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Fincantieri S.p.A.
(FCT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
€14.50
▲(13.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
The overall score of 61 reflects a balance between improving but still fragile fundamentals and weak technicals, with a slightly demanding valuation. The most important driver is financial performance: Fincantieri has moved from losses to profits, grown revenue steadily, and reduced leverage, yet it still operates with thin margins, a legacy of high debt, and volatile free cash flow, leaving limited room for error in a capital-intensive industry. Technical conditions are the main drag, as the share price is in a clear downtrend below all major moving averages with negative momentum, signaling limited near-term strength despite approaching oversold levels. Valuation contributes a modestly positive but constrained influence: a mid‑20s P/E multiple looks acceptable for a turnaround story but offers limited margin of safety given the operational and balance-sheet risks, keeping the stock in a cautiously neutral zone rather than clearly attractive or clearly distressed.
Positive Factors
Diversified, end-to-end shipbuilding model
Fincantieri's integrated model—design, construction, outfitting, delivery and lifecycle services across cruise, naval and specialized ships—creates multiple revenue streams and long-term customer ties. Multi-year programs and after-sales work provide durable backlog visibility and recurring service revenue.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio around 2.4x leaves limited financial flexibility for a capital-intensive shipbuilding business. High leverage increases interest obligations and refinancing risk, constraining the firm's ability to absorb project cost overruns or to fund new bidding and investment without materially worsening credit metrics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified, end-to-end shipbuilding model
Fincantieri's integrated model—design, construction, outfitting, delivery and lifecycle services across cruise, naval and specialized ships—creates multiple revenue streams and long-term customer ties. Multi-year programs and after-sales work provide durable backlog visibility and recurring service revenue.
Read all positive factors
Fincantieri S.p.A. (FCT) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€4.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.7
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-0.60%
EPS Growth39.15%
CountryIT
Employees24,370
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding358,785,770
10 Day Avg. Volume2,056,717
30 Day Avg. Volume1,768,952
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)5.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio26.48
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€18.83Price Target Upside47.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)€9.39B
Fincantieri S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fincantieri S.p.A. is a global leader in the shipbuilding sector, with operations organized into three main divisions: Shipbuilding, Offshore and Specialized Vessels, and Equipment, Systems and Infrastructure. The Shipbuilding segment is responsib...
How the Company Makes Money
Fincantieri makes money mainly by executing large, long-duration shipbuilding contracts and providing related services across the vessel lifecycle.
1) Newbuild shipbuilding contracts (primary revenue stream)
- Commercial ships (notably cruise): F...
Fincantieri S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive on commercial momentum and profitability: record order intake (EUR 20.3bn), record backlog (EUR 63.2bn), double‑digit revenue growth (+13% YoY), large EBITDA increase (+~34%) and a record net profit (EUR 117m). Balance sheet metrics improved materially (net debt/EBITDA 2.7x) and a EUR 500m capital increase enhances flexibility. Key strengths include exceptional underwater and defense growth, improved cruise economics from capacity saturation, and a deep pipeline including U.S. opportunities. Remaining concerns are timing volatility in naval revenue recognition, increased D&A from the WASS acquisition, a rise in reverse factoring, and limited disclosure on margins for specific new cruise awards—factors that introduce near‑term uncertainty but appear manageable given the company’s operational execution and financial actions.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues of approximately EUR 9.2 billion, up ~13.1% year‑on‑year. EBITDA rose to EUR 681 million, up ~34% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 7.4% versus 6.3% in 2024 (≈ +1.1 percentage points).
Negative Updates
Timing/Revenue Volatility in Naval Production
Management flagged a slowdown in naval top‑line recognition in Q4 2025 tied to production curve timing rather than demand; this creates short‑term revenue timing risk even with strong backlog visibility.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues of approximately EUR 9.2 billion, up ~13.1% year‑on‑year. EBITDA rose to EUR 681 million, up ~34% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 7.4% versus 6.3% in 2024 (≈ +1.1 percentage points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Fincantieri reconfirmed its 2026 guidance with revenues of EUR 9.2–9.3 billion, EBITDA of ~EUR 700 million (EBITDA margin around 7.5%), adjusted net debt/EBITDA of ~2.0x (1.3x including the EUR 500 million capital increase completed in Feb‑2026), and net profit expected to be higher than 2025’s record EUR 117 million; this guidance is supported by 2025 outperformance (revenues ~EUR 9.2 billion, EBITDA EUR 681 million and 7.4% margin, net debt/EBITDA 2.7x), a record order intake of EUR 20.3 billion, total backlog of EUR 63.2 billion (~6.9 years of work) and a book‑to‑bill of 2.2x.Fincantieri S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.92B | 7.95B | 7.45B | 7.35B | 6.80B |
| Gross Profit | 577.93M | 1.70B | 1.55B | 1.34B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 413.08M | 557.96M | 395.24M | 3.80M | 383.08M |
| Net Income | 123.00M | 32.83M | -52.83M | -308.87M | 21.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.35B | 9.56B | 8.71B | 8.71B | 9.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 513.00M | 684.46M | 757.27M | 564.58M | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 2.29B | 2.33B | 2.91B | 3.21B | 3.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.31B | 8.72B | 8.28B | 8.12B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 997.00M | 849.46M | 433.12M | 585.50M | 818.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 203.62M | 180.80M | 378.40M | -352.60M | 504.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.28M | 444.73M | 636.73M | -57.72M | 862.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -666.71M | -240.47M | -104.95M | -225.01M | -535.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -94.84M | -272.38M | -331.26M | -389.52M | -377.51M |
Fincantieri S.p.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €31.70B | 26.00 | 13.19% | 1.21% | 10.11% | 7.22% | |
65 Neutral | €4.23B | 15.72 | 40.46% | 4.20% | 8.66% | 16.10% | |
65 Neutral | €2.25B | 9.36 | 14.74% | 3.80% | 7.97% | -3.48% | |
64 Neutral | €8.26B | 26.24 | 11.83% | 3.86% | 1.88% | -19.31% | |
62 Neutral | €35.12B | 25.68 | 21.97% | 0.71% | 12.59% | 83.23% | |
61 Neutral | €4.86B | 27.74 | 17.64% | ― | -0.60% | 39.15% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
IT:FCT
Fincantieri S.p.A.
13.56
-3.22
-19.17%
IT:LDO
Leonardo Spa
55.12
8.36
17.87%
IT:MAIRE
MaireTecnimont SpA
12.89
1.29
11.12%
IT:PRY
Prysmian SpA
120.20
50.36
72.11%
IT:WBD
Webuild SpA
2.25
-1.61
-41.80%
IT:SPM
Saipem SpA
4.19
2.06
96.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.