Tsingtao Brewery Co (0168) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$79.61B
• Dividend Yield: 4.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 1.51%
• EPS Growth: 5.50%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 29,870
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 1.13
• Shares Outstanding: 655,069,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,537,698
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,674,522
• PEG Ratio: 8.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.26
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$68.00
• Price Target Upside: 37.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$57.00 ▲(15.20% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals—especially the ultra-low leverage balance sheet and solid profitability—supported by reasonable valuation and a high dividend yield. These positives are tempered by weaker technical momentum, with the stock trading below key longer-term moving averages and a negative MACD.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Extremely low leverage gives durable financial flexibility: it lowers default and refinancing risk, supports consistent dividend policy, funds capex or brand investment without external financing, and provides capacity to pursue opportunistic M&A or weather demand downturns.

High Profitability Margins

Sustained gross and net margins indicate structural pricing power and efficient production for a premium beer brand. High margins support reinvestment in marketing, maintain returns on equity, and buffer earnings against commodity input swings, underpinning long-term cash generation.

Strong Free Cash Flow Generation

Robust operating cash and a marked FCF rebound enhance the firm's ability to fund dividends, sustain capex, and invest in brand/distribution. Reliable cashflow underpins capital allocation flexibility and long-term shareholder returns despite episodic volatility in cash conversion.

Negative Factors

Uneven Revenue Growth

Inconsistent top-line growth reduces predictability of earnings and capital needs. Structural reliance on volatile domestic demand or episodic export trends can force higher marketing spend or discounting to regain volume, pressuring long-term growth planning and margin stability.

Volatile Cash Conversion

Lower OCF relative to revenue and year-to-year FCF swings suggest working-capital or investment timing risks. This volatility can constrain sustainable funding for capex/dividends in weak years and complicate multi-year investment programs without relying on cash reserves.

Margin Pressure / Mix Risk

Declining EBITDA margin signals rising input costs or deteriorating product mix and weaker pricing power. If persistent, margin erosion will lower free cash and ROE, forcing structural responses like price increases, cost reduction, or shifted product strategy that could impact volume or brand positioning.

Tsingtao Brewery Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, wholesale, and retail sale of beer products worldwide. It operates through seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Region; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtaoand and Laoshan brand names. It also provides wealth management, and agency collection and payment services; and financing, construction, and logistics services, as well as technology promotion and application services. The company was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsingtao Brewery generates revenue primarily through the sale of its beer products. The company employs a multi-channel distribution strategy, selling its products through various retail outlets, including supermarkets, convenience stores, restaurants, and bars. Key revenue streams include domestic sales within China, which represent a significant portion of its earnings, as well as exports to international markets, where Tsingtao Beer is well-received. Additionally, Tsingtao Brewery engages in partnerships with distributors and retailers to expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility. The company also benefits from economies of scale in production and marketing, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing while maximizing profitability.

Tsingtao Brewery Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall financial quality supported by an exceptionally conservative balance sheet (very low leverage, healthy ~15% ROE) and solid profitability (TTM gross margin ~41.6%, net margin ~14.2%). Offsetting factors include uneven revenue growth (including 2024 softness) and some volatility in cash flow conversion despite a strong TTM free-cash-flow rebound.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up (+2.5%) and profitability remains strong, with healthy gross margin (~41.6%) and solid net margin (~14.2%). Net income has grown meaningfully versus prior years, and operating profitability is resilient. The main watch-out is that growth has been uneven (including a revenue decline in 2024), and EBITDA margin in TTM is below the 2024 level, suggesting some recent cost/price mix pressure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative with very low leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.013; similarly minimal in recent annual periods), providing strong financial flexibility. Equity has steadily expanded over time, and returns on equity are consistently healthy (~15% TTM), indicating good capital efficiency. The primary weakness is limited here—low leverage can also cap upside in a strong growth cycle, but risk profile is clearly favorable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: TTM operating cash flow is strong (~6.0B) and free cash flow is positive (~2.7B), with a sharp TTM free-cash-flow rebound (+61.7%). Cash conversion is decent, with free cash flow running at ~55% of net income in TTM (improving from 2023). However, operating cash flow is relatively low compared with revenue (TTM ~0.31), and free cash flow has been more volatile across years, indicating periodic working-capital and/or investment swings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.54B	32.14B	33.94B	32.17B	30.17B	27.76B
Gross Profit	13.65B	12.93B	13.12B	11.85B	11.08B	11.22B
EBITDA	6.33B	7.09B	6.90B	6.10B	5.61B	4.40B
Net Income	4.63B	4.34B	4.27B	3.71B	3.16B	2.20B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	51.39B	51.42B	49.26B	50.31B	46.56B	41.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.12B	20.00B	24.79B	20.54B	17.38B	20.36B
Total Debt	401.88M	68.24M	63.39M	373.08M	406.99M	861.20M
Total Liabilities	19.19B	21.56B	21.00B	24.04B	22.77B	20.15B
Stockholders Equity	31.33B	29.06B	27.45B	25.49B	23.00B	20.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.67B	3.01B	1.16B	3.10B	4.41B	3.66B
Operating Cash Flow	5.89B	5.15B	2.78B	4.88B	6.04B	4.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.70B	-7.42B	-3.46B	-2.20B	-10.25B	-1.49B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.23B	-2.98B	-2.87B	-1.68B	-1.61B	-356.09M

Tsingtao Brewery Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 49.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:0168, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.24, below the 50-day MA of 51.20, and below the 200-day MA of 52.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:0168.

Tsingtao Brewery Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0168	76 Outperform	HK$79.61B	13.51	14.80%	4.69%	1.51%	5.50%
1876	73 Outperform	HK$101.52B	21.97	5.74%	5.59%	-9.54%	-27.75%
0291	69 Neutral	HK$85.06B	13.60	16.77%	3.42%	-0.31%	10.85%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
0236	56 Neutral	HK$448.28M	-55.56	-1.15%	4.07%	2.77%	-110.76%

Tsingtao Brewery Co Corporate Events

Tsingtao Brewery Announces Repurchase and Cancellation of Restricted Shares

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited announced the repurchase and cancellation of 1,667 Restricted A Shares due to a participant’s resignation, as part of its Restricted A Shares Incentive Plan. This move reflects the company’s adherence to its incentive plan’s provisions and will result in a slight adjustment to its shareholding structure, with no shares remaining under selling restrictions after the cancellation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0168) stock is a Buy with a HK$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsingtao Brewery Co stock, see the HK:0168 Stock Forecast page.

Tsingtao Brewery Reports Strong Q3 Profits Despite Revenue Dip

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited has released its unaudited third quarterly report for 2025, showing a slight decrease in revenue by 0.17% compared to the same period last year, but an increase in total profit by 4.89%. The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 1.62%, and the company saw a 7.82% increase in total equity attributable to shareholders, indicating a strong financial position despite a decrease in net cash flow from operating activities by 6.65%. These results reflect the company’s resilience and strategic positioning in the competitive brewing industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0168) stock is a Buy with a HK$61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsingtao Brewery Co stock, see the HK:0168 Stock Forecast page.

Tsingtao Brewery Terminates Acquisition of Jimo Yellow Wine

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited announced the termination of its acquisition of the entire equity interest in Jimo Yellow Wine due to unmet conditions in the Transfer Agreement. This decision underscores the company’s commitment to adhering to contractual obligations and highlights the potential risks and uncertainties involved in such transactions, urging investors to exercise caution.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0168) stock is a Buy with a HK$61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsingtao Brewery Co stock, see the HK:0168 Stock Forecast page.