Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H (3678) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$826.51M
• Dividend Yield: 0.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 199.4
• Beta (1Y): 2.06
• Revenue Growth: -53.05%
• EPS Growth: -32.93%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 636
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 249,700,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,472,700
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,613,566
• PEG Ratio: 0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.89
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$3.50 ▲(2.34% Upside)

The score is primarily supported by a conservative balance sheet and strong recent cash generation, but is held back by a sharp TTM revenue contraction and thin margins. Technicals are only moderately constructive, and valuation is a key risk due to the extremely high P/E despite a very high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Low leverage and a stable equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk during market stress, allowing management to fund operations, maintain margins, or invest in platforms and client services over the next several quarters without urgent deleveraging.

Strong recent cash conversion

High operating and free cash flow relative to earnings supports liquidity and enables capital allocation to technology, risk management, or shareholder returns. Consistent cash conversion strengthens resilience to revenue variability and funds strategic initiatives over a multi-quarter horizon.

Diversified fee-based revenue mix

Multiple fee streams—brokerage, margin interest, advisory and partner arrangements—reduce dependence on any single product or market. Structural diversification helps stabilize revenues through commodity and cycle swings and supports cross-selling and client retention over months to years.

Negative Factors

Sharp recent revenue contraction

A large decline in trailing revenue signals weaker client activity or lost volumes, reducing earnings durability. If volumes remain depressed, fee-based income and margins may not recover quickly, pressuring profitability and limiting reinvestment or strategic spending in the coming quarters.

Thin and deteriorated margins

Compressed operating and net margins reduce earnings resilience to volume shocks and raise breakeven points. Sustained thin margins constrain free cash flow variability and restrict the firm's ability to scale technology, hire talent, or absorb regulatory/compliance cost increases over the medium term.

Volatile cash flow history

Intermittent negative cash flow years indicate earnings and collection variability, raising uncertainty about consistent capital availability. This volatility complicates long-term planning for investments, dividends, or buybacks and increases reliance on the balance sheet during adverse periods.

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holly Futures Co., Ltd. operates as a futures company in Mainland China and Honk Kong. The company primarily offers commodity and financial futures brokerage services; asset management services; futures and securities investment consulting services; and risk management services. It also provides financial assets investment products, including securities, funds, and wealth management products. In addition, the company offers variation basis trading, cooperative hedging, OTC derivatives and market making business, and warehouse receipt services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 39 futures branches and 6 sub-branches. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanjing, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. generates revenue primarily through brokerage fees charged on futures and options trading. The company earns commissions for facilitating trades for clients on its platforms, which can vary based on the volume and type of transactions. Additionally, Holly Futures may derive income from providing margin financing to clients, earning interest on the funds lent. Other revenue streams include advisory services related to risk management and market analysis, as well as potential earnings from proprietary trading activities. Strategic partnerships with market exchanges and other financial institutions also enhance its service offerings and can contribute to its earnings through enhanced liquidity and access to diverse financial products.

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (low leverage, stable equity base) and strong recent cash conversion support stability, but the income statement is a clear weak spot: TTM revenue fell sharply (~36%) and profitability is thin versus prior years, reducing earnings resilience.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been volatile—strong expansion through 2024 (annual), followed by a sharp contraction in 2025-09-30 TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (down ~36%). Profitability is currently thin, with low operating and net margins in the latest TTM, which limits earnings resilience. A positive offset is that the company has remained profitable across the periods shown, but the step-down from the stronger 2020–2021 margin profile highlights a weaker earnings quality/trajectory recently.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears conservative, with debt-to-equity staying low across periods and only modestly higher in the latest TTM versus earlier years, supporting financial flexibility. Equity has grown over time, and returns on equity are positive but currently subdued (low single digits in the latest periods), implying the balance sheet is under-levered relative to current profitability. Overall, the balance sheet looks stable with limited debt risk, but shareholder returns are not strong at present.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a notable strength in the latest TTM, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both large relative to reported earnings, indicating strong cash conversion. However, cash flow has been highly volatile (including a significant negative operating and free cash flow year in 2023), and free cash flow growth has swung meaningfully, which reduces confidence in consistency. Still, recent cash flow strength helps support liquidity and downside protection.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.34B	2.88B	1.94B	1.52B	1.63B	1.57B
Gross Profit	1.21B	179.72M	126.41M	104.86M	1.64B	1.57B
EBITDA	6.91M	79.12M	51.91M	42.94M	138.39M	123.27M
Net Income	15.49M	29.83M	7.79M	12.38M	80.21M	66.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.53B	11.70B	9.31B	10.48B	8.08B	6.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	660.10M	785.47M	825.66M	6.88B	4.96B	3.90B
Total Debt	330.90M	286.95M	191.27M	146.95M	174.65M	57.22M
Total Liabilities	10.66B	9.82B	7.47B	8.65B	6.40B	4.70B
Stockholders Equity	1.87B	1.88B	1.85B	1.84B	1.68B	1.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	766.54M	2.33B	-1.65B	1.86B	992.27M	791.61M
Operating Cash Flow	776.24M	2.35B	-1.62B	1.93B	1.24B	803.07M
Investing Cash Flow	142.29M	37.79M	121.90M	148.93M	-24.72M	-310.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-50.78M	-157.14M	-9.79M	119.82M	44.82M	3.95M

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3678, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.41, above the 50-day MA of 3.37, and below the 200-day MA of 3.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:3678.

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0717	69 Neutral	HK$633.64M	4.31	4.26%	―	84.88%	122.45%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
1461	56 Neutral	HK$701.33M	18.62	1.41%	2.39%	-18.72%	-45.10%
3678	55 Neutral	HK$826.51M	199.40	0.82%	0.33%	-53.05%	-32.93%
6877	52 Neutral	HK$276.53M	97.14	1.16%	―	-21.08%	-73.08%
0952	45 Neutral	HK$860.42M	-10.53	-4.03%	―	173.24%	-515.63%
0993	39 Underperform	HK$1.08B	-1.00	―	―	-78.40%	-196.19%

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H Corporate Events

Holly Futures Announces Board Refresh With Resignation and New INED Nomination

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. has announced the resignation of independent non-executive director Huang Dechun, who is stepping down after six years in the role in accordance with PRC regulations and will remain in post until a successor is approved at an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting; he also leaves positions on the remuneration, audit, nomination, and strategic and ESG committees, with the board noting there is no disagreement and thanking him for his contributions. To fill the vacancy, the board has proposed appointing Nanjing University Business School professor Wang Yuwei as an independent non-executive director for the fifth board session, highlighting his more than 25 years of academic and industry-related experience in finance and economics and confirming his independence under Hong Kong listing rules, with his qualifications and independence still subject to review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and approval at the shareholders’ meeting, signaling continuity in the company’s governance and oversight framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3678) stock is a Hold with a HK$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:3678 Stock Forecast page.

Holly Futures’ Concert Parties to Trim A‑Share Stakes by Up to 1% Without Change of Control

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. announced that Soho Holly Corporation and Jiangsu SOHO High Hope Group Corporation, both concerted parties of controlling shareholder Jiangsu SOHO Holdings Group Co., Ltd., plan to reduce their combined holdings in the company by up to 10,077,700 A shares, or about 1% of total share capital, via centralized bidding over a three‑month window following a 15‑trading‑day cooling‑off period. The reduction, drawn from pre‑IPO A shares and capped at 0.35% of capital for Soho Holly and 0.65% for High Hope Group, is intended to refocus the parent groups on core operations, optimize their asset structures, and limit earnings volatility from stock price fluctuations, and is not expected to lead to any change in control at Holly Futures, thereby limiting governance impact for minority shareholders and the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3678) stock is a Hold with a HK$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:3678 Stock Forecast page.

Holly Futures Elevates Long-Serving Manager Chen Ke to Employee Director Role

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. has appointed 32-year-old company veteran Chen Ke as the employee director on its fifth board, effective 19 December 2025, following his election at the employees’ representative meeting in accordance with PRC company law. Chen, who joined the firm in 2016 and has progressed through roles in settlement, human resources and the Party and Administrative Office, will serve through the current board term, receive no separate director’s fee beyond his existing remuneration, and his addition formalises employee representation at the board level without altering existing shareholding or control structures, signalling continuity in governance and internal stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3678) stock is a Hold with a HK$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:3678 Stock Forecast page.

Holly Futures Details Board Composition and Governance Committee Roles

Holly Futures Co. Ltd., a PRC-incorporated futures brokerage carrying on business in Hong Kong, operates in the financial services sector with a focus on derivatives trading and related risk management services for regional investors. The company has formalised the composition of its board of directors and clarified the roles and committee memberships of its executive, non-executive, independent non-executive and employee directors, detailing oversight responsibilities across audit, remuneration, nomination, risk management, and strategic and ESG committees, which is expected to strengthen its governance framework and enhance transparency for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3678) stock is a Hold with a HK$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:3678 Stock Forecast page.

Holly Futures Completes Shareholding Reduction Plan

Holly Futures Co. Ltd. announced the completion of a shareholding reduction plan by its controlling shareholder’s concerted parties, High Hope Group and Holly Logistics. The reduction involved the sale of 10,077,647 A shares, representing 1% of the company’s total share capital, through centralized bidding. This move is part of a strategic adjustment by the company’s stakeholders and may impact the company’s market positioning and shareholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3678) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:3678 Stock Forecast page.

Holly Futures Announces Proposed H Share Reduction by Subsidiary

Holly Futures Co. Ltd., a joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China, has announced a proposed reduction in its H shares by a subsidiary of its controlling shareholder, SOHO Holdings Group Zhong Shan Company Limited. The reduction will involve no more than 24,255,000 H shares, representing approximately 2.41% of the total issued shares, over a six-month period starting December 1, 2025. Despite this reduction, SOHO Holdings will continue to be the controlling shareholder, and the move is not expected to significantly impact Holly Futures’ operations, financial standing, or future development.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:3678) stock is a Hold with a HK$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holly Futures Co. Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:3678 Stock Forecast page.