MJ Gleeson PLC (GLE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £154.59M
• Dividend Yield: 2.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 144.10K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 47.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: 5.93%
• EPS Growth: -18.20%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 709
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 58,428,127
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 56,836
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 144,102
• PEG Ratio: -0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -38.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £432.50
• Price Target Upside: 63.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): £403.20M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: 269.00 p ▲(1.51% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/22/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/22/26

The score is held back primarily by very weak technicals (price below all key moving averages, bearish MACD, and extremely low RSI) and a demanding P/E valuation. Financial performance is mixed—strong balance sheet and modest revenue growth, but pressured margins and negative recent operating/free cash flow reduce confidence.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet health

A low debt-to-equity profile and healthy equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility: the group can fund land promotion and site infrastructure, withstand housing-cycle volatility, and avoid near-term refinancing stress. This supports long-term operational resilience and strategic optionality.

Revenue growth trend

Consistent positive revenue growth indicates steady demand and effective sales execution across divisions. Sustained top-line expansion supports scale economics, improves bargaining with suppliers over time, and underpins the ability to invest in land pipeline and operational capability over the next several quarters.

Diversified business model

Dual revenue streams—housebuilding and land promotion—provide structural diversification. Land promotion crystallizes uplifts when planning secured, while housebuilding delivers recurring completions. This mix smooths cash and profit cycles over the medium term and preserves multiple routes to monetize land assets.

Negative Factors

Margin compression

Falling gross and net margins point to weakening pricing power or rising build and input costs. For a business with land and build cost exposure, sustained margin erosion reduces return on projects, tightens cash generation and can force lower land acquisition or slower growth if margins don't recover.

Cash flow volatility

Negative operating and free cash flow in the recent period signals earnings are not converting to cash. That hampers the firm's ability to self-fund land promotions and site work, increases reliance on external finance, and raises the risk of constrained capital allocation during tougher market windows.

Declining return on equity

A falling ROE suggests the company is generating lower profits per unit of equity, reflecting margin pressure or capital tied up in slower-return projects. If persistent, this undermines shareholder returns and signals potential inefficiencies in land conversion or operational execution.

MJ Gleeson PLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MJ Gleeson plc engages in low-cost house building and land promotion activities in the United Kingdom. The company operates through two divisions, Gleeson Homes and Gleeson Land. It also engages in the house building activities in the north of England and Midlands; and sale of land in the south of England. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Sheffield, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

MJ Gleeson makes money mainly from (1) selling newly built homes and (2) selling land interests after planning promotion. 1) Gleeson Homes (housebuilding revenues and profit) - Revenue model: Gleeson Homes generates revenue when it legally completes the sale of a finished home to a buyer (including first-time buyers and buyers using third-party mortgage finance). Revenue is recognized on legal completion rather than during construction. - Key economics: The division buys land (or enters into land arrangements), obtains planning where needed, designs and builds homes (often on multi-phase sites), and sells the finished units. Profit is driven by the difference between selling prices and the combined costs of land acquisition, site infrastructure, build costs (materials, labor, subcontractors), professional fees, sales/marketing, and overhead allocation. - Cash flow dynamics: Customer deposits are typically received ahead of completion; the majority of cash is collected at completion, commonly funded by the buyer’s mortgage lender. 2) Gleeson Land (land promotion and land sales) - Revenue model: Gleeson Land generates revenue by securing planning consent (or improving the planning status) on land and then selling that land—typically to third-party housebuilders—at a higher value than the acquisition and promotion costs. - Key economics: The division sources land (often at values reflecting current planning status), funds and manages the planning promotion process (surveys, technical work, planning applications/appeals), and crystallizes value through disposal once consent or a stronger planning position is achieved. Profit is the uplift between sale proceeds and the sum of land cost plus promotion/holding costs. Important factors influencing earnings - Housing market conditions: Demand, mortgage availability/interest rates, and consumer confidence affect sales rates and achievable selling prices. - Build-cost inflation and supply chain: Movements in materials and subcontractor pricing influence gross margins. - Land pipeline and planning outcomes: The ability to acquire land at appropriate prices and secure planning consents on favorable terms affects future volumes and profitability. - Partnerships: null

MJ Gleeson PLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue growth is positive, and the balance sheet is strong with low leverage, but profitability margins have trended down and the latest period shows negative operating/free cash flow, raising liquidity and earnings-quality concerns.

Income Statement

MJ Gleeson PLC has shown a consistent revenue growth trend over the past few years, with a 4% increase in the latest period. However, margins have been under pressure, with gross profit and net profit margins declining over the years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also seen a downward trend, indicating potential challenges in cost management or pricing power.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management and low leverage risk. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity has been declining, which could point to efficiency issues in generating returns from equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance has been volatile, with negative operating and free cash flows in the latest period. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting that earnings are not translating into cash flow effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	381.06M	365.82M	345.35M	328.32M	373.41M	288.57M
Gross Profit	86.12M	83.17M	84.53M	90.09M	97.79M	89.34M
EBITDA	27.34M	28.31M	33.12M	36.67M	47.18M	46.05M
Net Income	14.32M	15.82M	19.31M	24.17M	35.09M	33.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	441.35M	419.37M	378.05M	376.33M	367.56M	313.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.44M	6.49M	12.93M	5.16M	33.76M	34.33M
Total Debt	23.96M	7.27M	5.08M	5.14M	3.01M	2.32M
Total Liabilities	136.30M	111.71M	80.31M	90.31M	95.38M	68.20M
Stockholders Equity	305.05M	307.67M	297.74M	286.02M	272.18M	244.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.89M	-5.99M	15.95M	-18.86M	8.15M	20.35M
Operating Cash Flow	6.55M	-3.95M	17.99M	-14.42M	11.84M	24.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.60M	-1.72M	-1.33M	-3.15M	-2.10M	-2.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.42M	-3.04M	-8.88M	-11.03M	-10.30M	-63.69M

MJ Gleeson PLC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 265.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GLE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 265 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 311.00, below the 50-day MA of 350.94, and below the 200-day MA of 360.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -22.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 17.55 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GLE.

MJ Gleeson PLC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SPR	76 Outperform	£125.11M	12.62	8.30%	1.63%	5.26%	86.19%
BWY	65 Neutral	£2.49B	18.76	4.45%	2.62%	16.91%	20.93%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
VTY	54 Neutral	£1.09B	15.19	-0.31%	―	-0.57%	-104.08%
GLE	51 Neutral	£154.59M	47.38	5.23%	2.38%	5.93%	-18.20%
WJG	46 Neutral	£69.42M	-2.83	-6.53%	―	-22.78%	-543.24%
CRST	43 Neutral	£267.69M	192.98	0.30%	1.79%	-3.50%	-176.18%

MJ Gleeson PLC Corporate Events

MJ Gleeson Executives Add Shares via HMRC-Approved Employee Scheme

MJ Gleeson Plc has disclosed that several senior executives, including the chief executive, chief financial officer, chief operating officer of Gleeson Homes and the company secretary, have acquired small tranches of ordinary shares under an HMRC-approved Profit Sharing Employee Share Ownership Scheme. The purchases, executed on 5 March on the London Stock Exchange at £3.31 per share, reinforce the alignment of management and employee interests with shareholders, though the volumes involved are modest and primarily fulfil regulatory and incentive scheme requirements rather than signalling a major strategic shift.

The transactions covered individual acquisitions of 60 or 61 shares each by the four persons discharging managerial responsibilities, all recorded as single trades in compliance with UK Market Abuse Regulation disclosure rules. While financially immaterial in size, the move underscores ongoing use of tax-approved employee share schemes within the group and provides additional transparency over insider dealings for investors and market regulators.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GLE) stock is a Buy with a £364.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MJ Gleeson PLC stock, see the GB:GLE Stock Forecast page.

MJ Gleeson posts resilient H1 as margins tighten and outlook hinges on spring selling season

MJ Gleeson reported a resilient first-half performance in a subdued housing market, with group revenue rising 9.6% to £173.1m, driven by higher volumes and prices at Gleeson Homes and a rebound in Gleeson Land sales. However, operating profit fell 17.6% to £4.2m and pre-exceptional profit before tax dropped 44.4% to £2.0m, as margins were squeezed by rising build costs, incentives, softer bulk sales pricing and regulatory and tax headwinds.

Gleeson Homes increased completions to 848 units, lifted average selling prices by 2.5% and expanded its forward order book by 64% to 978 plots, while finalising a significant operational restructure expected to incur up to £4.5m of exceptional costs in the second half. Gleeson Land completed three disposals, secured planning on five sites slated for sale in FY2026 and submitted applications on 15 sites, giving the group a record pipeline, but management stressed that delivering full-year expectations depends on a strong spring selling season as recovery in demand and investor confidence remains fragile.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GLE) stock is a Hold with a £419.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MJ Gleeson PLC stock, see the GB:GLE Stock Forecast page.

MJ Gleeson Executives Acquire Shares Under Employee Ownership Scheme

MJ Gleeson has disclosed that several senior executives, including the chief executive, chief financial officer, chief operating officer of Gleeson Homes, and the company secretary, have each acquired 52 ordinary shares in the company. The purchases, executed on 5 February 2026 at £3.87 per share on the London Stock Exchange, were made through an HMRC-approved Profit Sharing Employee Share Ownership Scheme, underscoring ongoing alignment between management and investor interests and fulfilling UK Market Abuse Regulation disclosure requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GLE) stock is a Hold with a £419.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MJ Gleeson PLC stock, see the GB:GLE Stock Forecast page.

MJ Gleeson to Present Half-Year Results via Engage Investor Platform

MJ Gleeson plc, the affordable housebuilder and strategic land promoter, will present its half-year results for the period ended 31 December 2025 via a live interactive session on the Engage Investor platform at 14:30 on Thursday, 12 February 2026. The event, to be led by Chief Executive Officer Graham Prothero and Chief Financial Officer Stefan Allanson, is open to existing and prospective investors who can register free of charge and follow the company through a personalised investor hub.

The planned presentation underscores MJ Gleeson’s ongoing efforts to engage more directly with retail and institutional investors as it pursues its strategy in affordable housing and land promotion markets across England. By using a digital investor platform, the company aims to broaden access to management commentary on trading and strategic priorities, potentially enhancing transparency and market understanding of its socially focused, sustainability-linked business model.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GLE) stock is a Hold with a £419.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MJ Gleeson PLC stock, see the GB:GLE Stock Forecast page.

MJ Gleeson Sees Solid First Half and Builds Order Book Despite Subdued Housing Market

MJ Gleeson plc reported a solid first-half trading performance for the six months to 31 December 2025, with the Board expecting full-year results to be in line with market expectations despite a subdued housing market. Gleeson Homes increased home completions by around 6% to 848 units, boosted net reservation rates and entered the second half with a significantly larger forward order book, while management focuses on rebuilding margins through higher selling prices, volume growth and cost efficiencies under its Project Transform restructuring, whose costs will be treated as exceptional. The division continues to face constraints from under-resourced local planning authorities, reflected in fewer active selling sites, but expects an uplift in open market sales through the spring selling season following a December interest rate cut and easing Budget-related uncertainty. Gleeson Partnerships delivered its first homes and is seeing strong interest from private rental investors and housing associations, while Gleeson Land completed three site sales, has five more in active disposal processes, and has secured a strong pipeline of promoted sites with increased planning submissions and consents, although one major sale remains dependent on final highways approval; the Group ended the period with net debt of £22.5 million, and management asserts the business is well positioned to pursue its strategic growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GLE) stock is a Hold with a £427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MJ Gleeson PLC stock, see the GB:GLE Stock Forecast page.

MJ Gleeson Executives Acquire Shares Through Employee Ownership Scheme

MJ Gleeson plc has disclosed that several senior executives, including the chief executive officer, chief financial officer, chief operating officer of Gleeson Homes and the company secretary, have each acquired 46 ordinary shares in the company at £4.27 per share via its HMRC-approved Profit Sharing Employee Share Ownership Scheme. The small but simultaneous purchases by multiple persons discharging managerial responsibilities, executed on 5 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange, underscore ongoing management participation in the company’s equity-based incentive arrangements and provide additional transparency to investors in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GLE) stock is a Buy with a £435.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MJ Gleeson PLC stock, see the GB:GLE Stock Forecast page.