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Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)
NASDAQ:GSM
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Ferroglobe
(NASDAQ:GSM)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(6.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held back primarily by the 2025 financial downturn (losses, major margin compression, and negative free cash flow). Offsetting factors include a constructive 2026 outlook from the earnings call (growth guidance and supportive trade/energy developments) and moderately positive longer-term technical positioning, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings despite a modest dividend.
Positive Factors
Trade protections for alloys
EU safeguards and U.S. antidumping duties materially reduce unfair import competition for ferroalloys. That structural protection supports pricing and volumes for Ferroglobe's core alloy products, improving medium‑term revenue visibility, margin recovery potential, and downside protection versus open import pressure.
Production flexibility via furnace conversions
Converting furnaces to produce higher‑value ferrosilicon increases operational agility and shifts output toward more profitable alloys. This permanent capacity flexibility lets management capitalize on structural market improvements faster, enhancing asset utilization and supporting sustained margin improvement as alloy demand recovers.
Long-term French energy contract
A 10‑year energy agreement secures lower, predictable power costs for an energy‑intensive business. Reduced energy cost volatility and the ability to run plants year‑round materially improve fixed‑cost leverage, supporting more stable margins and cash generation over the contract term versus prior short‑term exposure.
Negative Factors
2025 margin and cash collapse
A sharp EBITDA decline and negative free cash flow in 2025 highlight the company's high earnings cyclicality and limited resilience during downturns. Such large swings weaken reinvestment capacity and financial flexibility, making sustained recovery contingent on persistent market improvements rather than short‑lived rebounds.
Silicon metal exposure to imports
Exclusion of silicon metal from safeguards leaves the segment vulnerable to large import inflows and depressed prices. Persistently weak silicon metal economics can force idling and depress consolidated margins and cash flow for months, limiting companywide recovery even if alloy segments improve under protections.
Input cost and PPA volatility
Rising raw material and energy costs and a large PPA mark‑to‑market adjustment introduce persistent earnings volatility. Energy/input cost sensitivity and accounting swings complicate margin stability and cash forecasting, increasing long‑term operational risk unless costs are hedged or structurally lowered.
Ferroglobe (GSM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$697.98M
Dividend Yield1.17%
Average Volume (3M)1.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-16.89%
EPS Growth-403.77%
CountryUS
Employees3,283
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.06
Shares Outstanding186,625,870
10 Day Avg. Volume1,367,286
30 Day Avg. Volume1,345,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-45.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside60.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.59B
Ferroglobe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionFerroglobe PLC operates in the silicon and specialty metals industry in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It provides silicone chemicals that are used in a range of applications, including personal care items, construction-related products, health care products, and electronics, as well as silicon metal for primary and secondary aluminum producers; silicomanganese, which is used as deoxidizing agent in the steel manufacturing process; and ferromanganese that is used as a deoxidizing, desulphurizing, and degassing agent in the removal of nitrogen and other harmful elements from steel. The company also offers ferrosilicon products that are used to produce stainless steel, carbon steel, and various other steel alloys, as well as to manufacture electrodes and aluminum; calcium silicon, which is used in the deoxidation and desulfurization of liquid steel, and production of coatings for cast iron pipes, as well as in the welding process of powder metal and in pyrotechnics; and nodularizers and inoculants, which are used in the production of iron. In addition, it provides silica fume, a by-product of the electrometallurgical process of silicon metal and ferrosilicon. Further, the company operates quartz mines in Spain, South Africa, the United States, and Canada; and low-ash metallurgical coal mines in the United States, as well as holds interests in hydroelectric power plant in France. It serves silicone chemical, aluminum, and steel manufacturers; auto companies and their suppliers; ductile iron foundries; manufacturers of photovoltaic solar cells and computer chips; and concrete producers. The company was formerly known as VeloNewco Limited and changed its name to Ferroglobe PLC in December 2015. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Ferroglobe PLC is a subsidiary of Grupo Villar Mir, S.A.U.
How the Company Makes MoneyFerroglobe makes money by producing and selling commodity and specialty ferroalloys and silicon products to industrial customers under a mix of contractual and spot-market arrangements, with revenue largely tied to shipment volumes and market pricing for its products.
Key revenue streams include:
- Silicon-based products: Sales of silicon metal and ferrosilicon. Silicon metal revenue is generated by selling material used as an alloying input (notably in aluminum) and as a feedstock for downstream chemical applications (e.g., silicones and other silicon-based chemicals). Ferrosilicon revenue comes primarily from sales to steel producers and foundries that use it as a deoxidizer and alloying additive.
- Manganese-based alloys: Sales of silicomanganese and ferromanganese, which are primarily consumed by steelmakers as alloying inputs. Revenue depends on steel production activity and alloy pricing.
How earnings are driven:
- Market-linked pricing and cyclicality: Ferroglobe’s revenue and margins are influenced by prevailing market prices for silicon metal and ferroalloys, which can fluctuate with global supply/demand, steel and aluminum production levels, and regional trade dynamics.
- Cost structure and input economics: Profitability depends significantly on production costs (especially electricity and other energy inputs, reductants and raw materials, and logistics). Changes in these inputs can materially affect gross margin even when sales volumes are steady.
- Product mix and regional/customer mix: The proportion of higher-value products versus more commoditized alloys, and the geographic distribution of sales and production, can affect average realized pricing and margins.
Significant partnerships or contributors to earnings: null
Ferroglobe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic strategic outlook: 2025 operational and financial results were weak (sharp YoY EBITDA decline, negative free cash flow in Q4 and ongoing silicon metal headwinds), but management secured meaningful structural positives — EU safeguards and U.S. antidumping rulings, furnace conversions to higher‑value alloys, a long‑term French energy agreement, targeted share repurchases and dividend increases, and a clear 2026 revenue/growth guide (+~20% at midpoint). Strong momentum in silicon‑based alloys and manganese segments, along with working‑capital improvements and booked incremental business, provide a credible pathway to recovery in 2026. Overall, the strategic and regulatory wins materially improve the medium‑term outlook, even though near‑term profitability and silicon metal exposure remain key risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Trade Measures Secured in EU and U.S.
European Commission safeguards implemented (targeting a 25% reduction in imports vs. 2022-2024 baseline) and U.S. International Trade Commission rulings imposing antidumping and countervailing duties on ferrosilicon imports (Brazil, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and prior action vs. Russia) — these measures materially improve competitive conditions and long-term outlook for ferrosilicon and manganese alloys.
Production Flexibility via Furnace Conversions
Converted three furnaces from silicon metal to ferrosilicon (1 in U.S., 2 in Europe) to optimize production mix and rapidly respond to improving ferrosilicon economics and trade-driven demand shifts.
New 10-Year French Energy Agreement
Signed a competitive 10-year energy contract effective Jan 1, 2026, providing lower energy costs and operational flexibility (ability to produce up to 12 months/year in France) which should improve earnings potential and fixed-cost leverage.
Strong Q4 Volume and Revenue Momentum in Alloy Segments
Total shipments increased 13% to 165,000 tons; Q4 revenue rose 6% sequentially to $329 million. Silicon-based alloys volumes increased 19% to 51,000 tonnes and manganese alloys volumes increased 16% to 81,000 tonnes.
Material Margin Recovery in Silicon-Based Alloys
Silicon-based alloys revenue up 12% to $104 million; adjusted EBITDA increased from $12 million to $60 million QoQ and margins expanded to 15% (up ~160 bps) driven by higher volumes and lower costs in Spain.
Manganese Segment Strength
Manganese-based alloys revenue increased 10% to $93 million; adjusted EBITDA doubled QoQ to $9 million and margins rose to 9% (from 5%), supported by EU safeguards, broader customer base and higher volumes.
Capital Allocation: Dividends and Buybacks
Increased dividend (announced another 7% increase to $0.15 per share starting Q1 2026) and executed discretionary share repurchases (~1.2–1.3 million shares at an average price of ~$3.55), demonstrating shareholder-friendly allocation despite a tough year.
2026 Revenue Guidance and Positive Volume Outlook
Management expects 2026 revenues of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion (approx. +20% at midpoint vs. 2025) driven primarily by volume growth in silicon-based and manganese-based alloys and benefits from trade measures and booked incremental business.
Cash Generation & Working Capital Improvement
Generated $51 million cash from operations for the full year, driven by a $48 million improvement in net working capital; reduced 2025 CapEx by ~20% to ~$63 million (sustaining capex expected to be similar or slightly lower in 2026).
Strategic Investment in EV Battery Technology
Increased investment to $10 million in 2025 in advanced silicon for EV batteries (Corcel); initial shipments to defense and robotics customers expected in Q1 2026 and a multiyear supply agreement is being finalized, representing longer-term growth/differentiation potential.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in Adjusted EBITDA and Margins
Adjusted EBITDA fell to $15 million in Q4 (down 20% QoQ from $18M) and full-year adjusted EBITDA was $28 million vs. $154 million in 2024 (an approximate 82% YoY decline); full-year adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 2%.
Negative Free Cash Flow in Q4 and Full Year
Free cash flow was negative $19 million in the fourth quarter and negative $12 million for the full year, reflecting weak EBITDA and working capital swings in Q4 despite annual working capital improvement.
Rising Raw Material and Energy Cost Pressure
Raw material costs increased 23% in Q4 (excluding a $40 million PPA mark-to-market impact); raw materials and energy as a percentage of sales increased from 58% to 67% quarter-over-quarter, pressuring margins.
Silicon Metal Segment Weakness
Silicon metal volumes and revenues declined ~3% sequentially (U.S. shipments down 8%); EU silicon metal prices down ~33% for the year and Q4 EU prices declined 7% QoQ. Silicon metal adjusted EBITDA fell from $12 million to $1 million in Q4 with margins compressing to ~1%.
Aggressive Predatory Imports
Predatory imports: Chinese imports of silicon metal into EU roughly doubled in 2025 and Angolan imports rose nearly fourfold, driving unsustainably low prices and forcing idling of EU silicon metal plants in Q4.
PPA Mark-to-Market Volatility and French Energy Issues
A $40 million PPA mark-to-market impact and unspecified elevated costs/operational disruptions in France (noted as a driver of higher costs) created earnings volatility and reduced clarity between accounting EBITDA and cash performance.
Silicon Metal Excluded from EU Safeguards
Silicon metal was excluded from the EU safeguard measures (due to energy-intensity and political/legal dynamics), leaving that product exposed to continued import pressure and a more measured outlook relative to other segments.
Net Debt Increased
Net debt position increased to $30 million in 2025, reflecting a deterioration vs. prior levels despite maintaining a generally solid balance sheet to support growth.
Quarterly Operating Cash Consumption and Working Capital Build in Q4
Q4 consumed $4 million in operating cash flow and net working capital increased by $8 million in the quarter (despite full-year improvement), contributing to negative Q4 free cash flow.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenues of $1.5–$1.7 billion (about a 20% increase at the midpoint vs. 2025) and said most segments should post “considerable” growth driven by strong volume gains in silicon‑based and manganese‑based alloys; they pointed to Q4 shipments of 165,000 tons (up 13%), Q4 silicon‑based alloy volumes of 51,000 t (up 19%) and manganese volumes of 81,000 t (up 16%), and cited macro/end‑market tails of EU steel +3% and U.S. aluminum +8–9% in 2026. Management expects policy support to help pricing (EU ferrosilicon indexes jumped ~20–22% after safeguards; ferromanganese/silicomanganese +16%/+21% in Q4), with EU steel safeguards (50% import quota cuts and 50% excess tariffs effective July 1, 2026) and U.S. antidumping/countervailing rulings (final measures expected in Feb and June) underpinning the recovery; they also noted operational moves (3 furnaces converted to ferrosilicon), sustaining CapEx roughly in line with 2025 (~$63M), net debt near $30M, a 7% dividend increase to $0.15/share, ~1.2M shares repurchased (~$3.55 avg), and reminded investors 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $28M (down from $154M) with full‑year free cash flow ≈ −$12M.Ferroglobe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial results weakened sharply in 2025 with a sizable loss, severe margin compression, and negative free cash flow. While leverage has improved versus 2020–2021 and 2022–2024 were stronger, the high earnings and cash-flow cyclicality remains a major risk.Income Statement
Profitability deteriorated sharply in 2025, with revenue down (~19% vs. 2024) and margins compressing materially (gross margin fell to ~3% from ~33% in 2024), driving a sizable net loss. Results were much stronger in 2022–2023 (healthy margins and positive earnings), but the pattern across 2020–2025 shows high cyclicality and inconsistent earnings power, which weighs on the score.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is currently moderate, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.42 in 2025 (and ~0.28 in 2024) versus very high leverage in 2020–2021 (>2.1). Equity remains meaningful relative to assets, but negative return on equity in 2025 underscores that the balance sheet is being stressed by the current downturn even if headline leverage is not extreme.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation weakened significantly in 2025: operating cash flow dropped to ~$42M (from ~$243M in 2024) and free cash flow turned negative (~-$19M). Prior years (2022–2024) showed solid free cash flow, but the large swing and negative 2025 free cash flow indicate elevated volatility and reduced financial flexibility in the current environment.41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.64B | 1.65B | 2.60B | 1.78B |
| Gross Profit | 45.99M | 541.35M | 697.22M | 1.23B | 496.68M |
| EBITDA | -113.85M | 127.99M | 263.08M | 725.48M | 33.74M |
| Net Income | -170.70M | 23.54M | 82.66M | 440.31M | -110.62M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.42B | 1.47B | 1.76B | 1.96B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 134.09M | 138.47M | 136.47M | 317.94M | 114.50M |
| Total Debt | 293.14M | 198.82M | 340.05M | 536.47M | 462.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 728.69M | 638.20M | 888.88M | 1.20B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 692.26M | 720.51M | 748.06M | 650.06M | 213.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -19.23M | 167.09M | 91.91M | 351.72M | -28.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 42.47M | 243.26M | 178.37M | 405.02M | -1.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.69M | -66.94M | -81.81M | -51.77M | -23.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.01M | -175.51M | -282.15M | -140.46M | 10.45M |
Ferroglobe Technical Analysis
Negative
3.74
Price Trends
4.91
Negative
4.68
Negative
4.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
27.74
Positive
4.66
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.72, below the 50-day MA of 4.91, and below the 200-day MA of 4.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.74 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSM.
Ferroglobe Risk Analysis
Ferroglobe disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ferroglobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting, we may not be able to accurately report our financial results or prevent fraud. As a result, shareholders could lose confidence in our financial and other public reporting, which would harm our business and the trading price of our ordinary shares. Q4, 2023
2.
The Company may be restricted or unable to pay cash dividends in the future. Q4, 2023
3.
Changes in laws, rules or regulations relating to data privacy and security, or any actual or perceived failure by us to comply with such laws, rules, regulations and standards, or contractual or other obligations relating to data privacy and security, could result in claims, changes to our business practices, penalties, increased cost of operations and could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Q4, 2023
Ferroglobe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $1.22B | 8.84 | 14.19% | 1.14% | 7.92% | 91.83% | |
57 Neutral | $900.06M | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% | |
53 Neutral | $1.17B | -143.02 | -6.14% | ― | 240.12% | 0.98% | |
50 Neutral | $697.98M | -5.12 | -22.22% | 1.17% | -16.89% | -403.77% | |
47 Neutral | $643.77M | -248.46 | -44.72% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GSM
Ferroglobe
3.74
-0.02
-0.53%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
21.50
11.86
123.03%
UAMY
United States Antimony
8.16
5.93
265.92%
NEXA
Nexa Resources SA
9.19
3.55
62.91%
NB
NioCorp Developments
4.43
2.27
105.09%
CRML
Critical Metals Corp
7.72
6.18
401.30%
Ferroglobe Corporate Events
Ferroglobe Posts Weaker 2025 Results but Sees 2026 Boost from Trade Actions and Energy Deal
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Ferroglobe reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $329.4 million, up 5.7% quarter on quarter but down 10.4% year on year, with adjusted EBITDA of $14.6 million and a net loss of $81 million. For full-year 2025, sales fell 18.8% to $1.34 billion and adjusted EBITDA dropped sharply to $27.6 million, yet the company ended the year with $123 million in cash, net debt of $29.8 million, and announced a 7% dividend increase.
Management highlighted that EU ferroalloy safeguard measures implemented in November 2025 and favorable preliminary U.S. silicon metal antidumping and countervailing duty findings are easing import pressure and improving the competitive landscape. A new 10‑year French energy contract is expected to reduce cost volatility and increase operational flexibility, positioning Ferroglobe to benefit from healthier market conditions and potential financial improvement in 2026 despite the weak 2025 results.
The most recent analyst rating on (GSM) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ferroglobe stock, see the GSM Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.