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Grainger
(LSE:GRI)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
185.00 p
▲(2.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/26/26
Overall score reflects mixed financial performance (revenue and free-cash-flow pressure despite solid balance-sheet metrics) as the largest driver, tempered by weak technical momentum. The earnings call guidance and operational metrics are supportive, while valuation is helped by the dividend yield but clouded by a negative P/E.
Grainger (GRI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.30B
Dividend Yield3.62%
Average Volume (3M)2.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-23.35%
EPS Growth20.53%
CountryUK
Employees372
SectorN/A
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryReal Estate - Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding741,609,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,464,013
30 Day Avg. Volume2,611,742
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)5.54
P/FCF Ratio11.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£212.50Price Target Upside17.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Grainger Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grainger plc is a company based in the United Kingdom that focuses on the residential property sector. It is involved in all stages of the property lifecycle, from designing and owning residential buildings to their operation, management, and rent...
How the Company Makes Money
Grainger makes money primarily by purchasing industrial and MRO products from a large network of manufacturers and suppliers and reselling them to end customers at a markup, capturing gross profit on product sales. Revenue is driven by high-freque...
Grainger Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: robust rental growth, high occupancy, disciplined capital recycling, clear earnings and dividend guidance, margin expansion driven by technology and scale, and proactive refinancing/deleveraging plans. The company acknowledged manageable headwinds — a modest NTA decline tied to a 100bp yield widening, timing disruption to disposals, ongoing cost pressures, interest‑rate sensitivity during the rebasing period, and a persistent share‑price discount to NTA — but articulated clear mitigation actions and targets. On balance the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong rental performance
Total rental income increased ~7.8% (referred to as nearly 8%); like‑for‑like rental growth of 3.1%; occupancy remained high at ~96% (range 95–97%).
Negative Updates
Slight decline in NTA and yield pressure
Reported NTA slightly lower than FY25; management noted a large outward yield movement of ~100 basis points which weighed on valuations despite rental growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong rental performance
Total rental income increased ~7.8% (referred to as nearly 8%); like‑for‑like rental growth of 3.1%; occupancy remained high at ~96% (range 95–97%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Grainger reiterated that it is on track for c.£60m EPRA earnings this year (a 12% increase from £54m) and c.£72m by FY29 (c.35% growth), assuming long‑run like‑for‑like rental growth of 3–3.5% (H1 like‑for‑like +3.1%) and with total rents up ~7.8% in H1; occupancy remains high at c.95–97% (around 96%), annual customer renewals ~61%, operational costs ~25% of gross rents and central overheads broadly flat at c.£36m (with a further £2m saving), while each new home adds an incremental margin of ~75% driving EBITDA margin expansion from 54% (FY24) to 56% (FY25) and guided to 60%+ by FY29. The group is recycling c.£850m of non‑core assets (YTD disposals £82m, on track for c.£175–200m), targeting deleveraging of £300–350m to net debt ~£1.1bn (LTV ~30%, net debt/EBITDA ~8x), models a rebased cost of debt around 5.5% (noting current fixes locked in mid‑3s for ~2 years), and has refinanced c.£540m of facilities to 2033, trimming banking margins by ~£1m p.a.Grainger Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
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Grainger Technical Analysis
Positive
180.80
Price Trends
162.95
Positive
165.43
Positive
173.54
Positive
Market Momentum
3.15
Positive
62.81
Neutral
71.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 180.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 171.96, above the 50-day MA of 162.95, and above the 200-day MA of 173.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GRI.
Grainger Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
73 Outperform | £280.51M | 14.67 | 12.56% | 3.66% | 25.19% | 72.02% | |
69 Neutral | £120.36M | 9.49 | 8.96% | 2.05% | 5.25% | -7.14% | |
61 Neutral | £1.30B | 9.84 | 6.53% | 3.62% | -23.35% | 20.53% | |
61 Neutral | £225.65M | 13.66 | 20.71% | 3.59% | 5.96% | -2.01% | |
54 Neutral | £1.29B | 19.06 | 9.70% | 2.20% | 6.11% | 31.70% | |
47 Neutral | £137.69M | -27.26 | -2.38% | ― | ― | ― |
* Sector Average
GB:GRI
Grainger
175.70
-24.04
-12.03%
GB:FOXT
Foxtons
40.70
-21.10
-34.14%
GB:LSL
LSL Property Services
228.00
-61.99
-21.38%
GB:TPFG
The Property Franchise
440.00
-67.62
-13.32%
GB:PSDL
Phoenix Spree Deutschland Ltd
162.00
5.39
3.44%
GB:SVS
Savills
930.00
0.28
0.03%
Grainger Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Directors Receive Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jul 10, 2026
Grainger plc has disclosed routine share dealings by its directors and senior managers under its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan, in which employees buy partnership shares via monthly salary deductions and receive matching shares at no cost. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Expands Employee Share Ownership With New SAYE Option Grants
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
Grainger plc has granted options over 753,873 ordinary shares at £1.32 per share under its HMRC-approved Save As You Earn scheme, following new invitations to employees. Participants have taken up either three-year contracts, covering 473,845...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Executives Receive Shares Under All-Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
Grainger plc has disclosed routine share transactions involving its senior management under its HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee trust structure through which staff buy partnership shares and are awarded matching shares. On 8 Ju...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Discloses Share Purchase by Associate of Senior Executive
Positive
May 19, 2026
Grainger plc disclosed that Caroline Keaveney, a person closely associated with Michael Keaveney, the company’s Director of Land and Development, purchased 13,229 ordinary shares in the company on 18 May 2026. The trade, conducted on the Lon...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Grainger CEO Helen Gordon Joins Big Yellow as Senior Independent Director
Positive
May 19, 2026
Grainger plc has disclosed that its Chief Executive Officer, Helen Gordon, will take on an additional role as Senior Independent Non-Executive Director at Big Yellow Group PLC, effective 1 June 2027. The appointment highlights Gordon’s growi...
Dividends
Grainger Corrects DRIP Election Deadline for 2026 Interim Dividend
Neutral
May 14, 2026
Grainger plc has issued a clarification regarding its interim dividend for the year ending 30 September 2026, correcting the timetable for its Dividend Re-investment Plan. The company said the final date for shareholders to elect to participate in...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Grainger posts strong H1 rental growth and reaffirms earnings targets
Positive
May 14, 2026
Grainger reported a strong first half as a newly minted REIT, with net rental income up 7.8% to £66.1m, EPRA earnings up 4% to £31.4m and like-for-like rents rising 3.1% amid high occupancy of 95.9% and stable tenant affordability. Despi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Grainger Extends £540m Banking Facilities to 2033 at Lower Margins
Positive
May 11, 2026
Grainger has extended £540 million of its core banking facilities with AIB, Barclays, HSBC and NatWest to 2033, securing longer-dated funding at lower margins. The move lifts its weighted average facility maturity, including extension options...
Business Operations and Strategy
Grainger executives receive shares under all-employee incentive plan
Positive
May 6, 2026
Grainger plc has reported routine share transactions by its directors and other senior managers under the company’s HMRC-approved Share Incentive Plan. The plan allows employees to buy partnership shares in the market and receive matching sh...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Grainger Clarifies Tax Options on REIT Property Income Distributions
Positive
Apr 20, 2026
Grainger plc has reminded investors that, as a UK residential REIT, it pays part of its annual and interim dividends as Property Income Distributions, which are generally subject to a 20% withholding tax. The company noted that certain eligible sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.