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Grainger PLC (GB:GRI)
LSE:GRI

Grainger (GRI) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:GRI

Grainger

(LSE:GRI)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
208.00 p
▲(15.04% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/11/25
Grainger's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong profitability but declining revenue and cash flow. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, but the stock's attractive valuation and positive earnings call outlook provide a counterbalance. The company's strategic growth plans and REIT conversion are significant positives.

Grainger (GRI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Grainger Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGrainger plc, together with its subsidiaries, designs, owns, operates, manages, and rents residential properties in the United Kingdom. It also provides property and asset management services. The company was incorporated in 1912 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrainger generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vast inventory of industrial supplies and MRO products. The company operates a multi-channel distribution model, which includes e-commerce, mobile platforms, and a network of physical branches, allowing customers to access products through their preferred purchasing method. Key revenue streams include direct sales to businesses, government contracts, and online orders. Additionally, Grainger benefits from various partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers to offer a comprehensive range of products, which enhances its market competitiveness. The company's extensive catalog and strong logistics capabilities enable it to serve customers quickly and efficiently, contributing to its overall earnings.

Grainger Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call showcased Grainger's strong financial and operational performance, highlighted by significant earnings growth, high occupancy, and successful conversion to REIT status. Despite challenges with increased overhead and interest costs, the strategic outlook remains positive with solid growth projections and robust market fundamentals.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Growth Projections
Grainger is targeting GBP 60 million of earnings in full year '26 and GBP 72 million by full year '29, a 50% growth from full year '24. This is driven by sustainable rental growth outlook and strong underlying fundamentals.
Outstanding Financial Performance
Net rental income is up 12%, like-for-like rental growth is up 3.6%, and earnings have grown by 12%. Dividend growth is at 10%, and NTA remains resilient at 298p per share.
High Occupancy and Customer Retention
Achieved high occupancy at 98.1% with strong customer retention at 61%, and customers are paying below market average on rent, indicating good affordability.
Conversion to REIT Status
Grainger successfully converted to REIT status, which eliminates corporation tax on profits from the build-to-rent business, expected to generate GBP 15 million of savings in the first year alone.
Negative Updates
Increased Overhead Costs
Overhead costs increased by 4% in the year, in line with wage inflation, although cost savings of GBP 2 million are targeted with a GBP 1 million benefit in FY '26.
Interest Costs and Debt Levels
Interest costs increased due to lower levels of capitalized interest and a slightly higher average interest rate during the year, with net debt broadly flat at GBP 1.46 billion.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Grainger provided a robust outlook for its fiscal performance, emphasizing its sustained growth and strategic positioning. The company reported a 12% increase in net rental income and a 12% rise in EPRA earnings, with occupancy reaching a high of 98.1% and like-for-like rental growth at 3.6%. Grainger aims for GBP 60 million in earnings by 2026 and GBP 72 million by 2029, representing a 50% growth from 2024. The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, with plans to reduce net debt by GBP 300-350 million over the next four years. With a fully integrated operational platform and a sector-leading portfolio, Grainger highlights its resilience against higher interest rates, targeting a dividend increase of 10% and maintaining an EPRA NTA of 298p per share. The company's commitment to high-quality homes and strong customer service underpins its growth strategy, supported by a capital allocation strategy aimed at maximizing shareholder returns.

Grainger Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Grainger's financial performance is mixed. Strong profitability margins are offset by a significant decline in revenue and free cash flow growth. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, but increasing debt levels need careful management.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Grainger's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 63.65% for the latest year, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is exceptionally high at 78.25%, primarily due to a significant net income figure, which may not be sustainable. Revenue has declined by 16.67% compared to the previous year, raising concerns about growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, but the revenue contraction is a notable risk.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is 9.93%, showing decent profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 54.06%, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with a 26.31% decline in free cash flow growth, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.61, suggesting that operating cash flow is not fully covering net income, which could impact liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.99, showing efficient cash conversion from profits.
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Grainger Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price180.80
Price Trends
50DMA
188.02
Negative
100DMA
184.67
Negative
200DMA
190.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.74
Positive
RSI
30.09
Neutral
STOCH
15.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 180.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 185.74, below the 50-day MA of 188.02, and below the 200-day MA of 190.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRI.

Grainger Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
£264.57M9.3510.86%3.66%97.27%25.80%
71
Outperform
£234.43M9.913.59%20.46%
69
Neutral
£134.57M13.9311.42%2.05%10.84%113.75%
67
Neutral
£1.27B7.0710.25%3.62%-8.66%553.35%
54
Neutral
£1.28B38.837.57%2.20%7.81%22.76%
51
Neutral
£155.65M-6.51
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:GRI
Grainger
172.20
-18.70
-9.80%
GB:FOXT
Foxtons
45.70
-15.75
-25.63%
GB:LSL
LSL Property Services
235.00
-18.18
-7.18%
GB:TPFG
The Property Franchise
415.00
-13.55
-3.16%
GB:PSDL
Phoenix Spree Deutschland Ltd
169.50
7.25
4.47%
GB:SVS
Savills
930.00
54.75
6.26%

Grainger Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger CFO Rob Hudson Exercises Share Options and Updates Equity Holding
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026

Grainger plc disclosed that Group Chief Financial Officer and executive director Rob Hudson exercised a 2021 recruitment nil-cost share option award over 98,449 ordinary shares, subsequently selling 46,435 shares at an average price of £1.89 to cover income tax and national insurance obligations. Following these transactions, Hudson transferred 52,014 retained shares to his civil partner and person closely associated, Robert Driscoll, leaving Hudson with a total beneficial holding of 341,817 Grainger shares, including those held through the company’s Share Incentive Plan and by his associated person, in line with U.K. Market Abuse Regulation disclosure requirements.

The transactions, conducted partly on the London Stock Exchange and partly off-market, reflect routine equity award vesting and personal tax planning rather than any announced change in Grainger’s strategic direction or capital policy. For investors, the filing primarily serves to update the market on the CFO’s shareholding and reinforces transparency around senior management equity interests and compliance with regulatory reporting standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Buy with a £213.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Grainger Shareholders Back All Resolutions at 2026 AGM
Positive
Feb 4, 2026

Grainger plc reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 4 February 2026 Annual General Meeting were approved by poll, with proxy votes representing 76.85% of the company’s ordinary share capital (excluding treasury shares). Investors backed the adoption of the 2025 annual report and accounts, the directors’ remuneration report and policy, the declaration of a dividend, the election of Simon Fraser and the re-election of the existing board members, as well as the reappointment and remuneration authority of KPMG as auditor. Shareholders also renewed authorities for the board to allot and issue shares for cash, undertake share buybacks, shorten notice periods for general meetings, authorise limited political donations and approve the 2017 long-term incentive plan, reinforcing management’s flexibility on capital allocation and corporate actions. The strong level of support across all resolutions underlines continued shareholder confidence in Grainger’s governance, leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Buy with a £216.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Grainger Posts Strong Rental Growth and High Occupancy as BTR Pipeline Expands
Positive
Feb 4, 2026

Grainger reported a strong trading performance for the four months to the end of January 2026, with total like-for-like rental growth of 3.1% and PRS rental growth of 2.8%, while regulated tenancies rose 6.2%. Occupancy in its stabilised PRS portfolio remained high at 96%, underpinned by strong demand that saw its new London BTR asset, Seraphina, fully let in under four months, the completion of its third Bristol scheme, Glasshouse Square, and the start of construction on a second Guildford project with Network Rail. The company also expanded its committed pipeline by acquiring a 195-home BTR scheme in Chiswick through its joint venture with Transport for London’s property arm, reinforcing visibility on future earnings. Management highlighted a supportive structural backdrop as smaller private landlords exit and new supply slows, and plans to redeploy about £0.5bn of surplus capital from non-core, low-yielding disposals into higher-growth rental opportunities, underpinning expectations of significant future earnings growth and strengthening Grainger’s position in the UK rental housing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Buy with a £216.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Other
Grainger Directors Receive Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Neutral
Feb 3, 2026

Grainger plc has reported routine share transactions by its directors and senior managers under its all-employee Share Incentive Plan, an HMRC-approved scheme that lets staff buy ordinary shares via monthly salary deductions and receive additional matching shares at no cost. On 2 February 2026, SIP trustee Link Market Services Trustees Ltd purchased 4,333 partnership shares at £1.93 each for allocation to participating employees and granted 3,806 matching shares, including small allocations to CEO Helen Gordon, CFO Rob Hudson and senior executives Michael Keaveney and Eliza Pattinson, underscoring ongoing equity-based alignment between the company’s leadership and its broader shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Grainger Starts £75m Second Build-to-Rent Scheme at Guildford Station
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

Grainger plc has begun construction on its second build-to-rent development at Guildford Station, a roughly £75m project that will deliver 179 new rental homes and expand its presence in the town to 277 units and more than £116m of investment. Developed in partnership with Solum, a joint venture between Network Rail’s property arm Platform4 and Kier Property, the scheme forms part of a wider £150m regeneration of the station quarter, including £25m of station upgrades such as a new ticket hall, improved pedestrian access and a multi-storey car park, reinforcing Grainger’s strategy of targeting well-connected, high-demand locations near major transport hubs. The project, expected to complete in 2028 with leasing to follow and contribute to earnings from that year, underlines the growing policy and industry focus on station-led housing delivery and demonstrates how under-used railway land can be converted into much-needed rental housing while supporting infrastructure improvements and long-term community value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Buy with a £213.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Grainger JV Buys £68m Chiswick Build-to-Rent Scheme in First Deal with Major Housebuilder
Positive
Jan 26, 2026

Connected Living London, the joint venture between Grainger and Places for London, has agreed to forward fund and acquire a 195-home build-to-rent scheme at Chiswick Reach in West London from Barratt Redrow for approximately £68.4 million. The project, which has full planning consent and safety approvals, will deliver a mix of standard and discounted market rent units, alongside commercial and amenity space, and marks Grainger’s first build-to-rent collaboration with a major UK housebuilder, strengthening its West London cluster and reinforcing its strategy of growing its London portfolio of professionally managed rental homes.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Buy with a £215.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Discloses Executive and Employee Share Awards Under Incentive Plan
Positive
Jan 5, 2026

Grainger plc has disclosed that its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan acquired 5,280 partnership shares at £1.81 each and allocated 4,642 matching shares to participating employees on 2 January 2026, including senior executives. Under the plan, CEO Helen Gordon and CFO Rob Hudson each received 83 partnership and 83 matching shares, while Directors Michael Keaveney and Eliza Pattinson each received 82 partnership and 82 matching shares, reinforcing equity-based incentives for management and broadening employee ownership in line with market abuse regulation disclosure requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Discloses DBSP Option Exercise by Senior Executive
Neutral
Dec 23, 2025

Grainger plc has disclosed that Michael Keaveney, its Director of Land and Development and a person discharging managerial responsibilities, has exercised 22,255 nil-cost options granted under the company’s Deferred Bonus Share Plan (DBSP). The self-funded exercise, relating to a 2022 DBSP award and settled in ordinary shares of 5p each, was conducted outside a trading venue on 23 December 2025 and is reported in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements, underscoring routine governance and transparency around executive incentive arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger CEO Helen Gordon Exercises Share Awards and Sells Portion to Cover Tax Liabilities
Neutral
Dec 23, 2025

Grainger plc disclosed that Group CEO Helen Gordon has exercised nil-cost options granted under the company’s 2020 Long Term Incentive Plan and 2022 Deferred Bonus Share Plan, resulting in the vesting of a total of 203,865 ordinary shares. To cover income tax and national insurance liabilities arising from these exercises, Gordon sold 92,066 shares at an average price of £1.81 per share on 23 December 2025, retaining the remainder and bringing her total shareholding to 412,830 shares, including those held in the company’s Share Incentive Plan, signaling continued equity alignment between the chief executive and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger CFO Exercises Share Options and Adjusts Equity Holding
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025

Grainger plc disclosed that Group Chief Financial Officer and executive director Rob Hudson has exercised a 2022 deferred bonus share plan (DBSP) nil‑cost option over 54,726 ordinary shares, selling 25,820 shares at an average price of £1.81 to cover income tax and national insurance liabilities and retaining the remaining shares. Following the exercise and a transfer of 28,906 shares to his civil partner and person closely associated, Robert Driscoll, Hudson’s total beneficial holding in Grainger has increased to 289,483 shares (including holdings in the company’s Share Incentive Plan and those held by his PCA), a routine management transaction that signals continued equity alignment of senior management with shareholders while complying with UK Market Abuse Regulation disclosure requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Discloses Director Share Option Exercise and Sale by Operations Chief
Neutral
Dec 22, 2025

Grainger plc has disclosed a director dealing involving Eliza Pattinson, Director of Operations and Asset Management and a person discharging managerial responsibilities, who exercised nil‑cost options granted under the company’s Deferred Bonus Share Plan, Enhanced Deferred Bonus Plan and 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan. Pattinson exercised vested awards over a total of 87,704 ordinary shares and subsequently sold the same number of shares at an average price of £1.811 per share, largely to satisfy associated income tax and national insurance liabilities, with the transactions executed on 22 December 2025 and reported in line with UK market disclosure rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Discloses Share Purchase by Associate of Senior Executive
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025

Grainger plc has disclosed that 44,825 ordinary shares in the company were purchased on the London Stock Exchange on 18 and 19 December 2025 by Caroline Keaveney, who is a person closely associated with Michael Keaveney, Grainger’s Director of Land and Development and a person discharging managerial responsibilities. The transaction, carried out at prices of £1.82 and £1.81 per share and reported under EU Market Abuse Regulation requirements, underscores ongoing insider-linked investment in the company’s equity and provides transparency to shareholders regarding dealings by individuals connected to senior management.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Grainger plc Publishes Notice of AGM 2026
Neutral
Dec 16, 2025

Grainger plc has announced the publication of its Notice of AGM 2026 following the release of its 2025 Annual Report and Accounts. The Notice includes details on shareholder voting procedures and a resolution to renew the Grainger 2017 Long-Term Incentive Plan, indicating a focus on long-term growth and shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Grainger PLC Grants Executive Share Options Under LTIP
Neutral
Dec 12, 2025

Grainger PLC has announced the grant of nil cost share options under its 2017 Long Term Incentive Plan to key executives, including the CEO and CFO. These options, which will vest after three years subject to performance conditions, aim to align executive incentives with company performance, potentially impacting Grainger’s operational focus and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Grainger PLC Grants Share Options to Executives Under Bonus Plan
Positive
Dec 12, 2025

Grainger PLC has announced the granting of nil cost share options under its Deferred Bonus Share Plan to key executives, including the CEO and CFO, as part of the compulsory deferral of 25% of their 2025 annual bonuses. This move underscores Grainger’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term company performance, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence in the company’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Hold with a £192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Grainger PLC Executes Share Incentive Plan Transactions
Positive
Dec 4, 2025

Grainger PLC announced the execution of transactions under its Share Incentive Plan (SIP), which allows employees to purchase shares using salary deductions and receive matching shares at no cost. The transactions involved the acquisition of 5,208 partnership shares and the allocation of 4,576 matching shares to employees, including key directors. This initiative reflects Grainger’s commitment to employee engagement and aligns the interests of its workforce with the company’s performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRI) stock is a Buy with a £2.98 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grainger stock, see the GB:GRI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025