Greentown China Holdings (3900) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$29.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: -1.08%
• EPS Growth: -109.20%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 8,765
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 2,539,598,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,242,332
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,444,293
• PEG Ratio: -0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$15.50
• Price Target Upside: 74.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$11.50 ▲(29.21% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid top-line growth and improving operating efficiency, offset by high leverage and uncertainty from missing recent cash flow data. Technically, the uptrend is intact but appears overextended (RSI/Stoch elevated), while valuation is mixed with a reasonable yield but an uninformative negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

A 20.68% revenue increase demonstrates the company can scale project deliveries and convert sales despite sector pressures. Durable top-line growth supports backlog monetization, strengthens negotiating position with contractors and buyers, and underpins medium-term cash flow potential.

Improving Margins

Rising gross and operating margins point to better cost controls and operational efficiency across projects. Sustained margin expansion enhances project-level cash generation, providing a structural buffer against input cost swings and improving the firm's ability to fund development and service debt.

Brand & Product Quality

A reputation for quality and design supports pricing power in premium urban segments and helps secure repeat buyers and JV partners. This structural advantage aids market share retention, reduces marketing spend per sale, and sustains long-term demand for new projects.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Very high leverage materially limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk in cyclical downturns. For a developer, this heightens vulnerability to interest rate moves and pre-sale slowdowns, constraining land acquisition capacity and increasing default risk on stretched cash flows.

Weak Net Profitability

A sub-2% net margin implies limited profit retention from revenues, reducing capacity to self-fund projects, rebuild equity, or absorb shocks. Persistently thin net profitability undermines long-term return on invested capital and increases dependency on external financing.

Cash Flow Uncertainty

Absence of recent operating cash flow and free cash flow data creates uncertainty about actual cash generation and liquidity. For a capital-intensive developer, opaque current cash flows elevate refinancing and completion risks, and weaken confidence in debt servicing capacity.

Greentown China Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greentown China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and related business in China. It operates through Property Development, Hotel Operations, Property Investment, and Project Management segments. The company develops and sells residential properties. It also offers investment and asset management; project management; technology research and development; and design and decoration services. In addition, the company operates hotels; and invests in and rents properties, as well as sells construction materials. As of December 31, 2021, its land bank comprised a total gross floor area of approximately 58.81 million square meters. Greentown China Holdings Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Greentown China Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential and commercial properties. The company typically acquires land for development, constructs buildings, and then sells the completed properties to end-users or investors. In addition to property sales, Greentown earns income from its property management services, which include maintaining and operating residential and commercial properties. The company may also engage in joint ventures and partnerships with other developers or investors to share risks and resources, further enhancing its revenue potential. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for new housing in urban areas, government policies affecting real estate, and the overall economic conditions in China.

Greentown China Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is strong (+20.68% from 2023 to 2024) and gross/operating margins improved slightly, but profitability is weak (net margin ~1.01%), leverage is high (debt-to-equity 3.79), and missing recent operating/free cash flow data increases liquidity uncertainty.

Income Statement

The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a notable increase of 20.68% from 2023 to 2024. Gross profit margin improved slightly to 12.76%, indicating good cost control. However, net profit margin declined to 1.01%, reflecting decreased profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins show slight growth, supporting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is high at 3.79, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the equity ratio of 7.15% indicates a low equity base relative to assets. Return on equity decreased to 4.39%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow was not available for the most recent period, indicating potential cash management issues. The absence of free cash flow data for 2024 prevents a complete assessment. In previous years, cash generation was positive, but the lack of recent data adds uncertainty.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	142.35B	158.55B	131.38B	127.15B	100.24B	65.78B
Gross Profit	18.28B	20.23B	17.07B	22.02B	18.17B	15.57B
EBITDA	10.14B	11.98B	13.42B	14.18B	15.29B	8.85B
Net Income	-238.57M	1.60B	3.12B	2.76B	4.47B	3.80B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	518.11B	507.78B	535.54B	535.08B	521.04B	414.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	62.46B	68.86B	69.80B	66.44B	68.45B	59.55B
Total Debt	143.53B	137.70B	146.72B	137.88B	124.30B	119.34B
Total Liabilities	398.79B	394.30B	421.60B	423.66B	413.40B	329.69B
Stockholders Equity	35.57B	36.33B	36.13B	37.55B	45.44B	52.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.25B	28.47B	22.61B	14.20B	5.36B	-3.62B
Operating Cash Flow	12.45B	28.83B	22.97B	14.59B	5.86B	-3.10B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.50B	-14.42B	-19.11B	-20.87B	-30.72B	-11.89B
Financing Cash Flow	-13.10B	-15.17B	-423.13M	4.18B	33.82B	28.07B

Greentown China Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3900, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.72, below the 50-day MA of 9.09, and below the 200-day MA of 9.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:3900.

Greentown China Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
1908	72 Outperform	HK$37.32B	5.56	20.21%	7.62%	1.26%	-0.20%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
3900	62 Neutral	HK$29.23B	-111.64	-0.67%	3.94%	-1.08%	-109.20%
0754	61 Neutral	HK$12.55B	-4.67	-2.93%	―	-11.68%	-3002.05%
0683	52 Neutral	HK$35.62B	56.18	0.61%	6.48%	76.12%	-72.44%
0817	50 Neutral	HK$24.19B	44.24	1.20%	2.46%	-8.18%	―
1030	46 Neutral	HK$19.78B	84.13	0.46%	―	-30.32%	―

Greentown China Holdings Corporate Events

Greentown China Posts RMB252 Billion in Unaudited 2025 Contracted Sales

Greentown China reported unaudited operating data for the twelve months to 31 December 2025, highlighting that its self-investment projects achieved contracted sales of approximately RMB153.4 billion on a sales area of 4.66 million square metres, of which RMB104.3 billion was attributable to the group, supplemented by additional subscription sales at year-end. Its project management business contributed a further RMB98.5 billion in sales over 7.42 million square metres for the year, bringing the group’s total sales area to about 12.08 million square metres and total contracted sales to roughly RMB251.9 billion, underscoring the importance of its asset-light management operations alongside traditional development, while the company cautioned investors that the figures are preliminary and may differ from those in forthcoming financial statements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3900) stock is a Hold with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greentown China Holdings stock, see the HK:3900 Stock Forecast page.

Greentown China Signs New Project Management Framework Deal With Major Shareholder CCCG

Greentown China Holdings has signed a new project management framework agreement with substantial shareholder China Communications Construction Group (CCCG) to consolidate and standardise ongoing project management services for CCCG, its subsidiaries and associates through its Greentown Management Group. Effective from 19 December 2025 to 31 December 2027, the agreement will govern a wide scope of services—from preparatory project work and design management to marketing, delivery, property services and administrative support—under individual contracts that must be on normal commercial terms and no more favourable than those offered to independent third parties; the transaction is classified as a continuing connected transaction under Hong Kong listing rules, requiring disclosure but exempt from circular and independent shareholder approval due to its size, underscoring Greentown’s continued operational alignment with its major shareholder while remaining within regulatory safeguards for minority investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3900) stock is a Hold with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greentown China Holdings stock, see the HK:3900 Stock Forecast page.

Greentown China Reports Strong Sales Performance for 2025

Greentown China Holdings Limited announced its unaudited operating data for the eleven months ending November 2025, reporting a total sales area of approximately 10,820,000 square meters and contracted sales of around RMB223.5 billion. The company’s performance reflects strong sales in both self-investment and project management businesses, indicating a robust market position and potential positive implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3900) stock is a Hold with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greentown China Holdings stock, see the HK:3900 Stock Forecast page.

Greentown China Reports Strong Sales Performance for 2025

Greentown China Holdings Limited reported unaudited operating data for the ten months ending October 2025, highlighting significant sales achievements. The company sold 2,587 units in October alone, with a total sales area of 360,000 sqm and monthly sales reaching RMB12.2 billion. Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, Greentown recorded a total contracted sales of RMB201.1 billion, indicating strong market performance. These figures underscore Greentown’s robust operational capabilities and market positioning, although the data is preliminary and subject to verification in future financial statements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3900) stock is a Hold with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greentown China Holdings stock, see the HK:3900 Stock Forecast page.