Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.86B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 522.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 195.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 59.27%
• EPS Growth: 240.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 545
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 59,636,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 716,035
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 522,134
• PEG Ratio: -0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.24
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 26.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.29
• 1Y Price Target: $100.00
• Price Target Upside: 24.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.67B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $69.00 ▼(-14.35% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

Overall score reflects improving but still volatile fundamentals and leverage constraints (financial performance), partially offset by a constructive earnings outlook with detailed 2026 guidance and strategic initiatives (earnings call). Technicals are neutral and valuation is reasonable with a ~16 P/E, but no dividend yield support is indicated.

Positive Factors

Record MPC pricing & earnings

Record MPC EBT and elevated per-acre pricing demonstrate durable land-value creation and pricing power in core communities. That embedded land value and entitlement skill support multi-year cash generation and margin potential as parcels convert to lots and homes across development cycles.

Growing recurring operating NOI

Record and rising operating NOI across office and multifamily indicates strengthening recurring income. Durable, same-store NOI growth improves cash flow stability, supports asset-level financing targets, and reduces reliance on lumpy land and condo monetizations over the medium term.

Stronger cash flow and extended maturities

Material improvement in operating/free cash flow plus proactive refinancing that extends maturities materially enhance financial flexibility. Higher cash generation and longer-dated debt lower short-term refinance risk and provide funding capacity for development, ops, and strategic M&A.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage

Sizable, persistent leverage constrains financial flexibility and amplifies sensitivity to interest rates and cyclical dips. High absolute debt burdens limit capital allocation optionality for development or opportunistic investments and require consistent cash generation to service obligations.

Volatile revenue and lumpy earnings

Large year-to-year swings in revenue and margins reflect the inherent lumpy timing of land and condo monetizations. This cyclicality complicates forecasting, weakens near-term earnings visibility, and makes sustained ROE and dividend policy difficult to rely upon across market cycles.

Vantage acquisition execution risk

The planned Vantage acquisition is strategically transformative but not closed; its insurance economics and integration require multi-year improvement. Execution, approvals, and capital allocation risk could divert management focus and introduce earnings/earnout variability if synergies or insurer metrics underperform.

Howard Hughes Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Operating Assets; Master Planned Communities (MPCs); Seaport; and Strategic Developments. The Operating Assets segment consists of developed or acquired retail, office, and multi-family properties along with other retail investments. Its MPCs segment develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial land designated for long-term community development projects in and around Las Vegas, Nevada; Houston, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona. The Seaport segment is involved in the landlord operations, managed businesses, and events and sponsorships services of its restaurant, retail, and entertain properties in Pier 17, New York City; Historic Area/Uplands; and Tin Building, as well as in 250 Water Street and in the Jean-Georges restaurants. The Strategic Development segment develops and redevelops residential condominiums and commercial properties. It serves homebuilders. Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

HHH primarily makes money through a combination of (1) master planned community (MPC) activities and (2) recurring income from operating real estate, plus (3) ancillary real estate monetization. In its MPC business, the company develops large, entitled land holdings and sells residential and commercial parcels (or finished lots) to homebuilders and other buyers; revenue and profit are driven by the pace of land/lot sales, pricing, and the company’s ability to create additional value through entitlement, infrastructure investment, and community amenities that increase land values. In its operating assets business, HHH earns recurring revenue from leasing and operating its income-producing properties—primarily base rent and recoveries from tenants (e.g., property operating expense reimbursements, where applicable), along with other property-level income such as tenant-related fees; profitability depends on occupancy, lease rates, tenant demand, and operating cost control. The company can also generate cash flow through strategic asset sales, joint venture activity, and other transactions that monetize developed properties or land positions when it deems pricing attractive. Key factors influencing earnings include the health of housing demand (affecting lot sales), local economic conditions in its core markets (affecting leasing), interest rates and capital market conditions (affecting financing costs and property values), and the timing/scale of development projects that transition from land into stabilized, income-producing assets.

Howard Hughes Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving but uneven: profitability returned in 2024–2025 and cash generation strengthened (2025 operating and free cash flow about $855M). Offsetting this, revenue fell sharply in 2025 (~-19.6%), margins compressed materially versus 2024, and leverage remains meaningful (debt-to-equity ~1.2x–1.8x; total debt >$5.1B), keeping stability and balance-sheet risk as key constraints.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, with a sharp decline in 2025 (annual revenue down ~19.6%) after a strong recovery from 2020–2022 and a loss year in 2023. Profitability is positive again in 2024–2025 (net margins ~11.3% and ~8.4%), but the trajectory is uneven given the large 2023 loss and the notable margin compression in 2025 versus 2024 (EBITDA margin ~11.9% vs. ~40.6%). Overall, earnings power is present but cyclicality/earnings stability is a key weakness.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-heavy (typical for diversified real estate) but leverage is meaningful, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~1.2x–1.8x range and total debt staying above $5.1B in 2023–2025. Equity improved in 2025 (up materially versus 2024), helping leverage metrics, but returns on equity remain modest in profitable years (~3.3% in 2025; ~7.1% in 2024) and were deeply negative in 2023. Strength: sizable equity base. Weakness: consistently high leverage and uneven returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved significantly in 2024–2025, with operating cash flow rising to ~$855M in 2025 and free cash flow also ~$855M (strong growth versus 2024). Cash conversion looks healthy in recent years (free cash flow roughly in line with net income in 2024–2025), but the record is not consistent—operating and free cash flow were negative in 2020, 2021, and 2023. Overall, current cash flow momentum is a strength, but history shows meaningful volatility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	1.75B	1.02B	1.49B	1.43B
Gross Profit	276.10M	731.95M	433.97M	642.06M	510.68M
EBITDA	517.54M	710.44M	-342.20M	602.23M	399.26M
Net Income	123.90M	197.70M	-551.77M	184.53M	56.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.64B	9.21B	9.58B	9.60B	9.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.47B	596.08M	629.71M	626.65M	843.21M
Total Debt	5.11B	5.13B	5.15B	4.80B	4.66B
Total Liabilities	6.80B	6.37B	6.52B	6.00B	5.85B
Stockholders Equity	3.78B	2.78B	2.99B	3.54B	3.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	440.76M	350.85M	-295.73M	323.25M	-285.77M
Operating Cash Flow	462.37M	400.94M	-248.18M	325.25M	-283.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-219.07M	-307.25M	-348.92M	-220.69M	101.46M
Financing Cash Flow	855.35M	-148.25M	551.22M	-222.26M	156.14M

Howard Hughes Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 80.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HHH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 80.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.40, above the 50-day MA of 77.29, and above the 200-day MA of 77.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HHH.

Howard Hughes Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JOE	78 Outperform	$4.05B	29.60	15.45%	0.98%	26.89%	53.54%
SBRA	70 Outperform	$5.23B	29.37	5.63%	6.47%	8.12%	75.95%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
NSA	65 Neutral	$5.34B	29.30	7.46%	8.28%	-4.98%	-65.45%
HHH	64 Neutral	$3.86B	195.53	3.55%	―	59.27%	240.63%
MAC	58 Neutral	$5.09B	-24.03	-7.72%	3.61%	8.06%	74.26%
SLG	51 Neutral	$2.90B	-38.62	-2.25%	6.95%	8.60%	―

Howard Hughes Holdings Corporate Events

Howard Hughes Sets 2026 Annual Meeting and Deadlines

On March 5, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings set June 4, 2026, as the date for its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders and designated April 6, 2026, as the record date for shareholders entitled to vote. The company said further logistical details for the meeting will be disclosed in its forthcoming proxy materials filed with regulators.

Because the 2026 meeting falls more than 30 days before the prior year’s meeting anniversary, Howard Hughes established new procedural deadlines that shape shareholder participation. Proposals under SEC Rule 14a-8 and bylaw-based director nominations or other proposals must be received by March 17, 2026, while shareholders planning to solicit proxies for alternative director nominees under universal proxy rules must give notice by April 5, 2026, tightening timelines for activists and other investors to influence the ballot.

The most recent analyst rating on (HHH) stock is a Buy with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howard Hughes Holdings stock, see the HHH Stock Forecast page.

Howard Hughes Unveils Strategic Expansion Into Insurance Holdings

Howard Hughes Holdings reported that for 2025 net income from continuing operations declined to $123.8 million from $285.2 million a year earlier, while adjusted operating cash flow also fell, even as its Master Planned Communities and Operating Assets segments delivered record earnings and NOI. The company highlighted strong land sales, particularly in its Summerlin and Bridgeland communities, robust leasing and NOI growth across office and multifamily assets, significant pre-sales of condominium units in Hawaiʻi and at The Ritz-Carlton Residences in The Woodlands, and the opening of its massive Teravalis community, underscoring the strength of its real estate platform despite lower headline earnings.

Strategically, 2025 marked a turning point as Howard Hughes announced a $2.1 billion agreement to acquire specialty insurer Vantage Group Holdings and received a $900 million investment from Pershing Square, moves that will shift HHH toward a diversified holding company model spanning real estate and insurance. The company ended the year with $1.5 billion in cash, substantial undrawn development commitments, record MPC earnings of $476 million driven by elevated residential land prices, and record Operating Assets NOI of $276 million, positioning it with ample liquidity and recurring income as it seeks to compound long-term shareholder value across multiple platforms.

The most recent analyst rating on (HHH) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howard Hughes Holdings stock, see the HHH Stock Forecast page.

Howard Hughes Refinances Debt with New Senior Notes

On February 17, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. announced that its subsidiary, The Howard Hughes Corporation, had closed a $1 billion private offering of senior notes, split between $500 million of 5.875% notes due 2032 and $500 million of 6.125% notes due 2034, sold to institutional and offshore investors. The issuance, which carries standard covenants, redemption options, and change-of-control protections for bondholders, extends the company’s debt maturity profile and locks in fixed-rate funding in the current credit market.

Substantially concurrently on February 17, 2026, the company deposited sufficient funds with the trustee to redeem in full its $750 million 5.375% senior notes due 2028, ahead of the scheduled February 19, 2026 redemption date. By satisfying and discharging the 2028 indenture, Howard Hughes effectively refinanced shorter-dated debt with longer-term notes, a move that is expected to enhance balance-sheet flexibility and provide additional capital for general corporate purposes.

The most recent analyst rating on (HHH) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howard Hughes Holdings stock, see the HHH Stock Forecast page.

Howard Hughes Announces $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On February 4, 2026, Howard Hughes’ subsidiary priced $1 billion in unsecured senior notes at par—split between 5.875% notes due 2032 and 6.125% notes due 2034—with closing expected February 17, 2026. The proceeds are earmarked to redeem the company’s 5.375% notes maturing in 2028 and for general corporate purposes, signaling a proactive refinancing that may lower near-term debt pressure and extend maturities for the developer’s capital program.

The most recent analyst rating on (HHH) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howard Hughes Holdings stock, see the HHH Stock Forecast page.

Howard Hughes announces major debt refinancing and 2025 update

On February 4, 2026, Howard Hughes Holdings announced that HHC plans to issue $1 billion of senior notes due 2032 and 2034 in a private, unregistered offering, and simultaneously disclosed that it will redeem $750 million of its 5.375% senior notes due 2028 on February 19, 2026, at a redemption price of 100.896% of par plus accrued interest, with the redemption to be funded by the new notes. In connection with the debt transaction, HHC released preliminary, unaudited estimates for 2025 showing a decline in total revenues and net income from continuing operations for both the fourth quarter and full year versus 2024, while reporting higher MPC EBT and Operating Assets NOI, indicating softer top-line and earnings performance but improved profitability metrics in key operating and master-planned community segments as the company actively refinances and extends its debt profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (HHH) stock is a Hold with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Howard Hughes Holdings stock, see the HHH Stock Forecast page.