Strong Project Economics — Phalaborwa
Phalaborwa projected to generate ~$181M EBITDA per annum (based on Dec 2024 spot NdPr at $110/kg) with ~16-year life, low CapEx of ~US$320M, and very high margins; management notes NdPr traded at ~$140/kg earlier in 2026 (~27% above the $110/kg used in the model), implying upside to EBITDA.
Robust Economics — Uberaba (Brazil)
Uberaba economic assessment (published recently) shows NPV (10%) ~US$1B, IRR >45%, ~US$217M EBITDA per annum, EBITDA margin >70%, CapEx ~US$280M and >30-year project life; ore grade ~5,100 ppm TREO (vs Phalaborwa ~4,400 ppm).
Low Capital Intensity and High Margins
Both projects are positioned as low CapEx, high-margin rare earth producers (company cites Argus Media ranking as highest-margin rare earth project in development at 2024 pricing) and management expects to be among the lowest cost separated rare earth producers in the West, possibly below Chinese costs.
Pilot Plant and Process Development Success
Large-scale continuous pilot at Mintek/South Africa running 24/7 produces ~1 kg/day of mixed rare earth hydroxide (commercial-scale intermediate rather than grams typical for pilots); continuous ion exchange (CIX) stage successfully reduces downstream volumetric flows from ~340 m3/h to ~40–50 m3/h and final feed to SX ~3–4 m3/h.
Operational Efficiencies and Technical Improvements
Front-end optimizations reduced leach stages from three to two and by increasing leach temperature cut resin residence time from 32 hours to 8 hours (75% reduction), lowering tankage, steel and earthworks and helping contain CapEx within published ranges.
Strategic Partnerships, Funding and Support
Support from U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) with commitment of US$50M project equity at FID, strategic partner Mosaic for Uberaba (Rainbow holds 49% with no cash outlay for IP contribution), supportive investor TechMet and new investor Traxys; recent capital raise of US$14.6M at 20p, ~90% from U.S. investors.
Financial Runway and Cost Discipline
Current cash burn ~US$400k/month, the US$14.6M raise provides ~35 months of runway at current burn; management expects DFS completion by end-2026 and estimates remaining DFS/EIA/permitting costs for Phalaborwa at ~US$4–4.5M.
Environmental and ESG Advantages
Projects recover rare earths from phosphogypsum waste (brownfield sites, no displacement of communities, stack remediation and lined stack reclamation planned), offering environmental cleanup value and lower conventional mining/environmental footprint.