Hellenic Telecom Organization SA (HLTOY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.92B
• Dividend Yield: 4.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 26.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: 0.74%
• EPS Growth: 5.97%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,831
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 807,706,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26
• PEG Ratio: -0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.49
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.11B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(11.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/18/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (strong cash generation and improving leverage) and a generally positive outlook from management. These are tempered by recent top-line pressure, capital intensity/one-off support to near-term FCF, and a valuation that looks demanding despite a strong dividend.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

OTE’s operating cash flow consistency (roughly €1.1–1.3bn annually) and re-accelerating free cash flow (FCF up ~12.7% in 2025; FY2025 FCF €543m) create durable funding for network investment and shareholder returns. This sustained cash conversion supports capex, dividends and buybacks while preserving financial flexibility over the medium term.

Accelerating FTTH rollout

Record FTTH net adds and a target of 2.4m homes passed by 2026 strengthen OTE’s fixed‑broadband competitive position. Greater FTTH penetration (retail FTTH 24% of broadband) improves ARPU potential, lowers churn, and builds a durable high‑quality access base that supports monetization and long‑term margin stability versus legacy copper.

Mobile leadership & 5G scale

Robust postpaid growth, rising 5G device penetration and near‑nationwide 5G coverage underpin durable service revenue growth and upsell opportunities. Higher data consumption (+30% YoY) and a growing postpaid mix improve recurring revenue quality and create structural advantages for ARPU expansion and customer retention over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

2025 revenue decline

A ~6.8% revenue decline in 2025 signals meaningful top‑line pressure in a maturing market. Persistent revenue weakness would compress operating leverage, reduce headroom for discretionary investment or shareholder returns, and increase reliance on cost or one‑off measures to sustain margins and FCF in coming quarters.

High, sustained capex

Sustained ~€600m annual capex for FTTH and 5G SA rollout maintains long‑term competitiveness but reduces incremental free cash flow available for other uses. If revenue growth softens or one‑offs fade, ongoing capital intensity could constrain flexibility for further buybacks, higher dividends, or accelerated deleveraging.

Structural wholesale revenue loss

Phasing out low‑margin international wholesale will structurally reduce reported revenues by ~€170m in 2026 and ~€130m in 2027. While management flags limited EBITDA impact, the loss narrows scale and revenue diversification, forcing greater dependence on retail and ICT growth to replace topline and preserve long‑term growth momentum.

Hellenic Telecom Organization SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hellenic Telecommunications Organization S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications and related services to businesses and individuals primarily in Greece and Romania. It operates through OTE, COSMOTE Group, and Other segments. The company offers fixed-line, Internet access, ICT, and TV production services; and international carrier services. It also provides mobile and satellite telecommunication, electronic money, e-commerce, financing, consultancy and security, real estate, insurance brokerage, training, wholesale telephony, retail, marketing, overdue accounts management, wholesale broadband, and infrastructure services. The company was incorporated in 1949 and is based in Athens, Greece.

How the Company Makes Money

OTE primarily makes money by selling recurring subscription and usage-based telecommunications services, complemented by equipment sales and ICT/system-integration work for business customers. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Mobile services: monthly plans and prepaid top-ups for voice, SMS, and data; additional revenue from roaming, value-added services, and (where applicable) wholesale access related to mobile networks. (2) Fixed-line and broadband: retail subscriptions for fixed telephony and home/business internet (DSL/fiber where available), including bundled “triple/quad-play” packages that combine fixed voice, broadband, mobile, and TV to reduce churn and increase average revenue per user. (3) Pay-TV and content: subscription fees for television services and content packages, sometimes sold standalone but often bundled with broadband. (4) Wholesale and interconnect: fees from other operators for termination, transit, leased lines, backhaul, and access to certain network infrastructure/services; these revenues depend on regulation, market demand, and network scale. (5) ICT and enterprise services: project-based and recurring managed services for enterprises and the public sector (e.g., connectivity, cloud/hosting, cybersecurity, unified communications, and network integration), with revenue driven by contracts, service-level agreements, and long-term customer relationships. (6) Handsets and devices: sales of smartphones, routers, and other customer-premises equipment through retail channels, typically with lower margins but supporting service subscriptions. Significant factors influencing earnings include network investment (fiber and 4G/5G) that enables higher-speed premium tiers, customer bundling strategies, regulatory conditions affecting wholesale pricing and interconnect, competitive dynamics in Greek telecom, and partnerships/content licensing for TV offerings and roaming relationships with international carriers. If more granular segment revenue breakdowns or specific partner names are required, they are null without current source data.

Hellenic Telecom Organization SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid for a telecom: strong and consistent operating/free cash flow and improving leverage support resilience. Offsetting this, revenue declined in 2025 and profitability/growth appear more mature and somewhat uneven.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid for a telecom, with strong operating and EBITDA profitability in recent annual periods (e.g., 2024 EBITDA margin ~39.5% and net margin ~13.3%). However, growth has turned uneven: revenue expanded modestly from 2021–2024 but declined in 2025 (annual revenue down ~6.8%), and earnings have been somewhat volatile (net income peaked in 2021/2023, softened in 2022, and stayed roughly flat in 2024–2025). Overall, this is a healthy but maturing earnings profile with recent top-line pressure.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving, with total debt trending down from 2020 to 2025 and debt-to-equity moving from higher levels in 2020–2022 toward a more moderate level by 2024 (~0.56). Equity has grown over time (notably higher in 2024–2025 versus 2022–2023), supporting balance-sheet resilience. The key watch item is that the business still carries meaningful debt typical of the sector, so sustained revenue weakness could reduce flexibility, but current capitalization appears solid.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow has been consistently high and stable (roughly 1.1–1.3B annually), and free cash flow remains strongly positive across all years provided. While free cash flow declined in 2023–2024 versus 2022, it re-accelerated in 2025 (free cash flow up ~12.7% year over year). A softer point is that free cash flow covers only about half of net income in the years shown (mid-40% to low-50% range), indicating earnings-to-cash conversion is good but not exceptional.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.33B	3.59B	3.47B	3.46B	3.37B
Gross Profit	1.70B	2.76B	2.65B	2.65B	2.60B
EBITDA	1.37B	1.42B	1.40B	1.39B	1.43B
Net Income	481.32M	478.80M	531.70M	388.60M	557.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.10B	5.00B	4.94B	5.00B	5.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	527.68M	472.90M	469.50M	594.90M	636.30M
Total Debt	1.06B	1.10B	1.09B	1.31B	1.41B
Total Liabilities	2.99B	3.03B	2.99B	3.15B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	2.11B	1.96B	1.94B	1.85B	1.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	551.73M	502.50M	573.70M	677.70M	638.20M
Operating Cash Flow	1.14B	1.10B	1.20B	1.32B	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-557.97M	-584.10M	-604.80M	-638.50M	-435.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-528.58M	-515.30M	-716.30M	-721.40M	-746.50M

Hellenic Telecom Organization SA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLTOY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.97, above the 50-day MA of 9.82, and above the 200-day MA of 9.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLTOY.

Hellenic Telecom Organization SA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TKC	72 Outperform	$5.47B	11.51	7.24%	5.57%	19.02%	9.26%
HLTOY	70 Outperform	$7.92B	27.86	27.57%	4.81%	0.74%	5.97%
VIV	70 Outperform	$25.37B	17.32	9.03%	5.03%	-3.16%	4.70%
KT	63 Neutral	$9.72B	12.98	10.06%	4.13%	0.63%	-21.51%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
SKM	57 Neutral	$11.31B	27.39	3.37%	5.02%	-8.16%	-52.52%