Icl (ICL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.80B
• Dividend Yield: 3.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.87
• Revenue Growth: 1.77%
• EPS Growth: -8.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,349
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 1,290,672,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,172,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,739,112
• PEG Ratio: -0.75
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 56.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.00
• 1Y Price Target: $5.87
• Price Target Upside: 11.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.53B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(4.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

ICL scores middle-of-the-road: financial performance is constrained by the post-2022 earnings and free-cash-flow downshift despite a decent balance sheet, while technicals remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is not especially attractive at a high P/E even with a ~3.37% yield, and the latest earnings call adds some support via constructive 2026 EBITDA guidance but with meaningful cost and currency headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strategic pivot to specialty growth via M&A

ICL's targeted M&A (Bartek, Lavie Bio) and explicit pivot to specialty crop nutrition and food solutions reorients revenue toward higher‑value, technical products. That structural shift supports steadier margins, stronger customer stickiness, and higher long‑term organic and acquisitive growth potential.

Potash operational recovery and contract visibility

Improved potash volumes, higher realized prices and record production reliability underpin durable cash generation from a core upstream business. Long‑term supply contracts (e.g., China framework) and production strengths provide steady revenue and margin support through commodity cycles.

Manageable leverage and liquidity buffer

A conservative leverage profile with meaningful liquidity and a strengthened equity base gives ICL durable financial flexibility. This balance‑sheet stance supports continued capital returns, portfolio optimization and targeted investments in specialty growth without acute refinancing pressure.

Negative Factors

Sharp free cash flow compression

Free cash flow fell materially in 2025, reducing internally available funds for capex, acquisition funding and dividends. This weaker cash conversion limits near‑term financial optionality, raises dependency on external financing or asset sales, and constrains the pace of specialty investments.

Sustained sulfur cost pressure on phosphates

A persistent, multi‑period spike in sulfur input costs materially compresses phosphate margins where pass‑through is limited. If elevated sulfur persists, phosphate profitability and segment cash flow will remain structurally impaired, tempering consolidated margin recovery despite pricing actions.

Material one‑time charges and regulatory/legal exposure

Large restructuring, impairment and legal fee recognitions signal regulatory and operational exposures tied to the Dead Sea concession and portfolio changes. These items both reduce reported earnings and indicate potential for future volatility or additional cash outlays tied to regulatory rulings and asset reviews.

Icl Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. It operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Innovative Ag Solutions (IAS). The Industrial Products segment produces bromine out of a solution that is a by-product of the potash production process, as well as bromine-based compounds; produces various grades of potash, salt, magnesium chloride, and magnesia products; and produces and markets phosphorous-based flame retardants and other phosphorus-based products. The Potash segment extracts potash from the Dead Sea; mines and produces potash and salt; produces Polysulphate; produces, markets, and sells magnesium and magnesium alloys, as well as related by-products, including chlorine and sylvinite; and sells salt. The Phosphate Solutions segment uses phosphate commodity products to produce specialty products; produces and markets phosphate-based fertilizers, as well as sulphuric acid, green phosphoric acid, and phosphate fertilizers; and manufactures thermal phosphoric acid for various industrial end markets, such as oral care, cleaning products, paints and coatings, water treatment, asphalt modification, construction, and metal treatment. It also develops and produces functional food ingredients and phosphate additives for use in the processed meat, poultry, seafood, dairy, beverage, and baked goods markets; and produces milk and whey proteins for the food ingredients industry. The IAS segment develops, manufactures, markets, and sells fertilizers based primarily on nitrogen, potash, and phosphate, including water soluble specialty, liquid, soluble, and controlled-release fertilizers. It sells its products through marketing companies, agents, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Israel Chemicals Ltd. and changed its name to ICL Group Ltd in May 2020. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

ICL makes money by producing and selling mineral- and chemistry-based products across its operating segments, with revenue largely tied to sales volumes and market pricing for its products, plus value-added margins from specialty formulations. 1) Agriculture-related sales (fertilizers and specialty plant nutrition): ICL sells potash-based fertilizers and specialty plant nutrition products to growers, distributors, and agricultural input channels. Revenue is generated from (a) commodity and standard fertilizer sales (where earnings are influenced by global fertilizer supply/demand and potash pricing) and (b) higher value-added specialty fertilizers and plant nutrition solutions (formulated or enhanced-efficiency products) that typically command higher margins due to differentiated performance characteristics and technical service support. 2) Industrial and food-related specialty materials (phosphates and other specialty ingredients): ICL sells phosphate-based and other specialty products used by industrial customers and, where applicable, food-related applications. Revenue is generated through supply agreements and ongoing customer purchasing in end markets such as industrial processing and specialty ingredients. Profitability depends on product mix (specialty vs. more standardized grades), contract terms, and input costs (including raw materials and energy). 3) Industrial specialties and bromine-based products: ICL produces bromine and bromine-based compounds and sells them into industrial applications. Revenue depends on demand from industrial end markets and the company’s ability to convert bromine into higher value derivatives and formulated solutions. Earnings are influenced by bromine market conditions, product differentiation, and the breadth of downstream specialty offerings. 4) Integrated resource-to-specialty model and additional earnings drivers: ICL’s upstream access to key minerals (including potash, phosphate, and bromine resources) supports its downstream businesses by providing feedstock for processed and specialty products. The company’s earnings are also affected by factors such as global commodity cycles (notably fertilizer pricing), customer demand in agriculture and industrial end markets, energy and logistics costs, and currency movements. Specific significant partnerships or customer arrangements are not available from the provided context; null.

Icl Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed: the balance sheet is reasonably supported (moderate leverage and growing equity), but profitability has reset materially since 2022 and 2025 free cash flow fell sharply, reducing near-term financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2021–2022, then declines in 2023–2024, followed by a modest rebound in 2025. Profitability peaked in 2022 and has compressed materially since—net income fell from $2.16B (2022) to $226M (2025) and operating profit also trended down. On the positive side, the company remains profitable with solid gross profit dollars, but the post-2022 margin and earnings reset lowers the quality and stability of the income profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the industry: debt-to-equity was moderate in 2023–2024 (roughly 0.40–0.47), and equity has grown over time (about $3.93B in 2020 to $5.98B in 2025). Total debt rose in 2025 versus 2024, which is a negative trend alongside lower earnings power. Overall, the balance sheet is reasonably supported by a large equity base and sizable assets, but the recent debt uptick and lower profitability reduce financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened meaningfully in 2025: operating cash flow declined to $954M from $1.36B in 2024, and free cash flow dropped sharply to $130M (down ~59% year over year). While the business produced strong cash flow in prior years (notably 2022–2024), the recent compression suggests higher reinvestment needs and/or weaker underlying cash earnings. The company is still generating positive operating and free cash flow, but the downshift in free cash flow reduces near-term financial optionality.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.15B	6.84B	7.54B	10.02B	6.96B
Gross Profit	2.19B	2.26B	2.67B	5.03B	2.61B
EBITDA	1.32B	1.38B	1.67B	4.04B	1.72B
Net Income	226.00M	407.00M	647.00M	2.16B	783.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.41B	11.32B	11.63B	11.75B	11.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	496.00M	442.00M	592.00M	508.00M	564.00M
Total Debt	2.76B	2.29B	2.69B	2.82B	3.01B
Total Liabilities	6.17B	5.33B	5.59B	6.04B	6.34B
Stockholders Equity	5.98B	5.72B	5.77B	5.46B	4.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	130.00M	650.00M	815.00M	1.38B	454.00M
Operating Cash Flow	954.00M	1.36B	1.59B	2.13B	1.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-930.00M	-711.00M	-863.00M	-747.00M	-579.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-78.00M	-724.00M	-712.00M	-1.42B	-244.00M

Icl Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 5.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.14, below the 50-day MA of 5.33, and below the 200-day MA of 5.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ICL.

Icl Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	76 Outperform	$19.47B	8.62	29.95%	2.56%	12.59%	31.40%
IPI	73 Outperform	$536.95M	-212.04	2.30%	―	8.88%	-349.99%
MOS	68 Neutral	$8.82B	14.14	9.96%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
UAN	67 Neutral	$1.40B	10.98	32.82%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	59 Neutral	$6.80B	32.61	3.77%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
FMC	49 Neutral	$1.82B	-0.78	-61.24%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Icl Corporate Events

ICL Details March 2026 $60 Million Dividend Terms and Tax Treatment

ICL Group Ltd. reported a supplemental update on March 9, 2026, specifying the details of a previously announced approximately $60 million dividend distribution from earnings. The company set the dividend at $0.04650 per share for payments in U.S. dollars and ILS 0.1448475 per share for shekel payments, based on the prevailing Bank of Israel exchange rate.

The dividend, linked to the company’s February 18, 2026 announcement, will be paid on March 25, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 10, 2026, with payments only to registered holders entitled to at least $2. ICL also outlined a split withholding-tax structure for Israeli and foreign shareholders, underscoring the importance of tax treatment for investors and providing guidance for potential tax refunds, highlighting the administrative and cash-return implications of the payout for its global shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.

ICL Posts Higher 2025 Sales, Takes Strategic Charges as It Refocuses on Specialty Growth

On February 18, 2026, ICL reported that fourth-quarter 2025 sales rose 6% year on year to $1.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 10% to $380 million, even as reported operating income swung to a loss due to $239 million in unusual charges tied to strategic changes and a water-fee provision. These charges reflected the discontinuation of LFP battery materials projects in St. Louis and Spain, R&D efficiency moves in Israel, and an impairment at its U.K. assets.

For full-year 2025, sales grew 5% to $7.15 billion and adjusted EBITDA edged up to $1.49 billion, while reported earnings declined on the back of the extraordinary items and net income fell to $226 million. The company advanced a portfolio shift by acquiring Bartek Ingredients, initiating a review and possible divestment of its Boulby operations in the U.K., and sharpening capital allocation toward its specialty crop nutrition and specialty food solutions growth engines, while guiding 2026 adjusted EBITDA to a range of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion and maintaining potash volumes of 4.5 to 4.7 million tons.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.

ICL Group Declares $60 Million Cash Dividend for March 2026 Payout

On February 17, 2026, ICL Group Ltd.’s board of directors approved a cash dividend of $0.04650 per share, totaling about $60 million, with some shareholders to receive payment in New Israeli Shekels based on the Bank of Israel’s representative exchange rate on March 9, 2026. The dividend, which is subject to minimum entitlement of $2 per shareholder, carries a record date of March 10, 2026 and a payment date of March 25, 2026, and will be subject to differentiated Israeli withholding tax rates for resident and foreign investors, underscoring the company’s ongoing capital return policy and its implications for both local and international shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.

ICL Group Files Q4 2025 Update, Sharpens Focus on Potash, Phosphate and Portfolio Optimization

On February 18, 2026, ICL Group filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. SEC, furnishing its fourth-quarter 2025 investor presentation and incorporating this report by reference into its existing Form S-8 registration statement and its Israeli shelf prospectus dated September 19, 2025. The filing, signed by the CFO and chief compliance officer, highlights a strategic focus on optimization and efficiency, including maximizing potash and phosphate output under a newly signed concession agreement, maintaining bromine market leadership, discontinuing an LFP project, initiating the sale of the Boulby operation and adjusting its cost structure alongside growth moves such as acquiring Lavie Bio, with implications for portfolio streamlining and capital allocation priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.

ICL Group Seals Binding Agreement With Israel on $2.54 Billion Dead Sea Concession Asset Transfer

On January 27, 2026, ICL Group and its Dead Sea subsidiaries signed a detailed and binding agreement with the State of Israel governing the transfer and valuation of the assets used under the Dead Sea concession, which is scheduled to expire on March 31, 2030. The accord implements principles from a November 5, 2025 memorandum of understanding and sets out that all fixed and certain intangible assets required for the concession’s operation will be transferred in fit and operational condition to the state or to the future concession holder at the end of the current term, with pre‑expiry third‑party claims remaining with ICL’s Dead Sea companies and post‑expiry claims shifting to the state or the new operator. In return, the state will pay ICL a total of $2.54 billion plus reimbursement of qualifying salt-harvesting investments made from January 1, 2025, subject to a new investment and maintenance regime that obliges the Dead Sea companies to maintain multi‑year and annual minimum spending levels, with upward or downward adjustments to the consideration based on actual investment. The payment structure provides for 95% of the adjusted consideration to be paid on April 1, 2030 and the remaining 5% on September 1, 2030, with further reimbursement tied to completion of the permanent salt-harvesting solution. ICL says the agreement removes significant uncertainty around the 2030 concession expiry and the future competitive tender, clarifies the mechanism and timing of asset compensation, and should not have a material impact on its financial results, while positioning the company to plan its operations and potentially bid for the future concession if the terms prove economically and regulatorily attractive.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.

ICL Signs 2026 Potash Supply Contracts With Chinese Customers

On December 23, 2025, ICL Group Ltd. reported that, under its 2025–2027 framework arrangements with Chinese customers, it has signed contracts to deliver 750,000 metric tons of potash to China during 2026, with a mutual option for an additional 330,000 metric tons, priced in line with recent Chinese contract settlements at $348 per ton CIFFO. The new agreements reinforce ICL’s long-term sales visibility in one of its core fertilizer markets and underscore the company’s ongoing role as a key supplier to China’s agricultural sector within its existing multi‑year commercial framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.

ICL Group Files December 2025 Investor Presentation Highlighting Growth in Crop Nutrition and Functional Ingredients

On a Form 6-K for December 2025, ICL Group Ltd. furnished an investor presentation to provide all shareholders equal access to materials it plans to use in upcoming investor meetings. The presentation, accompanied by extensive legal and forward-looking disclaimers, underscores ICL’s strategic emphasis on profitable growth engines in specialty crop nutrition and functional food ingredients, highlighting market estimates that point to mid‑single‑digit compound annual growth and more than 40% growth potential in specialty crop nutrition. It also details the company’s strong geographic presence, particularly in North America, Latin America (mainly Brazil), Europe and Asia-Pacific, reinforcing ICL’s view that it is well positioned to capture a significant share of a $35 billion addressable market in functional ingredients, an area seen as important for its long‑term growth and competitive positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (ICL) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Icl stock, see the ICL Stock Forecast page.