Grace Wine Holdings Limited (8146) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$512.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 114.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -18.68%
• EPS Growth: -3305.88%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 174
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 813,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 80,000
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 114,333
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.09
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$0.74 ▲(105.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/16/26

The score is mainly weighed down by weak financial performance—sharp revenue decline, negative margins, and negative operating cash flow—despite a relatively stable, low-leverage balance sheet. Technicals show strong recent upside versus moving averages, but momentum is overextended (high RSI/Stoch), and valuation is constrained by loss-making earnings (negative P/E) with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Low leverage and a solid asset base give the company durable financial resilience. This balance-sheet strength improves access to credit, supports capital spending or restructuring, and provides a buffer while operating performance and cash flows recover, preserving solvency risk.

Vertical Integration (Own Vineyards)

Owning vineyards creates long-term control over grape supply, quality and production costs. Vertical integration supports consistent product standards, protects gross margins from input market swings, and underpins brand positioning for premium offerings over multiple years.

Premium Brand & Diversified Distribution

A premium product mix plus multi-channel distribution and export exposure reduces single-market concentration and supports pricing power. Durable relationships with distributors and hospitality channels aid steady demand and long-term market access beyond short-term volatility.

Negative Factors

Steep Revenue Decline

A near-50% revenue drop signals structural demand or execution issues that impair scale economics. Reduced topline shrinks gross margin absorption, limits reinvestment capacity, and raises the bar for management to restore sustainable growth without dilutive financing.

Loss-making Operations

Persistent negative operating and profitability metrics suggest the core business is not generating sufficient returns. If margins remain negative, equity erosion and constrained reinvestment follow, forcing strategic resets, cost cuts, or portfolio changes to restore long-term viability.

Weak Cash Generation

Negative operating cash flow and no free cash flow indicate ongoing liquidity pressure. This undermines the firm's ability to fund vineyard upkeep, marketing and distribution, and may require asset sales, higher borrowing or equity issuance, limiting strategic flexibility over months.

Grace Wine Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grace Wine Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production and distribution of wine and other alcoholic products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Production of Wines and Production of Spirits. The company also plants vine and sells wine grapes; and produces spirits. It offers wine primarily under the Grace Vineyard brand. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong. Grace Wine Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Macmillan Equity Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

Grace Wine Holdings Limited generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company makes money by selling its wines directly to consumers and through various distribution channels, including restaurants, hotels, and retail outlets. The company also engages in export activities, selling its products to international markets, which contributes significantly to its revenue. Additionally, Grace Wine benefits from partnerships with distributors and retailers that enhance its market reach. The company's focus on quality and branding, along with its participation in wine exhibitions and competitions, helps to elevate its brand recognition and drive sales.

Grace Wine Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak: revenue fell sharply (down 46.8% from 2023 to 2024), profitability deteriorated with negative net/EBIT/EBITDA margins, and operating cash flow was negative with no free cash flow. The balance sheet is comparatively steadier with low leverage, but it does not offset earnings and cash flow pressure.

Income Statement

The company experienced a significant decline in revenue from 2023 to 2024, with a revenue drop of 46.8%. Gross profit margin also decreased, and the net profit margin turned negative, indicating profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins were negative in 2024, showing operational difficulties. Overall, the income statement reflects a concerning financial performance in the latest year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet exhibits a stable equity base with a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management. However, the equity ratio decreased slightly, reflecting a reduction in stockholders' equity. The company maintains a solid asset base, which supports its financial stability despite recent challenges.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows volatility, with a negative operating cash flow in 2024 and no free cash flow generated. This indicates potential liquidity issues and challenges in sustaining operational cash needs. The absence of positive cash flow growth is a concern for the company's financial health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.74M	34.55M	64.98M	62.12M	84.69M	60.22M
Gross Profit	25.18M	26.30M	47.65M	36.46M	45.77M	28.54M
EBITDA	-1.97M	-1.15M	21.21M	8.95M	19.47M	9.63M
Net Income	-40.23M	-41.02M	10.22M	-598.00K	7.74M	-562.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	199.69M	318.56M	331.20M	330.83M	309.33M	278.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.46M	34.49M	43.31M	75.05M	68.45M	90.84M
Total Debt	2.62M	65.05M	47.70M	27.93M	967.00K	1.95M
Total Liabilities	28.82M	92.43M	64.38M	74.56M	49.22M	26.43M
Stockholders Equity	89.72M	226.13M	266.82M	256.27M	260.10M	252.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-24.49M	-35.15M	-39.57M	-15.43M	-22.02M	-1.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.09M	-17.20M	-9.43M	645.00K	11.22M	9.58M
Investing Cash Flow	84.24M	-17.90M	-30.83M	-15.81M	-32.92M	-10.52M
Financing Cash Flow	-89.48M	27.54M	8.99M	20.74M	-1.10M	-908.00K

Grace Wine Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:8146, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.69, below the 50-day MA of 0.67, and above the 200-day MA of 0.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:8146.

Grace Wine Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8509	75 Outperform	HK$252.00M	7.57	13.15%	―	15.66%	-1.25%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
0828	54 Neutral	HK$333.79M	13.36	7.35%	1.30%	-4.14%	-21.15%
0060	50 Neutral	HK$130.38M	-4.28	-3.76%	―	-13.76%	-7.06%
8057	47 Neutral	HK$64.18M	-1.39	―	―	3.35%	17.48%
8146	45 Neutral	HK$512.19M	-14.99	-23.19%	―	-18.68%	-3305.88%
0389	40 Underperform	HK$99.52M	458.76	-65.18%	―	―	―