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Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH)
NYSE:HHH

Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) AI Stock Analysis

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Howard Hughes Holdings

(NYSE:HHH)

73Outperform
Howard Hughes Holdings receives a solid score due to its financial recovery, strong earnings call guidance, and stable valuation. Key strengths include revenue growth and cash flow improvement, while high debt levels and operational challenges pose risks. Neutral technical indicators and the absence of a dividend yield are secondary factors.
Positive Factors
Business Strategy
Pershing Square's revised offer injects more cash into HHH, providing the company with $900M to use for future acquisitions.
Financial Performance
HHH sold 60 residential acres at $909k/acre, including 3.8 acres in Summerlin for $6.0M/acre, indicating strong sales performance.
Market Valuation
The revised offer represents a 46.4% premium to the unaffected HHH price, suggesting a significant valuation increase.
Negative Factors
Financial Risks
The increase in leverage to 58.0% net debt/TEV as part of the transaction may pose financial risks.
Market Uncertainty
No update was provided on Pershing Square's merger proposal, leaving uncertainty in the market.

Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Howard Hughes Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHoward Hughes Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Operating Assets; Master Planned Communities (MPCs); Seaport; and Strategic Developments. The Operating Assets segment consists of developed or acquired retail, office, and multi-family properties along with other retail investments. Its MPCs segment develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial land designated for long-term community development projects in and around Las Vegas, Nevada; Houston, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona. The Seaport segment is involved in the landlord operations, managed businesses, and events and sponsorships services of its restaurant, retail, and entertain properties in Pier 17, New York City; Historic Area/Uplands; and Tin Building, as well as in 250 Water Street and in the Jean-Georges restaurants. The Strategic Development segment develops and redevelops residential condominiums and commercial properties. It serves homebuilders. Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHoward Hughes Holdings makes money through a multi-faceted revenue model primarily centered around real estate development and management. The company generates revenue from the sale of residential properties, leases of commercial and retail spaces, and management fees from its portfolio of properties. Additionally, HHH earns income through strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other developers and investors, leveraging its expertise in large-scale, master-planned community projects. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by market demand for real estate in its target areas and its ability to effectively manage and enhance property values over time.

Howard Hughes Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Howard Hughes Holdings has shown a strong recovery with significant revenue growth and a return to profitability. The company has improved its free cash flow significantly and has a stable equity ratio. However, high debt levels pose a risk, and operational efficiency remains a challenge.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Howard Hughes Holdings has shown a remarkable increase in revenue from $1.02 billion in 2023 to $1.75 billion in 2024, indicating strong growth. Gross profit margins have improved significantly, and the transition from a net loss in 2023 to a net income of $197.7 million in 2024 demonstrates a turnaround. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are still lower compared to earlier years, reflecting ongoing challenges in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company has a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio due to significant debt levels, which could pose risks in a rising interest rate environment. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating a reasonable level of equity funding. Return on equity has improved as the company returned to profitability, enhancing shareholder value.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Howard Hughes Holdings has improved its free cash flow significantly from negative figures in 2023 to a healthy $447.8 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to profit. This turnaround in cash flow provides a solid foundation for future investments and debt reduction.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.75B1.02B1.61B1.43B699.49M
Gross Profit
731.95M433.97M633.62M500.01M201.98M
EBIT
559.92M-528.21M369.13M241.87M-119.56M
EBITDA
710.44M-342.20M556.39M399.26M358.20M
Net Income Common Stockholders
197.70M-551.77M184.53M56.10M-26.15M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
596.08M631.55M626.65M843.21M1.01B
Total Assets
9.21B9.58B9.60B9.58B9.14B
Total Debt
5.13B5.35B4.80B4.66B4.36B
Net Debt
4.54B4.72B4.17B3.82B3.34B
Total Liabilities
6.37B6.52B6.00B5.85B5.43B
Stockholders Equity
2.78B2.99B3.54B3.71B3.71B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
447.75M-265.82M323.25M-285.77M-74.48M
Operating Cash Flow
447.75M-258.48M325.25M-283.96M-72.87M
Investing Cash Flow
-300.79M-336.14M-220.69M101.46M-428.55M
Financing Cash Flow
-150.35M548.75M-222.26M156.14M1.12B

Howard Hughes Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price64.42
Price Trends
50DMA
74.21
Negative
100DMA
76.83
Negative
200DMA
74.69
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
44.90
Neutral
STOCH
28.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HHH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 64.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.28, below the 50-day MA of 74.21, and below the 200-day MA of 74.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HHH.

Howard Hughes Holdings Risk Analysis

Howard Hughes Holdings disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Howard Hughes Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Howard Hughes Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NHNHI
77
Outperform
$3.33B22.8610.53%5.04%4.88%0.41%
EPEPR
74
Outperform
$3.58B29.366.11%7.28%-1.01%-18.46%
HHHHH
73
Outperform
$3.40B16.297.91%74.92%
RYRYN
72
Outperform
$3.84B10.2919.79%4.79%19.50%106.12%
PCPCH
70
Outperform
$3.18B146.431.04%4.46%3.71%-64.41%
JOJOE
67
Neutral
$2.52B34.0710.54%1.25%3.46%-4.56%
61
Neutral
$4.30B16.20-3.61%11.22%6.29%-21.37%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings
64.42
2.04
3.27%
NHI
National Health Investors
71.67
15.61
27.85%
PCH
PotlatchDeltic
39.29
-3.40
-7.96%
RYN
Rayonier
24.24
-4.53
-15.75%
JOE
St Joe Company
41.63
-15.34
-26.93%
EPR
EPR Properties
46.23
8.22
21.63%

Howard Hughes Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -13.06% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance across multiple segments, with record results in MPC EBT and operating asset NOI. However, challenges such as a decline in commercial land sales, expected short-term reductions in retail NOI, and tenant vacancies in office spaces were noted. The company's strategic initiatives and financing achievements indicate a positive outlook for 2025.
Highlights
Record MPC Earnings Before Taxes
The company achieved a record MPC EBT of $349 million, exceeding guidance by $19 million and surpassing 2023's record results by 2%.
Strong Operating Asset NOI Growth
Operating assets delivered record NOI of $257 million, marking a 6% increase year over year, with multifamily NOI growing by 13% over the prior year.
Successful Condo Sales
Victoria Place in Hawaii was sold out, generating record condo revenue of $779 million with a gross margin of 27%.
Significant Financing Achievements
Over $860 million in financings were executed, including two significant condo construction loans totaling $680 million.
Anticipated Strong Performance in 2025
The company projects another strong year in its MPC segment with expected growth in residential land sales and increased custom lot sales.
Lowlights
Commercial Land Sales Decline
There was a $34 million year-over-year decline in commercial land sales, impacting overall MPC performance.
Potential Short-term NOI Reduction in Retail
Retail NOI is expected to see a modest reduction in 2025 due to nonrecurring collection of tenant reserves and ongoing tenant upgrades.
Office Space Vacancies
There were some tenant vacancies at various properties in The Woodlands and downtown Columbia, impacting office NOI.
Impact of Seaport Entertainment Spin-off
The Seaport Entertainment spin-off and related activities used up approximately $170 million of adjusted operating cash flow in 2024.
Company Guidance
During Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.'s fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive review of its performance and 2025 guidance. The call highlighted record Master Planned Community (MPC) earnings before taxes (EBT) of $349 million, driven by record residential land sales revenue and an average price per acre. Operating assets delivered a record net operating income (NOI) of $257 million, marking a 6% year-over-year increase. For 2025, the company expects MPC EBT to grow by 5% to 10%, with a projected midpoint of $375 million, while operating asset NOI is anticipated to be flat to up 4%, reaching approximately $262 million. Condo sales revenue is projected to be around $375 million, with no gross profit expected from the sold-out Ulana workforce housing project. The company also introduced a new guidance metric, adjusted operating cash flows, expected to range between $320 million and $375 million, with a midpoint of $350 million for 2025. Howard Hughes Holdings reported a strong liquidity position, with $596 million in cash and over $900 million in available liquidity, reinforcing its ability to fund development projects and strategic initiatives.

Howard Hughes Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Howard Hughes Extends Standstill Agreement with Pershing Square
Neutral
Apr 7, 2025

On April 7, 2025, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced an extension of its standstill agreement with Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. until April 15, 2025. The company has engaged Morgan Stanley as a financial advisor and Hogan Lovells US LLP and Richards, Layton & Finger, P.A. as legal counsel for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors. The impact of this extension on the company’s operations and industry positioning remains uncertain, as Howard Hughes Holdings has not committed to any specific outcomes from discussions with Pershing Square.

Spark’s Take on HHH Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HHH is a Outperform.

Howard Hughes Holdings receives a solid score due to its financial recovery, strong earnings call guidance, and stable valuation. Key strengths include revenue growth and cash flow improvement, while high debt levels and operational challenges pose risks. Neutral technical indicators and the absence of a dividend yield are secondary factors.

To see Spark’s full report on HHH stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
Howard Hughes Holdings Announces Leadership Changes
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

On April 1, 2025, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced amendments to the employment agreements of its executive officers, including David R. O’Reilly, Carlos Olea, and Joseph Valane. These amendments revise the definition of ‘Good Reason,’ introduce the term ‘Transaction,’ and extend the terms of O’Reilly’s and Olea’s agreements to December 31, 2028. Additionally, O’Reilly’s annual target Long-Term Incentive Plan award is increased to $4.5 million. On April 2, 2025, the company and its President, L. Jay Cross, agreed not to renew his employment agreement upon its expiration on December 1, 2025, marking a significant leadership change.

Business Operations and Strategy
Howard Hughes Extends Standstill Agreement with Pershing Square
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025

On March 12, 2025, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced an extension of its standstill agreement with Pershing Square Capital Management L.P., now effective until April 7, 2025. The company has not guaranteed any specific outcomes from these discussions and will provide further updates only if necessary. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC is advising the Special Committee of the Board of Directors, with Hogan Lovells US LLP and Richards, Layton & Finger, P.A. serving as legal counsel.

Business Operations and Strategy
Howard Hughes Rejects Pershing Square’s Proposal
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

On March 3, 2025, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced that its Special Committee has rejected a proposal from Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. received on February 13, 2025, deeming it unacceptable in its current form. The company has entered into a standstill agreement with Pershing Square to explore potential alternatives, which will last until March 13, 2025, unless extended. The outcome of these discussions is uncertain, and the company has stated it will not provide further comments unless necessary. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC is advising the Special Committee, with legal counsel from Hogan Lovells US LLP and Richards, Layton & Finger, P.A.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Howard Hughes Holdings Reports Record 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 26, 2025

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, with significant increases in net income and earnings before taxes across its segments. The company achieved record sales in its Master Planned Community segment and strong leasing performance in its Operating Assets segment, while also completing the spinoff of Seaport Entertainment Group to focus more on real estate operations. Looking ahead, the company anticipates continued growth in 2025, driven by strong homebuilder demand and strategic developments, including potential new residential entitlements in Ward Village, Hawai’i.

M&A Transactions
Howard Hughes Receives Revised Acquisition Proposal
Neutral
Feb 19, 2025

On February 18, 2025, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. confirmed the receipt of a revised unsolicited acquisition proposal from Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. The proposal, which replaces an initial proposal submitted on January 13, 2025, was discussed in a meeting on February 13, 2025, between Pershing Square and a Special Committee formed by the Howard Hughes Board of Directors. The Special Committee has not yet engaged in negotiations or made any determinations regarding the proposal, and no action is required from stockholders at this time. The proposal is contingent upon a definitive agreement and approvals from the Special Committee and the HHH Board of Directors.

M&A Transactions
Howard Hughes Receives Acquisition Proposal from Pershing Square
Neutral
Jan 13, 2025

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. has received an unsolicited acquisition proposal from Pershing Square Capital Management to acquire more shares and potentially take majority control. A Special Committee of independent directors will evaluate the proposal, with no immediate action required from shareholders. The transaction’s completion is contingent upon negotiations, a definitive agreement, and approval from shareholders unaffiliated with Pershing Square. The outcome remains uncertain, and Howard Hughes does not plan to make further comments unless necessary.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.