Icl (ICL) AI Stock Analysis

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Icl

(NYSE:ICL)

76Outperform

ICL's overall stock score reflects its financial stability and strong technical indicators. The earnings call highlights strengths in specialty-driven segments and strategic growth initiatives. However, profitability challenges and potash pricing headwinds pose risks that need addressing to sustain long-term growth.

Positive Factors

Commodity Performance

Phosphate is performing particularly well, helping ICL cope effectively with a volatile commodity setup.

Financial Performance

ICL raised the 2024 'specialties' umbrella EBITDA guidance range by approximately $100M to between $800M and $1B.

Negative Factors

Construction and Development

ICL is delaying the construction schedule for the St. Louis LFP cathode materials plant to better align start-up with Western world customer needs.

Icl (ICL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$7.14B

Dividend Yield3.39%

Average Volume (3M)1.07M

Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5

Beta (1Y)0.77

Revenue Growth-8.59%

EPS Growth-37.13%

CountryUS

Employees12,349

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength52

IndustryAgricultural Inputs

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.32

Shares Outstanding1,290,463,000

10 Day Avg. Volume884,382

30 Day Avg. Volume1,066,502

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.11

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)4.70

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.80

Price Target Upside-5.54% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering3

Icl Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionICL Group Ltd. (ICL) is a multinational company that specializes in the manufacturing and marketing of fertilizers, metals, and other chemical products. The company operates in various sectors, including agriculture, food, and engineered materials. ICL's core products include potash, phosphate fertilizers, specialty fertilizers, and industrial products, which are used in diverse applications such as agriculture, food production, and industrial processes.

How the Company Makes MoneyICL makes money primarily through the sale of its wide range of chemical and mineral products. The company's revenue streams include the production and distribution of potash and phosphate fertilizers, which are critical for agricultural applications. ICL also generates income from specialty fertilizers that cater to specific agricultural needs, enhancing crop yield and quality. Additionally, the company produces and sells industrial products and specialty chemicals used in various industries, including flame retardants, water treatment solutions, and food additives. Significant partnerships with agricultural businesses and industrial clients help expand its market reach, contributing to its earnings. Furthermore, ICL benefits from vertically integrated operations that ensure a steady supply of raw materials and cost efficiencies, bolstering its financial performance.

Icl Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ICL demonstrates financial stability with a solid balance sheet and consistent cash flow generation. However, declining revenue and profit margins highlight potential operational challenges. The company needs to address profitability and growth concerns to maintain competitiveness in the agriculture sector.

Income Statement

Positive

ICL's revenue has shown some fluctuation over the past years, with a notable drop from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin in 2024 was approximately 32.96%, indicating the company's ability to maintain a healthy margin, though it decreased from previous years indicating cost pressures. The net profit margin in 2024 was 5.95%, reflecting a decline from higher margins in past years, suggesting profitability challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also show a similar declining trend, which could indicate operational inefficiencies or increased costs.

Balance Sheet

Positive

ICL maintains a relatively stable balance sheet, with an equity ratio of 50.56% in 2024, suggesting a balanced approach to financing. The debt-to-equity ratio was approximately 0.40, which is manageable and indicates prudent financial leverage. Return on equity (ROE) has decreased over time, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Cash Flow

Positive

ICL's operating cash flow remains strong, with a slight decrease from 2023 to 2024, indicating consistent cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow to net income ratio reflects the company's ability to convert earnings into cash effectively. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been negative, indicating reduced cash availability for reinvestment or debt reduction.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.84B	7.54B	10.02B	6.96B	5.04B
	Gross Profit
2.26B	2.67B	5.03B	2.61B	1.49B
	EBIT
775.00M	1.14B	3.52B	1.21B	202.00M
	EBITDA
1.37B	1.67B	4.04B	1.66B	821.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
407.00M	647.00M	2.16B	783.00M	24.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
442.00M	592.00M	508.00M	564.00M	314.00M
	Total Assets
11.32B	11.63B	11.75B	11.08B	9.66B
	Total Debt
2.29B	2.69B	2.82B	3.01B	2.78B
	Net Debt
1.97B	2.27B	2.41B	2.54B	2.56B
	Total Liabilities
5.33B	5.59B	6.04B	6.34B	5.58B
	Stockholders Equity
5.72B	5.77B	5.46B	4.53B	3.93B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
755.00M	815.00M	1.28B	454.00M	178.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.47B	1.59B	2.02B	1.06B	804.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-694.00M	-863.00M	-754.00M	-579.00M	-583.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-846.00M	-712.00M	-1.30B	-244.00M	-105.00M

Icl Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price6.14

Price Trends

50DMA

5.94

Positive

100DMA

5.47

Positive

200DMA

4.79

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Positive

RSI

43.79

Neutral

STOCH

25.69

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.86, above the 50-day MA of 5.94, and above the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ICL.

Icl Risk Analysis

Icl disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Icl reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Icl Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (47)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	78 Outperform	$11.99B	10.69	22.76%	2.92%	-10.48%	-13.78%
ICL	76 Outperform	$7.14B	17.53	7.08%	3.39%	-8.59%	-37.13%
MOS	64 Neutral	$7.82B	45.25	1.47%	3.73%	-18.79%	-84.24%
FMC	63 Neutral	$4.40B	12.99	9.02%	6.83%	-5.36%	-74.25%
IPI	60 Neutral	$351.03M	―	-36.73%	―	-8.74%	-492.08%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.43B	-2.83	-21.77%	3.74%	4.16%	-28.83%
SMG	45 Neutral	$3.02B	―	4.98%	5.48%	3.61%	94.27%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ICL

Icl

6.14

1.44

30.64%

Cf Industries Holdings

70.50

-8.34

-10.58%

FMC

37.27

-21.57

-36.66%

IPI

Intrepid Potash

26.54

5.61

26.80%

MOS

Mosaic Co

24.68

-6.39

-20.57%

SMG

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

52.59

-16.51

-23.89%

Icl Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -4.21% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted the strong performance of ICL's specialty-driven businesses, strategic growth in key segments, and effective management of challenges, such as potash pricing headwinds and operational disruptions in Israel. Despite some lowlights, the overall sentiment leans towards positive with strong financial metrics and strategic initiatives positioning the company well for future growth.

Highlights

Strong Specialty-Driven Business Performance

Specialty-driven businesses represented 70% of 2024 EBITDA and 73% of fourth-quarter EBITDA. Annual EBITDA for specialties segments increased by 8%.

Industrial Products Segment Growth

Industrial Products segment sales were $1.239 billion, with a significant fourth-quarter EBITDA increase of 25% due to cost efficiency improvements.

Growing Solutions Business Improvement

Growing Solutions business saw EBITDA increase by 70% year-over-year, with fourth-quarter EBITDA margin improving from 3% to 12%.

Record Potash Production in Spain

Suria site in Spain achieved record potash production of over 800,000 metric tons, despite challenges.

Continued Dividend Distribution

ICL delivered a total of $242 million in dividend distribution, maintaining an industry-leading dividend yield of 3.8%.

Strategic Partnerships and Innovations

ICL expanded strategic relationships and launched new innovative products, strengthening its market position.

Lowlights

Potash Pricing Headwinds

Potash prices decreased 24% compared to the previous year, impacting overall revenue.

Challenges in Phosphate Solutions

Phosphate Solutions saw a slight year-over-year decrease in sales for the fourth quarter, with annual EBITDA also slightly decreasing.

Operational and Logistical Challenges in Israel

War-related disruptions affected production and logistics at Dead Sea operations, although mitigated to some extent.

Company Guidance

During the ICL Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for 2025, highlighting key financial metrics and strategic achievements. The CEO, Raviv Zoller, reported 2024 sales of $6.841 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.469 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 21%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.38. Despite a 24% decrease in potash prices, the specialties-driven business segments—Industrial Products, Phosphate Solutions, and Growing Solutions—contributed to an 8% annual EBITDA increase, representing 70% of total 2024 EBITDA. Free cash flow was $758 million, and a $242 million dividend was distributed, offering a 3.8% yield. For 2025, ICL expects specialties-driven EBITDA between $0.95 billion to $1.15 billion, with total potash sales volume projections of 4.5 to 4.7 million metric tons and an effective annual tax rate of approximately 30%. The company anticipates improvements in potash prices and highlighted strategic expansions in battery materials and sustainability-focused initiatives.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.