Fincantieri S.p.A. (IT:FCT)
:FCT
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Fincantieri S.p.A.
(FCT)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
€10.50
▼(-23.69% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improving but still constrained fundamentals: revenue growth and recent profitability are offset by very thin margins, cash-flow volatility, and a levered balance sheet. Technical signals are notably weak (price below all key moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation (P/E ~23.6 with no dividend yield provided) does not sufficiently compensate for the financial and momentum risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue and profit recovery
Fincantieri's step-up in revenue and return to sustained profitability through 2024–2025 indicates project delivery and pricing improvements. Durable recovery supports backlog conversion, underpins future cash generation, and reduces structural solvency risk versus prior loss years.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A materially levered capital structure constrains flexibility: interest and principal commitments increase vulnerability to margin or execution shocks. With thin net margins, high leverage raises refinancing and liquidity risk and limits strategic investment capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and profit recovery
Fincantieri's step-up in revenue and return to sustained profitability through 2024–2025 indicates project delivery and pricing improvements. Durable recovery supports backlog conversion, underpins future cash generation, and reduces structural solvency risk versus prior loss years.
Read all positive factors
Fincantieri S.p.A. (FCT) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€4.07B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.2
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth12.19%
EPS Growth177.33%
CountryIT
Employees22,270
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding358,692,960
10 Day Avg. Volume2,056,717
30 Day Avg. Volume1,768,952
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)5.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio26.48
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€18.00Price Target Upside30.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)€9.35B
Fincantieri S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fincantieri S.p.A. is a global leader in the shipbuilding sector, with operations organized into three main divisions: Shipbuilding, Offshore and Specialized Vessels, and Equipment, Systems and Infrastructure. The Shipbuilding segment is responsib...
How the Company Makes Money
Fincantieri makes money mainly by contracting to design and build ships and delivering them to customers under multi-year projects. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Cruise shipbuilding: revenue from construction contracts for large cruise ves...
Fincantieri S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive on commercial momentum and profitability: record order intake (EUR 20.3bn), record backlog (EUR 63.2bn), double‑digit revenue growth (+13% YoY), large EBITDA increase (+~34%) and a record net profit (EUR 117m). Balance sheet metrics improved materially (net debt/EBITDA 2.7x) and a EUR 500m capital increase enhances flexibility. Key strengths include exceptional underwater and defense growth, improved cruise economics from capacity saturation, and a deep pipeline including U.S. opportunities. Remaining concerns are timing volatility in naval revenue recognition, increased D&A from the WASS acquisition, a rise in reverse factoring, and limited disclosure on margins for specific new cruise awards—factors that introduce near‑term uncertainty but appear manageable given the company’s operational execution and financial actions.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues of approximately EUR 9.2 billion, up ~13.1% year‑on‑year. EBITDA rose to EUR 681 million, up ~34% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 7.4% versus 6.3% in 2024 (≈ +1.1 percentage points).
Negative Updates
Timing/Revenue Volatility in Naval Production
Management flagged a slowdown in naval top‑line recognition in Q4 2025 tied to production curve timing rather than demand; this creates short‑term revenue timing risk even with strong backlog visibility.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues of approximately EUR 9.2 billion, up ~13.1% year‑on‑year. EBITDA rose to EUR 681 million, up ~34% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 7.4% versus 6.3% in 2024 (≈ +1.1 percentage points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Fincantieri reconfirmed its 2026 guidance with revenues of EUR 9.2–9.3 billion, EBITDA of ~EUR 700 million (EBITDA margin around 7.5%), adjusted net debt/EBITDA of ~2.0x (1.3x including the EUR 500 million capital increase completed in Feb‑2026), and net profit expected to be higher than 2025’s record EUR 117 million; this guidance is supported by 2025 outperformance (revenues ~EUR 9.2 billion, EBITDA EUR 681 million and 7.4% margin, net debt/EBITDA 2.7x), a record order intake of EUR 20.3 billion, total backlog of EUR 63.2 billion (~6.9 years of work) and a book‑to‑bill of 2.2x.Fincantieri S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.19B | 7.95B | 7.45B | 7.35B | 6.80B |
| Gross Profit | 415.00M | 1.70B | 1.55B | 1.34B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 681.00M | 557.96M | 395.24M | 3.80M | 383.08M |
| Net Income | 117.00M | 32.83M | -52.83M | -308.87M | 21.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.51B | 9.56B | 8.71B | 8.71B | 9.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 513.00M | 684.46M | 757.27M | 564.58M | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 2.29B | 2.33B | 2.91B | 3.21B | 3.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.52B | 8.72B | 8.28B | 8.12B | 8.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 997.00M | 849.46M | 433.12M | 585.50M | 818.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 203.62M | 180.80M | 378.40M | -352.60M | 504.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 596.28M | 444.73M | 636.73M | -57.72M | 862.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -666.71M | -240.47M | -104.95M | -225.01M | -535.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -94.84M | -272.38M | -331.26M | -389.52M | -377.51M |
Fincantieri S.p.A. Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.76
Price Trends
12.14
Negative
13.53
Negative
16.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.30
Negative
47.75
Neutral
27.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:FCT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.32, above the 50-day MA of 12.14, and below the 200-day MA of 16.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:FCT.
Fincantieri S.p.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | €4.65B | 18.18 | 42.37% | 2.73% | 12.34% | 23.90% | |
72 Outperform | €30.89B | 25.21 | 12.10% | 1.05% | 9.80% | 13.78% | |
72 Outperform | €41.77B | 32.39 | 22.15% | 0.93% | 10.97% | 94.23% | |
66 Neutral | €9.23B | 38.49 | 13.05% | 6.99% | 6.52% | 1.86% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
50 Neutral | €2.37B | 10.11 | 15.02% | 2.32% | 14.59% | 23.80% | |
49 Neutral | €4.07B | 25.16 | 14.30% | ― | 12.19% | 177.33% |
* General Sector Average
IT:FCT
Fincantieri S.p.A.
11.48
-3.10
-21.26%
IT:LDO
Leonardo Spa
53.48
4.90
10.09%
IT:MAIRE
MaireTecnimont SpA
15.08
4.41
41.37%
IT:PRY
Prysmian SpA
143.90
86.69
151.52%
IT:WBD
Webuild SpA
2.45
-0.90
-26.90%
IT:SPM
Saipem SpA
4.72
2.46
108.94%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.