Genius Sports Limited (GENI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.19B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 30.70%
• EPS Growth: -49.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,850
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 238,718,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,022,797
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,354,187
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -13.69
• 1Y Price Target: $10.79
• Price Target Upside: 126.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $863.19M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(4.82% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is supported most by improving cash generation and a conservatively levered balance sheet, reinforced by upbeat guidance and strategic upside outlined on the earnings call. It is held back by ongoing net losses/negative margins, weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), and limited valuation support given a negative P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation

Operating and free cash flow materially improved in 2024–2025, with FCF turning meaningfully positive in 2025. Durable positive cash generation strengthens the firm’s ability to fund growth, absorb one‑offs, invest in product and integration, and reduces near‑term refinancing dependence.

Conservative balance sheet

Very low historical leverage and a growing equity base provide strategic optionality. A conservative capital structure limits refinancing risk and supports M&A or product investment, allowing management to execute on scale initiatives without immediate pressure to delever through distressed asset sales.

Strong revenue growth & product traction

Robust 2025 top‑line growth with outperformance in betting and media and visible BetVision expansion indicate durable demand and product-market fit. Diversified revenue streams (betting, media, integrity) and cross-product customer uplift support higher lifetime value and structural growth beyond short-term cycles.

Negative Factors

Persistent net losses and negative margins

Despite healthy cash flow and adjusted metrics, GAAP profitability remains negative with depressed returns on equity. Persistent net losses leave the company reliant on operational improvement and deal synergies to convert revenue growth into sustainable reported profits and shareholder returns.

Ongoing litigation uncertainty

Material litigation costs created a notable FCF headwind and management declined to quantify future exposure. Unpredictable legal outcomes can recur, causing cash volatility, diverting management focus, and complicating multi-year planning and the reliability of projected free cash flow conversion.

Legend deal approval and financing risk

The transformative Legend acquisition is conditional on regulatory approval and funded primarily by a large term loan. Closing and integration risk, plus near-term incremental leverage and earnout contingencies, could delay or dilute expected accretion and raise execution and cash‑flow risk until synergies are realized.

Genius Sports Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Genius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns; and fan engagement widgets for digital publishers that offer live game statistics and betting-related content. The company is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Genius Sports primarily makes money by selling access to its sports data and related technology services under commercial agreements with sports rights holders (e.g., leagues and federations) and by distributing that data to customers such as sportsbooks, betting operators, and media/broadcast partners. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Sports data licensing and distribution: fees paid by sportsbooks and other platforms for real-time, in-play and pre-match data feeds (often including “official” data where Genius has rights to collect and commercialize data from a league). These arrangements are typically contracted and usage-based and may be tied to the number of sports, competitions, markets, or transaction volumes supported. (2) Betting technology and services: revenue from providing betting-related infrastructure and software (such as tools supporting live betting operations, trading, and risk-related workflows) and other managed services to sportsbook customers. (3) Media and advertising/activation: revenue generated from products that power fan engagement, content augmentation, and advertising activation tied to sports data (for example, data-driven graphics, interactive experiences, and campaigns delivered with league or media partners), where Genius may earn platform/service fees and, in some cases, share in advertising or activation economics depending on the arrangement. (4) Integrity and compliance services: fees for integrity monitoring, suspicious betting detection, and related compliance/education services sold to leagues, sportsbooks, and other stakeholders. Significant earnings drivers include long-term partnerships with sports rights holders that grant Genius the ability to capture and commercialize official data, and distribution relationships with sportsbooks, betting platforms, and media companies that embed Genius feeds and tools into live betting and content products.

Genius Sports Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow and balance sheet are clear strengths (positive and improving operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025; very low leverage and growing equity), but overall fundamentals are held back by continued net losses and still-negative margins, with some recent gross-margin pressure versus 2024.

Income Statement

Revenue growth remains solid and has accelerated in the latest annual period (2025 revenue up 10.7% vs. 2024’s near-flat growth), showing improving demand and scale. Profitability, however, is still the key drag: the company remains net-loss making across all reported years, and margins are still negative in 2025 (net margin about -16.7% and EBITDA margin about -4.9%). Gross margin improved materially from 2022 levels but slipped versus 2024 (about 23.0% in 2025 vs. 25.2% in 2024), indicating some pressure on cost of revenue even as the business grows.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength, with very low leverage in recent years (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.04; 2024 ~0.01), giving the company flexibility and limiting refinancing risk. Equity has also grown meaningfully (2025 equity ~$724M vs. ~$572M in 2024), supporting a stronger capital base. The main weakness is that losses continue to depress returns on shareholder capital (2025 return on equity is negative at about -15%), so while leverage is conservative, profitability still needs to improve to fully capitalize on the balance-sheet strength.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved sharply: operating cash flow was positive and strong in both 2024 and 2025 (about $82M and $86M, respectively), and free cash flow turned solidly positive in 2025 (~$65M) after a much smaller positive level in 2024. The trajectory is favorable, highlighted by a large 2025 free-cash-flow increase versus 2024, suggesting better working-capital and/or operating efficiency. A notable watch item is that the company still reports net losses, so cash flow durability through different growth environments remains a key point to monitor.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	669.49M	510.89M	412.98M	341.03M	262.74M
Gross Profit	153.84M	128.71M	69.00M	2.86M	-213.43M
EBITDA	-32.65M	16.28M	5.64M	-112.67M	-541.77M
Net Income	-111.58M	-63.04M	-85.53M	-181.64M	-592.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	792.27M	775.72M	773.34M	887.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	280.56M	110.21M	100.33M	122.72M	222.38M
Total Debt	30.50M	7.51M	14.70M	21.24M	88.00K
Total Liabilities	405.81M	219.86M	202.71M	196.52M	180.91M
Stockholders Equity	724.48M	572.40M	573.02M	576.82M	706.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	64.54M	17.61M	-34.27M	-51.01M	-96.67M
Operating Cash Flow	86.39M	81.86M	14.88M	-3.46M	-63.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-92.91M	-62.69M	-47.57M	-54.82M	-132.32M
Financing Cash Flow	143.98M	-7.60M	-596.00K	-21.00K	410.36M

Genius Sports Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GENI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.70, below the 50-day MA of 7.44, and below the 200-day MA of 10.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 26.45 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GENI.

Genius Sports Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPRA	82 Outperform	$1.31B	11.67	11.26%	5.47%	30.00%	-9.72%
DASH	66 Neutral	$71.68B	103.44	10.15%	―	24.46%	―
TRVG	64 Neutral	$1.39B	15.50	5.63%	―	17.38%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
GENI	60 Neutral	$1.19B	-25.16	-15.51%	―	30.70%	-49.80%
NN	58 Neutral	$2.48B	-11.68	508.08%	―	11.61%	-54.84%
SEAT	43 Neutral	$68.47M	-0.03	-51.54%	―	-16.83%	-485.31%

Genius Sports Limited Corporate Events

Genius Sports Posts Double-Digit 2025 Growth and Reaffirms 2026 Outlook as Legend Deal Looms

On March 4, 2026, Genius Sports reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing sharp top-line and profitability gains, even as it remained loss-making. Group revenue rose 37% in Q4 to $240.5 million and 31% for 2025 to $669.5 million, led by 33% growth in Betting Technology, Content & Services and 37% growth in Media Technology, Content & Services, while Sports Technology & Services delivered modest gains.

Adjusted EBITDA climbed 49% in Q4 to $48.3 million and 59% for the full year to $136.2 million, expanding margins to about 20%, but the company’s 2025 net loss widened to $111.6 million, largely due to nonrecurring stock-based compensation tied to an extended NFL license and higher litigation costs. Management reaffirmed standalone 2026 guidance, highlighted accelerating momentum in its media business, and pointed to the pending Legend acquisition and new partnerships with major agencies and broadcasters as key steps to strengthen its strategic and financial profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (GENI) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genius Sports Limited stock, see the GENI Stock Forecast page.

Genius Sports Executives and Directors Buy 1.4 Million Shares in February 2026

Genius Sports Limited disclosed that members of its senior management and Board of Directors, including co-founder and chief executive Mark Locke and chairman Kenneth Kay, along with the Legend Founder, bought roughly 1.4 million of the company’s ordinary shares. The insider purchases took place during the week ended February 13, 2026, signaling internal confidence in the company’s valuation and prospects and potentially providing a supportive signal to investors monitoring management’s alignment with shareholders.

The move underscores a notable show of commitment from top leadership at a time when market participants often scrutinize insider trading activity as an indicator of future performance. While the company did not detail the purchase prices or individual allocations, the scale and concentration of these buys by key decision-makers may bolster market perception of Genius Sports’ strategic direction and long-term growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (GENI) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genius Sports Limited stock, see the GENI Stock Forecast page.

Genius Sports to Buy Legend in Up to $1.2 Billion Deal to Build Integrated Sports Data and Media Giant

On February 5, 2026, Genius Sports Limited signed a definitive agreement to acquire Zeal Ltd (Legend), a global digital sports and gaming media network, in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion, comprising $900 million in upfront cash-and-stock consideration and up to $300 million in earnout tied to profitability and cash flow targets over two years post-closing. The deal, expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to customary regulatory approvals, will be financed primarily through a committed $850 million senior secured term loan and an undrawn $220 million revolving credit facility, with seller shares subject to a six‑month lock‑up, and is intended to create what Genius describes as the only player combining official sports data operations with a scaled media and advertising network. Management expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to Group Adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow conversion, targeting on a 2026 pro forma basis about $1.1 billion in revenue, $320–330 million in adjusted EBITDA and roughly 50% free cash flow conversion, while setting a higher 2028 ambition of $1.6 billion in revenue, 35% margins and at least 60% cash conversion. Legend, which in 2025 generated 320 million annual visits from 118 million unique sports and gaming users and syndicates content through outlets such as Sports Illustrated and Yahoo Sports, is intended to “supercharge” fan monetization by integrating its audience and marketing technology with Genius’s FANHub platform and 2,000-plus sports, media and betting partners. Alongside the deal, Genius released preliminary unaudited 2025 results showing 31% revenue growth to $669 million and a 59% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $136 million with a 20% margin, and guided standalone 2026 revenue to $810–820 million and adjusted EBITDA to $180–190 million, implying continued margin expansion as the company leans into scale and aims to delever to below 1.5x by 2028, signaling a more cash-generative, media-heavy profile for shareholders and partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (GENI) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genius Sports Limited stock, see the GENI Stock Forecast page.