GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (3800) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$35.87B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 589.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: -44.73%
• EPS Growth: -10.66%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 9,305
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Solar
• EPS (TTM): -0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 33,216,470,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 662,714,953
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 589,138,562
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.78
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$1.77
• Price Target Upside: 68.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$1.00 ▼(-4.76% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative margins, and negative free cash flow). Technicals add further pressure with a clear downtrend (below key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is not supportive because the company is loss-making (negative P/E) and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors

Market position / scale

As a leading integrated solar company, GCL-Poly's vertical scope (polysilicon to power plants) provides durable supply‑chain control and scale advantages. This integration helps stabilize margins over cycles, supports competitive pricing, and underpins long‑term market resilience.

Diversified revenue streams

GCL-Poly earns from manufacturing and power generation, reducing reliance on a single market. Manufacturing yields scale benefits while plant generation (PPAs/grid sales) can provide recurring cash. This structural diversification cushions commodity swings and supports steady revenue mix.

Improving leverage

An improved debt-to-equity ratio signals better leverage management and greater financial flexibility to fund capex or absorb downturns. Sustained improvement enhances credit access and reduces refinancing risk, supporting medium‑term operational stability if continued.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

A near‑45% revenue drop materially erodes scale economics and market positioning. Persistently lower top line reduces capacity utilization, limits reinvestment, and can accelerate margin deterioration, making recovery harder without clear structural demand or competitive fixes.

Negative operating margins

Negative gross and operating margins indicate core manufacturing and project operations are unprofitable at current cost and pricing levels. Prolonged unprofitable operations undermine cash generation and capital allocation, forcing strategic changes or asset restructuring to restore viability.

Weak cash flow generation

Declining operating cash flow and negative free cash flow limit the company's ability to fund capex, service debt, or pursue growth without external financing. Persistent cash shortfalls can lead to asset sales or dilutive capital raises, constraining long‑term strategic options.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GCL Technology Holdings Limited manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Solar Material Business, Solar Farm Business, and New Energy Business. The Solar Material Business segment primarily manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafer products to companies operating in the solar industry. The Solar Farm Business segment operates and manages 18 MW solar farms located in the United States and 150 MW solar farms situated in South Africa; and 5 solar farms in the People's Republic of China. The New Energy Business segment develops, constructs, operates, and manages solar farms. The company was formerly known as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to GCL Technology Holdings Limited in April 2022. GCL Technology Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its solar products, including polysilicon, solar wafers, and solar cells, which are essential components in the manufacturing of solar panels. The company benefits from economies of scale and operational efficiencies, allowing it to offer competitive pricing in the market. Additionally, GCL-Poly earns income from its solar power generation projects, where it sells electricity produced from its solar plants to grid operators or through power purchase agreements (PPAs). Strategic partnerships with other energy firms and suppliers further enhance its market position and revenue potential, while the growing global demand for renewable energy solutions provides a favorable backdrop for its business operations.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company's financial performance is severely challenged. The income statement shows a significant decline in revenue and profitability, with negative gross profit margins and net income. The balance sheet indicates moderate stability but highlights profitability risks. Cash flow is a critical concern with negative free cash flow and no growth, indicating severe cash management issues.

Income Statement

The company's income statement indicates significant challenges, with a noticeable decline in revenue from 2023 to 2024. Gross profit margins have turned negative, and net income has decreased substantially. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also turned negative, indicating operational difficulties. The revenue growth rate shows a steep decline, reflecting poor market conditions or strategic issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved from previous years, suggesting better leverage management. However, the equity ratio remains relatively low, indicating potential risk. Return on equity has significantly declined due to the negative net income, raising concerns about profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights significant concerns. The operating cash flow has decreased, and free cash flow remains negative. The lack of free cash flow growth is alarming, and the cash flow to net income ratios are uncalculable due to zero values in 2024, highlighting cash management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.97B	15.10B	33.70B	35.93B	16.87B	14.62B
Gross Profit	-2.66B	-2.51B	11.69B	17.50B	5.57B	3.75B
EBITDA	-2.12B	-2.73B	8.07B	20.74B	8.46B	4.67B
Net Income	-5.05B	-4.75B	2.51B	16.03B	5.08B	-5.67B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	71.49B	74.87B	82.77B	85.56B	64.10B	80.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.99B	7.00B	8.52B	6.89B	7.13B	2.51B
Total Debt	17.68B	19.10B	15.50B	13.74B	12.60B	42.40B
Total Liabilities	30.01B	32.58B	34.45B	40.01B	31.80B	60.11B
Stockholders Equity	36.64B	37.18B	42.59B	42.68B	29.03B	16.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.27B	-7.53B	-16.07B	-8.06B	-4.10B	-568.91M
Operating Cash Flow	495.51M	-3.30B	-3.85B	7.87B	1.88B	1.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.50B	-6.04B	-10.91B	-16.55B	742.87M	2.74B
Financing Cash Flow	3.19B	7.69B	14.96B	8.40B	959.20M	-4.16B

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3800, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.10, below the 50-day MA of 1.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:3800.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
0968	55 Neutral	HK$29.36B	26.27	―	1.41%	―	―
0438	43 Neutral	HK$403.78M	-0.55	-46.12%	―	-29.43%	-752.95%
1799	42 Neutral	HK$10.41B	-2.93	-9.60%	―	-32.90%	-152.00%
0750	42 Neutral	HK$602.54M	-9.64	-1.39%	―	36.71%	8.15%
3800	41 Neutral	HK$35.87B	-5.34	-13.00%	―	-44.73%	-10.66%
0757	39 Underperform	HK$269.23M	-1.06	-24.72%	―	-43.94%	-162.54%

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Corporate Events

GCL Technology Grants HK$296 Million in Share Awards to Senior Staff and Directors

GCL Technology Holdings has granted 271,732,888 share awards at nil consideration to 40 eligible senior managers, key employees and core operational staff under its share award scheme, representing about 0.818% of its issued share capital and carrying a market value of roughly HK$296 million based on the latest closing price. A substantial portion of 227,500,000 award shares has been allocated to connected persons, including executive and independent non-executive directors, underscoring the company’s ongoing use of equity incentives to align management and key personnel with shareholder interests and to support long-term retention and performance within the group.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Sell with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.

GCL Technology Renews Connected Coal Supply Deal for 2026–2028

GCL Technology Holdings has entered into a new 2026–2028 Coal Supply Framework Agreement under which its affiliate GCL Intelligent Energy will supply coal to Jiangsu Zhongneng from 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2028, replacing the existing 2023–2025 framework when it expires at the end of 2025. Because both GCL Intelligent Energy and key board members are linked to the Zhu Family Trust, the arrangement is classified as a continuing connected transaction under Hong Kong Listing Rules, triggering reporting, announcement and annual review requirements but exempting the deal from the need for an independent shareholders’ vote; directors with ties to the trust abstained from voting to mitigate conflicts of interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Sell with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.

GCL Technology Announces Major Equity Acquisition in Subsidiary

GCL Technology Holdings Limited, a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands, has announced a significant transaction involving the acquisition of equity interests in a non-wholly owned subsidiary. The company has entered into a Partnership Agreement with several partners to establish a Limited Partnership aimed at acquiring 42.469% equity interests in the target company, ensuring it remains a non-wholly owned subsidiary. The transaction, valued at RMB2,010 million, involves multiple parties and is classified as a discloseable and connected transaction under the Hong Kong Listing Rules. The Board has approved the transaction, confirming that the terms are fair and reasonable and in the interests of the company and its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Sell with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.

GCL Technology Holdings Secures New Lease Agreements to Optimize Operations

GCL Technology Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary Suzhou GCL Research, has entered into a series of new lease agreements with GCL Energy Technology Group. These agreements involve leasing various portions of their research and headquarters buildings to different subsidiaries, including GCL Xinke, GCL Power Sales, and GCL Intelligent Financial Consulting, for terms ranging from one to two years. This strategic move is aimed at optimizing the use of their facilities and ensuring continuity in their operations. The new lease agreements, effective from 2025 to 2027, reflect GCL’s ongoing efforts to manage its real estate assets efficiently and support its subsidiaries’ operational needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Sell with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.

GCL Technology Completes Tranche 2B Share Subscription

GCL Technology Holdings Limited announced the completion of its Tranche 2B Subscription, issuing 1,353,043,000 new shares to Infini Global Master Fund at a price of HK$1.15 per share. This move is part of the company’s strategy to strengthen its financial position and enhance its market competitiveness by leveraging new capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.

GCL Technology Completes Tranche 2A Subscription

GCL Technology Holdings Limited has announced the completion of its Tranche 2A Subscription, issuing a total of 1,353,043,000 new shares to Infini Global Master Fund at a price of HK$1.15 per share. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to raise capital, which could enhance its market positioning and provide additional resources for future growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.

GCL Technology Reports Turnaround in Solar Material Segment

GCL Technology Holdings Limited announced a significant turnaround in its solar material business segment for the third quarter of 2025, reporting an unaudited profit of approximately RMB960 million, compared to a loss of RMB1.81 billion in the same period last year. The company’s strategic focus on energy-efficient production and collaboration across the supply chain has contributed to improved financial performance and positions it as a leader in the polysilicon industry, promoting sustainable growth and market stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3800) stock is a Hold with a HK$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stock, see the HK:3800 Stock Forecast page.