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Compass Group PLC (GB:CPG)
LSE:CPG
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Compass (CPG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:CPG

Compass

(LSE:CPG)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
3,046.00p
▲(16.62%Upside)
Compass Group shows strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly through acquisitions and profit guidance upgrades. While the stock demonstrates upward technical momentum, a high P/E ratio suggests a potential overvaluation risk. The strong dividend yield provides a positive counterbalance.
Positive Factors
Contract Wins
Strong contract win momentum is seen with the company winning over double its historical pace of net contract wins in USD terms.
Market Positioning
The company is effectively positioned to benefit from pressures caused by the US election and UK Budget, which are expected to accelerate outsourcing.
Negative Factors
Interest Costs
Higher interest costs are 20% more than prior estimates, reflecting higher than expected M&A spend and the impact of debt refinancing.
M&A Impact
M&A/disposals to move to a headwind in H2.
Share Buyback
The lack of share buyback has been noted as a negative factor affecting the stock sentiment.

Compass (CPG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Compass Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass, Inc. (CPG) is a leading technology-driven real estate company that provides an innovative platform for buying, selling, and renting properties. The company integrates advanced technology with professional services to empower real estate agents and improve the home buying and selling experience for clients. Operating primarily within the residential real estate sector, Compass offers a suite of digital tools and services that streamline transactions, enhance property marketing, and provide data-driven insights.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass makes money primarily through real estate transaction commissions. The company partners with real estate agents who use its platform to facilitate property sales and rentals. Agents pay Compass a percentage of the commission they earn from each transaction. Additionally, Compass generates revenue by offering various ancillary services, such as marketing and advertising support, to real estate professionals. The company's business model is heavily reliant on its ability to attract and retain top-performing agents and to expand its market presence through strategic acquisitions and partnerships with local brokerages.

Compass Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 0.91%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial and operational performance with significant growth in key metrics and strategic investments driving future opportunities. However, challenges such as rising interest expenses and uncertainty in volume growth temper the overall optimism.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Operating profit increased by 16% with organic revenue growth of 11% and EPS up by 15%.
Net New Business Growth
Net new business was 4.2% for the year, accelerating to 4.8% in the second half, providing good momentum into 2025.
Strategic Investments and M&A
Invested $2.6 billion in CapEx and M&A, including acquisitions in the UK, Germany, France, and Norway, enhancing growth opportunities.
High Retention Rates
Improved retention rates, with second half retention above 96% and strong new business wins in sectors like B&I.
Positive Market Dynamics
Favorable outsourcing trends and market opportunities, especially in North America and Europe, supporting sustained growth.
Negative Updates
Increased Interest Expense
Interest expenses increased to $249 million due to higher interest rates and debt, projected to rise to $300 million in fiscal year '25.
Impact of Acquisitions and Disposals
Net impact of acquisitions and disposals expected to reduce profit in fiscal year 2025 by around $30 million.
Volume Growth Uncertainty
Volume growth moderated to around 2% and remains difficult to predict, with potential net positive but uncertain outlook.
Company Guidance
During the 2024 full year results call, Compass Group provided detailed guidance for fiscal year 2025, highlighting expectations for high single-digit operating profit growth driven by organic growth above 7.5%. The company anticipates continued margin improvement and net new business growth within a 4% to 5% range, marking an acceleration in the second half of 2024 to 4.8%. The guidance reflects pricing trends aligned with inflation at 2% to 3% and a likely net positive volume growth, despite a moderation to around 2% in 2024. The company also plans to sustain high revenue and profit growth across all regions, with a forecasted group operating profit increase of 16% to $3 billion. Interest expenses are expected to rise to $300 million due to acquisition activities, while the effective tax rate is projected to remain at 25.5%. Capital expenditure is anticipated to be around 3.5% of revenue. Compass Group's ongoing investment in its portfolio, including recent acquisitions such as Dupont Restauration in France, aims to unlock further growth opportunities and drive the company's long-term compounding shareholder returns.

Compass Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Compass exhibits strong financial health with robust revenue and profit growth, efficient cash flow management, and a stable balance sheet. While debt levels are manageable, improvements in equity proportion could enhance stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Compass has shown impressive revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a 35.36% increase. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 33.15% and a solid net profit margin of 3.34%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 6.05% and 8.12%, respectively, indicate strong operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects robust growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Compass's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is 20.56%, showcasing efficient utilization of equity capital. An equity ratio of 28.05% suggests a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy position, slight improvements in equity proportion could enhance stability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The company demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a significant operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.23. Free cash flow has grown by 22.18% from 2023 to 2024, supporting the company's operational and growth activities. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.59 further emphasizes positive cash flow generation relative to earnings.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue42.00B31.03B25.51B17.91B19.94B
Gross Profit13.93B1.95B1.48B962.00M3.76B
EBITDA3.41B2.74B2.35B1.28B915.00M
Net Income1.40B1.31B1.24B357.00M133.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets24.35B21.48B18.75B14.87B14.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments623.00M1.03B1.99B1.84B1.48B
Total Debt5.91B5.27B4.88B4.48B4.72B
Total Liabilities17.44B15.18B12.84B9.95B9.92B
Stockholders Equity6.83B6.26B5.87B4.89B4.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.23B1.83B1.31B943.00M205.00M
Operating Cash Flow3.13B2.17B1.60B1.17B914.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.49B-1.23B-874.00M-727.00M-1.10B
Financing Cash Flow-1.94B-2.09B-693.00M-152.00M1.28B

Compass Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2612.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2555.09
Positive
100DMA
2542.26
Positive
200DMA
2589.99
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
26.23
Negative
RSI
60.10
Neutral
STOCH
49.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2612 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2548.15, above the 50-day MA of 2555.09, and above the 200-day MA of 2589.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 26.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:CPG.

Compass Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
£44.31B38.6421.77%213.71%7.67%-15.09%
79
Outperform
£1.68B9.766.90%1.95%275.56%
74
Outperform
£273.62M6.1910.69%0.50%
68
Neutral
£1.43B51.9012.09%2.20%14.07%236.27%
67
Neutral
£980.20M10.93
4.50%-2.25%-18.24%
66
Neutral
£813.70M14.6316.38%1.96%3.70%57.10%
62
Neutral
$17.27B9.93-8.46%3.20%1.63%-26.06%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CPG
Compass
2,612.00
260.12
11.06%
GB:MAB
Mitchells & Butlers
276.00
-35.00
-11.25%
GB:SSPG
SSP Group plc
168.00
-11.16
-6.23%
GB:MARS
Marston's
43.00
1.30
3.12%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
740.00
10.69
1.47%
GB:DOM
Domino's Pizza
244.40
-67.37
-21.61%

Compass Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Compass Group to Acquire Vermaat Groep for €1.5 Billion
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced its agreement to acquire Vermaat Groep B.V., a premium food services business in Europe, for approximately €1.5 billion. This acquisition is expected to enhance Compass’s premium offerings in Europe, leveraging Vermaat’s strong market presence in the Netherlands, Germany, and France. The acquisition aligns with Compass’s strategy of expanding its footprint in Europe, a market valued at over €115 billion. The move is anticipated to be margin and EPS accretive in its first year and aims to achieve returns above the Group’s cost of capital in the medium term. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to bring significant growth opportunities and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Compass Group Upgrades FY25 Profit Guidance Amid Strong Growth and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced an upgrade to its FY25 profit guidance, driven by strong organic growth and better-than-expected performance in mergers and acquisitions. The company reported an 8.6% organic revenue growth in the third quarter, with North America showing particularly strong performance. Additionally, Compass has agreed to acquire Vermaat Groep B.V., a leading premium food services business in Europe, for approximately €1.5 billion, subject to regulatory approval. This acquisition is expected to enhance Compass’s market positioning and expand its footprint in the European food services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Compass Group Announces Sterling Equivalent of Interim Dividend
Neutral
Jul 15, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced the Sterling equivalent of its interim dividend for the financial year ending 30 September 2025, set at 16.7 pence per ordinary share. This conversion rate was determined based on the company’s forward contracts for Sterling currency, reflecting its strategic financial management and potentially impacting shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group PLC Announces Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced its total voting rights and share capital as of June 30, 2025, in compliance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The company has 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares, with 1,697,430,179 admitted to trading and 87,973,798 held in treasury, which do not have voting rights. This announcement is crucial for shareholders to calculate their interests in the company, especially those involved in the American Depositary Receipt Programme on the New York Stock Exchange.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group Announces Total Voting Rights and Share Capital Update
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced its total voting rights and share capital details as of June 30, 2025. The company has issued 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares, with 1,697,430,179 shares admitted to trading and 87,973,798 shares held in treasury. The total number of voting rights is 1,697,430,179, and treasury shares’ voting rights are suspended. This announcement is in line with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, and it provides shareholders with necessary information for regulatory compliance and interest notifications.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group PLC Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of May 31, 2025. The company has 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares, with 1,697,430,179 shares admitted to trading and 87,973,798 held in treasury. The announcement highlights the company’s compliance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, and the total voting rights figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their interest in the company. This update is significant for stakeholders as it provides clarity on the company’s share capital and voting rights, potentially impacting shareholder decisions and market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Compass Group Reports Strong Half-Year Results with Double-Digit Profit Growth
Positive
May 14, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced its half-year results for 2025, highlighting a strong performance with an 8.8% increase in revenue to $22.6 billion and an 11.6% rise in underlying operating profit. The company achieved double-digit profit growth driven by strong organic revenue and margin progression, supported by a robust client retention rate of over 96% and a significant pipeline of new business. The company continues to invest in growth through capital expenditure and mergers and acquisitions, while reshaping its portfolio by exiting non-core markets. With its resilient business model and sectorised approach, Compass is well-positioned to benefit from increasing outsourcing trends and expects continued profit growth ahead of revenue growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2300.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025