Fincantieri S.p.A. (IT:FCT)
:FCT
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Fincantieri S.p.A.
(FCT)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
€18.00
▲(28.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/23/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals and a highly constructive earnings outlook (strong guidance, record backlog/order intake). This is tempered by thin EBIT profitability and high leverage, while the technical setup remains weak with the price below major moving averages. Valuation is also a headwind given the high P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Record backlog
A backlog of EUR 61.1bn provides multi-year revenue visibility and secures future workload across cruise, naval and offshore segments. This reduces revenue cyclicality, supports capacity planning and underpins predictable cash flows as contracts convert over several years.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A debt-to-equity of 2.74 signals significant leverage that constrains financial flexibility. High debt increases interest and refinancing risk, limits ability to fund strategic investments, and makes the business more sensitive to project delays or margin pressure over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog
A backlog of EUR 61.1bn provides multi-year revenue visibility and secures future workload across cruise, naval and offshore segments. This reduces revenue cyclicality, supports capacity planning and underpins predictable cash flows as contracts convert over several years.
Read all positive factors
Fincantieri S.p.A. (FCT) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€5.03B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)46.1
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth18.44%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryIT
Employees22,270
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding358,493,740
10 Day Avg. Volume2,056,717
30 Day Avg. Volume1,768,952
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)1.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.21
P/FCF Ratio9.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€17.75Price Target Upside26.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)€9.24B
Fincantieri S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fincantieri S.p.A. operates in the shipbuilding industry worldwide. It operates in three segments: Shipbuilding; Offshore and Specialized Vessels; and Equipment, Systems and Infrastructure. The Shipbuilding segment designs and constructs cruise sh...
How the Company Makes Money
Fincantieri generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the construction and sale of ships across various segments. The company earns significant income from its naval shipbuilding division, which produces military vessels for gover...
Fincantieri S.p.A. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive on commercial momentum and profitability: record order intake (EUR 20.3bn), record backlog (EUR 63.2bn), double‑digit revenue growth (+13% YoY), large EBITDA increase (+~34%) and a record net profit (EUR 117m). Balance sheet metrics improved materially (net debt/EBITDA 2.7x) and a EUR 500m capital increase enhances flexibility. Key strengths include exceptional underwater and defense growth, improved cruise economics from capacity saturation, and a deep pipeline including U.S. opportunities. Remaining concerns are timing volatility in naval revenue recognition, increased D&A from the WASS acquisition, a rise in reverse factoring, and limited disclosure on margins for specific new cruise awards—factors that introduce near‑term uncertainty but appear manageable given the company’s operational execution and financial actions.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues of approximately EUR 9.2 billion, up ~13.1% year‑on‑year. EBITDA rose to EUR 681 million, up ~34% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 7.4% versus 6.3% in 2024 (≈ +1.1 percentage points).
Negative Updates
Timing/Revenue Volatility in Naval Production
Management flagged a slowdown in naval top‑line recognition in Q4 2025 tied to production curve timing rather than demand; this creates short‑term revenue timing risk even with strong backlog visibility.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenues of approximately EUR 9.2 billion, up ~13.1% year‑on‑year. EBITDA rose to EUR 681 million, up ~34% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 7.4% versus 6.3% in 2024 (≈ +1.1 percentage points).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Fincantieri reconfirmed its 2026 guidance with revenues of EUR 9.2–9.3 billion, EBITDA of ~EUR 700 million (EBITDA margin around 7.5%), adjusted net debt/EBITDA of ~2.0x (1.3x including the EUR 500 million capital increase completed in Feb‑2026), and net profit expected to be higher than 2025’s record EUR 117 million; this guidance is supported by 2025 outperformance (revenues ~EUR 9.2 billion, EBITDA EUR 681 million and 7.4% margin, net debt/EBITDA 2.7x), a record order intake of EUR 20.3 billion, total backlog of EUR 63.2 billion (~6.9 years of work) and a book‑to‑bill of 2.2x.Fincantieri S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.84B | 7.95B | 7.45B | 7.35B | 6.80B | 5.78B |
| Gross Profit | 1.94B | 1.70B | 1.55B | 1.34B | 1.49B | 1.05B |
| EBITDA | 515.57M | 557.96M | 395.24M | 3.80M | 383.08M | 19.03M |
| Net Income | 95.60M | 32.83M | -52.83M | -308.87M | 21.78M | -240.06M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.43B | 9.56B | 8.71B | 8.71B | 9.08B | 8.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 503.59M | 684.46M | 757.27M | 564.58M | 1.24B | 1.27B |
| Total Debt | 2.54B | 2.33B | 2.91B | 3.21B | 3.56B | 3.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.56B | 8.72B | 8.28B | 8.12B | 8.25B | 7.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 878.02M | 849.46M | 433.12M | 585.50M | 818.58M | 761.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 536.82M | 180.80M | 378.40M | -352.60M | 504.56M | -852.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 713.69M | 444.73M | 636.73M | -57.72M | 862.37M | -543.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -915.88M | -240.47M | -104.95M | -225.01M | -535.22M | -376.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.30M | -272.38M | -331.26M | -389.52M | -377.51M | 1.82B |
Fincantieri S.p.A. Technical Analysis
Negative
14.04
Price Trends
14.47
Negative
16.23
Negative
17.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
54.19
Neutral
82.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:FCT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.22, below the 50-day MA of 14.47, and below the 200-day MA of 17.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:FCT.
Fincantieri S.p.A. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | €33.15B | 20.00 | 22.15% | 0.93% | 21.75% | 92.91% | |
72 Outperform | €34.19B | 23.17 | 12.10% | 1.05% | 14.13% | 5.99% | |
66 Neutral | €5.03B | 46.08 | 14.30% | ― | 18.44% | ― | |
66 Neutral | €8.26B | 15.58 | 13.05% | 6.99% | 18.52% | 29.29% | |
59 Neutral | €4.87B | 16.35 | 42.37% | 2.73% | 30.91% | 40.89% | |
58 Neutral | €2.57B | 7.65 | 15.02% | 2.32% | 21.15% | 17.26% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
IT:FCT
Fincantieri S.p.A.
14.04
4.14
41.82%
IT:LDO
Leonardo Spa
59.44
17.35
41.22%
IT:MAIRE
MaireTecnimont SpA
14.86
7.71
107.92%
IT:PRY
Prysmian SpA
115.60
73.10
172.01%
IT:WBD
Webuild SpA
2.56
-0.15
-5.35%
IT:SPM
Saipem SpA
4.19
2.61
165.40%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.