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Compass Group PLC (GB:CPG)
LSE:CPG

Compass (CPG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB

Compass

(LSE:CPG)

73Outperform
Compass Group scores well on financial performance, driven by robust revenue and profit growth, and strategic investments. The technical indicators and valuation suggest some caution, with a high P/E ratio and moderate market momentum. Earnings call insights and recent corporate events highlight both strengths and challenges, including rising interest expenses and volume growth uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Contract Wins
Strong contract win momentum is seen with the company winning over double its historical pace of net contract wins in USD terms.
Market Positioning
The company is effectively positioned to benefit from pressures caused by the US election and UK Budget, which are expected to accelerate outsourcing.
Negative Factors
Interest Costs
Higher interest costs are 20% more than prior estimates, reflecting higher than expected M&A spend and the impact of debt refinancing.
M&A Impact
M&A/disposals to move to a headwind in H2.
Share Buyback
The lack of share buyback has been noted as a negative factor affecting the stock sentiment.

Compass (CPG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Compass Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass, Inc. (CPG) is a leading technology-driven real estate company that provides an innovative platform for buying, selling, and renting properties. The company integrates advanced technology with professional services to empower real estate agents and improve the home buying and selling experience for clients. Operating primarily within the residential real estate sector, Compass offers a suite of digital tools and services that streamline transactions, enhance property marketing, and provide data-driven insights.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass makes money primarily through real estate transaction commissions. The company partners with real estate agents who use its platform to facilitate property sales and rentals. Agents pay Compass a percentage of the commission they earn from each transaction. Additionally, Compass generates revenue by offering various ancillary services, such as marketing and advertising support, to real estate professionals. The company's business model is heavily reliant on its ability to attract and retain top-performing agents and to expand its market presence through strategic acquisitions and partnerships with local brokerages.

Compass Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Compass exhibits strong financial health across all key areas. The impressive revenue and profit growth, coupled with efficient cash flow management and a stable balance sheet, positions the company well for future growth. However, maintaining control over debt levels and enhancing equity proportion could further strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Compass has shown impressive revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a 35.36% increase. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 33.15% and a solid net profit margin of 3.34%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 6.05% and 8.12%, respectively, indicate strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects robust growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Compass's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is 20.56%, showcasing efficient utilization of equity capital. An equity ratio of 28.05% suggests a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy position, slight improvements in equity proportion could enhance stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The company demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.23. Free cash flow has grown by 22.18% from 2023 to 2024, supporting the company's operational and growth activities. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.59 further emphasizes positive cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
31.81B42.00B31.03B25.51B17.91B19.94B
Gross Profit
2.14B13.93B1.95B1.48B962.00M3.76B
EBIT
2.17B2.54B2.25B1.45B990.00M570.00M
EBITDA
2.72B3.41B2.74B2.35B1.28B915.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.36B1.40B1.31B1.24B357.00M133.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
695.00M623.00M1.03B1.99B1.84B1.48B
Total Assets
17.77B24.35B21.48B18.75B14.87B14.73B
Total Debt
5.84B5.91B5.27B4.88B4.48B4.72B
Net Debt
5.14B5.29B4.24B2.89B2.64B3.24B
Total Liabilities
12.59B17.44B15.18B12.84B9.95B9.92B
Stockholders Equity
5.14B6.83B6.26B5.87B4.89B4.79B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.51B2.23B1.83B1.31B943.00M205.00M
Operating Cash Flow
2.25B3.13B2.17B1.60B1.17B914.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.32B-1.49B-1.23B-874.00M-727.00M-1.10B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.42B-1.94B-2.09B-693.00M-152.00M1.28B

Compass Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2627.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2546.60
Positive
100DMA
2636.77
Negative
200DMA
2558.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
22.89
Negative
RSI
56.92
Neutral
STOCH
79.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2627 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2556.30, above the 50-day MA of 2546.60, and above the 200-day MA of 2558.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 22.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:CPG.

Compass Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBMAB
79
Outperform
£1.62B10.936.35%4.27%
GBCPG
73
Outperform
£44.72B38.9921.77%1.81%7.67%-15.09%
71
Outperform
£1.34B48.1312.09%2.12%14.07%236.27%
67
Neutral
£256.22M5.7910.69%0.50%
GBJDW
66
Neutral
£789.61M13.8016.38%1.67%3.70%57.10%
GBDOM
66
Neutral
£1.05B11.79
4.07%-2.25%-18.24%
61
Neutral
$6.97B11.382.88%3.90%2.64%-22.07%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CPG
Compass
2,627.00
439.60
20.10%
GB:MAB
Mitchells & Butlers
274.00
8.00
3.01%
GB:SSPG
SSP Group plc
167.20
-19.01
-10.21%
GB:MARS
Marston's
40.50
3.40
9.16%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
721.50
-59.59
-7.63%
GB:DOM
Domino's Pizza
267.40
-60.54
-18.46%

Compass Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial and operational performance with significant growth in key metrics and strategic investments driving future opportunities. However, challenges such as rising interest expenses and uncertainty in volume growth temper the overall optimism.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Operating profit increased by 16% with organic revenue growth of 11% and EPS up by 15%.
Net New Business Growth
Net new business was 4.2% for the year, accelerating to 4.8% in the second half, providing good momentum into 2025.
Strategic Investments and M&A
Invested $2.6 billion in CapEx and M&A, including acquisitions in the UK, Germany, France, and Norway, enhancing growth opportunities.
High Retention Rates
Improved retention rates, with second half retention above 96% and strong new business wins in sectors like B&I.
Positive Market Dynamics
Favorable outsourcing trends and market opportunities, especially in North America and Europe, supporting sustained growth.
Negative Updates
Increased Interest Expense
Interest expenses increased to $249 million due to higher interest rates and debt, projected to rise to $300 million in fiscal year '25.
Impact of Acquisitions and Disposals
Net impact of acquisitions and disposals expected to reduce profit in fiscal year 2025 by around $30 million.
Volume Growth Uncertainty
Volume growth moderated to around 2% and remains difficult to predict, with potential net positive but uncertain outlook.
Company Guidance
During the 2024 full year results call, Compass Group provided detailed guidance for fiscal year 2025, highlighting expectations for high single-digit operating profit growth driven by organic growth above 7.5%. The company anticipates continued margin improvement and net new business growth within a 4% to 5% range, marking an acceleration in the second half of 2024 to 4.8%. The guidance reflects pricing trends aligned with inflation at 2% to 3% and a likely net positive volume growth, despite a moderation to around 2% in 2024. The company also plans to sustain high revenue and profit growth across all regions, with a forecasted group operating profit increase of 16% to $3 billion. Interest expenses are expected to rise to $300 million due to acquisition activities, while the effective tax rate is projected to remain at 25.5%. Capital expenditure is anticipated to be around 3.5% of revenue. Compass Group's ongoing investment in its portfolio, including recent acquisitions such as Dupont Restauration in France, aims to unlock further growth opportunities and drive the company's long-term compounding shareholder returns.

Compass Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Compass Group Reports Strong Half-Year Results with Double-Digit Profit Growth
Positive
May 14, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced its half-year results for 2025, highlighting a strong performance with an 8.8% increase in revenue to $22.6 billion and an 11.6% rise in underlying operating profit. The company achieved double-digit profit growth driven by strong organic revenue and margin progression, supported by a robust client retention rate of over 96% and a significant pipeline of new business. The company continues to invest in growth through capital expenditure and mergers and acquisitions, while reshaping its portfolio by exiting non-core markets. With its resilient business model and sectorised approach, Compass is well-positioned to benefit from increasing outsourcing trends and expects continued profit growth ahead of revenue growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on GB:CPG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GB:CPG is a Outperform.

Compass Group scores well due to its strong financial performance and strategic guidance for growth. However, a high valuation and mixed technical indicators moderate the overall score. Rising interest expenses and volume growth uncertainties are key factors to monitor.

To see Spark’s full report on GB:CPG stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
Compass Group Announces Board Appointment at Vodafone
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced that Anne-Françoise Nesmes will join the Board of Vodafone Group Plc as a Non-executive Director. This appointment, which includes roles on the Audit and Risk Committee and ESG Committee, is subject to shareholder approval at Vodafone’s 2025 Annual General Meeting, indicating a strategic alignment and potential influence on governance and sustainability practices.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group PLC Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Compass Group PLC, a leading provider in the foodservice and support services industry, has announced its total voting rights and capital as of March 31, 2025. The company has issued 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares, with 1,697,430,179 shares admitted to trading and 87,973,798 shares held in treasury. The voting rights for the traded shares amount to 1,697,430,179, while the rights for treasury shares are suspended. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interests under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

Private Placements and Financing
Compass Group CFO Pledges Shares for Loan Facility
Neutral
Mar 21, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced a transaction involving Petros Parras, the Group CFO and Executive Director, who pledged 26,929 ordinary shares in favor of Société Generale as part of a loan facility for purchasing a residential property. This transaction, conducted outside a trading venue, highlights the personal financial activities of a key executive, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions of executive confidence and financial management within the company.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of February 28, 2025. The company has a total of 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares, with 1,697,430,179 shares admitted to trading and 87,973,798 shares held in treasury. The voting rights for the shares admitted to trading are 1,697,430,179, with each share carrying one vote, while treasury shares have suspended voting rights. The announcement also highlights the inclusion of shares traded as American Depositary Shares on the New York Stock Exchange within the total voting rights figure, which is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification obligations under the FCA’s rules.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.