Gray Television (GTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $555.99M
• Dividend Yield: 6.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: -3.32%
• EPS Growth: -69.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,118
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Broadcasting
• EPS (TTM): -0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 93,563,705
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,602,226
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,593,889
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.98
• 1Y Price Target: $8.13
• Price Target Upside: 79.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.48B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-0.66% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

GTN scores in the upper-50s primarily due to weakened recent fundamentals (TTM net loss, sharply lower free cash flow, and elevated leverage). Technicals are supportive with bullish price positioning and positive MACD, but an overbought RSI tempers the outlook. Valuation is helped by a high dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was moderately positive on guidance execution and cost control but still constrained by leverage and rising CapEx expectations.

Positive Factors

Margin Sustainability

Gray’s operating margins remain robust (EBIT ~18%, EBITDA ~25%), which supports durable cash generation even as revenue fluctuates. Strong station-level margins provide a structural cushion for profitability, helping fund digital initiatives and deleveraging efforts over the coming quarters.

Liquidity and Tactical Liability Management

Substantial liquidity (> $1.1B), repurchase capacity and tactical debt transactions (add-on to second‑lien and calls of first‑lien paper) materially improve short‑to‑medium term financial flexibility. These actions lower refinancing risk and enable focused deleveraging or selective M&A without immediate strain.

Strategic Content & Distribution Enhancements

Renewals, Telemundo expansion and the Google Cloud Quick Play partnership strengthen Gray’s content distribution, Spanish‑language reach and streaming capabilities. These structural moves diversify monetization levers (retrans, national/sponsored ads, digital) and support longer‑term audience growth and revenue mix improvement.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Total leverage near 5.8x and first‑lien around 2.4x leaves limited margin for error and constrains capital allocation. High leverage raises interest and refinancing sensitivity, making sustained deleveraging critical; until materially lower, leverage will restrict investment flexibility and raise cyclical risk exposure.

Sharply Reduced Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow has collapsed relative to prior periods, reducing internal funding for capex, dividends, buybacks or debt paydown. Lower FCF combined with rising 2026 CapEx guidance increases reliance on external liquidity or asset sales and slows the pace at which the company can sustainably delever.

Revenue Volatility and Recent Net Loss

Revenue has shown material volatility and the company swung to a TTM net loss, reflecting sensitivity to ad cycles, retransmission dynamics and subscriber trends. This uneven top‑line trajectory complicates predictable earnings power and makes multi‑quarter recovery dependent on both secular and cyclical factors.

Gray Television Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Gray Media, Inc., a television broadcasting company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States. It also broadcasts secondary digital channels affiliated to ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX, as well as various other networks and program services, including CW Plus Network, MY Network, the MeTV Network, Justice, This TV Network, Antenna TV, Telemundo, Cozi, Heroes and Icons, and MOVIES! Network; and local news/weather channels in various markets. In addition, the company offers video program production services. It owns and operates television stations and digital assets that serve 113 television markets in the United States. The company was formerly known as Gray Communications Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Gray Television, Inc. in August 2002. Gray Television, Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Gray Television primarily makes money by monetizing the audience reach of its local television stations and digital platforms. Key revenue streams include: (1) Advertising revenue: Gray sells commercial time to local and regional advertisers (e.g., retailers, services, political campaigns) and also benefits from national advertising placed during network and syndicated programming carried on its stations; advertising demand typically varies with economic conditions and election cycles. (2) Retransmission consent and distribution revenue: Gray earns fees from multichannel video programming distributors and virtual MVPDs (e.g., cable, satellite, and streaming pay-TV providers) in exchange for the right to carry its local stations; these payments are commonly referred to as retransmission consent fees and are an important component of station economics. (3) Other station-related and digital revenue: Gray generates additional revenue from digital advertising and marketing services associated with its local media brands, and from other station-related sources (such as production and related services) where applicable. Material factors that can meaningfully influence earnings include local and national ad market conditions, political advertising cycles, the mix and strength of network affiliations and programming, negotiations and carriage terms with distributors (including disputes and renewals), and the company’s ability to grow digital advertising and related services alongside traditional broadcast revenue.

Gray Television Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial results are mixed and recently weakened: TTM revenue is down ~7.6% and the company swung to a TTM net loss (‑$85M). Margins at the operating level remain solid (EBIT ~18%, EBITDA ~25%), but free cash flow fell sharply (TTM FCF ~$61M, ~‑86% vs. prior period) and leverage is elevated (TTM debt-to-equity ~2.29x), reducing flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) down ~7.6% after growth in 2024 and declines in 2023. Profitability is mixed: operating profitability remains solid in TTM (EBIT margin ~18% and EBITDA margin ~25%), but net results swung to a loss in TTM (net income -$85M) after strong profitability in 2022–2024 (net margin ~10–12% in 2022/2024). Gross margin improved versus prior years, but the recent drop in revenue and return to losses weigh on the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated for the business profile, with debt-to-equity consistently around ~2x+ (2020–2024 range ~1.7x–2.8x; TTM ~2.29x), which increases sensitivity to earnings swings. Equity and total assets are sizable (TTM equity ~$2.16B; assets ~$10.44B), providing some balance-sheet support. Returns on equity were strong in 2020–2022 and 2024, but turned negative in 2023 and are modest in TTM, reflecting inconsistent bottom-line performance.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened meaningfully in TTM (operating cash flow ~$289M; free cash flow ~$61M), with free cash flow down sharply (TTM free cash flow growth about -86%). While operating cash flow still modestly covers reported earnings in TTM (operating cash flow to net income ~1.05x), the absolute free cash flow level is far below 2024 (free cash flow ~$608M) and below the stronger 2020–2022 period. The combination of lower cash flow and higher leverage reduces financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.10B	3.64B	3.28B	3.68B	2.41B
Gross Profit	2.99B	1.24B	898.00M	1.43B	803.00M
EBITDA	598.00M	1.25B	697.00M	1.33B	594.00M
Net Income	-85.00M	375.00M	-76.00M	455.00M	90.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.44B	10.54B	10.64B	11.15B	11.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	368.00M	135.00M	21.00M	61.00M	189.00M
Total Debt	5.81B	5.69B	6.24B	6.53B	6.83B
Total Liabilities	7.63B	7.61B	8.02B	8.39B	8.70B
Stockholders Equity	2.81B	2.93B	2.62B	2.77B	2.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	181.00M	608.00M	300.00M	393.00M	93.00M
Operating Cash Flow	289.00M	751.00M	648.00M	829.00M	300.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.00M	-28.00M	-291.00M	-503.00M	-3.53B
Financing Cash Flow	7.00M	-609.00M	-397.00M	-454.00M	2.65B

Gray Television Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.93, below the 50-day MA of 4.64, and below the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GTN.

Gray Television Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
GTN	58 Neutral	$555.99M	-5.52	-3.00%	6.45%	-3.32%	-69.63%
TGNA	56 Neutral	$3.24B	14.25	7.06%	2.58%	-2.73%	-25.06%
EVC	55 Neutral	$275.89M	-3.41	-98.27%	6.56%	-45.95%	-75.87%
SSP	52 Neutral	$300.03M	-3.48	1.81%	―	-3.27%	86.01%
SGA	52 Neutral	$77.21M	-8.92	0.18%	8.81%	-0.77%	-93.46%
BBGI	40 Underperform	$6.71M	-0.67	-5.86%	―	-7.78%	-369.53%

Gray Television Corporate Events

Gray Television Launches New Investor Outreach and Transparency Effort

Beginning on February 26, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. plans to hold periodic meetings and presentations with prospective investors, underscoring its ongoing effort to engage the capital markets and communicate its strategy. The company has prepared a slide deck for use in these investor discussions, signaling a structured outreach campaign aimed at informing potential stakeholders without altering its existing securities disclosure status.

While the materials are being furnished rather than formally filed under federal securities laws, their planned use highlights Gray Media’s intention to increase transparency around its business and financial profile. This approach may help the company broaden its investor base and refine its market positioning, but it does not, by itself, change any of Gray Media’s regulatory or reporting obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GTN) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Gray Television stock, see the GTN Stock Forecast page.