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Duke Capital
(LSE:DUKE)
Select Model
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
30.00 p
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but not fully consistent financial performance, with key offsets from volatile free cash flow and rising debt. Technicals are supportive (price above major averages with positive MACD), while valuation is mixed—an attractive dividend yield is balanced by a relatively high P/E.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet equity base
A substantial equity cushion (FY2026 ~£175m) vs. debt (~£99m) provides structural loss absorption and room to support financing activity. For an alternative finance firm, this equity base sustains underwriting capacity, reduces solvency risk, and underpins long-term ability to fund new deals.
Negative Factors
Rising absolute debt
A fivefold increase in nominal debt raises structural financial risk as the firm scales. Higher absolute leverage increases sensitivity to partner cashflow stress and limits flexibility for opportunistic investments. Over months this can amplify funding costs and constrain capital allocation if earnings falter.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet equity base
A substantial equity cushion (FY2026 ~£175m) vs. debt (~£99m) provides structural loss absorption and room to support financing activity. For an alternative finance firm, this equity base sustains underwriting capacity, reduces solvency risk, and underpins long-term ability to fund new deals.
Read all positive factors
Duke Capital (DUKE) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£130.57M
Dividend Yield9.74%
Average Volume (3M)795.27K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.12
Revenue Growth-2.21%
EPS Growth354.17%
CountryUK
Employees18
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding509,815,770
10 Day Avg. Volume1,322,295
30 Day Avg. Volume795,269
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)4.58
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£41.00Price Target Upside49.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)£28.40M
Duke Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Duke Capital Limited operates as a private equity firm primarily engaged in Management Buyouts (MBOs), buy-and-build strategies, mid-market investments, minority buyouts, restructuring endeavors, and royalty financing for small to medium-sized ent...
How the Company Makes Money
Duke Capital makes money primarily by providing long-term capital to businesses via structured financing agreements and earning recurring cash returns from those arrangements. Its main revenue streams typically include: (1) fixed and/or variable i...
Duke Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 28.64M | 15.01M | 25.39M | 21.88M | 18.36M |
| Gross Profit | 28.39M | 6.40M | 19.04M | 21.20M | 16.62M |
| EBITDA | 20.97M | 738.00K | 28.47M | 26.70M | 23.50M |
| Net Income | 10.99M | 2.00M | 11.61M | 19.59M | 20.39M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 276.15M | 268.60M | 238.31M | 221.52M | 183.73M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 79.33M | 19.77M | 36.26M | 41.73M | 26.54M |
| Total Debt | 99.43M | 88.33M | 70.88M | 55.07M | 48.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 101.32M | 91.05M | 73.03M | 57.26M | 50.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 174.83M | 177.55M | 165.28M | 164.26M | 132.94M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 21.52M | 16.92M | 10.72M | 71.92M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.22M | 21.52M | 16.92M | 10.72M | 9.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.55M | -22.87M | -26.38M | -25.17M | -61.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.08M | 18.33M | -2.75M | 17.71M | 56.49M |
Duke Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
27.50
Price Trends
25.34
Positive
25.44
Positive
25.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Positive
53.34
Neutral
23.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:DUKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.85, above the 50-day MA of 25.34, and above the 200-day MA of 25.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:DUKE.
Duke Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | £220.26M | 13.79 | 14.29% | 8.15% | 0.66% | 11.49% | |
71 Outperform | £130.57M | 11.93 | 2.71% | 9.74% | -2.21% | 354.17% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | £211.29M | 21.92 | 10.12% | 21.31% | -20.90% | -40.53% | |
64 Neutral | £123.53M | 9.64 | 11.90% | 17.93% | -22.86% | -56.06% | |
64 Neutral | £85.53M | 11.48 | 30.24% | 8.61% | -3.44% | -16.56% | |
52 Neutral | £111.90M | -13.05 | 1.79% | 3.29% | -2.25% | -353.75% |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:DUKE
Duke Capital
26.25
-1.73
-6.19%
GB:CLIG
City of London Investment
458.00
138.08
43.16%
GB:IPX
Impax Asset Management
102.20
-76.70
-42.87%
GB:LIO
Liontrust Asset Management
340.50
1.64
0.49%
GB:MERC
Mercia Asset Management
26.50
-5.50
-17.19%
GB:REC
Record plc
46.00
-12.53
-21.41%
Duke Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Duke Capital Declares Interim Dividend for First Quarter
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
Duke Capital Limited, the AIM-listed hybrid capital provider to SMEs in Europe and North America, continues to focus on delivering risk-adjusted returns through long-term financing structures that align its returns with the growth of its portfolio...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Duke Capital Delivers Higher Cash Flows and Steady Dividend Amid Macroeconomic Strain
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
Duke Capital reported a solid FY26 performance despite macroeconomic headwinds, with total cash revenue rising 7% to £28.6 million and recurring cash revenue up 5% to £27.1 million. Free cash flow increased 13% to £14.2 million, pro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Duke Capital Sets Date for FY26 Results and Investor Presentation
Neutral
May 28, 2026
Duke Capital Limited will publish its audited results for the 12 months ended 31 March 2026 on 18 June 2026 and plans to host a live investor presentation on the Investor Meet Company platform on 22 June at 2 p.m. BST. The event, accessible to bot...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Duke Capital Guides for Record Q4 Recurring Revenue and Strong Exit Returns
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
Duke Capital expects record recurring cash revenue of £7.0 million in the fourth quarter of its 2026 financial year, an 8% rise on the prior-year period and up from £6.8 million in the previous quarter. Including proceeds from the final ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.