PageGroup (PAGE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £644.91M
• Dividend Yield: 7.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 643.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 53.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.41
• Revenue Growth: -12.54%
• EPS Growth: -76.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,361
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Staffing & Employment Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 328,618,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 802,367
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 643,341
• PEG Ratio: -0.61
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £265.83
• Price Target Upside: 13.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: 215.00p ▼(-7.96% Downside)

PageGroup's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance, which shows challenges with declining revenue and profitability margins. Technical analysis and valuation present mixed signals, with short-term bullishness but concerns over long-term trends and high valuation. The earnings call highlights both challenges and potential recovery opportunities, particularly in strategic initiatives and the U.S. market.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Robust operating cash conversion (OCF to net income 4.45x) and stable free cash flow provide durable liquidity. This supports dividends, funds strategic investments (AI, transformation) and reduces refinancing risk, enabling the group to execute multi-quarter turnaround plans.

Diversified global recruitment model

A multi-brand, multi-geography model serving permanent and contract staffing across sectors creates recurring client relationships and spreads demand risk. This structural diversification supports resilience versus single-market cycles and helps capture secular talent-acquisition spending.

Productivity gains from AI and enterprise growth

AI-driven sourcing and rising Enterprise Solutions demand materially improve recruiter productivity and client stickiness. Durable efficiency gains lower customer acquisition costs, improve fill rates and can sustainably enhance gross-to-net conversion as digital tools scale across regions.

Negative Factors

Material revenue and margin decline

A sustained top-line contraction (-13.5%) and collapsing net margin (1.6%) weaken the firm’s ability to reinvest and restore competitiveness. If demand recovery is slow, persistent margin compression will constrain EBITDA generation and long-term returns to shareholders.

Operating profit collapse and restructuring headwinds

A sharp operating profit decline demonstrates weak conversion of gross profit to operating earnings and highlights reliance on one-off adjustments. This reduces room for strategic investment, increases reliance on cost restructuring, and makes sustained margin recovery harder over multiple quarters.

Moderate leverage and declining equity base

Rising leverage (D/E ~0.52) alongside declining net assets and lower ROE weakens balance sheet flexibility. Over a multi-quarter horizon this limits capacity for M&A, increases sensitivity to operational shocks, and could force more conservative capital allocation or higher funding costs.

PageGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PageGroup plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides recruitment consultancy and other ancillary services in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. The company offers executive search services under the Page Executive brand; recruitment services for qualified professional on permanent, temporary, and contract or interim basis under the Michael Page brand; recruitment services to organizations requiring permanent employees and temporary or contract staff at technical and administrative support, professional clerical, and junior management levels under the Page Personnel brand; and flexible recruitment outsourcing services under the Page Outsourcing brand. It also provides assessment, consulting, and talent services under the Page Assessment, Page Consulting, and Page Talent supplementary brands. The company was formerly known as Michael Page International plc and changed its name to PageGroup plc in June 2016. PageGroup plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Addlestone, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

PageGroup generates revenue primarily through fees charged for its recruitment services. The company operates on a contingency fee model, where it earns a commission once a candidate is successfully placed in a role. This commission is typically a percentage of the candidate's first-year salary. Additionally, PageGroup offers contract staffing services, which provide a steady income stream through billable hours. The company benefits from strong relationships with clients across various industries, enabling it to secure repeat business and maintain a robust pipeline of job placements. Furthermore, PageGroup's international reach allows it to tap into diverse markets, contributing to its revenue growth. Collaborations with various businesses and organizations further enhance its service offerings and revenue potential.

PageGroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PageGroup's financial performance in 2024 shows challenges with declining revenue and profitability margins, impacting its income statement. The balance sheet indicates a prudent use of leverage, but declining equity and returns could affect long-term stability. Strong cash flow management remains a highlight, ensuring liquidity and operational flexibility. Continued focus on improving profitability and managing costs will be crucial for future growth.

Income Statement

PageGroup experienced a revenue decrease from 2023 to 2024, with a revenue growth of -13.5%. Gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 48.5%, indicating efficient cost management. However, net profit margin for 2024 declined significantly to 1.6%, suggesting increased operational costs or other expenses impacting profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also decreased, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio increased to 0.52 in 2024, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity decreased to 10.8%, showing reduced profitability relative to shareholder investments. The equity ratio of 40.4% suggests a balanced approach to financing, though a declining trend in equity could pose future risks.

Cash Flow

PageGroup maintained strong operating cash flows in 2024, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.45, indicating robust cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow remained stable, though there was a slight decline in free cash flow from 2023. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 3.9 reflects strong cash flow management despite profit declines.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.64B	1.74B	2.01B	1.99B	1.64B	1.30B
Gross Profit	788.10M	842.59M	1.01B	1.08B	877.72M	610.25M
EBITDA	88.01M	117.54M	187.83M	257.77M	222.53M	79.40M
Net Income	11.81M	28.44M	77.07M	139.01M	118.36M	-5.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	615.25M	650.10M	704.57M	794.94M	724.46M	629.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	33.84M	95.35M	90.14M	131.48M	153.98M	165.99M
Total Debt	165.91M	136.79M	110.93M	109.83M	102.34M	103.47M
Total Liabilities	398.26M	387.69M	398.09M	442.74M	384.35M	313.93M
Stockholders Equity	216.99M	262.41M	306.49M	352.20M	340.11M	315.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	61.34M	110.99M	121.63M	152.99M	120.32M	114.72M
Operating Cash Flow	76.00M	126.66M	153.01M	184.66M	148.69M	137.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-15.62M	-13.73M	-28.56M	-29.59M	-25.73M	-21.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-81.98M	-106.09M	-156.76M	-183.53M	-131.19M	-53.22M

PageGroup Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 233.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:PAGE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 233.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 214.10, above the 50-day MA of 225.07, and below the 200-day MA of 242.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:PAGE.

PageGroup Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GATC	71 Outperform	£37.03M	16.48	6.45%	3.35%	2.40%	1101.69%
STEM	69 Neutral	£242.66M	13.94	12.99%	6.35%	-13.93%	-48.74%
STAF	66 Neutral	£58.50M	15.41	44.68%	―	1.44%	―
PAGE	64 Neutral	£644.91M	53.88	4.81%	7.58%	-12.54%	-76.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RWA	53 Neutral	£82.88M	-5.56	-11.22%	12.88%	-14.31%	-361.93%
HAS	46 Neutral	£744.24M	-93.76	-1.52%	1.76%	-4.92%	-58.06%

PageGroup Corporate Events

PageGroup Holds Profit Guidance as US and Asia Offset Weak Europe and UK

PageGroup reported a 4.6% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 gross profit at constant currency to £190.7m, reflecting subdued client and candidate confidence and prolonged hiring cycles, particularly in Europe and the UK. While EMEA and the UK saw double‑digit full-year gross profit declines, the group delivered growth in the US for a fifth consecutive quarter and in Asia for a third, with Greater China returning to growth for the first time since 2022; overall, permanent recruitment slightly outperformed temporary in Q4 due to tougher comparatives. Management completed a cost optimisation programme that cut 2025 costs by about £5m and is expected to yield around £15m in annualised savings from 2026, while fee earner headcount was trimmed 1.5% in the quarter but productivity per consultant rose 3%. The Board expects full‑year 2025 operating profit to be broadly in line with market consensus at £21.1m, and the company emphasised its strong balance sheet, diversified geographic exposure and ongoing technology investments as it reallocates resources toward higher‑growth markets and seeks to protect margins amid an uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAGE) stock is a Sell with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PageGroup stock, see the GB:PAGE Stock Forecast page.

PageGroup Holds Profit Guidance as US and Asia Offset Weak Europe and UK

PageGroup reported a 4.6% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter 2025 gross profit at constant currency to £190.7m, reflecting subdued client and candidate confidence and prolonged hiring cycles, particularly in Europe and the UK. While EMEA and the UK saw double‑digit full-year gross profit declines, the group delivered growth in the US for a fifth consecutive quarter and in Asia for a third, with Greater China returning to growth for the first time since 2022; overall, permanent recruitment slightly outperformed temporary in Q4 due to tougher comparatives. Management completed a cost optimisation programme that cut 2025 costs by about £5m and is expected to yield around £15m in annualised savings from 2026, while fee earner headcount was trimmed 1.5% in the quarter but productivity per consultant rose 3%. The Board expects full‑year 2025 operating profit to be broadly in line with market consensus at £21.1m, and the company emphasised its strong balance sheet, diversified geographic exposure and ongoing technology investments as it reallocates resources toward higher‑growth markets and seeks to protect margins amid an uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAGE) stock is a Sell with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PageGroup stock, see the GB:PAGE Stock Forecast page.

PageGroup Sets Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Trading Update

PageGroup plc has announced it will publish its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 trading update at 7:00 a.m. on 13 January 2026, followed by an analyst and investor conference call with an online slide presentation at 8:30 a.m. the same day. The trading update and accompanying presentation will provide stakeholders with detailed insight into the group’s recent financial and operational performance, and the scheduled call underlines the company’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market and engage closely with its investor base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:PAGE) stock is a Sell with a £200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PageGroup stock, see the GB:PAGE Stock Forecast page.