Herc Holdings (HRI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.35B
• Dividend Yield: 1.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 667.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4644.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 19.40%
• EPS Growth: -120.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.07
• Shares Outstanding: 33,370,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 650,946
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 667,990
• PEG Ratio: -46.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -34.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.32
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.19
• 1Y Price Target: $173.60
• Price Target Upside: 72.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.80B

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $99.00 ▼(-1.41% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is held back primarily by the sharp deterioration shown in the latest annual financial snapshot (weaker earnings/margins and reduced cash-flow visibility) and very weak technicals (price far below major moving averages with bearish momentum). Valuation is also a major negative due to an extremely high P/E. Offsetting these is a relatively positive earnings-call outlook, with 2026 growth/EBITDA/free-cash-flow guidance and synergy-driven improvement plans, though leverage and execution risks remain meaningful.

Positive Factors

Acquisition and Integration Scale

The H&E acquisition and rapid integration (80% branch optimization, tech stack consolidation, expanded field regions) create durable scale, broader geographic coverage and cross‑sell channels. These structural gains support sustained revenue synergies and cost leverage as branches and sales teams normalize over multiple years.

Specialty & Mega‑project Exposure

Expansion to ~200 specialty locations and double‑digit specialty revenue demonstrate a structural shift toward higher‑value products and project work. Persistent exposure to mega projects (10%–15% share wins) positions the company to capture durable demand from infrastructure, renewables and data center buildouts, improving long‑term revenue mix.

Free Cash Flow Generation

Material free cash flow in 2025 provides a structural funding source to support fleet reinvestment, deleveraging and synergy capture. Consistent FCF capacity underpins the company’s ability to execute capex plans, recycle fleet through disposals and reduce pro‑forma leverage over the next 2–3 years if operational targets hold.

Negative Factors

Elevated Pro‑forma Leverage

Near‑term leverage approaching 4x after the acquisition materially increases refinancing and covenant risk for a cyclical rental operator. A heavy debt burden reduces financial flexibility to absorb local demand shocks and requires sustained margin/cash‑flow improvement to reach target 2x–3x by end‑2027.

Earnings & Margin Deterioration

A sharp decline in 2025 profitability undermines historical earnings stability and weakens return metrics. Lower margins and near‑breakeven net income reduce internal funding capacity, increase reliance on disposals or external financing, and raise execution risk for the multi‑year integration plan.

Used Fleet Sales & Mix Pressure

Higher used‑asset sales and an acquired business mix with lower rental margins exert structural pressure on REBITDA margins. If fleet disposition cycles and specialty mix shifts persist, recurring profitability could be suppressed, making margin recovery reliant on successful specialty rollouts and sustained pricing discipline.

Herc Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Herc Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company also provides ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it offers various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, food and beverage, and refineries and petrochemical industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, hospitality, healthcare, recreation, entertainment production, and special event management customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was founded in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Herc Holdings makes money primarily by renting equipment to customers for defined time periods and charging rental rates that vary by equipment type, rental duration, and service requirements. The largest revenue stream is equipment rental revenue from its general rental fleet and specialty equipment, where the company earns returns by purchasing and maintaining a fleet, deploying it across branches, and maximizing utilization while managing pricing and fleet mix. In addition to rental charges, the company generates revenue from related services and fees that commonly accompany rentals, such as delivery and pickup/transportation, fuel and consumables, damage waivers or similar protection products (where offered), and other jobsite support services tied to the rental transaction. The company also monetizes fleet management through the sale of used equipment (fleet disposition), generating proceeds and gains/losses that support fleet refresh and capital recycling. Key factors influencing earnings include fleet utilization, rental rate discipline, mix between higher-yield specialty products versus general rental, branch footprint and customer penetration, operating efficiency (maintenance and logistics), and capital intensity (fleet purchases funded through operating cash flow and financing).

Herc Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong growth and solid profitability through 2024, but the latest 2025 annual snapshot shows an abrupt earnings and margin deterioration (near-breakeven net income, EBITDA margin ~5%). Cash flow visibility is also pressured by 2025 cash flow line items reported as zero and historically volatile/often negative free cash flow, while leverage has been meaningfully elevated in prior years.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly from 2021–2024 (including ~20% in 2023), and profitability through 2024 was solid with operating profitability around the low‑20% range and net margins near ~6–12%. However, the latest 2025 annual figures show an abrupt collapse in earnings (net income near breakeven and a much lower EBITDA margin ~5%), which materially weakens the consistency and quality of the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage was high in 2021–2024 (debt-to-equity roughly ~2.5–3.6x), which is a meaningful risk for a cyclical rental/leasing business. The 2025 annual balance sheet shows sharply lower reported debt-to-equity (~0.8x) and higher equity, but returns on equity also fell to near zero alongside the earnings drop—suggesting the balance sheet looks improved while profitability deteriorated.

Cash Flow

Operating cash generation was strong in 2021–2024 and generally exceeded net income by a wide margin, supporting earnings quality. That said, free cash flow has been volatile and often negative (notably 2022–2023), and even in 2024 free cash flow was only marginally positive relative to earnings. The 2025 annual cash flow line items are reported as zero with free cash flow down -100%, which raises data-quality/visibility concerns and further pressures the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.38B	3.57B	3.28B	2.74B	2.07B
Gross Profit	1.23B	1.35B	1.22B	1.06B	756.00M
EBITDA	1.75B	870.00M	775.00M	654.00M	446.00M
Net Income	1.00M	211.00M	347.00M	330.00M	224.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.78B	7.88B	7.06B	5.96B	4.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.00M	83.00M	71.00M	53.50M	35.10M
Total Debt	11.16B	5.07B	4.48B	3.62B	2.47B
Total Liabilities	11.83B	6.48B	5.79B	4.85B	3.51B
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	1.40B	1.27B	1.11B	976.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-135.00M	16.00M	-390.00M	-355.00M	102.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	1.23B	1.09B	917.00M	743.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.83B	-1.51B	-1.58B	-1.68B	-960.00M
Financing Cash Flow	3.81B	299.00M	512.00M	785.00M	220.00M

Herc Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 100.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 100.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.67, below the 50-day MA of 146.65, and below the 200-day MA of 134.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.98 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.90 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRI.

Herc Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URI	71 Outperform	$44.76B	20.90	27.87%	0.88%	6.73%	1.45%
MGRC	70 Outperform	$2.59B	12.96	13.21%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
R	61 Neutral	$7.56B	16.03	16.36%	1.75%	1.68%	9.91%
WSC	51 Neutral	$3.08B	-64.81	-5.35%	1.44%	-3.64%	867.62%
HRI	47 Neutral	$3.35B	4,644.29	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%
CAR	43 Neutral	$3.52B	-5.08	32.05%	―	-1.22%	-639.34%

Herc Holdings Corporate Events

Herc Holdings Announces Upcoming Board Transition Without Dispute

On January 28, 2026, Herc Holdings Inc. announced that board member John M. Engquist informed the company he would not stand for re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. The company stated that Engquist’s decision was not the result of any disagreement with Herc Holdings regarding its operations, policies, or practices, suggesting the board transition is expected to be orderly and without underlying governance dispute signals for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Hold with a $163.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.