Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £390.49M
• Dividend Yield: 8.22%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.68
• Revenue Growth: -5.98%
• EPS Growth: -677.54%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 704
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 256,920,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 994,866
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,178,807
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.65
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -3.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: 207.17p
• Price Target Upside: 39.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

Crest Nicholson Holdings is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues and negative profitability, which is a primary concern. The technical analysis supports a bearish outlook with the stock trading below key moving averages. The company's negative P/E ratio further underscores profitability issues, although the attractive dividend yield may offer some relief to investors. Overall, the stock exhibits substantial risks that need addressing to improve its financial and market performance.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Market will be encouraged by stronger than expected cash flow - net debt £8.5m against guidance of £40-60m.

Valuation

Valuation very compelling at 0.5x book v the sector on 1.0x, suggesting significant upside if the new CEO can restore the Group to its potential.

Negative Factors

Profitability

Crest's PBT has fallen more than peers through the downturn due to cost overruns and stretched house prices in its south heartland.

Trading Outlook

Crest Nicholson faces the most challenging immediate trading outlook, given its southern exposure, and may still see more cladding costs.

Crest Nicholson Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC is a British construction company that focuses on residential property in the southern half of England. The company plans, designs, and builds single-family housing communities, apartment and townhome complexes, and commercial properties. Crest Nicholson completes approximately 3,000 homes annually with an average selling price around EUR 300,000. It is known for its particular expertise in homebuilding in the surrounding regions of London such as Surrey, Kent, Bristol, and Sussex. The company also participates in land development and planning to support its future projects.

How the Company Makes Money

Crest Nicholson Holdings generates revenue primarily through the development and sale of residential properties. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of newly built homes and properties within its housing developments. Crest Nicholson often acquires land, develops it into residential communities, and sells the completed homes. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with local authorities and private sector entities to enhance its development opportunities and maximize land value. Additionally, Crest Nicholson may earn from joint ventures and property management services, although these are not as significant as its core homebuilding operations. Market demand, land acquisition, and development efficiency are critical factors influencing the company's earnings.

Crest Nicholson Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Crest Nicholson Holdings faces notable financial headwinds, reflected in declining revenues, negative profitability, and cash flow challenges. While the balance sheet shows manageable leverage, the erosion of equity and assets is concerning. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash generation to stabilize its financial position.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals significant challenges with declining revenue and net income. The gross profit margin turned negative in the most recent year, indicating cost pressures. Revenue has decreased over the past few years, reflecting a contraction in business activity. The net profit margin is also negative, suggesting profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, indicating manageable leverage. However, the decline in stockholders' equity and total assets raises concerns about diminishing financial strength. The equity ratio remains reasonable, suggesting a stable capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights significant strains, with negative free cash flow in the recent year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, suggesting issues in converting earnings to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, reflecting cash generation challenges.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
632.30M	618.20M	657.50M	913.60M	786.60M	677.90M
	Gross Profit
57.00M	-71.60M	100.60M	194.30M	166.70M	107.70M
	EBIT
-1.60M	-128.70M	29.90M	140.90M	117.10M	47.00M
	EBITDA
-18.70M	-122.80M	39.50M	42.80M	100.20M	7.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-26.60M	-103.50M	17.90M	26.40M	70.90M	-10.70M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
163.70M	74.80M	163.70M	374.90M	351.80M	240.20M
	Total Assets
1.53B	1.44B	1.53B	1.58B	1.61B	1.47B
	Total Debt
309.60M	94.30M	104.10M	101.00M	102.50M	104.20M
	Net Debt
147.00M	20.50M	-58.50M	-272.60M	-248.20M	-135.20M
	Total Liabilities
674.00M	713.30M	674.00M	696.10M	706.80M	641.90M
	Stockholders Equity
856.30M	728.90M	856.30M	883.10M	901.60M	825.30M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-49.30M	-69.20M	-167.40M	54.10M	126.40M	114.20M
	Operating Cash Flow
-48.40M	-67.80M	-165.60M	54.20M	126.60M	114.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
21.80M	25.00M	1.60M	11.90M	-700.00K	-4.50M
	Financing Cash Flow
-45.60M	-46.00M	-47.00M	-43.20M	-14.60M	-41.20M

Crest Nicholson Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 148.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CRST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 148.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.71, below the 50-day MA of 166.82, and below the 200-day MA of 196.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CRST.

Crest Nicholson Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFRD	75 Outperform	£341.99M	9.65	29.58%	4.45%	27.20%	318.27%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$13.01B	10.45	0.79%	3.53%	1.60%	-22.47%
CRST	47 Neutral	£390.49M	―	-14.20%	8.22%	-5.98%	-677.54%

Crest Nicholson Holdings Corporate Events

Crest Nicholson Announces Share Acquisitions by Key Executives

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc announced transactions involving the acquisition of ordinary shares by key company figures, including the Chief Financial Officer and the Group Company Secretary, under the Deferred Share Award scheme. These transactions, which are subject to a three-year holding period, reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to align management interests with shareholder value, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

Crest Nicholson Sees Change in Voting Rights with Wellcome Trust Acquisition

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has announced a change in its voting rights structure, with The Wellcome Trust Limited acquiring a 3.0699% stake in the company. This acquisition could potentially influence the company’s strategic decisions and impact its market positioning, as significant stakeholders like The Wellcome Trust may seek to leverage their voting power in future corporate governance matters.

Crest Nicholson Sees Shift in Voting Rights with Ameriprise Financial

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has announced a change in the voting rights held by Ameriprise Financial, Inc., which now holds 5.773% of the voting rights in the company. This change, resulting from an acquisition or disposal of voting rights, reflects a significant increase from the previous 4.925% and may impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes.

Crest Nicholson Sees Increase in Major Shareholder Voting Rights

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has announced a change in its major holdings, with Shanlis Investments Unlimited increasing its voting rights from 6.03% to 7.11%. This acquisition of additional voting rights signifies a strengthened position for Shanlis Investments in the company, potentially impacting Crest Nicholson’s strategic decisions and stakeholder dynamics.

Crest Nicholson Releases 2024 Annual Report and 2025 AGM Notice

Crest Nicholson Holdings has published its 2024 Annual Report and Accounts, along with the 2025 Notice of Annual General Meeting, providing stakeholders with updated insights into its operations and performance for the year ended October 31, 2024. These documents, crucial for investors and stakeholders for planning and decision-making, are available on the company’s website and at the National Storage Mechanism, with hard copies sent to those who opted for paper format.

Crest Nicholson’s Voting Rights See Major Shift with Ameriprise Disposal

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has announced a change in the voting rights ownership, with Ameriprise Financial, Inc. reducing its stake from 9.929% to 4.925%. This shift indicates a significant disposal of voting rights, which could impact Crest Nicholson’s shareholder dynamics and influence corporate decisions. The update reflects a strategic move by Ameriprise Financial, which may have implications for the company’s governance and future decision-making processes.

Crest Nicholson Awards Shares to Key Executives Under LTIP

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc announced that its CEO, CFO, and Group Company Secretary have been granted share awards under the company’s Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP). These transactions, which involve a significant volume of shares, underline Crest Nicholson’s strategy to align its leadership’s interests with long-term company performance, potentially impacting shareholder value and company growth.

Crest Nicholson Sees Increase in FIL Limited’s Voting Rights

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has announced a change in its major holdings, with FIL Limited increasing its total voting rights in the company to 12.01%, up from 11.01%. This change indicates a strategic move by FIL Limited to strengthen its influence within Crest Nicholson, potentially impacting the company’s future decisions and operations.

Crest Nicholson Meets FY24 Guidance Amid Strategic Overhaul

Crest Nicholson Holdings reported its full-year 2024 results, meeting initial guidance despite challenging conditions and a disappointing year. The company has made significant strides in operational progress, including improved governance and customer satisfaction, and is addressing legacy issues with a comprehensive fire remediation provision. CEO Martyn Clark outlined new strategic priorities aimed at sustainable growth, profitability, and shareholder value. Despite economic and political challenges, there is optimism due to pent-up demand for high-quality homes, with encouraging early indicators of customer interest. The company’s financials showed a significant statutory loss due to exceptional charges, though it remains cautiously optimistic about future prospects with a strong land bank and brand positioning.

Crest Nicholson Sees Shift in Major Shareholder Voting Rights

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has announced a change in the voting rights held within the company, with FIL Limited now holding an increased total of 11.0104% voting rights as of January 17, 2025. This adjustment reflects an increase from a previous 10.05%, indicating a significant acquisition of both direct and financial instrument-based voting rights, which could enhance FIL Limited’s influence in the company’s strategic decisions.

Crest Nicholson Announces Revised Date for 2024 Results Amid Increased Fire Remediation Costs

Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC has postponed its preliminary financial results announcement for the fiscal year ending October 31, 2024, to February 4, 2025, due to auditors requiring more time to review fire remediation provisions. The expected provision for fire remediation costs has increased significantly to approximately £245m-£255m, from £145m at half-year, as the company prepares for the completion of its remediation program by FY29. This adjustment and the clear provision for costs are intended to provide a stable foundation for its new management team to focus on strategic priorities.