Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.69
• Revenue Growth: 4.40%
• EPS Growth: 536.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 134,361,650
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,214,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,977,358
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.86
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.64
• 1Y Price Target: $30.33
• Price Target Upside: 127.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.97B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(31.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is anchored by mixed fundamentals: a strong earnings rebound and improving leverage are tempered by sharply weaker 2025 cash flow and negative free cash flow. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, but technicals remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call is moderately positive on contract wins and 2026 growth outlook, though near-term margin and funding uncertainties cap the upside.

Positive Factors

Large contract pipeline

Record new business awards (~$520M annualized) and staggered activations create multi-quarter revenue visibility and backlog. This durable contract pipeline supports utilization of owned beds, justifies hiring and start‑up spend, and underpins sustainable top‑line growth as activations normalize.

Improving capital structure

Material deleveraging over several years and targeted liquidity actions (asset sales, $100M revolver upsizing) reduce refinancing pressure and increase financial flexibility versus prior cycles. A stronger capital structure supports pursuit of contracts and capital deployment over the medium term.

Service mix and ISAP scale

Growth in ISAP, GPS monitoring and expanded case management shifts revenue toward higher‑margin, recurring supervision services. Combined with transportation and U.S. Marshals wins, this broadens revenue streams beyond facility beds and increases per‑participant economics over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

A sharp decline in operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in 2025 indicates poor earnings‑to‑cash conversion. This reduces internal funding for capex, working capital and buybacks, and may force continued reliance on asset sales or revolver draws if the cash trend persists.

High absolute debt load

Despite improving leverage ratios, a large absolute debt burden increases exposure to rate and liquidity risk. In an environment with procurement timing variability from government customers, high gross debt constrains downside resilience and limits flexibility for strategic investments.

Government procurement risk

Significant revenue concentration with federal agencies makes GEO vulnerable to DHS/ICE policy shifts and procurement initiatives. Government warehouse or funding uncertainty can delay payments, slow activations, and materially alter private‑sector demand over quarters, pressuring utilization and contract timing.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

GEO primarily makes money by contracting with government agencies to operate, manage, or lease correctional and detention facilities and to provide related reentry and supervision services. A major revenue stream comes from long-term contracts and intergovernmental agreements under which GEO is paid fees (typically structured as per-diem/per-occupied-bed rates or fixed/availability-style payments, depending on the contract) to house and care for inmates or detainees and to provide security, staffing, food, healthcare coordination, transportation, and facility maintenance. The company also generates revenue from facility leasing arrangements where a government customer leases a GEO-owned facility and pays rent and/or services fees. Another key revenue stream comes from community-based and post-release services, including residential reentry centers/halfway houses, day reporting, and electronic monitoring programs, where GEO is paid by government agencies based on program participation, supervision levels, and contracted service rates. GEO’s earnings are influenced by contract renewals and extensions, facility occupancy levels, government incarceration and immigration enforcement policies, and the mix of owned versus managed-only facilities, as well as by customer concentration with U.S. federal, state, and local agencies and certain international government clients. Specific material partnerships, if any, are null.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 and leverage has improved over multiple years, but cash generation deteriorated materially: operating cash flow fell to ~$73M and free cash flow turned negative (~-$125M), indicating weak earnings-to-cash conversion and reducing near-term financial quality.

Income Statement

Revenue has returned to growth, accelerating to ~4.0% in 2025 (annual) after being roughly flat in 2024. Profitability also improved meaningfully: net margin expanded to ~9.7% in 2025 versus ~1.3% in 2024, driving a sharp rebound in net income. Offsetting this, operating profitability (EBITDA margin ~16.2% in 2025) remains below the stronger levels seen in 2022–2023, suggesting margin volatility and some compression versus prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated but is improving. Debt-to-equity has stepped down from ~3.3x in 2020 to ~1.15x in 2025, indicating a healthier capital structure trend. Equity has grown (supporting balance sheet resilience), and return on equity improved to ~16.9% in 2025. The main concern is that absolute debt is still sizable (~$1.73B in 2025), leaving the company more sensitive to refinancing conditions and earnings swings than lower-leverage peers.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025. Operating cash flow fell to ~$73M (from ~$242M in 2024), and free cash flow turned negative (~-$125M) after being consistently positive from 2020–2024. Cash flow also did not keep pace with reported earnings in 2025 (operating cash flow was only ~0.20x net income, and free cash flow was negative relative to net income), raising questions about working-capital timing, capital spending intensity, or other cash uses in the period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.63B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B
Gross Profit	663.07M	2.42B	668.94M	713.84M	627.57M
EBITDA	631.09M	355.44M	482.12M	527.29M	457.46M
Net Income	254.37M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.84B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.00M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M
Total Debt	1.73B	1.81B	1.89B	2.07B	3.06B
Total Liabilities	2.34B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B
Stockholders Equity	1.50B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	976.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-124.90M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M
Operating Cash Flow	72.61M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M
Investing Cash Flow	105.68M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-185.66M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.74, below the 50-day MA of 15.70, and below the 200-day MA of 19.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	78 Outperform	$1.51B	27.53	27.45%	1.29%	-2.28%	-9.94%
MSA	72 Outperform	$6.70B	22.52	21.82%	1.30%	3.31%	2.58%
BRC	71 Outperform	$3.93B	21.28	16.60%	1.23%	11.20%	0.71%
ADT	70 Outperform	$5.40B	10.53	16.19%	2.73%	4.77%	-22.78%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BCO	62 Neutral	$4.14B	24.49	79.36%	0.85%	3.07%	48.57%
GEO	59 Neutral	$2.20B	8.86	17.69%	―	4.40%	536.79%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Announces CFO Transition and Leadership Continuity

The GEO Group announced on March 5, 2026, that Chief Financial Officer Mark J. Suchinski will leave the company effective March 31, 2026, as he relocates out-of-state and moves to another industry, marking a planned leadership transition in its finance function. Veteran executive Shayn March, currently Executive Vice President, Finance and Treasurer, will assume the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on April 1, 2026, under a new two-year employment agreement that sets his compensation, equity incentives, severance protections, and post-employment non-compete terms, signaling continuity in financial management and governance for the company.

GEO’s board and CEO George C. Zoley emphasized March’s 17-year tenure and prior stint as acting CFO as key factors supporting his promotion, highlighting his role in acquisitions, divestitures and growth initiatives that shape the company’s strategic direction. The detailed package of salary, performance-based cash and equity awards, accelerated vesting provisions and benefits upon qualifying separation underscores GEO’s effort to secure experienced financial leadership while aligning incentives with corporate performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Reorganization

On February 6, 2026, GEO’s Chief Executive Officer J. David Donahue notified the company that he will retire effective February 28, 2026, and subsequently signed a separation agreement on February 9, 2026, that provides for continued vesting of existing equity awards, COBRA premium payments for up to 18–24 months and consulting fees of $104,167 per month through February 28, 2028. Beginning March 1, 2026, Donahue will serve as a paid consultant on secure services and business development, a move that preserves his institutional knowledge while smoothing leadership transition during a period the company expects to be active in pursuing growth opportunities.

On February 9, 2026, GEO’s founder and Executive Chairman, George C. Zoley, was appointed Chief Executive Officer effective March 1, 2026, under an amended employment agreement running through April 2, 2029 that sets his annual base salary at $1.2 million plus a target bonus equal to 200% of salary and an annual restricted‑stock grant worth at least 300% of salary. Zoley’s return to the CEO role, following his previous tenure as chief executive from GEO’s 1994 public listing through June 2021, reinforces continuity in strategy and governance at a time when the company is emphasizing expansion in correctional management, reentry services and other government contracts, and signals a renewed reliance on founder‑led leadership to steer its next phase of growth.

On February 12, 2026, GEO publicly announced these senior management changes in a press release describing the leadership handover from Donahue to Zoley and characterizing the shift as part of a broader corporate reorganization. The combination of a structured exit package for the outgoing CEO, a two‑year consulting arrangement and a multi‑year, incentive‑heavy contract for the returning founder underscores the board’s focus on stability, retention of expertise and alignment of top‑level compensation with performance as the company navigates a competitive and politically sensitive corrections and rehabilitation market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Upsizes Revolving Credit Facility for Flexibility

On January 20, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. amended its credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility commitments by $100 million, from $450 million to $550 million, while reducing the amount of additional incremental debt it may seek in the future from $250 million to $150 million. Announced publicly on January 22, 2026, the upsized facility is intended to enhance GEO’s balance sheet flexibility and support its future growth plans and capital allocation strategy, including a previously expanded stock repurchase authorization, and underscores growing support from its banking partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.