Nexstar Media Group (NXST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.88B
• Dividend Yield: 3.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 346.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: -1.42%
• EPS Growth: -8.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,773
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): -5.63
• Shares Outstanding: 30,327,997
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 288,413
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 346,551
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.98
• 1Y Price Target: $276.40
• Price Target Upside: 21.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 25.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.43B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $236.00 ▲(4.05% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/21/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash-flow resilience despite a sharp recent earnings downturn and meaningful leverage. Technical signals add near-term caution, and valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E, while earnings-call guidance and digital/CW progress provide a supportive offset.

Positive Factors

Cash generation resilience

Sustained operating and free cash flow across multiple years provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, capex and M&A. Strong cash conversion cushions cyclical ad swings, supports deleveraging and funds strategic initiatives without sole reliance on external financing.

Distribution & affiliation renewals

Multi-year carriage and affiliation renewals lock in retransmission fee streams and reduce revenue volatility from distributor negotiations. Contractual coverage across a majority of subscribers supports predictable distribution revenue growth and underpins station-level economics over the medium term.

Digital revenue acceleration

A structural shift toward higher-growth digital advertising diversifies revenue away from politically lumpy broadcast ad cycles. Accelerating digital monetization can drive higher growth and margin resilience, improving revenue mix and reducing dependence on election-driven ad spikes.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage

Sustained high absolute debt and elevated leverage limit strategic flexibility, increase interest burden and heighten refinancing risk. In a slower ad or distribution environment, leverage can constrain capital allocation and raise breach risk for covenants, pressuring long-term stability.

Election-driven earnings volatility

Heavy reliance on political ad cycles creates lumpy revenue and margins year-to-year, complicating forecasting and cash management. In off-election periods this cyclicality can depress EBITDA and free cash flow, stressing leverage metrics and constraining reinvestment capacity.

Deal financing & integration burden

Large note issuances and bridge financings materially increase fixed obligations and near-term leverage after closing. Elevated post-merger debt and integration execution risk raise refinancing needs, interest costs and potential divestiture or regulatory compliance costs that can impair long-term returns.

Nexstar Media Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nexstar Media Group, Inc., a television broadcasting and digital media company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations and interactive community websites and digital media services in the United States. The company offers free programming to television viewing audiences. As of December 31, 2020, it provided sales, programming, and other services through various local service agreements to 37 power television stations owned by independent third parties; and owned, operated, programmed, or provided sales and other services to 198 television stations. The company also offers video and display advertising platforms that are delivered locally or nationally through its own and various third party websites and mobile applications, as well as owns WGN America, a national general entertainment cable network. Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks. The company was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc. in January 2017. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Nexstar primarily makes money by monetizing audience reach across its television stations, national network operations, and digital properties. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Advertising revenue: Nexstar sells advertising time on its local broadcast stations and across associated digital platforms. This includes local spot advertising purchased by local and regional businesses, as well as national advertising sold to larger advertisers seeking broader reach. Political advertising is also a meaningful contributor during election cycles, as candidates, parties, and issue-advocacy groups buy airtime on local stations. (2) Distribution (retransmission) revenue: Nexstar earns fees from cable, satellite, and virtual MVPD distributors for the right to carry Nexstar’s local broadcast signals and certain affiliated programming. These payments are typically governed by multi-year carriage agreements and represent a major component of station-level economics alongside advertising. (3) Network and content-related revenue: Through its national network and content operations, Nexstar generates revenue from national advertising and from distribution/carriage arrangements with pay-TV and streaming distributors that pay to carry its network. (4) Digital revenue: Nexstar monetizes traffic and engagement on station websites, mobile apps, and other digital products through digital advertising and related marketing services. (5) Other/ancillary revenue: The company may generate additional revenue from services such as production, licensing, and other station-related activities; if specific line-item detail is not available in public summaries, null.

Nexstar Media Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and resilient cash generation (consistently high operating cash flow and substantial free cash flow, including in 2025) supports durability, but the latest period shows a sharp earnings drop and the balance sheet remains meaningfully levered (historically high debt levels), increasing risk if weaker earnings persist.

Income Statement

Profitability has historically been strong, with healthy margins in 2020–2024 (net margin ~7%–19% and robust EBITDA margins). However, the latest annual period (2025) shows a sharp profitability reset: net income fell to $109M (from $722M in 2024) and revenue declined ~3.9%, with reported margin fields also appearing inconsistent/partial versus prior years. Overall, the business shows proven earning power, but recent results point to elevated earnings volatility and a weaker near-term trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint. From 2020–2024, total debt remains high (~$6.8B–$7.7B) with debt running around ~2.6x–3.1x equity, which limits flexibility if operating conditions soften. Equity levels were relatively stable and returns on equity were strong in several years (roughly ~15%–35%), but the 2025 balance sheet data shows debt/equity/assets as zeros, which looks incomplete and reduces confidence in the most recent view. Net: capable balance sheet, but meaningfully levered.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow has been consistently strong (~$1.0B–$1.4B in 2020–2024) with solid free cash flow (~$0.85B–$1.25B), and free cash flow generally tracks earnings well (free cash flow close to ~83%–89% of net income in most years). In 2025, operating cash flow stayed very strong ($891M) and free cash flow remained substantial ($743M), even though free cash flow declined ~24% year over year and earnings fell sharply—cash flow resilience partially offsets income statement weakness.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.95B	5.41B	4.93B	5.21B	4.65B
Gross Profit	1.93B	3.19B	2.81B	3.21B	2.79B
EBITDA	1.31B	2.21B	1.79B	2.22B	1.97B
Net Income	109.00M	722.00M	346.00M	971.00M	834.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.99B	11.47B	12.08B	12.68B	13.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	280.00M	144.00M	147.00M	204.00M	190.90M
Total Debt	6.86B	6.81B	7.13B	7.00B	7.46B
Total Liabilities	8.92B	9.20B	9.77B	9.91B	10.41B
Stockholders Equity	2.06B	2.26B	2.30B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	743.00M	1.10B	850.00M	1.25B	1.06B
Operating Cash Flow	891.00M	1.25B	999.00M	1.40B	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-173.00M	-102.00M	-173.00M	125.00M	-232.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-582.00M	-1.15B	-899.00M	-1.51B	-945.00M

Nexstar Media Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 226.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 226.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 239.67, above the 50-day MA of 226.66, and above the 200-day MA of 198.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NXST.

Nexstar Media Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FOXA	68 Neutral	$23.33B	34.54	16.22%	0.75%	14.91%	9.30%
NWSA	66 Neutral	$13.98B	31.10	12.52%	0.76%	-16.36%	29.53%
FOX	66 Neutral	$23.33B	30.69	16.22%	0.85%	14.91%	9.30%
NWS	63 Neutral	$13.98B	21.79	12.52%	0.67%	-16.36%	29.53%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
NXST	58 Neutral	$6.88B	56.54	4.92%	3.66%	-1.42%	-8.99%
SBGI	58 Neutral	$948.24M	-9.44	-28.23%	6.52%	-0.98%	82.16%

Nexstar Media Group Corporate Events

Nexstar Announces Major Notes Offering for TEGNA Acquisition

On March 20, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its subsidiary Nexstar Media Inc. plans a private offering of $3.39 billion in senior secured notes due 2033 and $1.725 billion in senior unsecured notes due 2034, guaranteed by Nexstar, Mission Broadcasting and certain subsidiaries. The notes, to be sold to qualified institutional and non-U.S. investors under Rule 144A and Regulation S, will not be registered under U.S. securities laws.

Proceeds from the secured notes, together with cash on hand, are earmarked to repay bridge and senior secured credit facilities tied to the closing of the TEGNA acquisition, fund the purchase of TEGNA’s 5.00% notes due 2029 via tender offer, and cover related fees and expenses. Funds from the unsecured notes will be used to redeem Nexstar Media’s 5.625% senior notes due 2027 and pay associated costs, advancing the post-merger refinancing of Nexstar’s and TEGNA’s debt and reshaping the combined group’s capital structure.

In connection with the notes marketing, Nexstar furnished potential investors with unaudited pro forma condensed combined financial information and supplemental combined financial data reflecting the merger with TEGNA and related financings as if consummated at earlier dates. Management cautioned that these preliminary pro forma figures are for informational purposes only, are not indicative of actual or future performance, and may differ significantly from the ultimate financial results of the combined company.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXST) stock is a Buy with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexstar Media Group stock, see the NXST Stock Forecast page.

Nexstar Completes TEGNA Acquisition, Expanding Broadcast Footprint

On March 19, 2026, Nexstar Media Group completed its previously announced acquisition of TEGNA Inc., following approvals from the Federal Communications Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice, and structured the deal financing through a $2.39 billion senior secured bridge facility and new $150 million Term Loan A and $2.75 billion Term Loan B facilities. The proceeds, together with a portion of the bridge loans, funded the $22 per share cash consideration to former TEGNA shareholders, repayment of certain TEGNA debt, and transaction costs.

In connection with the merger, Nexstar converted TEGNA common stock into cash, adjusted outstanding TEGNA equity awards into cash or Nexstar stock-based awards, and secured amendments to TEGNA’s 5.000% senior notes due 2029 after receiving tenders and consents from holders of about 94% of the notes. Nexstar also agreed to regulatory commitments, including increased investment in local news, extending certain retransmission consent agreements at existing rates to November 30, 2026, divesting six television stations within two years if ownership waivers remain required, and promoting nondiscrimination and equal employment opportunity, moves that reshape its capital structure and expand its broadcast footprint while addressing competitive and public-interest concerns.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXST) stock is a Buy with a $290.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexstar Media Group stock, see the NXST Stock Forecast page.

Nexstar Maintains Dividend While Prioritizing TEGNA Acquisition

On January 30, 2026, Nexstar Media Group announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.86 per share on its common stock, payable on February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The board chose to maintain the current dividend rate while signaling that excess cash will be directed toward financing the pending accretive acquisition of TEGNA and/or debt reduction, underscoring a capital allocation strategy that balances shareholder returns with strategic growth and deleveraging; the company highlighted that its dividend yield of 3.59% places it in the upper tier of S&P 400 dividend payers, though future payouts will remain subject to quarterly board review.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXST) stock is a Buy with a $225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nexstar Media Group stock, see the NXST Stock Forecast page.