LPA Group plc (LPA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £6.28M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.44
• Revenue Growth: -10.88%
• EPS Growth: -122.05%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 140
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Electrical Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 13,513,229
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,738
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,356
• PEG Ratio: -2.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.27
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £27.00M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: 48.00 p ▲(31.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/10/26

The score is held down primarily by weakening fundamentals—losses in 2024–2025 and a sharp swing to negative operating and free cash flow in 2025—despite a relatively strong, low-leverage balance sheet and solid revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and a positive MACD, but an extremely high RSI signals elevated pullback risk. Valuation remains constrained because the company is loss-making (negative P/E) and no dividend yield is provided.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth trend

Sustained top-line growth across 2024–2025 implies expanding customer wins and demand for engineered transport and aerospace products. Durable revenue increases improve forward visibility on backlog and aftermarket spares, supporting medium-term operational scale and investment planning.

Conservative balance sheet

Low-to-moderate leverage and a steadily building equity base provide financial flexibility to fund working capital, absorb shocks, and pursue certified product programmes. This capital structure supports long product lifecycles and mitigates refinancing pressure over the next several quarters.

Safety-critical niche & aftermarket

Serving regulated, safety-critical transport and aerospace niches creates higher switching costs and recurring aftermarket demand. Long lifecycles plus through-life support generate repeat spares and service revenue, underpinning more predictable mid-term cash flows and customer stickiness.

Negative Factors

Profitability deterioration

A shift from profit to losses reduces internal funding for R&D and capital projects and weakens return metrics. If margins do not recover, the company may need structural cost realignment or outside capital, raising execution risk over the coming 2–6 months.

Negative operating & free cash flow

A switch to negative OCF and FCF increases liquidity pressure and heightens reliance on external financing or working-capital management. Sustained weak cash conversion can constrain investment in certified product development and strain supplier relationships over the medium term.

Rising debt and negative returns

Although leverage remains moderate, rising debt paired with negative ROE signals deteriorating capital efficiency. Continued debt increases with losses could elevate interest costs and reduce capacity to finance growth without diluting shareholders or refinancing, a structural concern if trends persist.

LPA Group plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

LPA Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and market industrial electrical and electronic products for rail, aerospace and defense, aircraft ground power, infrastructure, marine, and industrial markets primarily in the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally. It offers aircraft ground power supply equipment, such as connectors, aircraft socket assembly kits, cable assemblies, load banks, cable/plug test box, gateway aircraft plug, power analyzers, flanged plugs and sockets, lanyard assemblies, aircraft connectors, plane power crocodile cable carriers, flanged receptacle, and junction sleeves; magnetic proximity sensors; enclosures, panels and looms, and power outlets; circuit breakers; rectangular, filter, push-pull, hermetic, power, and circular connectors; in line cable splices and terminal junction modules; and contactors. The company also provides door switches; fans; fluorescent lighting for rail vehicles; hydraulic and pneumatic pipe clamps; LED lighting products; fire resistant connectors, flanged sockets, and guard ring plugs; and bespoke assemblies and cable harnesses, conduit boxes, appliance inlet, column power sockets, fire resistant connection boxes, marine plugs and sockets, trailing sockets, and saddle clamps. In addition, it offers passenger seat electronics and lighting kits; earth studs and straps, plugs and sockets, and terminal rails products; battery rafts, control boxes, and shore supplies; connector system, connector plug and receptacles, ethernet communication harness, mixed power and communication harness, and power harness; train jumper and refurbishment; relays; sockets for hermetically sealed relays; USB charging; and wiring accessories. In addition, it offers electronics design and manufacturing services. The company also exports its products to approximately 50 countries. LPA Group Plc was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Saffron Walden, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

LPA Group plc makes money by selling engineered products and related services to customers in its target end markets, with revenues typically generated from (i) manufacture and sale of transport/rail products (such as lighting and other onboard/infrastructure electronic systems supplied to train manufacturers, operators, and integrators), (ii) manufacture and sale of aerospace and defense/industrial products where it supplies specialist components and assemblies to OEMs and tier suppliers, and (iii) aftermarket/through-life support where applicable (e.g., spares, repairs, refurbishment, and service work tied to installed equipment). Earnings are influenced by project/order intake from OEM and operator programs, the mix of new-build versus retrofit/upgrade work, long product lifecycles that can support repeat orders and spares, and the company’s ability to deliver certified, compliant products for regulated environments. Specific information on material partnerships, customer concentration, or segment revenue splits is null.

LPA Group plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid revenue growth (+15.8% in 2025 after +8.4% in 2024) and a conservatively financed balance sheet (low-to-moderate leverage) are positives, but profitability has turned negative in 2024–2025 and cash flow deteriorated sharply in 2025 with negative operating and free cash flow, raising near-term execution and funding-pressure risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over the last several years, including +15.8% in 2025 (annual) after +8.4% in 2024, signaling solid demand. However, profitability has deteriorated meaningfully: net income was positive in 2022–2023 but turned negative in 2024 and 2025, with 2025 showing negative operating profit and a slightly negative net margin. Gross margin has been relatively steady (~22–23%), suggesting the key issue is higher operating costs/overheads rather than core pricing alone.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed, with low-to-moderate leverage (debt-to-equity around 0.17–0.22 in 2024–2025) and equity steadily building over time. Total debt has risen versus 2022–2023, but remains manageable relative to the equity base. The main weakness is returns: return on equity is negative in 2024–2025 due to losses, which reduces the benefit of an otherwise healthy capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been volatile. 2024 produced positive operating cash flow and slightly positive free cash flow, but 2025 swung to negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow, increasing near-term funding pressure if the pattern persists. While free cash flow was roughly in line with net income in 2025 (both negative), the year-to-year swing suggests working-capital and/or investment timing risk and weaker cash conversion consistency.

Breakdown	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.55M	23.55M	21.71M	19.32M	18.27M
Gross Profit	4.76M	5.48M	4.91M	4.40M	3.71M
EBITDA	900.00K	685.00K	1.79M	1.96M	567.00K
Net Income	-349.00K	-325.00K	859.00K	1.19M	-22.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.19M	25.60M	23.03M	22.06M	22.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	715.00K	1.20M	2.20M	1.36M
Total Debt	3.44M	2.83M	2.41M	2.72M	2.99M
Total Liabilities	10.20M	9.37M	7.31M	7.30M	7.89M
Stockholders Equity	15.99M	16.23M	15.71M	14.76M	13.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.06M	108.00K	89.00K	-174.00K	906.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-986.00K	1.25M	285.00K	77.00K	1.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-172.00K	-1.65M	-566.00K	1.42M	-283.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-363.00K	-92.00K	-716.00K	-651.00K	-393.00K

LPA Group plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 36.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:LPA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.45, below the 50-day MA of 52.39, and below the 200-day MA of 48.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:LPA.

LPA Group plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLX	75 Outperform	£785.13M	7.96	15.54%	1.11%	8.20%	25.85%
LUCE	69 Neutral	£251.84M	8.70	15.22%	3.92%	18.90%	-20.79%
TFW	64 Neutral	£276.02M	8.85	13.87%	2.58%	-0.33%	4.58%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
DIA	63 Neutral	£115.82M	-3.44	15.77%	―	-5.73%	―
XPP	56 Neutral	£378.16M	-21.41	-6.50%	―	-18.43%	24.86%
LPA	50 Neutral	£6.28M	-9.55	-2.20%	―	-10.88%	-122.05%

LPA Group plc Corporate Events

LPA Group Awards Long-Term Share Options to Senior Leadership

LPA Group plc has granted share options over 300,000 ordinary shares under its 2023 Performance Share Plan to four senior executives, including the CEO and CFO, at an exercise price of 56p. The awards are scheduled to become exercisable from March 2029, followed by a one-year holding period, and are subject to clawback and malus provisions.

The company expects its Employee Benefits Trust to satisfy the options on exercise, with new shares to be issued only if required. The move further aligns management incentives with long-term shareholder value and underscores the company’s focus on retention and performance in a specialist engineering market where experienced leadership is critical.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:LPA) stock is a Hold with a £57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LPA Group plc stock, see the GB:LPA Stock Forecast page.

LPA Group CEO Increases Stake with On-Market Share Purchase

LPA Group plc reported that Chief Executive Officer Philo Daniel-Tran acquired 46,029 ordinary shares in the company at 55 pence per share on 5 February 2026 via an on-market purchase. Following this transaction, Daniel-Tran’s total beneficial holding has risen to 87,029 ordinary shares, representing about 0.64% of LPA’s issued share capital.

The increased personal investment by the CEO marginally boosts insider ownership and may be interpreted by investors as a sign of confidence in the company’s prospects. While the stake remains relatively small in percentage terms, the move underscores management’s alignment with shareholders at a time when engineering and transport-focused businesses are navigating evolving market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:LPA) stock is a Hold with a £47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LPA Group plc stock, see the GB:LPA Stock Forecast page.

LPA Group Plans Investor Webinar Ahead of Full-Year Results

The company scheduled CEO Philo Daniel-Tran and CFO Stuart Stanyard to host a live investor webinar on 18 February 2026 via Investor Meet Company, giving shareholders a chance to engage on full-year results and submit questions in advance or during the session, reinforcing transparency ahead of its financial update.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:LPA) stock is a Hold with a £47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LPA Group plc stock, see the GB:LPA Stock Forecast page.

LPA Group Restructures, Diversifies and Refinances as Order Book Grows Despite Annual Loss

LPA Group reported a challenging year to 30 September 2025 with revenue declining to £21.5m and a slightly higher pre-tax loss of £0.6m, alongside a rise in gearing to 21.5%. Despite the weak headline numbers and negative adjusted EBITDA, the company secured £28.8m of new orders, expanded its order book to £32.5m, and saw aviation, aerospace and defence grow to 28% of revenue, reflecting deliberate diversification away from heavy reliance on rail and large rail projects.

Operationally, the Group underwent a major restructuring under new CEO Philo Daniel‑Tran, abolishing its divisional structure in favour of a unified “One LPA” model, refreshing its executive team, investing in a new ERP system and concentrating management resources on sales, customer service and factory efficiency. The successful acquisition and integration of Eaton’s Powertron (Martek) power supply business broadened the product portfolio and supports the strategy of building standard product lines, while a new three‑year revolving credit and invoice discounting facility with Arbuthnot provides around £2m in additional headroom to fund growth and ease liquidity pressures. Management reports that these changes have already yielded an early return to profitability in the first quarter of the new financial year, underpinning a more optimistic outlook for 2026 and improving visibility for stakeholders as the company seeks to strengthen its market position in aerospace and defence while maintaining core rail projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:LPA) stock is a Hold with a £55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LPA Group plc stock, see the GB:LPA Stock Forecast page.

LPA Group Secures £8.75m Refinancing to Support Growth Plans

LPA Group plc has refinanced its banking arrangements with a new up to £8.75 million revolving credit facility from Arbuthnot Commercial Asset Based Lending, secured on property and receivables and running for a minimum of three years. The new facility replaces existing loans and overdrafts while broadly maintaining previous pricing, and is expected to provide additional working capital and headroom to support the Group’s growth plans, with the chairman highlighting a strong start to the new financial year and an upcoming preliminary results announcement for the year to 30 September 2025 by 30 January 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:LPA) stock is a Sell with a £40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on LPA Group plc stock, see the GB:LPA Stock Forecast page.