Rayonier (RYN) AI Stock Analysis

194 Followers

Top Page

Rayonier

(NYSE:RYN)

72Outperform

Rayonier demonstrates strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and profitability, though cash flow management needs improvement. Technical analysis suggests positive momentum, but it faces potential overvaluation risks. Strategic corporate actions, such as selling its New Zealand stake, enhance its focus on U.S. operations and shareholder value, contributing positively to the overall score.

Rayonier (RYN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.78B

Dividend Yield4.79%

Average Volume (3M)1.25M

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1

Beta (1Y)1.01

Revenue Growth19.50%

EPS Growth106.12%

CountryUS

Employees424

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength86

IndustryREIT - Specialty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.36

Shares Outstanding156,056,460

10 Day Avg. Volume1,258,814

30 Day Avg. Volume1,251,094

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.10

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)3.41

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)12.30

P/FCF Ratio12.30

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$28.67

Price Target Upside21.84% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

Rayonier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRayonier Inc. (RYN) is a leading timberland real estate investment trust (REIT) with a diverse portfolio of timberlands across the United States and New Zealand. The company primarily focuses on the sustainable management and sale of timber, leveraging its extensive land holdings to support a range of forest products industries. Rayonier is committed to responsible forestry practices, ensuring environmental stewardship while supplying raw materials for paper, packaging, and other wood-based products.

How the Company Makes MoneyRayonier generates revenue through several key streams, primarily centered around its timberland holdings. The company earns income by selling timber directly from its forests, either through lump-sum contracts or pay-as-cut agreements. Additionally, Rayonier leases its land for recreational use and other purposes, such as hunting and conservation. The company also derives earnings from its real estate operations, which involve selling parcels of land for development or conservation. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in both domestic and international markets further enhance its revenue potential, allowing Rayonier to capitalize on global demand for wood and forest products.

Rayonier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rayonier's financial performance reflects strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by low leverage and solid return on equity. However, cash flow challenges and a slight decline in equity ratio present some risks.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Rayonier demonstrates strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth, evident from a 19.5% increase from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains solid profitability, with a gross profit margin of 37.9% and a net profit margin of 28.4% in 2024. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remained flat at 31.9%, indicating stable operational efficiency. Continued revenue growth combined with robust margins contributes to a high score.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Rayonier reveals a healthy equity position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 in 2024, indicating low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) improved to 20.3% in 2024, reflecting effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio decreased slightly to 50.9%, suggesting a minor decrease in the proportion of equity financing. The company's low debt levels and improved ROE are positive, though the declining equity ratio is a concern.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Rayonier's cash flow statement shows challenges, with negative free cash flow reported in 2024 due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, creating uncertainty in operating cash efficiency. Despite this, the company previously demonstrated positive free cash flow, indicating potential for recovery.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.26B	1.06B	909.10M	1.11B	859.20M
	Gross Profit
478.16M	296.66M	220.80M	313.50M	146.70M
	EBIT
402.47M	211.28M	165.80M	269.80M	74.40M
	EBITDA
553.20M	378.19M	303.84M	411.31M	275.73M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
359.15M	173.49M	107.08M	210.50M	37.08M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
323.16M	207.70M	114.30M	362.20M	84.60M
	Total Assets
3.47B	3.65B	3.79B	3.64B	3.73B
	Total Debt
95.74M	1.45B	1.60B	1.46B	1.46B
	Net Debt
-227.42M	1.25B	1.49B	1.10B	1.38B
	Total Liabilities
1.64B	1.69B	1.80B	1.69B	1.74B
	Stockholders Equity
1.77B	1.86B	1.87B	1.77B	1.47B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
159.06M	202.87M	-264.10M	70.00M	113.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
261.59M	298.38M	269.20M	325.10M	204.20M
	Investing Cash Flow
354.01M	124.09M	-516.40M	-26.30M	-213.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-479.36M	-328.87M	-4.60M	-16.30M	27.00M

Rayonier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price23.53

Price Trends

50DMA

26.47

Negative

100DMA

26.82

Negative

200DMA

27.42

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.41

Positive

RSI

62.29

Neutral

STOCH

67.22

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RYN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.18, below the 50-day MA of 26.47, and below the 200-day MA of 27.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RYN.

Rayonier Risk Analysis

Rayonier disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rayonier reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rayonier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RYN	72 Outperform	$3.78B	10.11	19.79%	4.79%	19.50%	106.12%
PCH	70 Outperform	$3.08B	141.97	1.04%	4.60%	3.71%	-64.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$4.31B	16.14	-3.60%	11.88%	6.17%	-20.99%
WY	59 Neutral	$18.49B	46.91	3.97%	3.18%	-7.17%	-52.62%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RYN

Rayonier

24.62

-3.79

-13.34%

PCH

PotlatchDeltic

40.37

-1.85

-4.38%

Weyerhaeuser

26.56

-6.16

-18.83%

Rayonier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -7.65% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Rayonier Inc.'s earnings call highlighted strong financial performance in 2024, with achievements in real estate and strategic timberland dispositions that improved leverage and shareholder returns. However, challenges in the timber segments, particularly due to external factors like Hurricane Helene, and a conservative 2025 outlook, indicate areas of concern. The sentiment is balanced, with significant achievements being offset by ongoing challenges and a cautious future outlook.

Highlights

Exceeded Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Guidance

Rayonier Inc. delivered a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $299 million, roughly 3% above the high end of their prior guidance range and slightly above the prior year.

Strong Real Estate Segment Performance

The Real Estate segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $63 million in the fourth quarter, up $10 million from the prior year period, driven by high premiums above Timberland value and strong sales.

Significant Timberland Dispositions

Successfully closed on $495 million of large dispositions, totaling approximately 200,000 acres during the fourth quarter, reducing leverage and returning capital to shareholders.

New Zealand Timber Segment Improvement

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased by $8 million year-over-year due to favorable foreign exchange impacts, higher volume, higher net stumpage realizations, and lower costs.

Reduction in Net Leverage

Net leverage reduced to below three times, returning over $110 million of capital to shareholders in the form of cash special dividends and share repurchases.

Lowlights

Southern Timber Segment Challenges

Despite increased non-timber income, the Southern Timber segment faced a 3% decline in harvest volumes and a 15% decrease in weighted average net stumpage realizations due to the impact of salvage volume on the market following Hurricane Helene.

Pacific Northwest Timber Segment Decline

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was flat year-over-year with a 3% decrease in harvest volumes and a 9% decrease in average delivered log prices.

Lower Carbon Credit Income in New Zealand

Non-timber income in New Zealand decreased by $2 million year-over-year, reflecting a lower volume of carbon credits sold and modestly lower pricing.

Outlook for 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Decline

Providing full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $270 million for 2025, reflecting a slight decline at the midpoint relative to 2024 adjusted EBITDA.

Impact of Dispositions on 2025 Outlook

The 2025 outlook reflects the completed dispositions, reducing expectations on the real estate segment following extraordinarily strong results in 2024.

Company Guidance

In the fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call, Rayonier Inc. provided guidance for 2025, projecting full-year adjusted EBITDA of $270 to $300 million, which is slightly below 2024's adjusted EBITDA of $299 million. The guidance reflects the impact of dispositions completed in the fourth quarter of 2024 and modestly lower expectations for the real estate segment. The company anticipates US Southern Timber segment harvest volumes of 6.9 to 7.1 million tons with modestly lower pine stumpage realizations due to salvage volume impacts from Hurricane Helene. In the Pacific Northwest, harvest volumes are expected to be approximately 900,000 tons, with anticipated modest increases in log pricing. New Zealand Timber segment is expected to see improved pricing dynamics and increased carbon credit sales, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $54 to $60 million. The real estate segment is expected to maintain strong demand, with a projected adjusted EBITDA of $86 to $96 million. Rayonier Inc. remains cautiously optimistic about timber prices improving alongside market demand and plans to capitalize on opportunities in land-based solutions, particularly in solar and carbon capture, to drive future cash flow growth.

Rayonier Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Rayonier Sells New Zealand Stake for $710 Million

Positive

Mar 10, 2025

On March 9, 2025, Rayonier announced a $710 million agreement to sell its 77% interest in its New Zealand joint venture to Taurus Forest Holdings Limited, managed by The Rohatyn Group. This transaction aligns with Rayonier’s strategy to focus on U.S. operations, reduce leverage, and enhance shareholder value, while TRG will leverage its expertise to drive growth in the New Zealand forestry business.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.