HilleVax, Inc (HLVX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $69.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 139.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 1.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -3.00
• Shares Outstanding: 50,141,064
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 164,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 139,468
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -0.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $2.00
• Price Target Upside: 33.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

HilleVax, Inc.'s financial performance is a major concern, as ongoing losses and reliance on external financing highlight significant risk. Technical indicators reflect negative momentum, and valuation metrics are unfavorable due to the company's developmental stage. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Net Debt to Total Capital is 0%, indicating no debt burden.

Financial Performance

The company reported a cash balance of $189.3M, which was 97% above the company’s current market cap of approx. $96M.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trials

The Phase 2B NEST-IN1 trial for HIL-214 in norovirus failed to demonstrate effect across both primary and secondary endpoints, resulting in the discontinued development of HIL-214 in the infant population.

Product Development

The former infant study failed to meet its primary efficacy endpoint assessing moderate or severe acute gastroenteritis due to the GI.1 or GII.4 norovirus genotypes and resulted in no secondary endpoint benefit.

Restructuring Costs

HLVX reported 4Q OpEx of $36.1M which was +112% vs. estimated $17M, due to $20.8M in restructuring and impairment charges.

HilleVax, Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HilleVax, Inc. (HLVX) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel vaccines. The company's primary area of expertise is in the prevention of infectious diseases through innovative vaccine solutions. HilleVax leverages cutting-edge research and development to bring new vaccines from concept to market, aiming to address significant unmet medical needs across various populations.

How the Company Makes Money

HilleVax, Inc. generates revenue through the development and commercialization of vaccines. The company invests in research and development to create proprietary vaccine candidates, which, upon successful clinical trials and regulatory approval, are brought to market. Revenue is primarily derived from sales of these vaccines to healthcare providers, government agencies, and international health organizations. Additionally, HilleVax may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and institutions, which can provide milestone payments, licensing fees, and royalties based on sales. Such partnerships are crucial for expanding market reach and increasing revenue potential.

HilleVax, Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HilleVax, Inc. is a pre-revenue biotechnology company with no revenue and ongoing losses due to its R&D phase. Despite improvements in equity, the company relies heavily on external funding, reflecting high financial risk.

Income Statement

HilleVax, Inc. has consistently reported zero revenue over the years, indicating an early-stage or pre-revenue biotechnology company. The absence of gross profit and negative EBIT, EBITDA, and net income margins reflect ongoing operational losses typical of a company investing heavily in research and development without revenue streams. This lack of revenue growth presents a significant challenge in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a strong cash position, with cash and short-term investments covering total liabilities. However, the equity position was negative in earlier years, improving to positive recently, indicating better capital management. The debt-to-equity ratio is unfavorable due to historical negative equity, but improvements in equity suggest financial stabilization. The equity ratio remains low, indicating high leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flows are consistently negative, reflecting the cash burn typical of biotech firms in developmental stages. Free cash flow is also negative, and the lack of revenue makes it challenging to evaluate cash flow efficiency. Positive financing cash flows suggest reliance on external funding to sustain operations.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.86M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
638.00K	0.00	-2.16M	-2.25M	-3.00K	0.00
	EBIT
-135.87M	-155.29M	-133.34M	-65.11M	-53.43M	-1.29M
	EBITDA
-143.17M	-155.29M	-132.47M	-65.11M	-99.56M	-2.07M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-150.28M	-147.27M	-123.57M	-257.00M	-85.03M	-2.13M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
457.00K	171.43M	303.48M	279.40M	124.57M	457.00K
	Total Assets
505.00K	192.69M	344.43M	317.21M	127.16M	505.00K
	Total Debt
3.02M	24.51M	51.19M	36.40M	158.46M	3.02M
	Net Debt
2.57M	-129.95M	-165.49M	-243.00M	33.90M	2.57M
	Total Liabilities
3.28M	38.20M	78.91M	49.98M	227.92M	3.28M
	Stockholders Equity
-2.77M	154.49M	265.52M	267.23M	-100.76M	-2.77M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-128.68M	-109.31M	-97.53M	-68.50M	-10.10M	-1.27M
	Operating Cash Flow
-112.21M	-108.79M	-86.78M	-61.99M	-7.29M	-1.27M
	Investing Cash Flow
18.98M	58.40M	-94.64M	-6.51M	-2.81M	0.00
	Financing Cash Flow
-11.51M	-11.82M	118.70M	224.97M	134.21M	1.33M

HilleVax, Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLVX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.66, below the 50-day MA of 1.78, and below the 200-day MA of 2.60, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 17.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLVX.

HilleVax, Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BNTX	54 Neutral	$21.67B	―	-3.38%	―	-27.64%	-172.62%
VIR	51 Neutral	$847.55M	―	-38.09%	―	-13.90%	16.56%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.86B	1.11	-50.22%	2.47%	16.71%	1.53%
MRNA	48 Neutral	$10.48B	―	-28.77%	―	-52.75%	25.00%
NVAX	39 Underperform	$965.07M	―	30.06%	―	-30.65%	77.62%
HLVX	28 Underperform	$69.45M	―	-70.13%	―	―	1.27%
VAXX	26 Underperform	$7.03M	―	-0.42%	―	―	―

HilleVax, Inc Corporate Events

HilleVax, Inc. Announces Workforce Reduction and Leadership Changes

HilleVax, Inc. is reducing its workforce by 70% to cut costs while continuing to pursue the development of its norovirus vaccine and other strategic opportunities. This move is expected to incur costs of $6.1 million primarily in severance and related expenses, with major recognition of these charges in Q4 2024. Additionally, key executives are transitioning to consultancy roles or other positions within the company, with severance and other benefits outlined.