Greentown China Holdings Ltd. (HK:3900)
:3900
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Greentown China Holdings
(3900)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
HK$10.00
▲(12.36% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/28/26
The score is primarily constrained by deteriorating profitability, high and rising leverage, and a sharp 2025 cash-flow reversal. Technicals are also weak with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is only partially supported by a moderate dividend yield given the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Consistent top-line growth through 2025 indicates ongoing demand for Greentown's developments and supports execution scale. Over a 2–6 month horizon this durable revenue trend helps maintain project cash inflows, underpins backlog conversion and gives management room to prioritize higher-return projects.
Negative Factors
Sharp Margin Compression
Material compression of gross and net margins is a lasting profitability concern: lower margins reduce ability to fund reinvestment, absorb cost shocks or maintain returns to equity holders. Persistently weak margins will constrain ROE and limit durable value creation across property cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Consistent top-line growth through 2025 indicates ongoing demand for Greentown's developments and supports execution scale. Over a 2–6 month horizon this durable revenue trend helps maintain project cash inflows, underpins backlog conversion and gives management room to prioritize higher-return projects.
Read all positive factors
Greentown China Holdings (3900) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$22.25B
Dividend Yield3.94%
Average Volume (3M)10.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)273.8
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth-2.02%
EPS Growth-95.76%
CountryHK
Employees8,765
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding2,539,598,600
10 Day Avg. Volume10,242,332
30 Day Avg. Volume10,444,293
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.85
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio23.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$12.65Price Target Upside42.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$133.29B
Greentown China Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greentown China Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and related business in China. It operates through Property Development, Hotel Operations, Property Investment, and Project Management segments. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Greentown China makes money mainly through (1) property development sales: it develops real estate projects and recognizes revenue from selling completed (or qualifying) residential and mixed-use properties; this typically represents the largest r...
Greentown China Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 154.97B | 158.55B | 131.38B | 127.15B | 100.24B |
| Gross Profit | 18.47B | 20.23B | 17.07B | 22.02B | 18.17B |
| EBITDA | 9.92B | 11.98B | 13.42B | 14.18B | 15.29B |
| Net Income | 70.99M | 1.60B | 3.12B | 2.76B | 4.47B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 450.05B | 507.78B | 535.54B | 535.08B | 521.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.26B | 68.86B | 69.80B | 66.44B | 68.45B |
| Total Debt | 133.91B | 137.70B | 146.72B | 137.88B | 124.30B |
| Total Liabilities | 344.29B | 394.30B | 421.60B | 423.66B | 413.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 35.20B | 36.33B | 36.13B | 37.55B | 45.44B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 807.10M | 28.47B | 22.61B | 14.20B | 5.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.15B | 28.83B | 22.97B | 14.59B | 5.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.73B | -14.42B | -19.11B | -20.87B | -30.72B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.78B | -15.17B | -423.13M | 4.18B | 33.82B |
Greentown China Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
8.90
Price Trends
9.53
Negative
9.80
Negative
9.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Positive
34.86
Neutral
6.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3900, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.94, below the 50-day MA of 9.53, and below the 200-day MA of 9.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:3900.
Greentown China Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | HK$10.01B | -3.73 | -2.88% | ― | -11.68% | -3002.05% | |
59 Neutral | HK$30.54B | 31.98 | 0.90% | 6.48% | 2.27% | 16.09% | |
58 Neutral | HK$51.77B | 45.30 | 0.65% | 3.96% | -23.93% | -90.51% | |
44 Neutral | HK$22.25B | 273.82 | 0.20% | 3.94% | -2.02% | -95.76% | |
41 Neutral | HK$42.80B | -0.48 | -59.37% | ― | -28.73% | -60.86% | |
41 Neutral | HK$13.10B | 69.73 | 0.73% | ― | -40.33% | -21.72% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HK:3900
Greentown China Holdings
8.87
-0.33
-3.60%
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Hopson Development Holdings Limited
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Greentown China Holdings Corporate Events
Greentown China to Issue US$300 Million in 7% Senior Notes for Debt Refinancing
May 13, 2026
Greentown China Holdings Limited has agreed to issue US$300 million in 7.000% senior notes due 2029, with Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Guotai Junan International, J.P. Morgan, Soochow Securities (Hong Kong) and UBS acting as joint managers. The notes, off...
Greentown China Plans USD Senior Notes Issue to Refinance Debt
May 12, 2026
Greentown China Holdings plans an international issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated senior notes, offered outside the United States under Regulation S. The company intends to seek a listing of the notes on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a conf...
Greentown China Posts RMB54.9 Billion in Unaudited Contracted Sales for First Four Months of 2026
May 7, 2026
Greentown China reported unaudited operating data for the four months to 30 April 2026, showing steady sales momentum despite a challenging property market. In April alone, the group sold 1,742 self-investment units with a sales area of about 260,...
Greentown China Posts RMB38.6 Billion in Preliminary Q1 2026 Contracted Sales
Apr 9, 2026
Greentown China Holdings reported unaudited operating data for the first quarter of 2026, highlighting sales momentum in both self-investment and project management businesses. The group sold 2,840 units in March with a sales area of about 420,000...
Greentown China Boosts Liquidity and Sales Rankings Despite Profit Decline in 2025
Mar 31, 2026
Greentown China reported 2025 revenue of RMB154.97 billion, with gross profit of RMB18.47 billion and profit for the year dropping to RMB2.29 billion from RMB4.15 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell sharply to RMB70.99 million, r...
Greentown China Sets New Connected Financing Framework With CCCC Finance
Mar 31, 2026
Greentown China has entered into financial services framework agreements with CCCC Finance, under which CCCC Finance will provide deposit, loan and other financial services to the group through the end of 2027. The structure of these transactions ...
Greentown China overhauls board as long-serving CEO Guo Jiafeng retires
Mar 30, 2026
Greentown China Holdings has announced a major reshuffle of its board and senior management, driven by the retirement of long-serving chief executive and executive director Guo Jiafeng, effective 30 March 2026. Guo, who joined the company in 1999 ...
Greentown China Details Board and Committee Structure
Mar 30, 2026
Greentown China Holdings Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, led by chairman and non-executive director Liu Chengyun and supported by a mix of executive, non-executive, and independent non-executive directors. ...
Greentown China Sets March 2026 Board Meeting on 2025 Results and Dividend
Mar 18, 2026
Greentown China Holdings has scheduled a board meeting for 30 March 2026 to review and approve the annual results for the financial year ended 31 December 2025. At the same meeting, directors will also consider recommending a final dividend and ma...
Greentown China Flags 95% Profit Slump but Stresses Strong Liquidity
Mar 10, 2026
Greentown China warned that profit attributable to owners for 2025 is expected to fall by about 95% from RMB1.596 billion a year earlier, driven by a lower gross profit margin, reduced contributions from joint ventures and associates, and asset im...
Greentown China Posts RMB18.3 Billion in Two-Month Contracted Sales
Mar 5, 2026
Greentown China reported unaudited operating data for the first two months of 2026 showing resilient sales from its self-investment projects, selling 849 units and 130,000 sqm in February alone for about RMB4.6 billion at an average price of RMB34...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.