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Compass Group PLC (GB:CPG)
LSE:CPG

Compass (CPG) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:CPG

Compass

(LSE:CPG)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
2,202.00p
â–²(7.62% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/11/25
Compass's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which highlight robust profit growth and operational efficiencies. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation suggests the stock is relatively expensive. The conservative future growth guidance and potential leverage increase are additional concerns.
Positive Factors
Profit & Free Cash Flow
Sustained operating profit growth and a record $2bn free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, M&A, debt paydown, and shareholder returns. Strong FCF enhances financial flexibility and buffers the business against cyclical demand shocks over the medium term.
High Client Retention
Very high client retention and steady net new business underpin predictable recurring revenue and reduce acquisition pressure. Consistent multi-year organic growth in the 4–5% band supports stable revenue base and long-term margin durability through client stickiness.
Tech & AI Productivity
Ongoing technology and AI investments create structural cost and service advantages by improving productivity in operations, hiring, and sales. These efficiency gains translate into durable margin expansion potential and scalable processes as volumes grow across channels and regions.
Negative Factors
Recent Revenue Drop
An 18% revenue decline is a meaningful deterioration in top-line scale that can erode operating leverage and pressure margins if not reversed. Restoring consistent revenue growth is key to sustaining profit momentum and justifying ongoing investment spending over the medium term.
Rising Interest Costs
Escalating interest expense reduces net income and free cash flow available for reinvestment or dividends. If higher rates persist or debt grows with further acquisitions, interest burden may constrain financial flexibility and increase sensitivity to profit margin compression.
Near-term Leverage Risk
Planned acquisitions that push leverage above target raise medium-term refinancing and covenant risk and could limit strategic optionality. While management expects deleveraging by 2027, elevated leverage in 2026 heightens financial risk and may pressure credit metrics if performance weakens.

Compass (CPG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Compass Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass Group PLC operates as a food and support services company in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; and others. It serves business and industry; healthcare and senior living market; education; sports and leisure; and defense, offshore, and remote sectors. Compass Group PLC was founded in 1941 and is based in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass generates revenue primarily through the sale of its consumer packaged goods across multiple retail channels, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales to retailers, partnerships with distributors, and private label products. Additionally, Compass benefits from strategic collaborations with major grocery chains and food service providers, which expand its market reach and enhance brand visibility. The company's focus on innovation allows it to create unique products that cater to consumer trends, contributing to its overall profitability.

Compass Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong profit growth, successful new business and retention rates, and solid regional performance, particularly in the B&I segment. Investments in technology and AI are driving operational efficiencies. However, increased interest costs and potential leverage increases pose challenges. Future growth guidance is seen as conservative.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Profit Growth
Operating profit increased nearly 12% to over $3.3 billion, with free cash flow strong at $2 billion for the first time.
Net New Business and Client Retention
Net new business growth was 4.5%, with client retention over 96%, marking the fourth consecutive year within the 4% to 5% growth target.
Impressive Regional Performance
In North America, organic revenue increased by over 9%, with operating profit up nearly 11%. International organic revenue growth was nearly 8%.
B&I Segment Success
The Business and Industry segment was the best-performing sector with organic revenue up 11% and the highest net new business growth.
Technology and AI Integration
Investments in technology and AI have improved operational efficiencies and sales processes, with notable productivity gains in recruitment and customer interaction.
Negative Updates
Increased Interest Costs
Interest was $315 million due to higher debt from acquisitions, with an expected increase to $350 million in 2026.
Potential Leverage Increase
Net debt-to-EBITDA was 1.4x, with leverage likely to exceed target range in 2026 due to acquisitions, although deleveraging is expected by 2027.
Conservative Future Growth Guidance
Organic revenue growth guidance for 2026 is around 7%, considered conservative given the current underlying growth rate.
Company Guidance
In the fiscal year 2025, Compass delivered robust financial performance with an organic growth rate within its target range of 4% to 5%, complemented by a 12% increase in operating profit to over $3.3 billion and a record $2 billion in free cash flow. The company achieved a net new business growth of 4.5% and maintained a high client retention rate of over 96%. The effective tax rate was 25.5%, with expectations to remain consistent in 2026. Earnings per share increased by just over 11% in constant currency, and capital expenditures were 3.3% of revenue, projected to rise slightly to 3.5% in the following year. The group's organic revenue growth reached nearly 9%, with North America and International regions posting strong revenue and profit growth. Compass anticipates operating profit growth of approximately 10% in 2026, driven by organic revenue growth of around 7%, a 2% contribution from mergers and acquisitions, and ongoing margin improvements.

Compass Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Compass exhibits a solid financial foundation with strengths in profitability and cash flow management. Despite a recent revenue decline, the company's operational efficiency and stable balance sheet provide a buffer. Continued focus on revenue growth and debt management will be crucial for sustaining long-term financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Compass has shown strong revenue growth in recent years, although there was a notable decline of 18% in the most recent year. The company maintains healthy gross and net profit margins, with a consistent EBIT margin indicating operational efficiency. However, the recent revenue drop is a concern that needs addressing.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Return on equity is strong, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure, though there is room for improvement in reducing debt levels.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Compass demonstrates robust cash flow management, with positive free cash flow growth and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio. The company efficiently converts its earnings into cash, supporting its operational and strategic initiatives.
BreakdownSep 2025Sep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue35.29B42.00B31.03B25.51B17.91B
Gross Profit2.34B13.93B1.95B1.48B962.00M
EBITDA3.36B2.76B2.74B2.35B1.28B
Net Income1.43B1.40B1.31B1.24B357.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.84B24.35B21.48B18.75B14.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments427.11M623.00M1.03B1.99B1.84B
Total Debt5.19B5.91B5.27B4.88B4.48B
Total Liabilities14.08B17.44B15.18B12.84B9.95B
Stockholders Equity5.68B6.83B6.26B5.87B4.89B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.22B2.23B1.83B1.31B943.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.64B3.13B2.17B1.60B1.17B
Investing Cash Flow-1.92B-1.26B-1.23B-874.00M-727.00M
Financing Cash Flow-798.86M-1.53B-2.09B-693.00M-152.00M

Compass Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price2046.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2234.53
Positive
100DMA
2333.43
Negative
200DMA
2428.10
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
2.91
Negative
RSI
60.10
Neutral
STOCH
94.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CPG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2046 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2155.40, below the 50-day MA of 2234.53, and below the 200-day MA of 2428.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.91 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:CPG.

Compass Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
£401.55M19.794.82%2.81%6.94%9.99%
69
Neutral
£747.91M12.0517.81%1.50%4.52%50.39%
66
Neutral
£380.89M5.329.91%―-0.08%―
66
Neutral
£1.79B10.106.58%―3.87%18.31%
64
Neutral
£38.73B27.0221.77%2.34%6.44%29.42%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
48
Neutral
£1.61B-22.11-48.11%2.50%5.98%-371.14%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:CPG
Compass
2,253.00
-497.34
-18.08%
GB:FSTA
Fuller Smith & Turner
730.00
207.46
39.70%
GB:MARS
Marston's
57.80
15.80
37.62%
GB:MAB
Mitchells & Butlers
295.00
70.50
31.40%
GB:SSPG
SSP Group plc
191.20
27.01
16.45%
GB:JDW
J D Wetherspoon
705.00
121.31
20.78%

Compass Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Compass Group Sets Sterling Value of Final Dividend at 31.75p
Positive
Feb 10, 2026

Compass Group PLC has confirmed the sterling equivalent of its previously announced final dividend of 43.3 US cents per ordinary share, setting the payout at 31.75 pence per share for shareholders. The conversion reflects an exchange rate of US$1 to £0.7333, based on forward contracts executed over the five working days before the announcement, underscoring the company’s use of hedging to provide greater certainty over the sterling value of its dollar-denominated dividend.

By locking in exchange rates ahead of the 26 February 2026 payment date, Compass seeks to mitigate currency volatility that could affect investor income and dividend planning. The move gives shareholders clearer visibility on their cash returns in sterling and illustrates the financial management practices the group employs as a UK-listed company with US dollar-linked distributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Compass Group Wins Strong Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

Compass Group PLC reported that shareholders approved all resolutions at its Annual General Meeting held on 5 February 2026, including the receipt of the directors’ report and accounts, the directors’ remuneration report, a final dividend, and the re-election of all standing directors. Investors also backed the re-appointment of KPMG LLP as auditor, updates to the company’s employee share plans, authorities to allot and repurchase shares, and the disapplication of pre-emption rights, with all resolutions passing on a poll with strong majorities. The results, reflecting full voting participation of the share capital in issue (excluding treasury shares), reinforce board stability, support for the group’s capital allocation and governance framework, and continued shareholder confidence in Compass’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2985.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Compass Group Posts Strong Q1, Closes Vermaat Deal and Shifts LSE Trading to US Dollars
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

Compass Group delivered a robust first quarter to 31 December 2025, posting 7.3% organic revenue growth driven by strong performances in both North America and international operations, with Sports & Leisure and Business & Industry remaining the fastest-growing sectors and net new business growth in the 4–5% range supported by client retention above 96%. The group completed the $1.7bn acquisition of Dutch food services operator Vermaat, enhancing its capabilities and talent base in several European markets, invested $1.9bn in M&A overall in the quarter, and announced it will switch the trading currency of its London-listed shares from sterling to US dollars from 1 April 2026 to align with its reporting currency and reduce FX-related share price volatility, while reaffirming 2026 guidance for around 10% underlying operating profit growth through a mix of organic expansion, M&A contributions and margin progression.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2985.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Compass Group Delivers Strong Q1, Closes Vermaat Deal and Shifts LSE Trading to Dollars
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

Compass Group PLC reported a strong start to its 2026 financial year, with first-quarter organic revenue up 7.3% driven by broad-based growth across regions and sectors, particularly in Sports & Leisure and Business & Industry, and supported by net new business growth in the 4–5% range, client retention above 96%, and $4 billion of annualised new business wins. The company has completed the $1.7 billion acquisition of Dutch food services provider Vermaat, bolstering its capabilities and market position in continental Europe, invested a total of $1.9 billion in M&A in the quarter, and plans to switch the trading currency of its London-listed shares from sterling to US dollars from 1 April 2026 to better align with its reporting currency and reduce FX-related share price volatility, while reaffirming guidance for around 10% underlying operating profit growth in 2026 through a combination of organic growth, M&A and margin improvement.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2985.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 31 January 2026
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026

Compass Group PLC has reported its total voting rights and share capital as of 31 January 2026, confirming an issued share capital of 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares. Of these, 1,700,430,644 ordinary shares are admitted to trading, while 84,973,333 shares are held in treasury, with treasury share voting rights suspended. The company stated that the total number of voting rights attached to shares in circulation is 1,700,430,644, a figure that shareholders should use as the reference point for determining whether they must disclose holdings or changes in holdings under UK financial disclosure and transparency regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2985.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Other
Compass Group CFO Increases Stake With Purchase of 14,800 Shares
Positive
Jan 9, 2026

Compass Group PLC has disclosed that its Group Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director, Petros Parras, has acquired 14,800 ordinary shares in the company at a price of GBP 23.8380 per share on 9 January 2026 on the London Stock Exchange, bringing his total shareholding to 54,585 shares. The transaction increases the CFO’s equity stake in the business, modestly aligning senior management’s interests more closely with those of shareholders and signaling management confidence in the company’s prospects to the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Hold with a £2481.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group Confirms Total Voting Rights and Share Capital at Year-End 2025
Neutral
Jan 2, 2026

Compass Group PLC has confirmed its total issued share capital and voting rights as at 31 December 2025, in line with UK disclosure requirements. The company reported 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares in issue, of which 1,700,430,644 are admitted to trading and 84,973,333 are held in treasury with their voting rights suspended, resulting in a total of 1,700,430,644 voting rights. This disclosure provides shareholders and market participants with the denominator needed to assess and report changes in their ownership stakes under the Financial Conduct Authority’s transparency rules, supporting regulatory compliance and market transparency around Compass Group’s shareholding structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Hold with a £2481.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Compass Group Releases Annual Report 2025 and Schedules 2026 AGM
Neutral
Dec 17, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced the release of its Annual Report 2025 and the Notice for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, scheduled to take place on February 5, 2026, in London. These documents, available on the company’s website, outline key updates regarding the financial performance and strategic direction of the company, reflecting its adherence to regulatory compliance requirements and emphasis on providing transparency to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Hold with a £2481.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing Changes
Compass Group Director Joins Magnum Ice Cream’s Board Amidst New Listings
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced that Stefan Bomhard, a Non-executive Director at the company, has taken on a similar role at The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V., which has recently been listed on major stock exchanges including Euronext Amsterdam, the London Stock Exchange, and the New York Stock Exchange. This move could potentially enhance Compass Group’s strategic positioning by aligning with a newly listed company, potentially offering new insights and opportunities for collaboration within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2985.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Compass Group Announces Executive Share Awards and Incentive Plans
Positive
Dec 5, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced the vesting of conditional awards under its Long Term Incentive Plan 2018 for key executives, including Dominic Blakemore, Petros Parras, and Palmer Brown. These awards reflect the company’s commitment to aligning management incentives with performance targets. Additionally, the company granted new conditional awards under its Deferred Bonus Plan and Long Term Incentive Plan for the 2025-2026 period, indicating a strategic focus on long-term growth and shareholder value. These transactions highlight the company’s efforts to retain top talent and ensure alignment with its strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £31.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Compass Group PLC Announces Total Voting Rights and Capital Structure
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

Compass Group PLC has announced its total voting rights and capital structure as of November 30, 2025. The company has issued 1,785,403,977 ordinary shares, with 1,697,430,179 shares admitted to trading and 87,973,798 shares held in treasury. The total number of voting rights for the shares admitted to trading is 1,697,430,179, with each share carrying one vote. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interests in the company under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £2775.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Other
Compass Group PLC Announces Director Share Acquisition
Positive
Nov 25, 2025

Compass Group PLC announced a transaction involving the acquisition of shares by Leanne Wood, a non-executive director, as part of the company’s ordinary share capital. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects ongoing managerial investments in the company, potentially signaling confidence in its market positioning and future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Compass Group Reports Robust Financial Growth and Strategic Expansion in 2025
Positive
Nov 25, 2025

Compass Group PLC reported strong financial results for the year ending September 2025, with a 9.7% increase in statutory revenue and a 14.7% rise in operating profit. The company achieved an 11.7% growth in underlying operating profit, driven by an 8.7% organic revenue growth and a 10bps increase in operating margin. Notably, Compass secured new business worth $3.8 billion and maintained a high client retention rate of over 96%. The company invested $1.5 billion in capital expenditure and $1.3 billion in mergers and acquisitions, including the acquisition of Vermaat in Europe, to expand its market presence and capabilities. Looking ahead, Compass anticipates continued profit growth driven by organic revenue and strategic acquisitions, reinforcing its confidence in sustaining long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:CPG) stock is a Buy with a £30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass stock, see the GB:CPG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025