Avio S.p.A. (AVIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €615.21M
• Dividend Yield: 0.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 218.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 98.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 38.67%
• EPS Growth: -6.16%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 1,352
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 27,159,346
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 299,624
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 218,637
• PEG Ratio: -2.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €21.50
• Price Target Upside: -8.90% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: €26.00 ▲(10.17%Upside)

Avio S.p.A.'s overall stock score is primarily supported by strong technical analysis showing significant bullish momentum. The solid financial performance, despite challenges in revenue growth and cash flow fluctuations, supports stability. However, the high P/E ratio raises concerns about overvaluation, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of earnings.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Revenues rose to €108mn, up 37% YoY and well above our €85.9mn forecast.

Market Position

Avio boasts an almost unique position in the European space and defence domain, providing an opportunity to invest in the ongoing recovery in European space launches and the expected boom in defence spending.

Order Backlog

The order book reached a new record of €1,724mn, exceeding both our forecast of €1,550mn and the guidance range of €1,500mn to €1,600mn thanks to the orders signed in December.

Negative Factors

Guidance

2025 Guidance slightly below estimates, but focus remains on the longer term.

Valuation

Following the recent stock rally, the current valuation fairly captures the company’s short-medium term prospects.

Avio S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avio S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, and production of propellant propulsion systems for space launchers in Italy and internationally. It is involved in the design, development, and production of solid propellant propulsion systems for tactical missiles; development, integration, and supply of light space launchers; and research and development of low environmental impact propulsion systems, and satellite tracking control motors. The company also offers propulsion boosters, liquid oxygen turbo pumps, and aerodynamic control surfaces. It offers space launchers under the VEGA and ARIANE names. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Rome, Italy.

How the Company Makes Money

Avio S.p.A. generates revenue through the design, development, and production of propulsion systems used in space launch vehicles and satellites. The company earns money primarily by securing contracts with government space agencies and private aerospace companies for the supply of its propulsion technologies. A significant portion of Avio's revenue comes from its involvement in the Ariane and Vega programs, where it provides critical components such as solid rocket motors and liquid propulsion systems. Additionally, Avio benefits from partnerships and collaborations with major aerospace entities, contributing to its financial stability and growth.

Avio S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Avio S.p.A. exhibits a sound financial position with strong balance sheet metrics and efficient cost management. However, the company faces challenges in revenue growth and fluctuating free cash flow growth, which highlight areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Avio S.p.A. shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company faced a significant revenue contraction from 2023 to 2024, indicating challenges in sales growth. However, the gross profit margin remains robust, suggesting effective cost management. The net profit margin is relatively modest, reflecting pressures on profitability despite improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins, which indicate better operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Avio maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio, highlighting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio is strong, indicating a stable capital structure with significant shareholder equity. Return on Equity (ROE) is moderate, reflecting stable, albeit not exceptional, profitability relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals moderate strength with positive free cash flow and growth in operating cash flow. However, free cash flow growth rate shows fluctuations, signaling potential cash management issues. The company effectively converts operating cash flow into net income, showcasing good cash flow management relative to earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	480.42M	343.70M	73.22M	324.14M	206.11M
Gross Profit	136.22M	113.89M	72.40M	96.64M	105.57M
EBITDA	25.83M	22.41M	21.45M	30.15M	35.34M
Net Income	6.09M	6.49M	-435.00K	8.48M	14.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09B	1.06B	1.29B	1.24B	1.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	101.68M	95.59M	131.40M	104.61M	124.67M
Total Debt	11.59M	19.46M	56.95M	47.45M	62.03M
Total Liabilities	779.52M	744.75M	982.10M	926.12M	810.48M
Stockholders Equity	302.83M	300.62M	293.66M	302.48M	303.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	25.10M	6.14M	33.22M	7.54M	12.80M
Operating Cash Flow	60.26M	42.48M	65.74M	41.26M	47.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-35.16M	-38.85M	-34.23M	-33.71M	-34.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.01M	-39.44M	-4.72M	-27.59M	-32.44M

Avio S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:AVIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.21, above the 50-day MA of 20.29, and above the 200-day MA of 15.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:AVIO.

Avio S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVIO	71 Outperform	€615.21M	97.97	2.02%	0.63%	38.67%	-6.16%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.56B	15.49	5.57%	1.96%	2.71%	-26.28%
0QWN		€5.04B	―		―	―	―
0ONG		€26.82B	25.00	12.77%	0.96%	―	―
8WD		€305.70M	18.72	23.79%	1.83%	―	―
NUS		€19.65M	18.01		―	―	―
YRM		€378.10M	12.69		1.75%	―	―