B1.83B1.73B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.06B885.40M857.00M789.40M785.50M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.76B1.74B2.41B2.55B3.31B
Total Assets
27.19B23.47B22.83B22.39B20.70B
Total Debt
13.86B12.98B11.76B12.42B12.25B
Net Debt
11.55B11.61B9.60B10.86B9.56B
Total Liabilities
19.64B17.10B17.58B17.60B16.28B
Stockholders Equity
7.52B6.32B5.15B4.68B4.37B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.16B-963.90M831.40M-511.90M-245.20M
Operating Cash Flow
1.47B1.08B2.32B832.30M941.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-2.40B-2.33B-1.86B-863.30M-1.39B
Financing Cash Flow
1.87B464.30M92.50M-1.05B2.08B

Terna S.p.A. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.93
Price Trends
50DMA
8.61
Positive
100DMA
8.26
Positive
200DMA
8.04
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.09
Positive
RSI
57.05
Neutral
STOCH
23.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:TRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.89, above the 50-day MA of 8.61, and above the 200-day MA of 8.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:TRN.

Terna S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ITTRN
78
Outperform
€17.93B16.8619.05%2.67%15.80%19.91%
ITENI
76
Outperform
€41.61B16.384.83%7.33%-1.16%-23.76%
ITSRG
75
Outperform
€17.54B13.9316.18%4.44%-16.40%10.90%
ITARN
68
Neutral
€891.07M9.2027.86%3.71%36.33%44.25%
58
Neutral
$7.43B3.43-4.49%10.08%0.81%-49.42%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IT:TRN
Terna S.p.A.
8.93
1.66
22.78%
IT:ENI
ENI S.p.A.
13.86
1.09
8.56%
IT:SRG
SNAM S.p.A.
5.25
1.21
29.85%
IT:ARN
Alerion CleanPower
17.00
0.01
0.06%

Terna S.p.A. Corporate Events

Terna S.p.A. Board Member Resigns
May 28, 2025

Enrico Tommaso Cucchiani, a non-executive and independent director of Terna S.p.A., has resigned due to new professional commitments. His resignation will be effective upon the appointment of his successor. Cucchiani was elected in May 2023 and served as chairman of the Remuneration and Nominations Committee and a member of the Control and Risks Committee. Terna S.p.A. has expressed gratitude for his contributions and stated that no indemnities or benefits will be provided following his departure.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Announces Dividend Payment for 2024
May 22, 2025

Terna S.p.A. announced the payment of a dividend of 0.2770 Euro per share for the financial year ending December 31, 2024, to be distributed starting June 25, 2025. This decision, approved by the shareholders’ meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders, while the retained earnings from its own shares will be allocated to reserves.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Approves 2024 Financials and New Strategic Plans
May 21, 2025

Terna S.p.A.’s shareholders approved the 2024 Annual Financial Report and a dividend distribution of 39.62 cents per share, aligning with their dividend policy. The company also introduced a new Performance Share Plan for 2025-2029 and authorized the purchase and disposal of own shares, reflecting strategic moves to enhance shareholder value and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR9.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Releases Interim Management Report for Q1 2025
May 15, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has made its consolidated interim management report as of March 31, 2025, available to the public. This report, approved by the Board of Directors, is accessible on the company’s website and through various official channels, reflecting Terna’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Increased Investments
May 15, 2025

Terna S.p.A. reported strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, with significant growth in investments aimed at enhancing the Italian electric system’s safety and supporting the energy transition. The company achieved a 5.1% increase in revenues and a 3.8% rise in EBITDA, driven by growth in both regulated and non-regulated activities. Investments rose by 16.4%, reflecting Terna’s commitment to infrastructure development, which is vital for a resilient and interconnected electric system. These results underscore Terna’s strategic importance in Italy’s energy landscape and its dedication to achieving its Industrial Plan goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:TRN) stock is a Hold with a EUR8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Terna S.p.A. stock, see the IT:TRN Stock Forecast page.

Terna S.p.A. Releases Financial Documentation
May 6, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has made available to the public the latest financial statements of its subsidiaries and a summary prospectus of the associated companies’ financial data. Additionally, the accounting situations of non-EU subsidiaries have been released for the purpose of drafting the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024.

Terna S.p.A. Files 2024 Annual Financial Report
Apr 30, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has filed its 2024 Annual Financial Report, which includes various reports such as the management report, consolidated sustainability report, and financial statements. This documentation reflects Terna’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder trust.

Terna S.p.A. Files 2024 Financial and Governance Reports
Apr 29, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has filed its 2024 Annual Financial Report and other key governance documents with Borsa Italiana and made them publicly available. This filing includes comprehensive financial statements and sustainability reports, reflecting Terna’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, which may enhance stakeholder confidence and influence its market position.

Terna S.p.A. Announces Shareholders’ Meeting to Discuss 2024 Financials and Strategic Plans
Apr 18, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has announced its upcoming Shareholders’ Meeting, scheduled for May 21, 2025, in Rome, where it will discuss the 2024 Annual Financial Report, profit allocation, a long-term incentive plan, and authorization related to treasury shares. The meeting will also address the remuneration policy and compensation reports. This meeting is significant for stakeholders as it outlines Terna’s financial health and strategic plans, potentially impacting its market position and shareholder value.

Terna S.p.A. Files Key Documents Ahead of Shareholders’ Meeting
Apr 17, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has filed several important documents with Borsa Italiana S.p.A., including reports on the agenda for its upcoming Shareholders’ Meeting, a Long-Term Incentive Plan, and a remuneration policy report. These filings are crucial for stakeholders as they outline the company’s strategic plans and compensation frameworks, impacting future governance and operational strategies.

Terna S.p.A. Announces 2025 Shareholders’ Meeting with Key Financial Decisions
Apr 17, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has announced the convening of its ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting on May 21, 2025, to discuss key agenda items including the 2024 Annual Financial Report, profit allocation, a Long-Term Incentive Plan, and authorization for treasury share transactions. The meeting will be held virtually, allowing participation through a Sole Representative, Computershare S.p.A., in line with Italian legislative provisions. This meeting is significant as it addresses strategic financial decisions and governance policies that may impact the company’s future operations and stakeholder interests.

S&P Upgrades Terna’s Credit Rating to A-
Apr 15, 2025

S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Terna S.p.A.’s long-term credit rating from ‘BBB+’ to ‘A-‘, reflecting improved creditworthiness following the Italian Republic’s rating upgrade. This enhancement in Terna’s rating, while maintaining a stable outlook, signifies strengthened financial stability and could positively impact its market position and stakeholder confidence.

Terna S.p.A. Announces Record Investments in Updated 2024-2028 Industrial Plan
Mar 25, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has approved an updated Industrial Plan for 2024-2028, highlighting a record investment of 17.7 billion euros to enhance Italy’s electricity grid and support energy transition. The plan emphasizes sustainable development, digitalization, and renewable integration, aiming to strengthen the country’s energy security and independence. The company reported significant financial growth in 2024, with a notable increase in revenues, EBITDA, and net profit, alongside a commitment to sustainability and achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Terna Strengthens Financial Strategy with ESG-Linked Credit Line
Mar 21, 2025

Terna S.p.A. has refinanced its ESG-linked revolving credit line, increasing it to 1.8 billion euros and extending its duration to five years. This move reinforces Terna’s commitment to sustainability by integrating ESG objectives into its financial strategy, thereby strengthening its financial structure and ensuring adequate liquidity.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.