Great Elm Group (GEG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $68.76M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 86.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): >-0.01
• Revenue Growth: 24.82%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 31
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Medical - Distribution
• EPS (TTM): -0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 32,744,553
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 54,651
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 86,928
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.51
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 36.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.51
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-18.37% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (large TTM losses and volatile/declining revenue), with only partial offset from improved TTM cash flow and a moderate-leverage balance sheet. Technicals also remain bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation metrics provide limited support given the negative P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Improved cash generation

Trailing-twelve-month positive operating and free cash flow (~$4.3M) provides durable liquidity to fund operations, support portfolio investments and cover near-term obligations without immediate external financing. This strengthens operational resilience while management works to restore consistent earnings.

Serviceable balance sheet

Current moderate leverage (debt-to-equity roughly 0.66) and positive equity give the firm flexibility to support investment activity and absorb shocks. This balance-sheet position reduces refinancing pressure versus prior high-leverage years and helps preserve capacity for capital deployment.

Clearer segment reporting

Adoption of a two-segment reporting structure (Alternative Credit and Real Estate) aligns disclosures with management’s capital allocation, improving transparency and enabling investors to assess strategy-level performance and long-term allocation decisions across distinct investment businesses.

Negative Factors

Large ongoing net losses

A substantial TTM net loss and very negative margins weaken return generation for shareholders and limit the firm’s ability to organically reinvest in deal sourcing or scale funds. Persistent losses can force asset sales, constrain fee growth and raise the cost of capital over time.

Volatile and contracting revenue

Highly volatile historical revenue and a recent TTM contraction undermine fee predictability critical to an asset manager’s business model. Unstable top-line flows complicate AUM growth, impair medium-term planning, and reduce the reliability of management-fee driven cash generation.

History of elevated leverage

Past episodes of high leverage ( >2x D/E in 2022, near 1x in 2023–24) indicate the balance sheet can become strained if profitability falters. Recurring leverage spikes raise refinancing and covenant risk, limiting strategic flexibility for acquisitions, fund commitments and long-term investments.

Great Elm Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Great Elm Group, Inc. engages in the durable medical equipment and investment management businesses. The company distributes respiratory care equipment, including positive air pressure equipment and supplies, ventilators and oxygen equipment, and replacement parts, as well as provides sleep study services; and rents medical equipment. It also offers investment management services. The company was formerly known as Great Elm Capital Group, Inc. and changed its name to Great Elm Group, Inc. in December 2020. Great Elm Group, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Great Elm Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. The company manages a portfolio of investments across different asset classes, earning management fees based on the assets under management (AUM). Additionally, GEG collects performance fees when the funds achieve certain return benchmarks, aligning its interests with those of its investors. Significant partnerships with institutional investors, family offices, and strategic alliances with other investment firms enhance GEG's capital-raising efforts and provide access to a broader range of investment opportunities, further contributing to its earnings.

Great Elm Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement quality is weak (large TTM net loss, negative operating earnings, and contracting/volatile revenue), partially offset by a serviceable balance sheet (moderate leverage with positive equity) and improved TTM cash generation (positive operating and free cash flow). Overall fundamentals remain dependent on a sustained profitability turnaround.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows weak profitability with a large net loss (net margin about -61%) and negative operating earnings, despite positive gross profit. Revenue has been highly volatile across annual periods (sharp declines in some years and strong rebounds in others), and the latest TTM revenue contraction indicates the top line is not yet stabilizing. Prior annual results also appear inconsistent (including years with unusually high profit versus weak gross profit), which raises questions about earnings quality and repeatability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate in TTM (debt-to-equity ~0.66) and equity remains positive, which provides some balance-sheet support. However, returns on equity are negative in TTM (loss-making), and the company has a history of higher leverage in earlier years (debt-to-equity above 2x in 2022 and near ~1x in 2023–2024). Overall, the balance sheet is not the core problem, but profitability needs to improve to keep leverage from becoming a constraint.

Cash Flow

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) cash generation is a relative bright spot, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow of ~$4.3M and a sharp improvement versus the prior annual period. That said, cash flow has been inconsistent historically (several years of negative operating and free cash flow), and TTM operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of operating losses, indicating cash flow strength may not be durable without an underlying earnings turnaround.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.62M	16.32M	17.83M	8.66M	4.52M	60.85M
Gross Profit	1.77M	-108.00K	977.00K	-1.53M	-2.10M	33.53M
EBITDA	-7.63M	21.04M	4.60M	21.91M	-8.22M	655.00K
Net Income	-13.71M	12.89M	-1.39M	27.73M	-14.89M	-7.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	135.49M	153.94M	140.45M	135.89M	168.09M	161.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	105.35M	109.45M	116.50M	117.37M	72.12M	74.92M
Total Debt	64.57M	62.59M	61.18M	63.44M	70.80M	40.89M
Total Liabilities	75.80M	73.27M	70.25M	72.05M	125.83M	106.44M
Stockholders Equity	55.76M	70.32M	62.71M	63.84M	33.50M	43.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.28M	-9.01M	-15.55M	-2.43M	28.45M	-25.95M
Operating Cash Flow	4.28M	-9.01M	-15.55M	-2.37M	29.28M	-18.98M
Investing Cash Flow	807.00K	-1.34M	2.27M	83.96M	-40.02M	-15.48M
Financing Cash Flow	3.38M	-8.77M	2.84M	-47.62M	9.95M	18.34M

Great Elm Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.06, above the 50-day MA of 2.19, and above the 200-day MA of 2.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEG.

Great Elm Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
RDGT	54 Neutral	$36.39M	0.57	39.90%	―	-22.37%	63.14%
SNYR	50 Neutral	$14.63M	49.21	―	―	―	―
GEG	45 Neutral	$68.76M	-1.28	-21.33%	―	24.82%	―

Great Elm Group Corporate Events

Great Elm Group Adopts New Two-Segment Reporting Structure

In a filing made in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Great Elm Group recast its historical segment financial information for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025 to reflect a new reporting structure built around two segments—Alternative Credit and Real Estate—following the formation of Great Elm Real Estate Ventures, LLC. The move, which does not amend or restate previously issued audited financial statements, is intended to align reported results with how management now evaluates performance and allocates capital across its credit and industrial outdoor storage real estate strategies, offering investors a clearer view of the company’s operating performance by investment strategy without signaling any post‑June 2025 operational changes or new financial commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEG) stock is a Hold with a $2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Great Elm Group stock, see the GEG Stock Forecast page.