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Greentown China Holdings
(3900)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
HK$6.50
▼(-26.97% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/28/26
The score is primarily constrained by deteriorating profitability, high and rising leverage, and a sharp 2025 cash-flow reversal. Technicals are also weak with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is only partially supported by a moderate dividend yield given the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue streams (development, management, rental)
A multi-pronged business model (development sales, lower-capital project management fees, and rental/operating income) provides structural diversification of cash flows. Over 2–6 months this reduces reliance on single-project sales timing and supports steadier fee and rental income versus pure developers.
Negative Factors
Severe margin compression and near-zero net margin
Material margin deterioration weakens the company's ability to absorb cost increases, fund reinvestment, and maintain profitability through cyclical downturns. Near-zero net margins reduce retained earnings and limit ability to rebuild equity or weather further sector stress over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue streams (development, management, rental)
A multi-pronged business model (development sales, lower-capital project management fees, and rental/operating income) provides structural diversification of cash flows. Over 2–6 months this reduces reliance on single-project sales timing and supports steadier fee and rental income versus pure developers.
Read all positive factors
Greentown China Holdings (3900) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$17.17B
Dividend Yield3.94%
Average Volume (3M)10.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)208.7
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth-2.02%
EPS Growth-95.76%
CountryHK
Employees8,765
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding2,539,598,600
10 Day Avg. Volume10,242,332
30 Day Avg. Volume10,444,293
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.84
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio23.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$12.14Price Target Upside36.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$133.68B
Greentown China Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greentown China Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company with a primary focus on real estate development and associated ventures across mainland China. Its operations are strategically divided into distinct segments: Property Dev...
How the Company Makes Money
Greentown China makes money mainly through (1) property development sales: it develops real estate projects and recognizes revenue from selling completed (or qualifying) residential and mixed-use properties; this typically represents the largest r...
Greentown China Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 154.97B | 158.55B | 131.38B | 127.15B | 100.24B |
| Gross Profit | 18.47B | 20.23B | 17.07B | 22.02B | 18.17B |
| EBITDA | 9.92B | 11.98B | 13.42B | 14.18B | 15.29B |
| Net Income | 70.99M | 1.60B | 3.12B | 2.76B | 4.47B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 450.05B | 507.78B | 535.54B | 535.08B | 521.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.26B | 68.86B | 69.80B | 66.44B | 68.45B |
| Total Debt | 133.91B | 137.70B | 146.72B | 137.88B | 124.30B |
| Total Liabilities | 344.29B | 394.30B | 421.60B | 423.66B | 413.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 35.20B | 36.33B | 36.13B | 37.55B | 45.44B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 807.10M | 28.47B | 22.61B | 14.20B | 5.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 28.83B | 22.97B | 14.59B | 5.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.73B | -14.42B | -19.11B | -20.87B | -30.72B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.78B | -15.17B | -423.13M | 4.18B | 33.82B |
Greentown China Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
8.90
Price Trends
8.92
Negative
9.53
Negative
9.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.74
Positive
15.29
Positive
6.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3900, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.75, below the 50-day MA of 8.92, and below the 200-day MA of 9.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 15.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:3900.
Greentown China Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | HK$10.01B | -3.72 | -2.88% | ― | ― | ― | |
59 Neutral | HK$26.18B | 27.75 | 0.90% | 6.48% | 2.27% | 16.09% | |
46 Neutral | HK$41.39B | 32.31 | 0.62% | 3.96% | -23.93% | -90.51% | |
44 Neutral | HK$17.17B | 208.74 | 0.20% | 3.94% | -2.02% | -95.76% | |
41 Neutral | HK$37.94B | -0.40 | -59.37% | ― | -28.73% | -60.86% | |
41 Neutral | HK$9.63B | 21.84 | 0.73% | ― | -40.33% | -21.72% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HK:3900
Greentown China Holdings
6.76
-2.69
-28.47%
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Hopson Development Holdings Limited
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Greentown China Holdings Corporate Events
Greentown China Wins Shareholder Backing for AGM Resolutions and Capital Mandates
Jun 29, 2026
Greentown China Holdings reported that all resolutions tabled at its latest annual general meeting were approved by shareholders via poll, including the adoption of the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025. Shareholders...
Greentown China Secures Shareholder Approval for Financial Services Framework
Jun 29, 2026
Greentown China Holdings shareholders approved the Second Financial Services Framework Agreement and related transaction caps at an extraordinary general meeting, with over 93% of votes cast in favour. The resolutions also authorized any company d...
Greentown China Assures Normal Operations Amid ICAC Probe Into Former Director
Jun 18, 2026
Greentown China Holdings said Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption executed a search warrant at its Hong Kong principal place of business on 17 June 2026. The visit relates to a corruption allegation involving a former direc...
Greentown China Calls EGM to Approve New Financial Services Framework
Jun 9, 2026
Greentown China Holdings has called an extraordinary general meeting for 29 June 2026 in Hangzhou to seek shareholder approval of a Second Financial Services Framework Agreement and its associated transaction caps. The board is also asking shareho...
Greentown China Posts RMB73.7 Billion in Unaudited Contracted Sales for First Five Months of 2026
Jun 4, 2026
Greentown China Holdings reported unaudited operating data for the first five months of 2026, highlighting continued activity in both its self-investment and project management segments. In May alone, the group sold 2,122 units with a sales area o...
Greentown China Sets 2026 AGM, Seeks Fresh Share Buyback Mandate and Auditor Change
Jun 4, 2026
Greentown China Holdings has convened its annual general meeting for 29 June 2026 in Hangzhou, where shareholders will review the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 and consider the re-election of six incumbent direct...
Greentown China Proposes Switching Auditor from EY to KPMG
May 18, 2026
Greentown China Holdings plans to replace Ernst Young as its auditor after the upcoming annual general meeting on 29 June 2026, ending a five-year engagement. The board, following a recommendation from a substantial shareholder and its audit comm...
Greentown China to Issue US$300 Million in 7% Senior Notes for Debt Refinancing
May 13, 2026
Greentown China Holdings Limited has agreed to issue US$300 million in 7.000% senior notes due 2029, with Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Guotai Junan International, J.P. Morgan, Soochow Securities (Hong Kong) and UBS acting as joint managers. The notes, off...
Greentown China Plans USD Senior Notes Issue to Refinance Debt
May 12, 2026
Greentown China Holdings plans an international issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated senior notes, offered outside the United States under Regulation S. The company intends to seek a listing of the notes on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a conf...
Greentown China Posts RMB54.9 Billion in Unaudited Contracted Sales for First Four Months of 2026
May 7, 2026
Greentown China reported unaudited operating data for the four months to 30 April 2026, showing steady sales momentum despite a challenging property market. In April alone, the group sold 1,742 self-investment units with a sales area of about 260,...
Greentown China Posts RMB38.6 Billion in Preliminary Q1 2026 Contracted Sales
Apr 9, 2026
Greentown China Holdings reported unaudited operating data for the first quarter of 2026, highlighting sales momentum in both self-investment and project management businesses. The group sold 2,840 units in March with a sales area of about 420,000...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.