Intermediate Capital (ICG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £4.79B
• Dividend Yield: 4.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: 28.34%
• EPS Growth: 44.04%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 635
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.02
• Shares Outstanding: 290,640,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,412,922
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,020,981
• PEG Ratio: -2.57
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.67
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,609.50
• Price Target Upside: 53.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: 1,797.00p ▲(5.96% Upside)

The score is anchored by solid underlying financial results and a constructive earnings-call outlook, supported by an attractive P/E and dividend yield. These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and strongly negative momentum) and cash flow deterioration highlighted in the financial statement analysis.

Positive Factors

AUM and Fundraising Growth

Sustained AUM growth and strong fundraising increase recurring management fee visibility and economies of scale. Growing AUM diversifies asset pools and supports fee income durability over the next 2-6 months, improving cash generation potential and competitive positioning.

10-year Amundi Strategic Partnership

A decade-long distribution tie-up with a major asset manager materially expands private wealth channels and aligns a strategic partner via economic interest. This structural distribution boost supports durable product reach, sticky capital, and diversified fee sources over the medium term.

Shift to Higher-Return Strategies and Fee Momentum

Higher-return strategies now form a majority of fee-earning AUM, driving higher management fees and improving revenue quality. A sustained shift in product mix supports margin sustainability and recurring fee growth, strengthening long-term cash generation and profitability.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Persistently high debt-to-equity raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, limiting balance sheet flexibility for opportunistic investments or capital returns. Even with slight improvement, elevated leverage increases downside risk if credit conditions tighten over the next several months.

Historic Cash-Flow Weakness

Large declines in operating and free cash flow signal potential earnings quality and liquidity constraints. Weak cash conversion can impair the firm's ability to fund balance-sheet investments, pay performance-related distributions, or sustain buy-and-build activity in a tighter capital market.

Challenging Fundraising & Market Headwinds

A prolonged industry-wide fundraising slowdown and a slow buyout market reduce new capital inflows and deal flow, pressuring fee growth and performance fees. This structural headwind can constrain AUM expansion and elevate competition for attractive investments over the medium term.

Intermediate Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ICG Plc engages in the provision of flexible capital solutions to help companies develop and grow. It is a global alternative asset manager with over 30 years' history, investing across the capital structure. It operates through the Fund Management Company (FMC) and Investment Company (IC) segments. The FMC segment offers investment management services and incurs the majority of the group’s costs in delivering these services. The IC segment recognizes the fair value movement on any hedging derivatives. The company was founded by Andrew Jackson, Thomas Hugh Bartlam, Jean-Loup Brousse de Gersigny, James Odgers, Andrew Coventon Phillips, and Paul J. Piper on March 23, 1988 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

ICG generates revenue through various streams including management fees, performance fees, and interest income from its investment activities. Management fees are charged to clients for the oversight and administration of investment funds, while performance fees are earned based on the returns generated for investors above a specified benchmark. Additionally, ICG earns interest income from the loans it provides to companies, which forms a significant part of its private debt operations. The company's strong relationships with institutional investors and strategic partnerships with financial institutions also contribute to its ability to raise capital and expand its investment portfolio, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Intermediate Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (78) is supported by 14.5% revenue growth and very high gross margin (96%), but profitability margins are edging down. Balance sheet is solid but not without risk (70) given still-high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.45) and lower ROE (18.1%). Cash flow is the main drag (65) with significant declines in operating and free cash flow, raising liquidity/quality-of-earnings concerns despite a strong FCF-to-net income ratio.

Income Statement

Intermediate Capital has shown strong revenue growth of 14.5% in the latest year, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin remains high at 96%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 45.6% from 48.2% the previous year, suggesting some pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, though they have seen a slight decline, which could indicate rising operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved slightly to 2.45 from 2.66, indicating better leverage management, but it remains relatively high, posing a potential risk. Return on equity has decreased to 18.1% from 20.6%, reflecting reduced profitability on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased significantly, impacting the operating cash flow to net income ratio, which is now at 0.25. Free cash flow has also declined by 71.7%, indicating potential liquidity challenges. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 95.2%, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.12B	990.40M	599.00M	981.70M	989.50M	672.40M
Gross Profit	547.10M	951.40M	579.10M	963.70M	934.70M	656.80M
EBITDA	756.80M	548.30M	0.00	598.70M	637.10M	585.30M
Net Income	596.00M	451.20M	280.60M	473.40M	526.80M	457.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.95B	9.34B	9.05B	9.12B	8.87B	7.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.25B	604.80M	550.00M	990.00M	761.50M	296.90M
Total Debt	6.77B	6.11B	6.11B	6.13B	6.02B	5.20B
Total Liabilities	7.34B	6.85B	7.01B	6.82B	6.87B	5.84B
Stockholders Equity	2.61B	2.49B	2.02B	2.30B	1.97B	1.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	33.40M	129.50M	280.40M	246.40M	235.60M	100.20M
Operating Cash Flow	33.80M	136.10M	291.60M	255.90M	243.40M	111.00M
Investing Cash Flow	814.50M	276.10M	130.80M	71.50M	45.50M	64.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-425.70M	-524.60M	-476.70M	-282.50M	111.30M	-653.30M

Intermediate Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1696.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ICG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1696 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1930.90, below the 50-day MA of 2001.74, and below the 200-day MA of 2017.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -81.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.78 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:ICG.

Intermediate Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABDN	78 Outperform	£3.90B	12.24	6.50%	7.21%	-7.11%	0.45%
III	78 Outperform	£34.17B	5.00	25.05%	2.44%	62.80%	48.86%
SDR	77 Outperform	£7.15B	20.01	8.30%	5.37%	4.78%	-4.86%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ICG	67 Neutral	£4.79B	7.96	24.36%	4.13%	28.34%	44.04%
MNG	61 Neutral	£7.36B	-126.06	-1.53%	7.09%	9.86%	-134.41%
BPT	54 Neutral	£2.24B	37.15	6.88%	2.85%	62.91%	-15.13%

Intermediate Capital Corporate Events

ICG Posts Q3 Fee-Earning AUM Growth and Bolsters Balance Sheet Strength

ICG reported a solid third quarter to 31 December 2025, with fee-earning assets under management rising 1% in the period and 11% year-on-year to $85bn, within total AUM of $127bn. The group raised $4.4bn in new capital, driven by flagship strategies including Europe IX, Metropolitan II and LP Secondaries II, and maintained a substantial $36bn of dry powder, of which $19bn is not yet earning fees. Transaction activity showed a modest recovery across asset classes, contributing to a positive total balance sheet return at both quarterly and year-to-date levels. Liquidity remained strong at £1.4bn and net financial debt fell to £239m from £401m, reinforcing balance sheet resilience as ICG continues to deploy capital selectively while expanding its fee base across structured capital, secondaries, real assets and private debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ICG) stock is a Hold with a £2250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intermediate Capital stock, see the GB:ICG Stock Forecast page.

Intermediate Capital Group Announces Total Voting Rights

Intermediate Capital Group plc, a company involved in financial services, announced the total number of voting rights as of 30 November 2025. The company has 294,373,624 ordinary shares, with 3,733,333 held in treasury, resulting in 290,640,291 voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements under FCA rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ICG) stock is a Buy with a £2800.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intermediate Capital stock, see the GB:ICG Stock Forecast page.

ICG and Amundi Forge Strategic Partnership to Target Wealth Investors

Intermediate Capital Group (ICG) and Amundi have announced a strategic partnership to develop private market products aimed at wealth investors, leveraging ICG’s investment expertise and Amundi’s distribution capabilities. This partnership is expected to significantly increase ICG’s assets under management and enhance its product offerings, while Amundi plans to acquire a 9.9% economic interest in ICG, reinforcing the long-term strategic alignment between the two companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ICG) stock is a Hold with a £2159.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intermediate Capital stock, see the GB:ICG Stock Forecast page.

Intermediate Capital Group Reports Strong Interim Results and Strategic Partnership

Intermediate Capital Group has reported strong interim results for the six months ending September 2025, driven by robust client demand and investment excellence. The company achieved a 6% increase in fee-earning AUM to $84 billion, with a five-year annualized growth rate of 14%. Fundraising reached $9 billion, supported by significant contributions from European IX and European Infrastructure II funds. Management fees rose by 16%, and performance fee income saw a notable increase due to a strategic change in approach. The group also announced a strategic partnership with Amundi to enhance its private markets offerings for wealth investors. These developments underscore ICG’s strong market positioning and commitment to sustainable value creation, despite the uncertain economic environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:ICG) stock is a Hold with a £2159.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Intermediate Capital stock, see the GB:ICG Stock Forecast page.