China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (0081) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$9.40B
• Dividend Yield: 0.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.45
• Revenue Growth: -24.86%
• EPS Growth: -76.06%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 2,429
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 3,559,374,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,791,229
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,664,033
• PEG Ratio: -0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$2.46
• Price Target Upside: 26.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$3.00 ▲(53.85% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow generation and declining profitability alongside elevated leverage. Technicals are supportive with price strength above moving averages, but the stock looks very overbought. Valuation is mixed: a moderate-to-high P/E is partially offset by an exceptionally high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diverse revenue streams

Multiple revenue lines—development sales, investment property rents, and property management fees—provide structural diversification. Recurring rental and management income can stabilize cash flows across real estate cycles and reduce sole reliance on presales timing for liquidity.

Equity stability provides a balance-sheet buffer

A stable equity base offers a structural cushion against cyclical valuation swings and project write‑downs. This durability helps absorb losses, supports creditor confidence, and preserves access to funding during multi‑quarter market softness in China’s property sector.

Stable EBIT/EBITDA margins

Consistent operating margins indicate the company can manage construction and SG&A costs at the project level. That operational resilience supports long‑term project profitability and helps protect cash generation when top‑line growth is uneven.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow generation

Persistent negative free cash flow limits the firm's ability to internally fund land acquisition, project capex, debt repayment and dividends. Reliance on external financing raises refinancing risk and increases vulnerability to tighter credit conditions over the next several quarters.

High leverage and falling ROE

Elevated debt levels with declining ROE reduce financial flexibility and magnify earnings volatility. In a capital‑intensive, cyclical property market, this structural leverage increases sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing cycles, pressuring long‑term stability.

Declining revenue and compressing margins

Falling revenue and shrinking gross/net margins weaken the firm’s ability to generate surplus cash for reinvestment or debt service. Continued margin compression signals structural cost or pricing pressure that can persist across multiple reporting periods absent corrective strategy.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and leases real estate properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Property Investment and Development, Property Leasing, and Other segments. The Property Investment and Development segment constructs residential and commercial properties. The Property Leasing segment leases office units, commercial units, and hotel properties. The Other segment operates a hotel. It is also involved in fund raising activities; and provision of financing and investment, and property management services. The company was formerly known as Shell Electric Manufacturing (Holdings) Co. Ltd. and changed its name to China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited in March 2010. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential and commercial properties, which constitutes its core revenue stream. It also earns income from leasing properties, providing a steady cash flow from its real estate holdings. Additionally, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited engages in property management services, further diversifying its revenue sources. Strategic partnerships with local governments and other real estate firms enhance its project pipeline and market access, contributing significantly to its overall earnings. Economic factors, such as demand for housing and commercial spaces in key markets, also play a critical role in influencing the company's financial performance.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: inconsistent revenue and declining gross/net margins, high leverage with weakening ROE, and especially weak cash generation with mostly negative free cash flow and inconsistent operating cash flow.

Income Statement

The company has experienced inconsistent revenue growth, with a decline in the most recent year. Gross profit margin has been decreasing, indicating potential cost management issues, and net profit margin has also declined significantly. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have remained relatively stable, suggesting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, raising concerns about financial leverage. However, the equity ratio remains stable. Return on equity has been decreasing, indicating less efficient use of equity capital. The balance sheet reflects potential risks from high leverage, but equity stability provides some support.

Cash Flow

The company has faced challenges in generating positive free cash flow, with negative free cash flow in most of the recent years. Operating cash flow has also been inconsistent, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is currently unavailable due to zero operating cash flow. This highlights concerns over cash flow management and sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	38.59B	45.90B	56.41B	57.49B	53.83B	48.62B
Gross Profit	3.76B	4.52B	6.31B	10.31B	15.50B	13.48B
EBITDA	2.30B	2.34B	4.30B	8.65B	10.29B	9.68B
Net Income	353.30M	954.05M	2.30B	3.15B	5.05B	4.37B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	127.74B	129.18B	152.03B	202.97B	243.17B	198.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.53B	27.29B	26.02B	29.33B	19.88B	20.54B
Total Debt	42.10B	40.14B	43.60B	55.64B	58.85B	48.10B
Total Liabilities	89.35B	91.63B	113.90B	160.98B	199.43B	166.20B
Stockholders Equity	31.78B	31.40B	31.30B	33.62B	35.14B	24.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.39B	9.02B	9.07B	-4.49B	-3.74B	-5.88B
Operating Cash Flow	7.40B	9.03B	9.10B	-4.49B	-3.69B	-5.86B
Investing Cash Flow	411.36M	187.07M	-1.53B	-1.45B	-1.12B	-2.58B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.89B	-7.55B	-6.96B	486.87M	7.32B	7.38B

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:0081, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.18, below the 50-day MA of 2.17, and below the 200-day MA of 2.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.03 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:0081.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
0081	54 Neutral	HK$9.40B	24.72	1.10%	0.50%	-24.86%	-76.06%
0272	52 Neutral	HK$5.53B	32.24	0.42%	13.43%	41.24%	-39.89%
0028	50 Neutral	HK$6.71B	3.26	7.40%	2.21%	216.43%	186.77%
0173	46 Neutral	HK$8.20B	27.78	0.73%	3.32%	66.68%	-38.14%
0588	45 Neutral	HK$5.91B	-0.64	-41.74%	―	-44.25%	-406.20%
0119	45 Neutral	HK$8.98B	534.09	0.04%	0.98%	22.28%	-98.68%

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited Corporate Events

China Overseas Grand Oceans Posts Weaker 2025 Sales but Accelerates Land Purchases Across China

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited reported that its unaudited contracted property sales for December 2025 fell 43.9% year-on-year to RMB2.57 billion, with gross floor area (GFA) sold down 30.7% to 267,400 square metres. For the full year 2025, contracted sales declined 19.8% to RMB32.19 billion and contracted GFA slipped 15.7% to 2.94 million square metres, while subscription sales at year-end stood at RMB956 million, underscoring ongoing pressure on sales volumes in China’s property market. Despite the weaker sales, the company continued to expand its land bank, acquiring five new projects in December across Yinchuan, Hefei, Jining, Quanzhou and Lanzhou, contributing to a total of 2.93 million square metres of new GFA for 2025 at a land cost of RMB11.71 billion (of which 2.62 million square metres and RMB10.23 billion were attributable), signalling a strategic bet on future recovery and reinforcing its geographic diversification in second- and third-tier cities.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0081) stock is a Hold with a HK$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited stock, see the HK:0081 Stock Forecast page.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Renews Connected Design Services Framework with Huayi Design

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited has renewed its framework agreement with Huayi Design Consultants Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited, to continue sourcing design services for its property development projects from 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2028 through competitive tenders. As Huayi Design is a connected person due to COLI’s roughly 39.63% stake in the company, the renewed arrangement constitutes continuing connected transactions under Hong Kong listing rules, triggering reporting, announcement and annual review requirements but remaining exempt from circular and independent shareholder approval, thereby formalising an ongoing operational relationship while keeping compliance obligations relatively light.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0081) stock is a Hold with a HK$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited stock, see the HK:0081 Stock Forecast page.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Reports Decline in November Sales but Expands Land Acquisitions

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited reported a significant year-on-year decrease in property contracted sales and gross floor area (GFA) for November 2025, with sales dropping by 43.7% and GFA by 38.0%. Despite the downturn, the company continued its expansion by acquiring a new project in Lanzhou, Gansu Province, contributing to a total acquisition of 2,092,352 square meters of GFA from January to November 2025. This strategic acquisition indicates the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its market presence despite current sales challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0081) stock is a Hold with a HK$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited stock, see the HK:0081 Stock Forecast page.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Renews Agreement with COPL

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited has announced the renewal of its continuing connected transactions with China Overseas Property Holdings Limited (COPL) concerning the disposal of car parking spaces. The renewal extends the agreement from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, allowing the company to continue its transactions with COPL, which involves the rights-of-use of car parking spaces. This renewal is significant as it ensures the continuation of a strategic partnership, impacting the company’s operations and market positioning by maintaining a steady flow of transactions related to its property developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0081) stock is a Hold with a HK$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited stock, see the HK:0081 Stock Forecast page.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Reports Decline in October Sales Amid Expansion Efforts

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited reported a significant decline in its property contracted sales and gross floor area (GFA) for October 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 26.0% and 20.1%, respectively. Despite the downturn, the company continued its expansion by acquiring a new project in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, contributing to a total newly acquired GFA of 1,942,101 square meters for the year. The announcement highlights the company’s strategic focus on expanding its land bank, although it faces challenges in maintaining sales momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:0081) stock is a Hold with a HK$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited stock, see the HK:0081 Stock Forecast page.