XPS Pensions Group Plc (XPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £753.58M
• Dividend Yield: 2.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 577.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 16.66%
• EPS Growth: -44.06%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 1,712
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Personal Products & Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 208,355,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 333,605
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 577,767
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £448.25
• Price Target Upside: 22.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: 409.00p ▲(12.05% Upside)

XPS Pensions Group Plc's overall stock score is driven by strong corporate events and solid financial performance, despite challenges in profitability and cash flow. The technical analysis shows a neutral trend, and the valuation indicates the stock may be overvalued. The positive corporate events, including strategic expansions and increased institutional interest, are significant strengths.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

XPS Group's revenues grew 18% year-over-year, with Advisory revenues up 10%, Administration revenues up 30%.

Market Demand

Demand is high across the business, driven by regulatory changes, new client wins, and continued market share gains, supported by the group's market-leading service offering.

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition of Polaris is expected to be immediately earnings enhancing, leading to an increase in future earnings estimates.

Negative Factors

Market Saturation

The insurance consulting market is large, with significant potential for future growth, providing opportunities for XPS to expand, yet the market remains fragmented.

Valuation Concerns

The valuation of XPS is starting to get relatively full, but further upside is seen from ongoing earnings upgrades and potential new projects.

XPS Pensions Group Plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

XPS Pensions Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides employee benefit consultancy and related business services in the United Kingdom. The company offers advisory services to pension schemes and corporate sponsors; independent investment advisory services; DB and DC master trust schemes; and self-invested personal pension (SIPP) and SSAS pension services. It also provides administer services, such as scheme administration, outsourcing and member communication, scam identification and protection, payroll, pension scheme accounting, de-risking projects, technical consultancy, GMP equalization, data audits and cleansing, trustee secretarial, and pension management services. The company was formerly known as Xafinity Plc and changed its name to XPS Pensions Group Plc in May 2018. XPS Pensions Group plc was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Reading, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

XPS generates revenue through various streams primarily derived from its consulting and administration services. The company charges fees for actuarial services, which include valuation and risk assessment of pension schemes. Additionally, it earns income from investment advisory services, helping clients manage their portfolios and optimize investment returns. Pension administration services also contribute significantly to revenue, as XPS manages the day-to-day operations of pension schemes for clients. Furthermore, XPS may have partnerships with financial institutions or technology providers that enhance its service offerings, thus creating additional revenue opportunities. The company’s consistent focus on expanding its client base and enhancing service efficiency plays a crucial role in its overall earnings.

XPS Pensions Group Plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

XPS Pensions Group Plc shows strong revenue growth and solid gross profit margins, but declining net profit margins and reduced operational efficiency are concerns. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a stable equity ratio, but declining return on equity. Cash flow metrics indicate potential liquidity issues with negative free cash flow growth. Overall, the company is financially stable but faces challenges in maintaining profitability and cash flow.

Income Statement

XPS Pensions Group Plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable 6.16% increase in the latest period. The gross profit margin is strong at 53.03%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased from 27.16% to 13.09%, suggesting increased expenses or other financial pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.37, indicating a moderate level of leverage, which is still manageable. Return on equity has decreased from 29.14% to 16.37%, suggesting reduced profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased slightly, and free cash flow growth is negative at -29.47%, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.80, showing a reasonable conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.80, but the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	231.78M	231.78M	199.43M	166.79M	138.62M	127.93M
Gross Profit	122.92M	122.92M	104.01M	65.36M	55.56M	49.93M
EBITDA	60.51M	57.26M	79.27M	37.79M	30.26M	27.09M
Net Income	30.34M	30.34M	54.17M	15.84M	9.42M	8.96M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	323.48M	323.48M	281.87M	283.76M	271.65M	266.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.72M	14.72M	10.01M	13.29M	10.15M	8.62M
Total Debt	68.97M	68.97M	32.55M	77.25M	74.99M	70.95M
Total Liabilities	138.07M	138.07M	96.01M	134.48M	127.22M	116.95M
Stockholders Equity	185.41M	185.41M	185.85M	149.28M	144.44M	149.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	38.38M	33.63M	35.42M	26.13M	18.10M	26.42M
Operating Cash Flow	40.48M	41.82M	42.93M	31.58M	27.44M	29.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.96M	-21.86M	29.17M	-13.76M	-9.37M	-3.61M
Financing Cash Flow	-12.94M	-15.25M	-75.39M	-14.69M	-16.54M	-31.52M

XPS Pensions Group Plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 365.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:XPS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 365 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 372.25, below the 50-day MA of 374.25, and below the 200-day MA of 367.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:XPS.

XPS Pensions Group Plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MER	74 Outperform	£304.71M	6.33	25.63%	3.08%	-2.79%	37.33%
XPS	69 Neutral	£753.58M	24.83	16.35%	2.93%	16.66%	-44.06%
Sector *	67 Neutral	¥279.70B	15.11	6.81%	2.50%	5.05%	-21.29%

XPS Pensions Group Plc Corporate Events

XPS Pensions Group Executives Sell Shares, Maintain Strong Holdings

XPS Pensions Group announced that its Co-Chief Executive Officers, Paul Cuff and Ben Bramhall, sold a significant number of ordinary shares on 21 July 2025, while still maintaining substantial holdings in the company. This transaction is part of their ongoing management of personal investments and does not affect their commitment to the company, as they continue to hold a large percentage of their salaries in shares and unvested options. The sale was conducted on the London Stock Exchange, and the company remains focused on its core operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Executives Exercise Share Options, Aligning Interests with Shareholders

XPS Pensions Group announced that its top executives, including Co-CEOs Paul Cuff and Ben Bramhall, and CFO Snehal Shah, exercised options to acquire ordinary shares under the company’s Performance Share Plan. Following the acquisition, they sold a portion of these shares to cover tax liabilities. This transaction, conducted under the UK Market Abuse Regulation, highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management interests with shareholder value. Such moves are significant for stakeholders as they reflect confidence in the company’s future prospects and financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Increases Stake in XPS Pensions Group

XPS Pensions Group Plc has announced a change in its major holdings, with BlackRock, Inc. increasing its voting rights in the company. As of July 8, 2025, BlackRock’s total voting rights in XPS Pensions Group have risen to 12.25%, up from a previous 12.05%. This adjustment in holdings reflects BlackRock’s strategic positioning within the company, potentially impacting XPS Pensions Group’s governance and decision-making processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Releases 2024/25 Annual Report and AGM Notice

XPS Pensions Group Plc has published its Annual Report & Accounts for the financial year ending 31 March 2025, along with the Notice of the 2025 Annual General Meeting. These documents are available online and have been distributed to shareholders, with the AGM scheduled for 4 September 2025. This announcement is a routine part of the company’s corporate governance, ensuring transparency and engagement with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.59 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Increases Stake in XPS Pensions Group to 12.05%

XPS Pensions Group Plc has announced a change in major holdings, with BlackRock, Inc. increasing its voting rights in the company to 12.05% as of July 3, 2025. This acquisition of voting rights signifies a strategic move by BlackRock, potentially impacting XPS Pensions Group’s governance and decision-making processes, and indicating confidence in the company’s market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Grants Performance-Based Awards to Executives

XPS Pensions Group Plc announced the granting of awards under its Performance Share Plan (PSP) and Deferred Share Bonus Plan (DSBP) to key executives, including Co-CEOs Ben Bramhall and Paul Cuff, and CFO Snehal Shah. These awards, linked to performance targets such as earnings per share growth and CO2 emissions reduction, aim to align executive incentives with company performance and sustainability goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Increases Stake in XPS Pensions Group

BlackRock, Inc. has increased its stake in XPS Pensions Group PLC, crossing a significant threshold of 11% in voting rights. This acquisition highlights BlackRock’s strategic interest in the UK pensions sector, potentially impacting XPS’s market positioning and signaling confidence in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Announces Change in Major Shareholder Voting Rights

XPS Pensions Group Plc has announced a change in the voting rights held by Montanaro Asset Management Limited, which has increased its stake to 4.04% from a previous 3.998%. This adjustment in holdings reflects a minor shift in the company’s shareholder structure, potentially impacting future voting outcomes and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £4.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Announces Leadership Transition

XPS Pensions Group Plc announced a leadership transition as Alan Bannatyne, the Independent Non-Executive Chairman, will step down following the company’s Annual General Meeting in September 2025, in line with the Group’s succession plan. Martin Sutherland, a Non-Executive Director since December 2023, will succeed him. This change comes as part of a broader strategy to maintain compliance with the UK Corporate Governance Code. The company has seen significant growth since its listing on the London Stock Exchange in 2017, expanding from 400 to 1,900 employees and becoming a FTSE 250 company. The leadership transition is expected to continue driving the company’s growth and capitalize on future opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £3.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Reports Strong FY 2025 Results and Strategic Expansion

XPS Pensions Group Plc reported strong financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with an 18% increase in revenue excluding the National Pensions Trust (NPT) and a 27% rise in adjusted EBITDA. The company achieved growth across various segments, with administration revenues up 30% and actuarial and consulting revenues increasing by 14%. The acquisition of Polaris Actuaries and Consultants Limited further strengthens XPS’s position in the insurance consultancy market. The company is optimistic about future growth, driven by market and regulatory changes, and aims to expand its addressable market to £4 billion by diversifying into the insurance consulting sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £3.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Plc Announces Change in Major Shareholding

XPS Pensions Group Plc has announced a change in the voting rights held by Aberdeen Group plc, which now holds 10.948025% of the voting rights in the company. This adjustment in shareholding reflects a decrease from the previous position of 11.921442%, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder dynamics and voting power distribution.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £3.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group to Present Full-Year Results for 2025

XPS Pensions Group announced it will host a presentation for analysts and registered professionals to discuss its full-year results for the year ending 31 March 2025. The presentation will take place on 19 June 2025 at the London Stock Exchange, with options for in-person and virtual attendance. This event underscores XPS’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £3.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.

XPS Pensions Group Plc Announces Change in Shareholder Voting Rights

XPS Pensions Group Plc announced a change in the voting rights held by Montanaro Asset Management Limited, which now holds 3.998% of the company’s voting rights, down from 4.110%. This adjustment in holdings may influence the company’s shareholder dynamics and could impact future decision-making processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:XPS) stock is a Buy with a £3.32 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on XPS Pensions Group Plc stock, see the GB:XPS Stock Forecast page.